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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (3.3%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.6%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.7%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (2%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.6%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 26 (17%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 24 (15.7%)
$10,500-10,999 - 12 (7.8%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (9.2%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 15 (9.8%)
>$12,000 - 32 (20.9%)
>$20,000 - 13 (8.5%)
Total Voters: 153

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21242948 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (66 posts by 16 users deleted.)
smartcomet
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February 02, 2018, 02:05:44 AM

Look folks, just put all background noise about tether, India guv, Roubini FUD and other distractions out of your minds.

Here's what's going on. The correction is technical, pure and simple.

If you checkout this chart from 2015/2016/17, you can see that bitcoin grows in these 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:



That is:

 • market starts rising out of a bowl
 • gets to a point where it overheats
 • nosedives sharply all the way down to retest just below the previous "propellor spike"
 • retraces halfway up the initial correction and stabilises
 • drifts slowly down from there to settle from where it starts the next cycle

During 2017 these corrections got closer together as we've had both greater market depth AND unprecedented growth during the year. So instead of our 8-monthly crash and recovery we've had 3 of those consolidations (that manifest in the lowest resolution weekly chart) in the last 6 months instead of 1. The last one was in November, peaking at $7500. Together, those 3 consolidations amounted to an aggregate 77% retrace spanning 6-8 months. ($7500, November, $1825 end May).



What this means according to precedent is that we NEED to retest at least that 7500 (+or- 20%) region before progressing. It's just the bitcoin way. This is an uncapitalised asset class that's rapidly capitalising and there's so much clamour to get in that it can't do it smoothly.

The low of $8455 we saw on Bitstamp a couple of hours ago may or may not be the bottom of the wick. To complete the full depth of the needed correction we may have to revisit the $7500 level or even 6k at a pinch to really bake in the last runup but that could just as easily manifest as a momentary panic "fat finger" dump before retracing back up the decline to around the $13k level which is 50% of the consolidation we've had since the peak.


How Does this Compare to the 2013 bubble ?

In fact the 2013 rally and that nightmare 18 month recovery followed exactly the same pattern. The reason it took so long to recover is because it went straight from $126 all the way to the top in 7 straight weeks without any of these bubble-bursting corrections on the way (or even mini corrections). That meant that the last support level was the so called "Cyprus spike" way back in April 2013 when it spiked at $266. And sure enough - according to form - it went all the way back to retest that level and a bit more for good measure. Note this is very different to the situation we have now on 3 counts:

1. the rise from $1000 to $19k (16k realistically) is comparable in relative terms but has taken a whole year instead of just 7 weeks

2. we have 3 fairly hefty consolidations which more or less overlap each other and we've almost arrived at the last of those already

3. the correction is rapid and deep which is a good sign because it snaps the market quickly back into a more reasonable trend that can be sustained (see previous "propellor corrections how they've played out).

Note: the angle between the support level and the 3 retracement lines in the 2013 chart below. You can see from that that the closer the retracement occurs to the peak blow-off, the higher the bottom will be. 2014 went low because it retraced so slowly and didn't hit the fan-line for a whole year.

Conclusion is, this means the bottom will be in fairly quickly and it's likely to be in the region of the $7500 level +/- 20% in my opinion followed by a fairly rapid (21 day) retrace to the upside as shorts close and off-book demand goes back onto the order books. If not, there are still a furter two consolidation levels available below that but it'd be a brave shorter that would put a lot of money behind adverse trades at those levels given the precedents IMO.




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February 02, 2018, 02:06:08 AM
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farewell, adieu, to yeu and yeu and yeu...
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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February 02, 2018, 02:07:08 AM

I have to admit theres a lot of big orders being thrown down at these levels.

Whoever is selling, thank you for the cheap coins. Appreciated as always!



Hear This Many times and Many of us thinking the same , but what When fiat runs out and theres No more fiat to buy any?? At that circumstances those can Just hope to go back up ?  Cool

Central banks are printing hundreds of billions every month. If you don't get any of those newly printed fiat money then bitcoin is not for you! You probably have much bigger trouble than current bitcoin price correction?


Mmmm in here you do not understand me very good .... i for myself have plenty of BTC and bought @this times but there are Many amount us that are neckdeep in for sure whitout any fiat left .....  for myself i also have bought all standing fiat on Exchanges in BTC  Cool

I don't think that anyone can fault you for running out of fiat on the exchanges because sometimes it can be difficult to judge exactly, even while there is kind of a need to continue to attempt to prepare for worse case scenarios.


In the past I have been guilty of running out of money on exchanges and having to juggle things around, yet some of this preparation has gotten easier, especially when we had experienced such exorbitant price rises, including a 7.5x price rise from August to December (that was from about $2,600 to $19,666).  I kind of forced myself to restructure my whole order book around $15k - because previously, I had attempted to prepare for at least a 50% retracement yet when we approach 35% or even 40%, we can start to get nervous that preparation for 50% is not enough, and also we know that BTC has suffered a few corrections that approach the 90% levels.

Personally, i am thinking that 60% is about the deepest of this retracement, which would be around $7,800 - but yeah the longer it goes on and the closer it gets can bring doubt on that kind of thinking.. and hopes that there is sufficient buying support that will push the price back up, once we might get some kind of last ditch effort to spike the price down.

Surely, up is better than down.. but if we are getting lemons, then we just gotta make ourselves some lemonaide out of the situation, no?
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February 02, 2018, 02:13:01 AM

Yeah kind of..
Have a very small stash.

Sold the trading stash. Don't have the balls i guess.
Im expecting a bounce at the current level.Just gave up on it.A small rally once the selling pressure subsides.
Opted to put in buys the way down. Hoping atleast the 7500 fills.
Bounce @8900
Bounce @7500
Bounce @5500
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February 02, 2018, 02:16:21 AM
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I will wait till 2020 before I sell shit only buying now. 💥⚡️🤔

Hopefully that S9 price is as discounted as bitcoin is!
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February 02, 2018, 02:26:42 AM



I keep hearing of big banks ordering smaller banks to close accounts of exchanges or people that transfer money to exchanges.  Huh  Huh
How are people gonna buy more coins if banks don't cooperate?? Altcoins? Or they will accept fiat themselves or wtf?? Smiley
They are doing this in India and even in North America, but at a lesser extent.
They are just blocking people's cards if they are using it to buy crypto.

But some are also saying that Capital one are closing their cards outright for even attempting to purchase anything related to crypto.
If they see coinbase or "crypto" as the seller, they will close their card right then and there.

Funny how the world has reacted to crypto and treat it since late last year when it was worth more than an ounce of gold.
But now... they are just putting up barred wire(and not paying much notice to it all the sudden Lips sealed) incase it does reach over $17,000usd again.
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February 02, 2018, 02:26:54 AM

mempool closed, due to lack of interest.

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#30d
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February 02, 2018, 02:32:21 AM
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BOYS ALL GOOD




20 k anyone?


/edit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYmFpYdwqLs
Rosewater Foundation
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February 02, 2018, 02:34:36 AM

Wealth transferred, mission accomplished. Absolute savagery. Why I ever thought this would end in anything other than tears I'll never know.
centralbanksequalsbombs
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February 02, 2018, 02:35:11 AM
Merited by RoomBot (2), micgoossens (1)


UPDATE:


as noted above 'combination' = BTG + litecoin + monero + vertcoin + groestlcoin
predicted to be become 5x BCH's market value

Predicting Bitcoin Cash (BCH) will be the worst and will fall in relative terms while everything else grows relative to BCH.

Real Bitcoin is most superior in store of value now and going forward - lightning network emerging!

Lightning network and Bitcoin's superiority will be the story of the year. Altcoins have experienced and may likely continue to experience a relative death.

Will reiterate - great entry point to buy Bitcoin at these levels.
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February 02, 2018, 02:37:14 AM

Wolf Of Wall Street Says Bitcoin Could Hit $50K Before Crashing
https://cointelegraph.com/news/wolf-of-wall-street-says-bitcoin-could-hit-50k-before-crashing

This is true? Or bitcoin is dead now  Huh
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February 02, 2018, 02:46:12 AM
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Wealth transferred, mission accomplished. Absolute savagery. Why I ever thought this would end in anything other than tears I'll never know.

deep breaths

remember your happy place
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February 02, 2018, 02:49:41 AM
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Wolf Of Wall Street Says Bitcoin Could Hit $50K Before Crashing
https://cointelegraph.com/news/wolf-of-wall-street-says-bitcoin-could-hit-50k-before-crashing

This is true? Or bitcoin is dead now  Huh

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February 02, 2018, 03:00:30 AM

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February 02, 2018, 03:04:19 AM

Vowing to myself not look at my phone at 3:00 am tonight, like I did last night. Setting up a few bids in case it goes lower while I sleep. Although it would be nice to get back some of my BTC that I let go, earlier; it will be nicer to see a monumental rebound. Maybe a deep dip followed by the mother of all rebounds would be ideal.  Grin That's probably hoping for too much though.
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February 02, 2018, 03:08:40 AM
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Vowing to myself not look at my phone at 3:00 am tonight, like I did last night. Setting up a few bids in case it goes lower while I sleep. Although it would be nice to get back some of my BTC that I let go, earlier; it will be nicer to see a monumental rebound. Maybe a deep dip followed by the mother of all rebounds would be ideal.  Grin That's probably hoping for too much though.

Don't let Bitcoin force you into checking it all the time. You will get no sleep or work done.


JayJuanGee
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February 02, 2018, 03:47:15 AM

Yeah kind of..
Have a very small stash.

Sold the trading stash. Don't have the balls i guess.
Im expecting a bounce at the current level.Just gave up on it.A small rally once the selling pressure subsides.
Opted to put in buys the way down. Hoping atleast the 7500 fills.
Bounce @8900
Bounce @7500
Bounce @5500

I don't mean to be calling you names, but it just does not seem to be a good strategy to play like that - which I mean is selling at about 55% retracement.. and the practice should not be different whether you are holding a lot or holding a little, and probably the most convincing mistake is that either you had not sold enough earlier or you had invested too much (even if it is a small amount)... but yeah, it is understandable that each of us have to do what ends up being comfortable for us... and hopefully learn how to improve our methods so we don't do the opposite of what would be a better practice (buying on the way down - or worse case scenario, just HODLing)
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February 02, 2018, 03:51:10 AM
Last edit: February 02, 2018, 04:06:37 AM by JayJuanGee

Wealth transferred, mission accomplished. Absolute savagery. Why I ever thought this would end in anything other than tears I'll never know.


Step away from the ledge, RF.... Don't do it!!!!!!   Don't do it!!!!
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February 02, 2018, 04:04:00 AM

Wealth transferred, mission accomplished. Absolute savagery. Why I ever thought this would end in anything other than tears I'll never know.
What “this” are you referring to and what “end” are you talking about?  It’s like gibberish.
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February 02, 2018, 04:42:21 AM

Wealth transferred, mission accomplished. Absolute savagery. Why I ever thought this would end in anything other than tears I'll never know.
What “this” are you referring to and what “end” are you talking about?  It’s like gibberish.

People going crazy because the line of a chart shows an unexpected alteration. Better to stay in bed for them if this worries.

I'm also not sure how people think they can predict the bitcoin future price, there's too much rubble at the moment to see clearly. It's like black friday all day for over two months, and some people bought too much stuff and are now selling that same stuff below price because they need food instead. That impulsive period of buying isn't where you should focus all your analysis if trying to make an estimate Tongue
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