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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25466887 times)
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explorer
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January 26, 2018, 12:16:22 AM
Merited by Ibian (1)

In the end, it's all a gamble, I just like the odds better on some of them that few people see for now (then everyone else will see it and have their "Napster" moment, that one dies and gets "torrented", but the world changes anyway.)

Mostly is that latecomers feel that btc can hardly make another 10X+ from current levels, so they end buying lottery tickets priced $1 or less to have their chance for a 100-bagger, without even looking at the monetary base or any other technical spec of their tickets.

I feel like this is the *real* reason. The delusion these people feel is trying to justify the "reasons" why they are doing it, but they can't ignore the underlying reality.

Also, will it surprise them when Bitcoin does indeed do another 10X or 100X? It will, the only factor is how long it will take. Bitcoin is held by < 0.01% of the world population. Not every millionaire in the U.S. has any bitcoin. Wall Street hasn't even begun to up-leverage Bitcoin, because they don't have a way to do it effectively yet.

  Projecting one's own motives and beliefs/understanding onto the great unwashed is I think the most common delusion among (otherwise?) intelligent people.  In this echo chamber,  BTC is best because technical analytical blah blah, where clearly the world at large cares not at all.  It is the $$ and <b> adoption of these uninformed and unintelligent masses that is required to make 'progress'.  Catering to them may be a sell out, but it is undeniably effective. </b>

This. Some days I sit in disbelief at the ignorance of what can be refered to as "the masses".  The intelligent to  stupid ratio seems tipped in an unfavorable direction.

It often seems as if everything in day to day living is based on the simple task of manipulation.  I say "simple" because it often seems way too easy to sway the opinion of "the average person" or make them think they need something that may be completely worthless.

Ty Warner built a net worth of $2.5 billion by selling animals stuffed with fucking beads.  Hell... the guy who sold Snuggies even made a cool $200 million.  No one needs a beanie baby or a snuggie but, they were manipulated into believing there was a need for them.

Crypto is overrun with everyone and thier cousin making alt coins and promoting them. Shit... the other day I saw a coin called "DeezNuts" https://deeznuts.in. I wonder often if as we approach mass adoption that marketing and advertising will push an undeserving coin with poor tech ahead of Bitcoin as "the masses" gobble it up.  Sure the tech behind it might be shit but, that's not always never, or rarely the most important thing to "the masses".

Or maybe I'm just paranoid.

For your consideration:

Think on how stupid the average person is.  Now grok the fact that fully half of the population is dumber than that.  It is somewhat scary.  Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean they are not out to get you.
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January 26, 2018, 12:50:23 AM
Merited by Torque (1), Last of the V8s (1)

I feel like this is the *real* reason. The delusion these people feel is trying to justify the "reasons" why they are doing it, but they can't ignore the underlying reality.

Also, will it surprise them when Bitcoin does indeed do another 10X or 100X? It will, the only factor is how long it will take. Bitcoin is held by < 0.01% of the world population. Not every millionaire in the U.S. has any bitcoin. Wall Street hasn't even begun to up-leverage Bitcoin, because they don't have a way to do it effectively yet.

That's one reason, and also a major one. Sometimes it's not the main reason. Let's take an example. One of these alts wants to recreate the equivalent of a decentralized netflix or youtube. Without thinking twice, the first to adopt this tech would be pirates and porn star cam girls. Then some rapper who names himself after half a currency is going to accept the alt as payment for his latest album.

So there are people backing this coin and don't care about the price, they just want to support it. Why? There are distributed computing projects out there with NEGATIVE ROI such as calculating prime numbers (a mersenne was recently found), or cures for cancer, or searching for extra terrestrial life.

Like I said before, someone has to buy the pizza.

A 1000X increase is just a side effect when everyone wants free HBO and nothing can stop them.


And don't forget there are other payment processors that accept alts, some are even embedded in ios and android wallets, some are coinpayments compatible. There are open source alternatives to bitpay.

A specific example is a seller of flash hiders on gunbroker.com is accepting GUNcoin as payment. Weedcoin, Potcoin, Dopecoin, Cannabiscoin, they are catering to the medical marijuana industry. Some have celebrity endorsement. So ... let's see what happens in the next few months or years with all these alts.

Disclaimer: I have some GUN because I like firearms. I don't have Potcoin because I have no intention of buying.
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January 26, 2018, 12:53:09 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), Biro Bob (1)



On a different.. wall observing kinda note, the UK annual self assessment tax MUST be paid by January 31st. I’m sure many people that spent well in 2017 (knowing they had massive BTC profits to fall back on) didn’t really plan ahead so needed to cash out a few Bitcoins to pay their tax bill... I’m one of these people. I cashed out at £10600 (approx $14k) but I’m sure others have been holding to the last minute hoping.... it goes a bit higher than now...



31st Jan payment deadline is for tax year 16-17, so CGT on sales before last April

Edit: so your tax is due Jan 2019. No rush.

This wasn’t my Capital Gains. This was just the tax on my self employment that I frivolously spent on hookers and blow rather than saving for my tax bill. I have CGT to look forward to next year.

Sorry, didn’t realise you were still feigning the need to work. And you misspelt “well” as “frivolously”.
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January 26, 2018, 01:53:46 AM
Merited by Dabs (1)

I am so very, very bored.

Malaise sets in.

... stares out from behind a cold, frosted window. alone in the darkness. all is quiet in the wilderness. the herd is safe and sound. slow exhalations build up condensate on the window. a hand reaches out from beneath a swaddling blanket and aimlessly draws trails. the forefinger begins to chill.


How can you be bored?  Is there nothing that you want to learn?  I can't remember the last time there were enough hours in the day.  Giving up that working BS helped.  Not true.  It's worse now.  Better rethink retirement, old man!
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January 26, 2018, 01:55:45 AM

I am so very, very bored.

Malaise sets in.

... stares out from behind a cold, frosted window. alone in the darkness. all is quiet in the wilderness. the herd is safe and sound. slow exhalations build up condensate on the window. a hand reaches out from beneath a swaddling blanket and aimlessly draws trails. the forefinger begins to chill.

I have been doing my homework about the CME futures expiry tomorrow. Apparently they will either make bitcoin pump, dump, or do nothing.

Infofront says possibly down, or more probably damp squib. Fluidjax says possibly up, or possibly damp squib.

If it's a damp squib prepare to be very, very, very bored tomorrow.



CME first contract closes tommorow....

Strap-in or damp squib?   I dunno.



This guy makes a good case for why the CME futures expiry tomorrow will be a nonevent: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7syd2c/expiring_futures_tomorrow_not_so_fast/

Quote
...
Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...

TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there.
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January 26, 2018, 02:05:39 AM

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January 26, 2018, 02:16:42 AM
Merited by RejectedBanana (1)

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January 26, 2018, 02:20:29 AM
Merited by explorer (1)

I am so very, very bored.

Malaise sets in.

... stares out from behind a cold, frosted window. alone in the darkness. all is quiet in the wilderness. the herd is safe and sound. slow exhalations build up condensate on the window. a hand reaches out from beneath a swaddling blanket and aimlessly draws trails. the forefinger begins to chill.

Last time I was bored I joined a Facebook crypto group.

Do yourself a favor and... don't do that.
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January 26, 2018, 02:22:44 AM

How can you be bored?  Is there nothing that you want to learn?  I can't remember the last time there were enough hours in the day.  Giving up that working BS helped.  Not true.  It's worse now.  Better rethink retirement, old man!

Naw, brother. It's not like that. Just introspective hell right now, with everything coming up, and my partner being out of town.

Still have some work I need to trudge through, and just can't find the motivation lately.

Know what I mean ? Winter blahs starting to get to me. Can't wait to move out of Montana end of March. Hate the snow.

Moving further South.

Looking forward to pursuing passion projects, that I really can't start on now, for... reasons.

Ya, I hear that.  Go rip the Porsche around in the snow.  That will raise the heart rate, focus, and elicit a YEE HAW at the very least  Tongue
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January 26, 2018, 02:24:54 AM

I am so very, very bored.

Malaise sets in.

... stares out from behind a cold, frosted window. alone in the darkness. all is quiet in the wilderness. the herd is safe and sound. slow exhalations build up condensate on the window. a hand reaches out from beneath a swaddling blanket and aimlessly draws trails. the forefinger begins to chill.

Last time I was bored I joined a Facebook crypto group.

Do yourself a favor and... don't do that.

Save time, and just stick the pencil in your eye beforehand.  Then you can avoid the whole fecesbook thing, and skip straight to the pain management.
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January 26, 2018, 02:54:29 AM

Back over $11,500 again. This can only mean one thing... BobLawblaw didn't put his massive sell wall at $11.5k.
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January 26, 2018, 03:18:30 AM


Naw, brother. It's not like that. Just introspective hell right now, with everything coming up, and my partner being out of town.

Still have some work I need to trudge through, and just can't find the motivation lately.

Know what I mean ? Winter blahs starting to get to me. Can't wait to move out of Montana end of March. Hate the snow.

Moving further South.

Looking forward to pursuing passion projects, that I really can't start on now, for... reasons.

My advice is not to go too far. It is a known fact that people who lived most of their lives up north sometimes don't last in the South.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/keep-it-cool-hot-weather-advice-older-people

I am thinking to move in the opposite direction (from TX to CO or OR) in due course.
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January 26, 2018, 03:26:20 AM

So my banks just complained. Apparently churning too much money in and out of exchanges has them worried shitless that the taxman will complain. Might have to register as a business to keep trading at the current levels of volume. Not sure I wanna deal with that shit. Especially the part where I have to give up half the profit. Blah.
To me, this is worrying more than annoying. Any hint of coordination among banks? How long between the two complaints?
If you only had money coming in and no money going out they probably wouldnt have a problem with it.

This is why we need something like Tether but which is reliable.

What do you mean you have to give half your profit? I know already as a daytrader I have to give up 40% of my profit every year in income taxes. I thought registering as a business would actually prevent taxes until you took out money (paid yourself) to spend it.
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January 26, 2018, 03:29:02 AM

I thought registering as a business would actually prevent taxes until you took out money to spend it.

Corporates pay corporate tax rates on profits.  You might get a credit on your income tax for dividends that have already been taxed at the corporate level depending on where you live.

The important part about corporates is you only pay tax on profits.  Individuals pay tax on revenue and then have to fight for deductions. 
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January 26, 2018, 03:31:45 AM

So my banks just complained. Apparently churning too much money in and out of exchanges has them worried shitless that the taxman will complain. Might have to register as a business to keep trading at the current levels of volume. Not sure I wanna deal with that shit. Especially the part where I have to give up half the profit. Blah.
To me, this is worrying more than annoying. Any hint of coordination among banks? How long between the two complaints?
If you only had money coming in and no money going out they probably wouldnt have a problem with it.

This is why we need something like Tether but which is reliable.

What do you mean you have to give half your profit? I know already as a daytrader I have to give up 40% of my profit every year in income taxes. I thought registering as a business would actually prevent taxes until you took out money (paid yourself) to spend it.


IF I was to do what you do..it would be 40% (my income bracket with mining etc) and 10% STATE Income Tax..so for income OR capital gains my state adds 10% tax

this is probably why you  see some folk say 50% tax rate....(so I mine its 40% tax rate and 10% state tax..if I sell crypto it is 40% capital gains and 10% tax rate (state

calls it income) so either/or I lose 50% on ANY crypto I make and/or use if less than 1 year and a day ....

annoying.....

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January 26, 2018, 03:33:43 AM

wow

we are clearing TXs down to 10 satoshi/byte if I am reading the chart right
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January 26, 2018, 03:35:22 AM

Corporates pay corporate tax rates on profits.

Except pass-through corporates that pay personal tax rates on profits.
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January 26, 2018, 03:35:29 AM

wow

we are clearing TXs down to 10 satoshi/byte if I am reading the chart right
Yes, it's been going on for a while now. So if you still have Bitcoins in non-SegWit addresses, or want to consolidate some of your UTXOs into the same address (so your privacy isn't affected), now would be a good time!
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January 26, 2018, 03:39:15 AM

Corporates pay corporate tax rates on profits.

Except pass-through corporates that pay personal tax rates on profits.

And partnerships, trusts and more exotic birds.
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January 26, 2018, 03:39:53 AM
Merited by Dabs (1)

So I have been thinking about the Lightning Network for a bit as far as running a node goes.

From my limited understanding of it, if you are the node between 2 people you basically fund the transactions going through, they sign a transaction to you, you sign a transaction to them for the equal amount each (so you need twice the amount for the channel), then throughout the length of time of the channel being open you sign transactions back and forth with the people connected to your node then settle everything at the end or whenever someone wants to settle the balance.

Firstly, is that somewhat accurate? I am sure it is super complicated beyond that, otherwise I would know it better.

My question (if that is accurate) is, could I sign every possible transaction for each node connecting to me offline, then only move the signed transactions to a hot database that I pull the transactions from as needed?

For example, A and B connect to me with 1 BTC each. I copy their public key to an offline machine and have it generate a million transactions each (or however many are needed) to account for every possible signed transaction then transfer that to a computer online.

Also, if this is possible, what prevents me from signing all of those transactions then spending the bitcoins somewhere else. Or is this what SegWit fixed?
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