Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA5Wc1_Zghk

All this needs now is a Kiffness remix with the head-banging cat overlayed, and we'll have the new Bitcoin bull run theme song. 

[MusaPk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA5Wc1_Zghk

Wow. 2.4 Million views in 14 years. 
The music brings nostalgic feelings of 90s, when apple and black berry were just fruits.
Thanks for sharing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MusaPk]

ChatGPT struggling to predict BTC next ATH.

[OutOfMemory]

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  

Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc.

Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside.

Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information.
Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards.

As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied.
At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway  

ChatGPT struggling to predict BTC next ATH.

Yesterday, i read that ChatGPT is from Microsoft, so i don't wonder too much that it can't predict this.
It can, however, gather, connect and combine a lot of information and also express it quite well. Kudos for that.

EDIT: Just checked back on OpenAI history, and in fact it's not "from Microsoft" at all, besides that $1bn investment back in 2019.

[eXPHorizon]

Only 1 Way out of Certain Apocalypse and BTC is not part of it.

[dragonvslinux]

...

The last "final capitulation" move was really obvious and easy to observe.
Several OG WO's did mark the bottom after that.
You can be fooled the most by your own eyes and mind. I won't name eXPHorizon as an extreme example for proof of this thesis  

Not that it has much relevance to current price above >$20K, but to be honest that "final capitulation" wasn't obvious to me what so ever. Once price had broken down to new lows I had very low confidence that the final low had been made until price got back above previous support around $19K. I'm not complaining I wasn't a buyer around $16K though, as buying +20% higher seems reasonable to me, especially now that price is up 20% from then and it still beats a DCA price from last June of $19.5K, or from May when price initially broke down from $30K which would be $20.9K, etc.

Obviously it's easy to look back and realise it was FTX-based panic selling style capitulation, but from a price-action perspective the chart looked bearish at the time and $10K to $14K looked increasingly likely once $17.5K had broken. For example if there wasn't that final capitulation, and price moved sideways between $19K and $21K until current break-out, I'm sure many would say that the low being in was obvious as well, because price had consolidated at the lows for 6+ months. My point is hindsight is great, but without hedge fund liquidations price could have even held $30K last year by the looks of it, as it had done so for 18 months already, and instead moved sideways for 6 months from there (to complete two years of consolidation) before returning to the upside.

Maybe i was looking too simple at things, but i don't do well in processing a lot of information.
Nevertheless, in a 4-year cycle manner, last ATH(s) were too early, last capitulation was in the mid of may 2018, so it felt about time that any major capitulation move, followed by strong "bitcoin is dead" sentiments, Saylor and Bukele no more buying... All of this (and more) fit together in my point of view. Thus, "unbreakable" support over $15k seemed reasonable enough for me to mark the bottom. I don't want to sound overly critical, regarding your way of looking at the market, but $10k, for example would have been way too big of a retrace then the globally expected 80% down, which also supported my feelings about bottom regards.

As you said, buying at $20k wasn't too bad either. I was out of free money for a while, which set back my buying plans a little, but i'm still satisfied.
At next ATH we will have forgotten our debate about this, anyway  

It's true regarding time-wise, by the end of the year it did start to look more like the bottom was in despite being at the lows. You're completely right that a retracement down to $10K (or beyond $14K) would be much further than expected, so was always a bit skeptical. I think I was believing too much of the analysis based on inflation being bad for Bitcoin blah blah blah when in reality price has (so far at least) retraced much less in the 2022 bear market than in 2018 and 2014. So ironically, if the bottom is indeed in, Bitcoin has performed much better during the inflationary period than in previous bear markets without it. Oh the irony.

I'm always aware that some bears still believe a new low is coming this year due to an impending recession, which I do think is still possible, but to me it's becoming clearer that Bitcoin's price movements are more determined by it's own price action and 4-year cycle halvings, as opposed to any wider global economic sentiment. As I've always said, Bitcoin is only correlated to the stock market until it's not.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I also keep working on trying to capture that Comet a.k.a. C/2022 E3 (ZTF), but since it moves in front of the stars, it will be hard to track, not even thinking about conditions (new moon, but clouds and fog everywhere over the place), having to capture this beast shortly before dawn.  
Still hoping for better conditions...

Wow!!  Sounds like you are going to need to readjust your HODL sleepie sleep schedule.   

It's like doing shift work perhaps? 

Every day, set your alarm for 1 hour before dawn in order to get up and to verify for ur lil selfie whether there are clouds in the relevant area (whatever that might mean?) of the sky or not.. maybe you could train a bot for pre-dawn cloud checking?  Ultimately, it seems the question would be if clouds present, go back to HODL sleepie sleep, and if no clouds, then get the fuck up so you can generate some nice and original (never before captured) pics for dee wall observer peeps.

Man, what happened to the guys that were shorting BTC in these here parts?

Are they still alive? Ping... Ping... No reply?

Damn. 

How many times have we seen very similar behaviors?  Smarter than everyone else in terms of knowing down before up or down before more down until they disappear...  their position does not seem to have UP within it, and maybe they might say that UP might come someday in the future, but largely they seem to be emphasizing over and over that down is coming before up or that any up that we witness is merely a dead cat bounce.

But then sometimes after we have had quite a bit of UP, they will come back several times during corrections to attempt to point out how they were right..  Sometimes they admit that they do not have any coins, but other times, they will try to suggest that they are trading serious amounts of corn - yet generally seem to be like dust amounts to several of the OG members.. if we are actually able to get them to give some kind of ballpark regarding how much they are trading... 0.01BTC.. yeah right.. as if we are going to treat those kinds of investment portfolios as if they were currently life changing, even though 10 years down the road, they might be, they are not tending to deal with anything substantial/meaningful even while talking a BIG game, to the extent that they even have any sustainability in their sooner or later going to be reckt perspective.

I see that Bitcoin has continued to rise very seriously this month and that makes me confident that it will increase to even greater levels in the near future. In the voting made by Cointelegraph through his twitter, I chose $30K for the Bitcoin price level. What do everyone here think, does that seem logical enough ?



https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1616791946927738883

I am surprised that people are so bullish.

There tends to be several corrections that exceed 10%, and we have not really had any meaningful corrections that go beyond 6% or 7% so far..... 

Even though there seems to be quite a bit of upwards price momentum currently, I would imagine that there is a decent amount of resistance between the current price of $23,250 and $24,600 - and then probably the next point of resistance would be in the $30k price territories... so it can be quite difficult to know how much the momentum can keep going when there has not been any meaningful price corrections - yet at the same time, historically we have had some of these seemingly outrageous and irrational upwards BTC price moves that go into a kind of punishment mode - and you never know in this particular case, there could be a couple of factors at play, including that 1) a lot of BTC have been removed from exchanges, 2) a lot of folks might be concerned about whether they still have a sufficient amount of BTC because of their having had been rug-pulled in the past 6 months or so.. or at least they are not confident about the quantity of BTC that they might own, 3) there might be some desires to punish some of the recent draconian and seemingly hostile governmental statements that have been coming out and aimed in the direction of BTC (trying to suggest that they are able to control and/or to tame my lil precious), and 4) perhaps some other factors that I am not currently considering.

My own answer in regards to that poll is that I hardly have any clue.. of course, I see the current seemingly exuberant BTC price movement, but at the same time, I also appreciate that these kinds of UPpity price runs are capable of running out of steam at any moment - even though they do not have to run out of steam because the last time I checked dee real cornz is actually a scarce asset, so if a lot of the fakers have been disabled or taken out of the market (whether temporary or not), market conditions (momentum) can end up following a kind of exuberant path.. that could even take us up to the lower $50ks within a few weeks, but I could not imagine going past the mid $50ks without hitting some kind of meaningful resistance (or having a 25% to 35% or more correction).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago... 

Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes

For sure you have been around the block LFC, so it it hard to believe that you were not attempting to make reasonable calculations in which you were actually prepared for either BTC price direction, even though I know in retrospect we can frequently assign different values to the assessments that we had been making at earlier times.  In other words, unless we execute perfectly, there seems to frequently be room to kick ourselves, even though we executed pretty damned well based on the information that we had at the time.

By the way, another thing is that if you are having higher than usual regrets, then it may well be a sign that you were "being too greedy," as you have assessed yourself to have had been.

This considerable UPpity BTC price move likely incentivizes a lot of us to start to feel that the bottom of $15,479 for this cycle is in, yet of course, we have to be careful about coming to those kinds of conclusions even though it does feel quite good to put some space between our current BTC price and that so far November 20 bottom price.. 

Many of us longer term BTC players (HODLers) likely realize that there are ways to structure our BTC portfolios in such a way that no matter what we are skewed towards UPpity, so sometimes if we are calculating how much we might have failed/refused to sufficiently skew towards uppity, then that ends up being a theoretical loss rather than an actual loss - at least in the sense that there are no give backs, and in that regards our preparations need to be future oriented so we should be o.k. in either direction, and then the BTC price is coming to us.. and yeah if we might have fucked up, then there usually can be ways to tweak a wee bit here and there, but still we have to accept and move on and if we do need to restructure, we restructure in such a way that the BTC price is coming to us, and that way at any given point in time, we should be happy no matter which way the BTC price goes... while perhaps having an ongoing preference for UPpity.

Of course, if we had sold on the way up or even sold some (such as 25% of our stash) in some kind of an UP position, then if the BTC price has dropped 50% to 70% from our sales price, then if we are a bitcoin bull, then we should have bought most of that sold amount back (even if we might have had been saving some portion of what we sold, perhaps up to 25% for lower prices that never ended up happening, so far)..

or very short "battle for (roughly) $70k" (you know that number),

You must be new here.

Battles do not happen at previous ATH levels, even though normies continuously theorize about such battles as if they were theoretically likely.. yeah right    They are possible, but in very low percentages of possibilities.. single digits-ish perhaps?, even though resistance at previous ATHs are talked about almost continuously as if they were an actual thing that actually happens.  Go figure?

By the way... pro tip.. ... previous ATHs are also known as "no man's land," which largely means that they are price areas in which we tend to pass through quickly.. yeah there may be a few tests that span a few weeks.. but that is nothing in the whole scheme of things... previous ATHs are also known as bat country, not to be mixed up with batman slaps.  Lots of things to remember in bitcoinlandia, no?

followed by a yet unseen, consistent run up. And that would be only the beginning, since we would have just passed the flattest part of the S-curve in the last few years.

When you are referring to the "flattest part of the S-curve," you seem to NOT be very well zoomed out.. .. Yes, when we are caught up in the s-curve, then parts of it look flat, but I doubt that we are getting to actual flat areas of the s-curve until somewhere supra $10 million per BTC (or in the area of 20x gold's market cap), and sure perhaps I am being too conservative because bitcoin is actually about 1,000x of gold's market cap, even though it could take a while to get there.. so maybe we might need to consider a little higher or further along beyond $10 million per BTC before we might start to see flattening of the s-curve.. even though the ultimate value of BTC is likely another 50x after arriving at $10 million, which would be $500 million per BTC.. though that seems way far off.. but it seems to be in the ball park of more stability.. even though it is quite likely that there could be quite a bit of stability between $10 million per coin and $500 million per coin, even though that does feel like a pretty big spread of 50x between the bottom and top of that relatively "stable" range.**

**Of course, it could take 100 to 200 years for the above described "stable range" to play out.. so a lot can happen between now and 100 years from now.. so when we are putting our own personal financial planning into practice, we need to be consider way shorter periods, such as 4-10 years or more and of course accounting for our own particulars, which includes that some folks might not even feel that they have a 4 year timeline in which they can lock up a lot of value into BTC, which surely can be quite volatile in the short-term, as we tend to witness on a ongoingly regular basis.

#NFA
#NFE
#iactuallysuckatmathstoo

Fair enough.

The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago... 

Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game 

My not so great understanding is that he sold around 25% of his stash at around $50k-ish, and then he bought the vast majority plus a little back between $16k and $24k-ish... and he held out a decent amount of his cash to be prepared to buy lower.. maybe 25% held back, which still could be a lot of dry powder to be holding?  I might be bastardizing this a bit, and so what?  we are largely talking in hypotheticals about "friends" that we know anyhow, no?  My friend does not believe in selling large portions of his/her BTC, but hey different strokes for different folks, and there surely are decently valid reasons to shave off some BTC when the price goes up sufficiently, especially when any of us is significantly in profits and we are also prepared to be wrong in case the BTC price does not end up correcting sufficiently below the point that we sold in order that we can buy back.

[Arriemoller]

I see bitcoin gone up a little, as expected after the obligatory bear year, not much to talk about really.

But this is, Sweden is finally sending Archer and CV 90 (and some other goodies) to Ukraine!!!! I really do hope Gripen is in the next package.

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!

And, yes, Ukraine is still winning if anybody thought otherwise.

[OutOfMemory]

I also keep working on trying to capture that Comet a.k.a. C/2022 E3 (ZTF), but since it moves in front of the stars, it will be hard to track, not even thinking about conditions (new moon, but clouds and fog everywhere over the place), having to capture this beast shortly before dawn.  
Still hoping for better conditions...

Wow!!  Sounds like you are going to need to readjust your HODL sleepie sleep schedule.  

It's like doing shift work perhaps?  

Every day, set your alarm for 1 hour before dawn in order to get up and to verify for ur lil selfie whether there are clouds in the relevant area (whatever that might mean?) of the sky or not.. maybe you could train a bot for pre-dawn cloud checking?  Ultimately, it seems the question would be if clouds present, go back to HODL sleepie sleep, and if no clouds, then get the fuck up so you can generate some nice and original (never before captured) pics for dee wall observer peeps.

Gee, Jay...  
We're in the 21st century already  

See, dee app(s) on my smartyphoney thingy are going to tell me in advance how dense the clouds will be (low, med and high altitude separately).
The setup i try to realize for this comet involves a raspberry Pi3 controlling the scope, the planetarium software on my computer will keep track of the comet and the capture software will control the camera. All i have to do is to set it alll up before i go to sleep, and take off the dew cover at 3am, which i will have to set an alarm clock for, and then i will go back to sleep. It's just a matter of testing the setup and tracking, since it involves three pieces of new, complicated software to master.
The setup i'm using currently isn't capable of tracking comets. It's planetarium, control and shooting software all on a more powerful Raspberry Pi4, which i access via a remote desktop protocol. I could use this setup and track on the comet optically, without the planetarium delivering realtime positioning data, which would be my fallback method. The bad luck, in my case, is that there aren't any comets bright enough to test with the one suitable telescope i have.
I could even shoot the comet earlier at night, but the image data would be suboptimal through light pollution, mainly. As an Astrophotographer, you want to get things right as much as possible. You don't want to set up things for an hour in the freezing cold and all you get is a lousy picture after hours of collecting and processing the data.
When i grew up in an age of low light pollution, in a place far from cities, i could not resist the charming magic of the starry skies until today. Combine this with a special interest affine personality and astrophotography is the ideal hobby, after you got too old for hacking computers and playing games like Counter Strike through (at least) the first half of every night

The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago... 

Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game 

My not so great understanding is that he sold around 25% of his stash at around $50k-ish, and then he bought the vast majority plus a little back between $16k and $24k-ish... and he held out a decent amount of his cash to be prepared to buy lower.. maybe 25% held back, which still could be a lot of dry powder to be holding?  I might be bastardizing this a bit, and so what?  we are largely talking in hypotheticals about "friends" that we know anyhow, no?  My friend does not believe in selling large portions of his/her BTC, but hey different strokes for different folks, and there surely are decently valid reasons to shave off some BTC when the price goes up sufficiently, especially when any of us is significantly in profits and we are also prepared to be wrong in case the BTC price does not end up correcting sufficiently below the point that we sold in order that we can buy back.

Triple-yep, Jay. I almost knew my memories were blurred out already, but LFC shed a light on it earlier, too.
I don't think i'm always universally right in my thinkenings and believings. Again, i won't mention eXPHorizon as (counter) example here 

[Arriemoller]

Stockholm stock exchange up 7,54% this year, my BTC cerificates up 29,42% could it be a decoupling? pretty nice anyway and a bit surprising that that stocks are up so much, thought they would be at least going sideways considering.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin 430+ days bear market downtrend breakout confirmed.

The suffering is over.

Probably. But I have seen too much surprises in this market to be 100% sure.

You're in disbelief stage i guess.

(Ore not, lol)

[HI-TEC99]

...

The price was $2000 lower 24 hours ago...  

Can’t believe we were at $16,xxx last month. I bought a handful in that range but sat on a pile of fiat waiting for lower. Feel like a bit of a moron now but it is what it is. I have enough bitcoin, was being greedy but greed is good sometimes

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game  

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report


dyor


up and atop the yardarm again....full sail and a following breeze
steady on

恭喜发财

4h


D

stronghands

[Biodom]

@jjg...when someone says that something is 1000 times better than the other "thing", it does not mean that the price has to be 1000 times higher, though.
Gold is at 12.7tril ($12.7X10¹²).
1000X is a nonsensical number of 12.7 quadrillion with total world's wealth at "only" 463 trillion.
Sure, we can talk about prices and world's wealth being much higher in 100 years, but I prefer to focus on something more achievable for now-gold's market cap.
Only about 28X to achieve that, should be doable in, say, 6-7 years (by the top of the next cycle, not this one).

[JayJuanGee]

IIRC, didn't you unload at about $65k and got it all in at $16-$20k again?
You can still buy little by little on the early up. You know the game 

Sold between 58.3k & 65k. I started buying back at 31.8k all the way down to 16k. I just wanted to get back to a nice round number of bitcoin (my OCD wilding ). It would have been a lot easier under 16k haha.

I’m happy to pump hard this year, no problems.

TMI...

Hahahahahaha

By the way, isn't my lil precious great?  (sounds redundant when I phrase it like that).

Over the years, I have had quite a few fuck ups in my stack management (however you might want to label it?), but even when comparing best case scenarios, better case scenarios, worse case scenarios and what actually ended up happening, there are a lot of ways to screw up, but to still be doing quite well, so long as your emphasis had been MOSTLY HODLing most of your BTC and not playing "too extremely".. even if you might have had been "fucking around" with decently large sums of money along the way.

Only 1 Way out of Certain Apocalypse and BTC is not part of it.

I am glad that you seem to be having fun staying poor.

Stockholm stock exchange up 7,54% this year, my BTC cerificates up 29,42% could it be a decoupling? pretty nice anyway and a bit surprising that that stocks are up so much, thought they would be at least going sideways considering.

Sorry to break the newses... but I must let uie pooie know that my lil precious never was coupled with various stockmarket index funds, so you must have been suffering from delusional fantasies if you had seriously considered that dee cornz had ever been coupled with stocks and blah blah blah...or maybe you had been spending too much time on reddit? or absorbing mainstream media talking-points that don't seem to know nuttin when it comes to king daddy.