Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/bitfinex-fails-to-perform-promised-audits-instead-they-have-a-shareholder-tell-everyone-its-all-965ae7037b5d
https://twitter.com/tetherprinter

This is bad.. I was really hoping they'd let an audit happen to prove their books were good.
As each day passes i really think they cooked their books using Tether.
Rather than mandating KYC maybe the govt should mandate audits on the exchanges.

Nice, he points out Zhao Dong as the possible identity of the single entity that has controlled the bitcoin price all the way from $200 to now by rigging the market on Bitfinex, painting the tape, spoofing walls, etc.  You people better hope it's the US govt rigging the price upwards instead as some type of cashless society slave system, because in Chinese culture, it's 100% acceptable to scam anyone who is not an immediate family member.  Hence the Zerohedge article claiming there are 30,000 Bernie Madoffs roaming around in China LOL.

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[Samarkand]

...

Also, the real question you need to ask yourself is:  Right now, the cost of production for metals is almost entirely determined by the price of oil denominated in dollars.  But what happens to the cost of production of metals when the price of oil is denominated entirely in gold and silver and dollars are refused as payment?  ...

Then you will appreciate the following two facts:
1. Venezuela (the country with the largest proven oil reserves) will issue a cryptocurrency called the PETRO in a few weeks
2. Russia (the country with the 8th-biggest oil reserves) will issue a cryptocurrency called the CryptoRuble in a year

Both countries are responsible for a big part of global oil exports. To me it looks more likely
that they will demand PETRO/CryptoRuble as a payment for oil than Gold/Silver payments. Gold/Silver payments
for mineral reserves are not happening anytime soon while cryptocurrency payments for mineral reserves
are just around the corner.

Both countries obviously are incentivized to do this, because it potentially enables them
to circumvent international sanctions. It is already known that you will be able to exchange
the PETRO for other cryptocurrencies. This will allow everyone of us to buy a few PETRO
backed by real barrels of Venezuelan oil.

...

Meanwhile Bitcoin will makes its way into the SDR basket.

The U.S. will adopt the Bitcoin Standard to back the dollar.

It will eventually happen!

The author of this book posits exactly the same prediction as Torque.
https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861

[afbitcoins]

R0ach. One of your recent comments was quite disingenuous, there was one in which you stated properties of money, such as fungibility and one or two others and showed how silver and gold are superior. But it leaped out to me you missed, probably on purpose, portability and divisibility from your bullet points. Two important ones that crypto is superior on conveniently swept under the carpet.

But anyway Crypto is new. It is not like fiat it is not like gold and silver, it is not like money. You are sounding more and more like someone bitter who jumped ship too early. I can remember when you were onboard the crypto bandwagon and singing a very different tune.

The genie is out the bottle. People have cottoned on to the fact that value doesn't have to be issued by the government or the bank, or even in a bit of shiny metal. That genie can't be put back in now.

Don't get me wrong, I love precious metal. What it represents and everything. I own precious metal. I might stack more on occasion. None of that is a reason to try and fight the tide.

By the way, I don't think calling the races of dark skinned people monkies will win many friends either. Knock that on the head my friend. Humanity is more than that and your race doesn't define who 'you' are.  

[realr0ach]

Then you will appreciate the following two facts:
1. Venezuela (the country with the largest proven oil reserves) will issue a cryptocurrency called the PETRO in a few weeks

There is virtually nobody on the planet that considers this move changing ANYTHING about the currency of Venezuela.  If it's "backed" by some sort of commodity, people will just demand delivery of the actual commodity in international trade.  So what has changed?  Absolutely nothing.  Anyway, the main purpose of nations being forced to go back to metals (besides the debt bubble collapsing all fiats) is to fix international trade so nobody can cheat and play currency wars.

[RejectedBanana]

Alrighty, this baby breakout is making me brave enough to call $10,000 our new floor. Time for a doubling floor update!

$10k marks the 12th doubling since Bitcoin was $2.50 in 2012.

From $2.5k to $5k took 77 days.
From $5k to $10k has taken 100 days, if $10k holds.

The shortest doubling floor was from $20 to $40 in 39 days.
The longest doubling floor was from $80 to $160 in 546 days during the Mt Gox era.

I'm guesstimating from trend ~90 days from now we might establish $20,000 as a new floor, sometime in April?

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. Traders prefer ATHs, I suppose. Too transient and susceptible to FUD for me.

Hopefully this is the last time we see quadruple digits!

[realr0ach]

But it leaped out to me you missed, probably on purpose, portability and divisibility from your bullet points.

Divisibility:

Why bother discussing divisibility?  It's obvious people have already used physical silver as money in the past.  You know, the stories from your grandparents about going to the movies with a nickel or something.  There is no shortage of granularity when factoring in gold, silver, and copper, so there's no point rehashing an experiment that has already been done.  Both options probably have more granularity than actually needed.

Portability:

I did not bring up portability because crapcoiners like to pretend that in international trade, one country would just accept an infinite amount of bitcoins from another country while they send them ALL of their natural resources and receive imaginary tokens in return.  That's not how international trade works.  They would flat out refuse the bitcoins, so the portability argument is way more complicated when real world goods have to be shipped from both countries no matter what and then bitcoin receives no real advantage in the end.  

Yes, it's faster to dump bitcoins than metals in some other scenarios, but I also do not consider that as being a positive due to things like the Paretto principle.  If all capital eventually congregates in a tiny number of people, which causes the whole capitalist system to collapse, then the facilitation of gigantic capital flights entering and leaving places constantly is going to cause that monopoly board game to come to a conclusion MUCH FASTER, then collapse and have to restart the game by violent revolution again.

Just like the speed of light is needed to act as a governer on the universe, some governers are beneficial in economics to retard globalization, force things more local, and allow local economies to exist at all.  Then you have absolutely retarded scenarios like if bitcoin was the world reserve currency, what if a rogue Chinese employee worked at the treasury of your govt and enters a few keystrokes sending your entire nation's GDP to the Guang Dong province?  What are you going to do?  Get Vitalik to roll back the chain?  The portability (aka facilitation of capital flight to subsidize globalization) is a negative in many ways for economics and security.  Pretty obvious no nation is going to use such a system as their reserve currency either if one person going insane or comitting espionage can just steal your entire treasury with a mouse click.

[Toxic2040]

@mfort312   extrapolating those doubling floor dates and time periods could be quite interesting.  Instead of 90 what would 183(or any of the other previous numbers)days look like. Looking the exact dates is probably also worth investigation.

[sirazimuth]

By the way, I don't think calling the races of dark skinned people monkies will win many friends either. Knock that on the head my friend. .  

well apparently he won you as one , eh?

[thrax]

https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/bitfinex-fails-to-perform-promised-audits-instead-they-have-a-shareholder-tell-everyone-its-all-965ae7037b5d
https://twitter.com/tetherprinter

This is bad.. I was really hoping they'd let an audit happen to prove their books were good.
As each day passes i really think they cooked their books using Tether.
Rather than mandating KYC maybe the govt should mandate audits on the exchanges.

The Chinese government tried doing that to its exchanges, so some of their exchanges moved abroad to avoid mandatory KYC. It's impossible to find out where half the exchanges are based, or who runs them anyway.

[jojo69]

As a ginger, the spectacle of people arguing about the RELATIVE melanin content of their epidermis has always stood out as patently absurd.

[afbitcoins]

By the way, I don't think calling the races of dark skinned people monkies will win many friends either. Knock that on the head my friend. .  

well apparently he won you as one , eh?

Implying I share the same attitude?

Huh?

Confusing because I didn't write </sarc> ?

Or maybe I really think black people are like monkies and was giving a subtle hint?

Or you just a bit too pedantic?

Such a minefield

[El duderino_]

$20,000>>>$30,000>>>$50,000>>>$100,000    WEEEEEEE

Here's where you learn there's no such thing as easy money because if bitcoin actually was $100,000, probably every single person holding any would immediately sell everything, which is why it's not going to happen.  Even Shlomo Nakamoto the NSA would be dumping the premine coins on exchange.

No ! You easy minded boy... every one that hodl btc and see 100k prices Will sell of a few and keep hodling the rest of it like allways from 100$ to 10k or 10k to 100k don’t make any diffrence in hodlers minds Just riding the waves en never want to sell !!

[jbreher]

Three drives? Is this the return of silver moon and three sad kittehs?

[realr0ach]

By the way, I don't think calling the races of dark skinned people monkies will win many friends either. Knock that on the head my friend. .  

well apparently he won you as one , eh?

It's a good strategy when you have groups of people attempting to act as "white people stalkers" to follow them around and act as parasites on them.  Whites and asians seem to build the best civilizations, while most people regard white women as looking the best.  So the monkeys try to get into the white civilization to displace the white inhabitants and take their stuff + women.  You would need to be a super cuckold to want that to happen, so it seems like a good idea calling them monkeys to let them know they're not wanted to keep them out.  

[afbitcoins]

But it leaped out to me you missed, probably on purpose, portability and divisibility from your bullet points.

Divisibility:

Why bother discussing divisibility?  It's obvious people have already used physical silver as money in the past.  You know, the stories from your grandparents about going to the movies with a nickel or something.  There is no shortage of granularity when factoring in gold, silver, and copper, so there's no point rehashing an experiment that has already been done.  Both options probably have more granularity than actually needed.

Portability:

I did not bring up portability because crapcoiners like to pretend that in international trade, one country would just accept an infinite amount of bitcoins from another country while they send them ALL of their natural resources and receive imaginary tokens in return.  That's not how international trade works.  They would flat out refuse the bitcoins, so the portability argument is way more complicated when real world goods have to be shipped from both countries no matter what and then bitcoin receives no real advantage in the end.  

Yes, it's faster to dump bitcoins than metals in some other scenarios, but I also do not consider that as being a positive due to things like the Paretto principle.  If all capital eventually congregates in a tiny number of people, which causes the whole capitalist system to collapse, then the facilitation of gigantic capital flights entering and leaving places constantly is going to cause that monopoly board game to come to a conclusion MUCH FASTER, then collapse and have to restart the game by violent revolution again.

Just like the speed of light is needed to act as a governer on the universe, some governers are beneficial in economics to retard globalization, force things more local, and allow local economies to exist at all.  Then you have absolutely retarded scenarios like if bitcoin was the world reserve currency, what if a rogue Chinese employee worked at the treasury of your govt and enters a few keystrokes sending your entire nation's GDP to the Guang Dong province?  What are you going to do?  Get Vitalik to roll back the chain?  The portability (aka facilitation of capital flight to subsidize globalization) is a negative in many ways for economics and security.  Pretty obvious no nation is going to use such a system as their reserve currency either if one person going insane or comitting espionage can just steal your entire treasury with a mouse click.

I don't think anyone is claiming bitcoin is ready for that kind of international settlements yet. But if it grows to that kind of maturity I'm sure there will be safegaurds in place to stop the noob mistake. In the meantime I can travel with an amount of bitcoin much easier than an amount of gold or especially silver, if you talking any sizeable quantity.

[Enjel]

One thing that I haven’t fully understood with BTC price fluctuations I am hoping someone might have some theories on.

So the price of BTC against the dollar seems to fluctuate during these climbs and dips by percentages of quite a large magnitude (sometimes greater than 50%!).
Would it be correct to assume that during its earlier periods it would have been easier to manipulate the price due to the fact that
A: fewer players were in the game and would have owned larger amounts of BTC and
B: the dollar price was lower making it easier to buy larger amounts of BTC.?

Now with further distribution of BTC can we not assume that more people have smaller stashes (BLB aside!)?
Shouldn’t this make larger dumps less frequent?
Also large buys are a lot harder since it would require much larger sums of dollars to move the price up?

Yet we still see massive swings in the price. Can someone tell me why/how?

My explanation for large price fluctuations is that a lot of Bitcoin money is thin-air money. Unlike gold/silver/oil, or "standard" commodities, whose prices are dense due to a lot of buyers willing to buy at or just below market price, there are few buyers at the market price for Bitcoin and other cryptos.

I think I did a calculation that if 1% of all BTCs were sold at once, then that would tank the price by like 10-15%.
You don't see that with very established commodities though (at least I don't think you do).

I could be wrong though.

[elg]

just did put someone on ignore for the first time ever

[flynn]

just did put someone on ignore for the first time ever

You don't even have to tell who.

[realr0ach]

You don't even have to tell who.

Are you trying to claim this statement isn't true?  It's probably the most factually accurate statement ever written:

It's a good strategy when you have groups of people attempting to act as "white people stalkers" to follow them around and act as parasites on them.  Whites and asians seem to build the best civilizations, while most people regard white women as looking the best.  So the monkeys try to get into the white civilization to displace the white inhabitants and take their stuff + women.  You would need to be a super cuckold to want that to happen, so it seems like a good idea calling them monkeys to let them know they're not wanted to keep them out.  

[Neo_Coin]