Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RoomBot]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        


09/03/2018 Roombot


WHY SO MANY OFF YOU THINKING PRICE WILL BE ONDER 8K END THIS MONTHY??  WHILE SO MANY OFF YOU GUESS ALL THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE  DATES WHEN THIS LIST CAME OUT

Not I, however, $24,777 seems so far away....           

[1560983471]

1560983471

[1560983471]

1560983471

[jbreher]

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks JJG for your thorough answer on selling on the rise and buying on the decreases!

I am also in an accumulation phase right now. The bottom line for me is that I'm long-term for this market, and my goal is just to accumulate as much coin as possible, despite price movements (though it can seem quite fruitless when your portfolio value drops in the short term, despite your accumulation).

Believe me, I can relate to folks who consider themselves to be in a BTC accumulation stage under current BTC price conditions because I was in a similar situation (pickle) in late 2013 and through 2014. 

In retrospect, some folks may argue that I was more fortunate in my position and situation because BTC prices went down throughout a vast majority of that whole 2014 period, yet the truth of the matter remains that no one really knew where or when BTC prices would bottom, and such downward and flat BTC price performance did persist during a large majority of 2015, too. 

During my 2014 BTC accumulation phase, I did not sell any BTC, and even though I considered myself to largely be out of my BTC accumulation phase by the end of 2014, yet it still took me nearly another year (until the end of 2015) before I started to sell some of my BTC and to take a more sophisticated approach to my BTC holdings that was more focused on maintenance, even though it also allowed for continued accumulation, too.   

Sometimes, it is also easier to describe what is happening in retrospect, and by the way, I have a "friend" who  is just entering into BTC, and who does not have a lot of money nor a lot of BTC. 

That friend is considerably in a BTC accumulation phase that could take a few years to play out because that person is much younger than me, and by the time I got into BTC, I already had accumulated quite a bit of capital in other areas.  Anyhow, for my friend, I am attempting to suggest to buy on the way down and sell on the way up, which would be attempting to employ a more sophisticated than what I had done for myself 3-4 years ago.  Therefore, in this newly applied case, the buy on the way down is way more lopsided than the sell on the way up - which means that the attempt at that system buys way more BTC on the way down than it sells on the way up.   Therefore, the selling of BTC on the way up remains small, but allows getting into a kind of practice to prepare for both ways and to attempt to take advantage of BTC's largely anticipated and continued price volatility.  Therefore, such lopsided accumulation of BTC practice that allows for selling too is more sophisticated than a buy only strategy, while still attempting to focus on and prioritize BTC accumulation.   

[jbreher]

These are the bad posts, jbreher.  

Aw, darn.

But are they really?

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.

I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.

I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

Now we get to the "bad boy" part.

My (perhaps flawed) understanding is that in the current implementation, all nodes broadcast all channel state changes to all other nodes. This is necessary, of course, as nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous path route discovery.

That's incorrect. Nobody yet knows how to do decentralized permissionless anonymous OPTIMAL path route discovery. Heuristic methods with stored forward tables do work reasonably well. Several mesh-like networks work, without a single tear about being suboptimal.

Well, yes. If everyone broadcasts every state change to everyone else... but that's not much of a workable solution, is it? Actually, it sounds an awful lot like the 'solution' I described.

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).

I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

Of course - the clueless developers! D'oh, what an unforgivable oversight! The system they implemented is doomed. They chose the SAN (Spam All Network) algorithm for both route discovery and node state update. They slept during their networking lessons, or was it calculus? So they failed to notice that bandwidth grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This way, it's almost as bad as if one increased the block size. But who would ever think of that?

Hyperbole duly noted. Be that as it may, do you have any evidence that suggests that my understanding is incorrect?

Out of sarcasm: I'll never believe the protocol broadcasts data mindlessly.

Who are you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? (IOW, from what you write, I cannot see that you know any different)

[sirazimuth]

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

You and everyone else.
That idjut owz is the very definition of an annoying btctalk wo poster...

[jbreher]

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.

Indeed. We may need to temper expectations due to what seems to be a potential emerging halvening cycle. IOW, perhaps a completely random sampling of the daily returns is useful for predictions below a four-year-ish granularity. Though this could easily be offset by the first inlking of widespread, news-cycle driven FOMO.

[jbreher]

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.

[vanobe]

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.

It's a higher low than the drop to  four digits last week.

This time last year I was ecstatic it had gone above $1000. I can live with a crash to 10x that price this year.

[pera]

Here is a prediction: Bitcoin is going to crash in about one hour, hodl on to your butts!

Disclaimer: I reserves the right to make (at least) a thousand more "Bitcoin is going to crash" predictions in the near future.

[Searing]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

[adaseb]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.

[True Myth]

Haven't checked this thread in a few days... I skimmed through a page or two but... pretty sure I saw what looked like jbreher going bullish on BTC. What else did I miss!?

Also... where are those optimism charts.  Could use one right about now.

[vanobe]

Dammit that’s much better than mine.  You win.

na not mine
go on anyway

Knock knock?

who's there?

Satoshi

Satoshi who?

Craig Wright

If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.

Maybe he put all Satoshi's coins in an ethereum smart contract BTC Trust in 2010. He obviously can't access the coins until that ethereum smart contract matures. He can buy a lambo collection after that.

[jbreher]

Knock knock?

branch prediction!

who's there?

chuckle-worthy

[jbreher]

We’re in the cross-over transition phase between a correction and the next impulse up.

We are precisely right in the middle of nowhere.

Directly above the very center of the earth.

[True Myth]

Directly above the very center of the earth.

Officially, the most accurate estimation of the day.

[JayJuanGee]

I think that in this context the BIG words of, "apparently not" only signify that BTC price had been continuing to have downwards price pressures in spite of news that should be unambiguously positive, in terms of BTC fundamentals.

That's what I assumed as well. My point was that they should say that and stop making people assume.

I don't proclaim to be immuned from getting in unnecessary battles and quibbling - yet it is quite common that posters do not explain some of what they mean, and we do not necessarily attribute bad motive to them, unless they have a history of showing such bad motives (including purposefully attempting to mislead).  It seems that I did not read as much ambiguity as you had seemed to into that sentence.

At the time the price was changing +-$100; negligible compared to what we've been dealing with the last few days and weeks. Even now, the price is still within ~$100 of this morning; apparently the news/non-news is not having all that great an effect on price as they implied.

Of course, each of us can come to differing conclusions about the significance of various events, whether those events are related to news or momentum or a combination of such.

Further, when we are in the middle of a price correction, it can be hell-a difficult to determine exactly when such price correction is over and whether support is slowly being widdled away.  A few days ago, I was beginning to feel some confidence that BTC prices had risen enough to bring us out of the severities of this current correction that is testing $9k/$10k support, and surely, I was thinking that we were getting close to breaking above $13k and getting above $13k would be a kind of sign and also distance us a bit from $9k/$10k striking distance - but in the end, we are back and within fairly close proximity of such $9k/$10k support.

I have no fucking idea if we are close to breaking through such $9k/$10k support, but the longer that we are down here, then there can be questions and doubts regarding whether $9k/$10k support is going to hold.

It's just annoying seeing "click-bait-esque" posts on here that the user adds nothing to the conversations.

Hahahahahaha...  We are not going to get rid of any of that any time soon, and seems like infofront has a decently tolerating moderation style that errs on the side of allowing for posts, which I think works pretty well for this particular thread.

I'd much rather read through longer posts (like yours or even, dare I say it, r0ach's haha), at least I can try and glean something from them.

I gotta try to recognize humor in a couple of respects, here.

1) There are probably fewer than 5% of readers of this thread that would actually admit to liking either the quantity or the quality of my posts, so you are likely an anomaly in that regard.

2) I feel a bit of unease to be placed into any kind of camp with the roachster, but I suppose if Roachity and I were to go to a bar for beers, perhaps we would be able to finish one or two beers before one or the other of us would have to exit because we just could not take the togetherness any longer.  Sound like a set up for a joke:  "Roach and JJG walk into a bar ...... blah blah blah........ OMG"

If I wanted useless posts, I'd go to r/btc. Oh well, my ignore list grows (like it matters, I'm a nobody here :p).

I've never put anyone on ignore.  I guess I would rather just browse through the posts that are not to my liking rather than to eliminate them.   This thread does tend to be so prolific though that ignoring could become time-management helpful.

_{Edit: The next 24 hours are critical}

This whole fucking week could be critical, but it is so difficult to say.  I believe that BTC trade volume continues at a high enough level that we are not too likely to experience boring any time in the near future.  Accordingly, it will remain interesting to witness whether we 1) break below $9k to $10k support, 2) get caught in a kind of $9500 to $12,500 territory for many days, or 3) significantly break above $13k... Me thinks that it could take several days to play out beyond the next 24 hours.

[JayJuanGee]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

[edited out]


WHY SO MANY OFF YOU THINKING PRICE WILL BE ONDER 8K END THIS MONTHY??  WHILE SO MANY OFF YOU GUESS ALL THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE  DATES WHEN THIS LIST CAME OUT

Looks like your caps lock is stuck, MICGOOSSEN.          

Of course, factors change over one month or two months time, and therefore, what is reasonable and/or probable changes, too.  There is no absolute inevitable price direction or predetermined outcome in regards to the future, and that is one of the reason that any kind of precise prediction game is going to end up being largely luck, and maybe only a sliver of skill or even the fantastical concept of prescience.

-if the capLock wasn’t on you would’t see the writing under the list ....
- and offcourse its a dumb luck game.., everybody with a little bit of good mind knows we have to buy BTC for the long term hodl and not to see the price every day and set 1000 of sell orders and buy orders and.... Just buy and When possible to afford more Just to buy and hodl as well.., maybe every week month same date Just buy no matter what the price is @ that time.... and after good learning Reading maybe buy 10 of the 100 % in other currency’s
- ONLY i have the same Sickness of checking the price constantly knowing that i’m Not Going to sell but Thats Just my problem ;-)  ( while i tel all my friends buy don’t look Just buy When possible)

O.k.  Fair enough.   I cannot argue with a strategy that seems to emphasize dollar cost averaging and HODLing; however, I do believe that there could be a certain point of time in which you also feel comfortable selling some BTC, and likely that point is going to differ for different peeps. 

In retrospect, I recall that I had established my initial accumulation goal for BTC to become about 10% of my quasi-liquid investment assets, and I believe that I became more motivated to play around and to sell some of my BTC once the value of my BTC (both through accumulation and price appreciation) crossed over 15% of the value of my quasi-liquid investments.  I did not really stop dollar cost average investing; however, I became a lot less gunshy about selling.  Further, we know that BTC prices have gone through the fucking roof - with a 78x increase, and still largely bouncing around in a 35x to 50x appreciation (using $250 as a bouncing off beginning value).   So much crazy ass BTC price appreciation can also cause greater willingness to sell some of it upon price rises.

[jojo69]

...but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

[jbreher]

Haven't checked this thread in a few days... I skimmed through a page or two but... pretty sure I saw what looked like jbreher going bullish on BTC. What else did I miss!?

You say that as if it is an exception. I am -- and have ever been -- bullish on Bitcoin.