Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Ancient fucking bots.

[Mythul]

It was a really nice rally this weekend. I guess weekend "dumps" are a thing of the past right now.

[billyjoeallen]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Lol. There's enough fiat sitting in exchanges today to take the price to >$1500.

Really. Some of you simply astound me.

then why haven't they brought coins yet?  

I have some $ there too,  and I'm not buying because, well, how can I sleep knowing I am holding BTC at the moment...

Sleep is overrated. All yer gonna do is dream of skittles-pooping unicorns and risk-free profit anyway.

[mmitech]

Good morning there, I didn't sleep till 04:00 Europe time (GMT+1). and just woke up, watching Bitstamp now,so the price went up to 646 !!...how do we translate this?

something worth mentioning is that the MACD is still negative: the 12 period AMA is above the 26 period AMA, there will be a cross over in few hours and the price may drop.

only now it seems that a reversal is possible, the next drop will decide if we continue going down , or if there will be a rally up, of course the Gox situation will complicate things a little bit..

[windjc]

It would be interesting to know what price we would be at if the majority of the fiat on the exchanges all bought it. I reckon there's enough to take us straight past the ATH. Think about all the shorts that still need to be closed as well.

Gox re-enabling withdrawals
All the fiat waiting on the sidelines
All the open shorts to be squeezed

If all these things happen I think alot of people will miss the train.

Obviously I dont doubt that we can and probably will go down a bit first but in the near future its gonna be choo choo time.

Well. Lets take Bitfinex for example. Now I have two points of data with them. First, I've been tracking their lending fiat amounts which have climbed from 1 million to over 16 million at one point a week or so ago. I believe these are mostly post December deposits because I sent them an email asking how much was being deposited into their exchange and Raphael emailed me back and said on a busy day, over $1 million.  Now, Bitfinex represents less than 10% of trading volume. So we can make some very general assumptions that tens of millions have continued to flow into exchanges in 2014 while a great deal of people have sold looking to buy lower.

So I believe there is enough right now to take well past the all time highs.

[RicePicker]

It would be interesting to know what price we would be at if the majority of the fiat on the exchanges all bought it. I reckon there's enough to take us straight past the ATH. Think about all the shorts that still need to be closed as well.

Gox re-enabling withdrawals
All the fiat waiting on the sidelines
All the open shorts to be squeezed

If all these things happen I think alot of people will miss the train.

Obviously I dont doubt that we can and probably will go down a bit first but in the near future its gonna be choo choo time.

Well. Lets take Bitfinex for example. Now I have two points of data with them. First, I've been tracking their lending fiat amounts which have climbed from 1 million to over 16 million at one point a week or so ago. I believe these are mostly post December deposits because I sent them an email asking how much was being deposited into their exchange and Raphael emailed me back and said on a busy day, over $1 million.  Now, Bitfinex represents less than 10% of trading volume. So we can make some very general assumptions that tens of millions have continued to flow into exchanges in 2014 while a great deal of people have sold looking to buy lower.

So I believe there is enough right now to take well past the all time highs.

The exchanges only represent less than 5% of the bitcoin available. How much resistant will there be if the price even manages to go over 1k again? None of the bitcoin exchanges are completely reliable and compared to the sentiment of November a lot of people would agree with me that holding any large sum of bitcoin or USD in and exchange is a gamble. You can say there is enough fiat on the exchanges to bring the price to $1500, I can also say there is enough bitcoins to bring the price down to $100.   

[windjc]

It would be interesting to know what price we would be at if the majority of the fiat on the exchanges all bought it. I reckon there's enough to take us straight past the ATH. Think about all the shorts that still need to be closed as well.

Gox re-enabling withdrawals
All the fiat waiting on the sidelines
All the open shorts to be squeezed

If all these things happen I think alot of people will miss the train.

Obviously I dont doubt that we can and probably will go down a bit first but in the near future its gonna be choo choo time.

Well. Lets take Bitfinex for example. Now I have two points of data with them. First, I've been tracking their lending fiat amounts which have climbed from 1 million to over 16 million at one point a week or so ago. I believe these are mostly post December deposits because I sent them an email asking how much was being deposited into their exchange and Raphael emailed me back and said on a busy day, over $1 million.  Now, Bitfinex represents less than 10% of trading volume. So we can make some very general assumptions that tens of millions have continued to flow into exchanges in 2014 while a great deal of people have sold looking to buy lower.

So I believe there is enough right now to take well past the all time highs.

The exchanges only represent less than 5% of the bitcoin available. How much resistant will there be if the price even manages to go over 1k again? None of the bitcoin exchanges are completely reliable and compared to the sentiment of November a lot of people would agree with me that holding any large sum of bitcoin or USD in and exchange is a gamble. You can say there is enough fiat on the exchanges to bring the price to $1500, I can also say there is enough bitcoins to bring the price down to $100.  

Yes. But this was in response to someone asking where the money possibly come from to go to $900 again. I explained it. There is more than enough there.

There's enough coins to take us to a penny, but historically speaking people have proven to mainly hold. Dispersement has been slow a d steady from the beginning. So unless you are yet once again going to argue with the 5 year trend, my point remains.

[Todorius]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Hahaha, the very same thing was said about the people that bought back in April 2013 at 266$. And they could realise some nice profit a few months later.
Yeah do that, wait until bitcoin hits 100$ again, which never will be the case, and watch bitcoin climb to 2000$, 3000$, one day to 10000$, and maybe then
you'll realize that you'd be waiting forever to get your cheap coins.

[fluidjax]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Hahaha, the very same thing was said about the people that bought back in April 2013 at 266$. And they could realise some nice profit a few months later.
Yeah do that, wait until bitcoin hits 100$ again, which never will be the case, and watch bitcoin climb to 2000$, 3000$, one day to 10000$, and maybe then
you'll realize that you'd be waiting forever to get your cheap coins.

The forum is littered with people who waited for a price that never came, sad thing is, lots of those people went away and didn't come back.
Perhaps you should set a series of mental stop losses, so worst case as the price rises to  $650, $700, $750  you part buy back in and take the hit. Otherwise history tells us there is a real danger you will just be waiting forever.

[Blue]

Gox bucks and blog sucks !

[ShroomsKit]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Ok, we'll see you when it reaches 100. Take care. Bye.

[JorgeStolfi]

One way of estimating how much MtGOX owes to their clients is to guess the typical "mobility" m of their accounts; which is the sum of all transactions that a client did in a month (say) divided by the current balance of his account.

Suppose that, in the last month, a client bought 8 BTC, sold 2 BTC, and now has 20 BTC and 12,000 USD in his account.  Then the  "mobility" of his account (assuming market price 600 USD/BTC) is (8 BTC + 2 BTC)/(20 BTC + 12,000 USD) = 10/40 = 25% per month.

If we have a good guess for m, we can estimate the total balance of MtGOX accounts (the main part of their debt) by Q/m where Q is their total trade volume for the past month.

So, what would be a reasonable guess for m?  

For an active trader, m can be a lot more than 100%; but most clients must be occasional traders, or just "hodlers" who buy once in a while and never sell.

For this purpose, the denominator must be only the coins and money currently deposited in the exchange's account, excluding any coins in the client's personal wallets and any money in his own bank account.

[ShroomsKit]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Hahaha, the very same thing was said about the people that bought back in April 2013 at 266$. And they could realise some nice profit a few months later.
Yeah do that, wait until bitcoin hits 100$ again, which never will be the case, and watch bitcoin climb to 2000$, 3000$, one day to 10000$, and maybe then
you'll realize that you'd be waiting forever to get your cheap coins.

The forum is littered with people who waited for a price that never came, sad thing is, lots of those people went away and didn't come back.
Perhaps you should set a series of mental stop losses, so worst case as the price rises to  $650, $700, $750  you part buy back in and take the hit. Otherwise history tells us there is a real danger you will just be waiting forever.

Let the guy wait man. As long as he don't start trolling here every day out of pure frustration that the price us going up. We have enough of those already. He said he'd leave and i'm pretty sure he's manly and proud enough to actually leave.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Todorius]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Hahaha, the very same thing was said about the people that bought back in April 2013 at 266$. And they could realise some nice profit a few months later.
Yeah do that, wait until bitcoin hits 100$ again, which never will be the case, and watch bitcoin climb to 2000$, 3000$, one day to 10000$, and maybe then
you'll realize that you'd be waiting forever to get your cheap coins.

The forum is littered with people who waited for a price that never came, sad thing is, lots of those people went away and didn't come back.
Perhaps you should set a series of mental stop losses, so worst case as the price rises to  $650, $700, $750  you part buy back in and take the hit. Otherwise history tells us there is a real danger you will just be waiting forever.

Let the guy wait man. As long as he don't start trolling here every day out of pure frustration that the price us going up. We have enough of those already. He said he'd leave and i'm pretty sure he's manly and proud enough to actually leave.

It's just funny and sad at the same time to see so many people not realize bitcoins potential, and not realize that we're dealing with a groundbreaking technology here, a network, and not a standard asset.
Well, I guess it's indeed better for the bitcoin community if such people leave

[oda.krell]

The only reason

Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox.

read it and agree with most of it.  Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion..

I might come back when BTC is back around $100.  feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900

regulation issues
legal issues
technical issues
community trust issues

where would serious new investment come from under these conditions?

Hahaha, the very same thing was said about the people that bought back in April 2013 at 266$. And they could realise some nice profit a few months later.
Yeah do that, wait until bitcoin hits 100$ again, which never will be the case, and watch bitcoin climb to 2000$, 3000$, one day to 10000$, and maybe then
you'll realize that you'd be waiting forever to get your cheap coins.

The forum is littered with people who waited for a price that never came, sad thing is, lots of those people went away and didn't come back.
Perhaps you should set a series of mental stop losses, so worst case as the price rises to  $650, $700, $750  you part buy back in and take the hit. Otherwise history tells us there is a real danger you will just be waiting forever.

Listen to this guy. He gets it.

I'm not a big fan of pure buy&hold, so I trade (moderately) aggressive, with the goal to maximize my coin stash. That means  of course I'm reluctant to buy back in too early, because I sold to re-buy cheaper.

But one of the defining qualities of a long-term profitable trading career is knowing when to cut your losses. And if you consistently manage to only make small losses when your assumptions were slightly off, but once in a while you make a big gain because you hit the sweet spot of sell high, (re-)buy low, then you will turn a nice net profit. At least that's what my experience of the last ~10 months of trading tell me.

[tarmi]

I think that more then 80 % of people here are aggressive trolls, who are interested in short term profits only.

if they are long from 530, they will tell you that the price will skyrocket. when they close their trade @ 640, they will brag that they are good traders.

HODLERS are actually people who bought their coins when they were 5 $ each.

[T.Stuart]

I think that more then 80 % of people here are aggressive trolls, who are interested in short term profits.

if they are long from 530, they will tell you that the price will skyrocket. when they close their trade @ 640, they will brag that they are good traders. and vicversa.


HODLERS are actually people who bought their when they were 5 $ each.

Yeah but today there is also a small group of extreme HODLERS who bought at $1000!

[Mythul]

I think that more then 80 % of people here are aggressive trolls, who are interested in short term profits.

if they are long from 530, they will tell you that the price will skyrocket. when they close their trade @ 640, they will brag that they are good traders. and vicversa.


HODLERS are actually people who bought their when they were 5 $ each.

Yeah but today there is also a small group of extreme HODLERS who bought at $1000!

I'm almost in that "exclusive' club

[tarmi]

I think that more then 80 % of people here are aggressive trolls, who are interested in short term profits.

if they are long from 530, they will tell you that the price will skyrocket. when they close their trade @ 640, they will brag that they are good traders. and vicversa.


HODLERS are actually people who bought their when they were 5 $ each.

Yeah but today there is also a small group of extreme HODLERS who bought at $1000!

cultists are by definition irrational beings.