Finksy
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June 06, 2016, 03:42:38 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. |
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"There should not be any signed int. If you've found a signed int
somewhere, please tell me (within the next 25 years please) and I'll
change it to unsigned int." -- Satoshi
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elrippo
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June 06, 2016, 03:50:28 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race. I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry... |
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philipma1957
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Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
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June 06, 2016, 04:13:25 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race. I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry... look at the pattern: s-1 2.00 watts s-3 0.74 watts s-5 0.51 watts S-7 0.25 watts S-9 0.10 watts S-11 at worst goes to 0.07 based on the s-5 to s-7 I don't see a 0.02 any time soon. I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about that 0.07 s-11 unless avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine. The key for improvement is what does avalon bitfury or bw do . Since no one is near the .1 s-9 |
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jstefanop
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2093
Merit: 1396
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June 06, 2016, 05:16:11 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race. I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry... look at the pattern: s-1 2.00 watts s-3 0.74 watts s-5 0.51 watts S-7 0.25 watts S-9 0.10 watts S-11 at worst goes to 0.07 based on the s-5 to s-7 I don't see a 0.02 any time soon. I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about that 0.07 s-11 unless avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine. The key for improvement is what does avalon bitfury or bw do . Since no one is near the .1 s-9 BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now. They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff. |
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JaredKaragen
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Activity: 1848
Merit: 1165
My AR-15 ID's itself as a toaster. Want breakfast?
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June 06, 2016, 05:32:57 PM |
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They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.
^^^^ This is sooo true. They have the ability to take a lot of customers from bitmain if they would do it. |
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IconFirm
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June 06, 2016, 06:41:54 PM |
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Pool wise, it does hash in Kano.is pool. I'll try to take the screenshot of that in the late morning.
Can you do the same for p2pool please - seeing as you state that you support it in your Antpool OP? Thank you. |
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elrippo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
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June 06, 2016, 06:54:48 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race. I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry... look at the pattern: s-1 2.00 watts s-3 0.74 watts s-5 0.51 watts S-7 0.25 watts S-9 0.10 watts S-11 at worst goes to 0.07 based on the s-5 to s-7 I don't see a 0.02 any time soon. I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about that 0.07 s-11 unless avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine. The key for improvement is what does avalon bitfury or bw do . Since no one is near the .1 s-9 I did a simple calculus, guess for youreself  - First ROW = Type of Miner - Second ROW = Power Usage - Third ROW = Efficiency compared to the predessecor S1J/GH S3J/GH S5J/GH S7J/GH S9J/GH SN.A.J/GH
2 0,74 0,51 0,25 0,1 0,04
37,00% 68,92% 49,02% 40,00% 40,00%
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elrippo
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
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June 06, 2016, 06:55:54 PM |
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Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.
I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.
I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess. I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race. I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry... look at the pattern: s-1 2.00 watts s-3 0.74 watts s-5 0.51 watts S-7 0.25 watts S-9 0.10 watts S-11 at worst goes to 0.07 based on the s-5 to s-7 I don't see a 0.02 any time soon. I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about that 0.07 s-11 unless avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine. The key for improvement is what does avalon bitfury or bw do . Since no one is near the .1 s-9 BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now. They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff. I never saw a BW Machine in the wild... |
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RichBC
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June 06, 2016, 07:14:04 PM |
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BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now.
They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.
I think that BW have made a few external sales but have largely kept the Miners to themselves and for their Hash Investment Customers. Back in January when the new Miner first appeared the BW Pool was around 70PH they are now just under 200PH. Rich |
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fullzero
Legendary
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Activity: 1260
Merit: 1009
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June 06, 2016, 07:21:15 PM |
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Not only is the catch up (violation of Moore's Law over) but Moore's law itself has broken (we should have had 10nm Intel CPUs last year) The very first 10nm chips have only just been made. 10nm mass production capability is at least 1 year away.
Maybe Bitmain will make a BAMF 14 or 16nm chip that is significantly better, but I'm guessing not; it's much harder to design finFET than 28nm chips. This leads me to believe: the minor price reduction we will get on S9's after 2nd halving will be about it for the better portion of a year; as it was with the S5. I'm going to wait till 3rd batch before getting a mini farm of these.
It would be nice if Bitmain made a lower chip / power version, but the S9 is very optimized for them so I won't hold my breath.
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Finksy
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Activity: 1022
Merit: 1003
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June 06, 2016, 07:21:42 PM |
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I did a simple calculus, guess for youreself - First ROW = Type of Miner - Second ROW = Power Usage - Third ROW = Efficiency compared to the predessecor S1J/GH S3J/GH S5J/GH S7J/GH S9J/GH SN.A.J/GH
2 0,74 0,51 0,25 0,1 0,04
37,00% 68,92% 49,02% 40,00% 40,00%
Here is my estimate, from September 2014. Accurately predicted S5, S7 & S9 efficiency to within ~10%: Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:  Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns. When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15, 11.2e (-0.118*25)=0.586 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*25)=0.428 W/GHsWhen the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15: 11.2e (-0.118*32)=0.257 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*32)=0.195 W/GHsS9 released in May '16, or x=41 11.2e (-0.118*41)=0.0887 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*41)=0.0713 W/GHs6 months from now in December 2016, x=48 11.2e (-0.118*48)=0.0388 W/GHs 7.0376e (-0.112*48)=0.0326 W/GHs 1 Year from now in June 2017, x=54 11.2e (-0.118*54)=0.0191 W/GHs 7.0376e (-0.112*54)=0.0166 W/GHs |
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AriesIV10
Legendary
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Activity: 1260
Merit: 1006
Mine for a Bit
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June 06, 2016, 07:48:43 PM |
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A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI. Keep the Faith.
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HagssFIN
Legendary
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Activity: 2436
Merit: 1706
Electrical engineer. Mining since 2014.
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June 06, 2016, 08:04:30 PM |
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Don't you worry, Canaan Creative Avalon 7.0 might be on the way to soon compete with the overpriced Ant S9. From "Avalon ASIC users thread": Nice pick, that's interesting!  |
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aarons6
Legendary
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Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
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June 06, 2016, 08:07:27 PM |
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A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI. Keep the Faith.
if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase. |
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philipma1957
Legendary
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Activity: 4116
Merit: 7824
'The right to privacy matters'
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June 06, 2016, 08:19:28 PM |
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A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI. Keep the Faith.
if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase. boring!  but kind of true. I am holding 6.4 coins at the moment waiting to get more gear and price is shifting up. SINCE i have s-9's on order maybe I get lucky and coins shoot to 750. While I wait. |
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elrippo
Legendary
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1001
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June 06, 2016, 08:35:17 PM |
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I did a simple calculus, guess for youreself - First ROW = Type of Miner - Second ROW = Power Usage - Third ROW = Efficiency compared to the predessecor S1J/GH S3J/GH S5J/GH S7J/GH S9J/GH SN.A.J/GH
2 0,74 0,51 0,25 0,1 0,04
37,00% 68,92% 49,02% 40,00% 40,00%
Here is my estimate, from September 2014. Accurately predicted S5, S7 & S9 efficiency to within ~10%: Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic: Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns. When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15, 11.2e (-0.118*25)=0.586 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*25)=0.428 W/GHsWhen the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15: 11.2e (-0.118*32)=0.257 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*32)=0.195 W/GHsS9 released in May '16, or x=41 11.2e (-0.118*41)=0.0887 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112*41)=0.0713 W/GHs6 months from now in December 2016, x=48 11.2e (-0.118*48)=0.0388 W/GHs 7.0376e (-0.112*48)=0.0326 W/GHs 1 Year from now in June 2017, x=54 11.2e (-0.118*54)=0.0191 W/GHs 7.0376e (-0.112*54)=0.0166 W/GHs Pretty much the same as i said, but phil and sidehack don't really believe in this  |
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joeventura
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June 06, 2016, 08:35:46 PM |
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Between difficulty, electricity and 0.035 BTC a day @ 14TH it will take you a year to break even and three more years to double your money.
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bspurloc
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June 06, 2016, 08:46:18 PM |
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Oh man I missed the release of this!
I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol
Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.
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pixel375
Newbie
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Activity: 74
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June 06, 2016, 08:52:06 PM |
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Oh man I missed the release of this!
I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol
Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.
The EVGA SuperNOVA 1600 G2?? Does it have 9 PCI-e connectors?? Will it be able to power an S9? |
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Puffy23
Member
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Activity: 108
Merit: 11
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June 06, 2016, 08:53:16 PM |
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Between difficulty, electricity and 0.035 BTC a day @ 14TH it will take you a year to break even and three more years to double your money.
Trust me, few on this thread care to hear that sort of talk. Plus, the difficulty is going to drop 30% at the halving, didn't you know?! A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI. Keep the Faith.
if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase. Again, this kind of sound logic is usually met with cries of "selfish trader!" The only way to contribute to BTC is to mine, even at a BTC loss. |
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