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Question: Dec. 14 Closing Price:
<$6,000 - 6 (12%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 3 (6%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 4 (8%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 7 (14%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 11 (22%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 9 (18%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (6%)
>$9,000 - 7 (14%)
Total Voters: 50

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21453349 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (136 posts by 30 users deleted.)
HairyMaclairy
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April 29, 2019, 12:58:07 PM

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.
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Last of the V8s
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April 29, 2019, 01:14:50 PM

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.
and one's soul would be an empty grey husk
looking for the next scam
HairyMaclairy
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April 29, 2019, 01:23:39 PM

Indeed

If you went for the ETH scam you would have gone for the other scams too and been a Storj bag holder etc
Last of the V8s
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April 29, 2019, 01:29:56 PM

Firstof all sorry If i quoted *someone* without proper warning. I don't want to be insta-ignored by anyone , I plead guilty not being part of this WO family so I need to cachup with all the feuds going on.
Secondly I think then you basically agree with me, The concept is not new, but i think that someone writing in  a reddit post doesn't mean Saifedean has pagiarised anyone, did he?
Yeah most people prefer one not to quote roach or even engage him. Some do engage, but to no effect. He's a stupid troll. I wouldn't pay him anything for his bleating, as there's far better material out there to attack us with, and he ignores it. He clearly just wants to buy low.
No, no plagiarism or disagreement implied, just presenting some history of a work-in-progress, many minds muddling together sort of thing. Of course when the #trilema search comes back up, we'll probably find stock to flow was discussed there in 2013 or something.
saifedean, shelby (anonymint of this parish) and tiny moi all acknowledge our learning from #trilema. roach feigns originality where there is none.
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April 29, 2019, 01:35:55 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 01:46:28 PM by Febo

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.    Or better example to be more clear. If USD will not have huge inflation in next 10 years we will for sure not see a $2.8m bitcoin around year 2028.
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April 29, 2019, 01:42:33 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.   
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

d_eddie
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April 29, 2019, 01:45:12 PM

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled

(sensible calc snipped - refer to OP)

So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88

+1 WOsMerit Globb0!
Febo
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April 29, 2019, 01:48:55 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.  
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

Just take numbers yourself. it is not correct.

Let me go now with this stock of flow. It is just opposite of how I calculated it.

For 2012 9.5, for 2016 should be 24 and for 2020  56.



DoublerHunter
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April 29, 2019, 01:52:36 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Is there interesting it here long forecast on bitcoin prediction price?



https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

When is the next halving? Wink
Last of the V8s
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April 29, 2019, 01:54:02 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 02:25:05 PM by Last of the V8s

^damn so if that was right, i would lose the bet, but I WOULDA BEEN RIGHT, kinda
someone plot it against the 2015 fractal?


meanwhile in the relentless round of stupidity and scammery
https://www.intergameonline.com/igaming/news/g8c-brings-blockchain-to-house-of-commons
....

https://www.rttnews.com/story.aspx?Id=2996283 Insurance Broker Marsh Unveiling Proof Of Insurance Blockchain Platform
....

https://thefintechtimes.com/blockchain-freelance-market/
....
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April 29, 2019, 01:54:55 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com
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April 29, 2019, 01:59:09 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.
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April 29, 2019, 02:05:14 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.

There certainly is. I followed it before the last one too Smiley
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April 29, 2019, 02:13:34 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 02:48:20 PM by fillippone

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.  
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

Just take numbers yourself. it is not correct.

Let me go now with this stock of flow. It is just opposite of how I calculated it.

For 2012 9.5, for 2016 should be 24 and for 2020  56.





Well I double checked, for what it is worth.
IF you think you spotted some errors you can double check all the relevant code here:
https://github.com/100trillionUSD/bitcoin

and then interact directly with the author via issue requests.
I am sure he's more than willing to have his numbers set straight (no sarcasm here).
Otherwise you might learn something.



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April 29, 2019, 02:20:43 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)
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April 29, 2019, 02:26:06 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)

I would be surprised if any of this "models" has a value >0.

As I posted above, the only price model that could be used to predict prices in 2019 using the data only from 2009-2012 is the one of PlanB.
That is serious stuff.
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April 29, 2019, 02:33:41 PM

And “resurfaces” is the wrong term as it implies that the need has previously surfaced, which it has not.  The need may never surface.

You've already banished it from your revisionist history?

There were some high fees in 2017. There was no need for a block size increase as demonstrated by the failure of BCH.

If it was “necessary”, BCH would have won. 

The result was a BTC dominance drop from an overwhelming ~85% to abut half. Are you prepared for a drop to about a quarter next time the stream is blocked? You're whistling past your own graveyard.
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April 29, 2019, 02:34:54 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)
^that's why I wanted to know here if they are accurate on giving a forecast in prediction. (they don't have price graph).

I found out that they had a bitcoin price date and also today.
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April 29, 2019, 02:38:53 PM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?

If it was urgent it could probably be done in 48 hours.   But it won’t be urgent.  

It ain't just a river in Egypt.

I would mostly agree with the bear here.
The last full block crisis resulted in inaction, to force people onto segwit.

Yes, but was the attrition worth it? Especially given the fact that it was all so unnecessary.

Quote
I presume the next full block crisis will result in inaction, to force people onto lightning.

Yes, but will the attrition be worth it? Sanity says no.
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April 29, 2019, 02:42:14 PM

Craig Wright Dubs Binance a ‘Money-Laundering Bucketshop’, Calls John McAfee a Conman

https://www.ccn.com/craig-wright-binance-bucketshop-john-mcafee-a-conman

https://youtu.be/8_SoIXUBIhw

"You have things like CZ (Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO) there and Binance which is super bucket shop which are basically money laundering organizations. They wash trades and money laundering. That’s how they make money."

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