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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26372122 times)
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January 27, 2020, 01:36:06 AM

New poll suggestion. Will Corona Virus get to 10k deaths before Bitcoin gets to 10k?
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January 27, 2020, 01:41:23 AM

Ah this is what these distractions like Kobe and the bat pox are about https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-new-recession-fighting-tool-capping-treasury-yields-11580050800
https://archive.is/OD3gA
The Fed wants to Japanify the US
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January 27, 2020, 02:20:49 AM

well duhh
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January 27, 2020, 02:48:26 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)



Sure, that was 2013 and without the - justHodl, SoV is only left over from the original idea and Satoshi White Paper.


Now btc IS just more Ponzi than ever, thx to kicking out all the business (remember the 2x UASF shit show?)


Im happy BSV - Bitcoin is back on track

Make a BSV-wall Observer thread and please get lost in there ..... we can perfectly be functional whiteout you in here

Be gone be silent, leave BTC out of your writing and focus creating a thread for “your kind of people”

I just moved a legacy address bitcoin core to another address. I think Monday I'm gonna flush all the forks off of that paper wallet of BSV/BCH or whatever. At the 'now-price'

that is equivalent to 7.055 BTC-Core. This is after 15% cap gains and 10% state tax in the USA. Should have done this much sooner...but I think it is now or never time. I'm so

invested in BTC-Core that if this is a 'mistake' it won't matter much compared to a BTC-Core implosion. So going for it. But nice score regardless in that these BTC

only exist I will get from 'dubious' forks of BTC-Core. So taking the 'sensible' approach now. (If I believe in a pump in 2020 due to having).

Strategy = "Run Away, Run Away" Smiley

Brad


right here and now, i would just cash it out and 'diworsify', maybe even into T-bills.
Not sure if buying btc here is the right move short term. Long term-of course, yes.

You are probably correct but every BTC I've ever spent has come back to haunt my ass. Panic'd like a small 9-year-old girl (with screams) when I sold 13 BTC last year on

12/24/19 when BTC was $3,965.00 USD. Groan! I managed to thru dumb luck equipment sales and such to get back 4 BTC from such. But it really sucks. So yeah, its a gift, my

ability to sell at the wrong time or get 'dubious' ASIC equipment. The above wallet is NOT my hoard however, just what was emptied to add to such Hoard in 1 address.

I know, I'm probably an Idiot...Bitcoin you 'merciless bitch' but setting myself up for 'heartbreak' is how we roll on this romance.

I swear I'd have better odds on when to sell and how much flipping a coin with likely a lot less 'angst". As it is every decision I make on buy/sell/hodl BTC is by a 'decision'...thus

if wrong it's my 'fault'. I should just leave it all to chance, again, less angst. But for now in full HODL mode (until the next time I use my 'superpower' skills to sell at the low and

shriek like a 9-year-old yet again). Rinse/Wash/Repeat. As you can see my 'strategy' is very sophisticated, don't ya know. Smiley

So like 5 out of 5 selling BTC at the wrong time and never to recover vs HODL mode (soothing). So yeah, I got 'issues' with BTC your merciless bitch!
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January 27, 2020, 02:52:32 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

yeah

we're fucked

We've been that way since the day we were born. It was always rigged. Sad
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January 27, 2020, 03:39:06 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

yeah

we're fucked

We've been that way since the day we were born. It was always rigged. Sad

True. Just watched the movie "The Color of Space". It brought back that good old Lovecraft feeling that nothing you do matters, that love will not save you, science will not save you faith will not save you, actions will not save you. You will only be saved by random capricious fate.

I'll have wonderful nightmares when I go to sleep later today.
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January 27, 2020, 04:19:23 AM

looks like the war and pestilence trade is still on
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January 27, 2020, 04:48:57 AM

Stay up to date with the interactive Coronavirus map.



https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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January 27, 2020, 05:37:31 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

I see there are a lot of idiots with stupid messages about Kobe.
I miss the time before windows (MS-DOS) when computers were used only by people
with slightly higher intelligence (more than 80)

RIP Kobe
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January 27, 2020, 06:33:26 AM
Merited by mindrust (1), El duderino_ (1), AlcoHoDL (1)



Sure, that was 2013 and without the - justHodl, SoV is only left over from the original idea and Satoshi White Paper.


Now btc IS just more Ponzi than ever, thx to kicking out all the business (remember the 2x UASF shit show?)


Im happy BSV - Bitcoin is back on track

Make a BSV-wall Observer thread and please get lost in there ..... we can perfectly be functional whiteout you in here

Be gone be silent, leave BTC out of your writing and focus creating a thread for “your kind of people”

I just moved a legacy address bitcoin core to another address. I think Monday I'm gonna flush all the forks off of that paper wallet of BSV/BCH or whatever. At the 'now-price'

that is equivalent to 7.055 BTC-Core. This is after 15% cap gains and 10% state tax in the USA. Should have done this much sooner...but I think it is now or never time. I'm so

invested in BTC-Core that if this is a 'mistake' it won't matter much compared to a BTC-Core implosion. So going for it. But nice score regardless in that these BTC

only exist I will get from 'dubious' forks of BTC-Core. So taking the 'sensible' approach now. (If I believe in a pump in 2020 due to having).

Strategy = "Run Away, Run Away" Smiley

Brad


right here and now, i would just cash it out and 'diworsify', maybe even into T-bills.
Not sure if buying btc here is the right move short term. Long term-of course, yes.

You are probably correct but every BTC I've ever spent has come back to haunt my ass. Panic'd like a small 9-year-old girl (with screams) when I sold 13 BTC last year on

12/24/19 when BTC was $3,965.00 USD. Groan! I managed to thru dumb luck equipment sales and such to get back 4 BTC from such. But it really sucks. So yeah, its a gift, my

ability to sell at the wrong time or get 'dubious' ASIC equipment. The above wallet is NOT my hoard however, just what was emptied to add to such Hoard in 1 address.

I know, I'm probably an Idiot...Bitcoin you 'merciless bitch' but setting myself up for 'heartbreak' is how we roll on this romance.

I swear I'd have better odds on when to sell and how much flipping a coin with likely a lot less 'angst". As it is every decision I make on buy/sell/hodl BTC is by a 'decision'...thus

if wrong it's my 'fault'. I should just leave it all to chance, again, less angst. But for now in full HODL mode (until the next time I use my 'superpower' skills to sell at the low and

shriek like a 9-year-old yet again). Rinse/Wash/Repeat. As you can see my 'strategy' is very sophisticated, don't ya know. Smiley

So like 5 out of 5 selling BTC at the wrong time and never to recover vs HODL mode (soothing). So yeah, I got 'issues' with BTC your merciless bitch!

Seems good to me that you are attempting to grapple with your past moments of weakness, Searing, in order to attempt to avoid falling into similar mistakes in the future.  

It also seems like a decent plan to cash out some, if not all of your BCH and BSV now, while those shitcoins are on a recent rise, relative to BTC, which causes you to get more value for them in terms of BTC.  Sure, maybe you could get more BTC per BCH and/or BSV in the future, but seems doubtful that either of those shitcoins have any kind of meaningful future value.  

Systematically each of them continue to carry out so many seemingly greedy (self-dealing) implementations on an ongoing basis to show their desperation and inabilities to not engage in self-dealings.  Take BCH with its recent announcement of a 12.5% mining tax, and BSV with its ongoing love/hate relationship with CSW..

Their days surely seem numbered in terms of being able to sustain any kind of meaningful value and/or sustainable pumpementals of either of those shitcoins.  

We will see, we will see, and even if either or both of those shitty-ass projects were to get pumpened more in terms of their BTC value, it still should not hurt to transition most if not all of the value into king daddy.. which still likely has a good price trajectory in the next 1-2 years.... sure a bitcoin exponential price rise could get drug out longer than 2 years which would cause the four-year fractal and perhaps even the stock to flow model to seem like it might be strained or not working... but seems more likely that we are to see some kind of meaningful and strong BTC break upwards in the coming 1-2 years, and yeah it is even possible that a front-running of such exponential BTC price rise could happen.. less likely, but surely possible.

For you, Searing, if you are striving to NOT be forced to sell as much BTC in the future at inopportune times, it may be good for you to shave off a little bit of profits at various strategic BTC price points, such as shaving off 5% of your BTC value every 30% rise.  

Of course, you could tweak such a plan to take out more profits or to take out less or to change the increments of withdrawal, but sometimes it is good to take some BTC profits along the way, in order that you are less likely to have as many inopportune future panic experiences.

I remember that you had stated that you had a goal of $11,111, and maybe it would be o.k. to wait for that BTC price point before starting to shave off some of your profits..   I understand that you are overall "in profits" and you are both inclined to shave off profits, and you will still be doing quite well, even if you don't shave off a lot of profits.

But a shaving of 5% of profits at every 30% rise would look something like the below chart, and still set you up quite well for a price rise to $500k or more, if such a price rise were to happen.  For ease of calculation in the below chart, I used 10 BTC as our starting point, but of course, you could plug in any number of BTC into such a formula in order to see where you would be at, at various hypothetical BTC price points that could happen this cycle or maybe in the next 4 year cycle, perhaps?  Either way, you would be shaving off a decent amount of profits that you could use for yearly expenses or you could fold some of that back into BTC, in the event of an unexpected price drop along the way... but either way, you should be able to have enough dollars and bitcoin in order to be prepared for either BTC price direction... or even panic a little in the middle (without harming your portfolio as much because your panic would be more contained within an already existing tentatively acceptable plan that you tailored to yourself ahead of time).

Increment%   30.00%         Amount to sell%   5.00%   
   
   Sell Price         BTC balance      BTCSellamt   $ValueHoldings   soldValue   soldTotal
   $11,111.00   10.00000000      0.50000000   $111,110.00        $5,555.50        $5,555.50
   $14,444.30   9.50000000      0.47500000   $137,220.85        $6,861.04        $12,416.54
   $18,777.59   9.02500000      0.45125000   $169,467.75        $8,473.39        $20,889.93
   $24,410.87   8.57375000      0.42868750   $209,292.67        $10,464.63        $31,354.56
   $31,734.13   8.14506250      0.40725313   $258,476.45        $12,923.82        $44,278.39
   $41,254.37   7.73780938      0.38689047   $319,218.41        $15,960.92        $60,239.31
   $53,630.67   7.35091891      0.36754595   $394,234.74        $19,711.74        $79,951.04
   $69,719.88   6.98337296      0.34916865   $486,879.91        $24,344.00        $104,295.04
   $90,635.84   6.63420431      0.33171022   $601,296.68        $30,064.83        $134,359.87
   $117,826.59   6.30249410      0.31512470   $742,601.40        $37,130.07        $171,489.94
   $153,174.57   5.98736939      0.29936847   $917,112.73        $45,855.64        $217,345.58
   $199,126.94   5.68800092      0.28440005   $1,132,634.23        $56,631.71        $273,977.29
   $258,865.02   5.40360088      0.27018004   $1,398,803.27        $69,940.16        $343,917.45
   $336,524.53   5.13342083      0.25667104   $1,727,522.04        $86,376.10        $430,293.56
   $437,481.89   4.87674979      0.24383749   $2,133,489.72        $106,674.49        $536,968.04
   $568,726.46   4.63291230      0.23164562   $2,634,859.80        $131,742.99        $668,711.03
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January 27, 2020, 07:45:20 AM
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@BTC_Macro
You know what's riskier than crypto? Getting stuck in a 9-5 job and rotting away in a cubicle.
https://twitter.com/btc_macro/status/1221496401487523840?s=21
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January 27, 2020, 07:55:09 AM

Well... I just came across a post on Twitter, and now I have a better understanding of how and why China is a breeding ground for cross-species viruses.

*WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR LIFE*
Chinese guy eating live baby mice in a restaurant.

Do not click this link unless you want to be sad and disgusted. Intentionally used 1pt font size to make it more difficult to click.
https://twitter.com/Eljaboom/status/1221668016263434240

I seriously don't want to live on this planet any more.



Jeez, that’s disgusting  Shocked
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January 27, 2020, 07:59:01 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1)


Increment%   30.00%         Amount to sell%   5.00%   
   
   Sell Price         BTC balance      BTCSellamt   $ValueHoldings   soldValue   soldTotal
   $11,111.00   10.00000000      0.50000000   $111,110.00        $5,555.50        $5,555.50
   $14,444.30   9.50000000      0.47500000   $137,220.85        $6,861.04        $12,416.54
   $18,777.59   9.02500000      0.45125000   $169,467.75        $8,473.39        $20,889.93
   $24,410.87   8.57375000      0.42868750   $209,292.67        $10,464.63        $31,354.56
   $31,734.13   8.14506250      0.40725313   $258,476.45        $12,923.82        $44,278.39
   $41,254.37   7.73780938      0.38689047   $319,218.41        $15,960.92        $60,239.31
   $53,630.67   7.35091891      0.36754595   $394,234.74        $19,711.74        $79,951.04
   $69,719.88   6.98337296      0.34916865   $486,879.91        $24,344.00        $104,295.04
   $90,635.84   6.63420431      0.33171022   $601,296.68        $30,064.83        $134,359.87
   $117,826.59   6.30249410      0.31512470   $742,601.40        $37,130.07        $171,489.94
   $153,174.57   5.98736939      0.29936847   $917,112.73        $45,855.64        $217,345.58
   $199,126.94   5.68800092      0.28440005   $1,132,634.23        $56,631.71        $273,977.29
   $258,865.02   5.40360088      0.27018004   $1,398,803.27        $69,940.16        $343,917.45
   $336,524.53   5.13342083      0.25667104   $1,727,522.04        $86,376.10        $430,293.56
   $437,481.89   4.87674979      0.24383749   $2,133,489.72        $106,674.49        $536,968.04
   $568,726.46   4.63291230      0.23164562   $2,634,859.80        $131,742.99        $668,711.03

I think I have a problem with this strategy, at $70-90k I would rather try to squeeze more FIAT out of my btc than waiting for a higher price because this range will likely be the next ATH. (debatable)

I would also never sell anything till it reaches above the last ATH so selling at $11k, 14k, 18k and even 24k is just throwing your money away. (this is pretty much not debatable for me) From those price points btc may go down again and create an opportunity to buy back more bitcoins but, is it worth it?

You should sell your btc only when it is worth it. At $11k? It is definitely not.

I would start dumping a bit more % but also start doing it when it goes above $30k. Till then I would keep DCA'ing. My DCA amount would go lower and lower while the price climbing up but I would still keep buying.
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January 27, 2020, 08:01:46 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I seriously don't want to live on this planet any more.

Oooo! You're Agent Smith! https://youtu.be/JrBdYmStZJ4?t=196
Now, just a small exercise of imagination: if some humans can trigger this reaction from you, what you expect to see when you'll meet aliens?  Grin
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January 27, 2020, 08:15:00 AM

Well... I just came across a post on Twitter, and now I have a better understanding of how and why China is a breeding ground for cross-species viruses.

*WARNING: NOT SAFE FOR LIFE*
Chinese guy eating live baby mice in a restaurant.

Do not click this link unless you want to be sad and disgusted. Intentionally used 1pt font size to make it more difficult to click.
https://twitter.com/Eljaboom/status/1221668016263434240

I seriously don't want to live on this planet any more.



https://twitter.com/rnr_0/status/1221445001806217217?s=21

Saw something weird as well what they eat.....
Though I guess not all will be the same....
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January 27, 2020, 08:16:51 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Btw, I was walking in Amsterdam last evening, first time I saw one of these ...
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January 27, 2020, 08:18:37 AM

Btw, I was walking in Amsterdam last evening, first time I saw one of these ...

.... instantly loved it, and hopped in for a quick Spa. Grin

#nohomo
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January 27, 2020, 08:37:35 AM

^
Naaaah skipped it .... bob might be there and I know he loves his privacy
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January 27, 2020, 08:44:46 AM
Merited by mindrust (2), vapourminer (1)


Increment%   30.00%         Amount to sell%   5.00%   
   
   Sell Price         BTC balance      BTCSellamt   $ValueHoldings   soldValue   soldTotal
   $11,111.00   10.00000000      0.50000000   $111,110.00        $5,555.50        $5,555.50
   $14,444.30   9.50000000      0.47500000   $137,220.85        $6,861.04        $12,416.54
   $18,777.59   9.02500000      0.45125000   $169,467.75        $8,473.39        $20,889.93
   $24,410.87   8.57375000      0.42868750   $209,292.67        $10,464.63        $31,354.56
   $31,734.13   8.14506250      0.40725313   $258,476.45        $12,923.82        $44,278.39
   $41,254.37   7.73780938      0.38689047   $319,218.41        $15,960.92        $60,239.31
   $53,630.67   7.35091891      0.36754595   $394,234.74        $19,711.74        $79,951.04
   $69,719.88   6.98337296      0.34916865   $486,879.91        $24,344.00        $104,295.04
   $90,635.84   6.63420431      0.33171022   $601,296.68        $30,064.83        $134,359.87
   $117,826.59   6.30249410      0.31512470   $742,601.40        $37,130.07        $171,489.94
   $153,174.57   5.98736939      0.29936847   $917,112.73        $45,855.64        $217,345.58
   $199,126.94   5.68800092      0.28440005   $1,132,634.23        $56,631.71        $273,977.29
   $258,865.02   5.40360088      0.27018004   $1,398,803.27        $69,940.16        $343,917.45
   $336,524.53   5.13342083      0.25667104   $1,727,522.04        $86,376.10        $430,293.56
   $437,481.89   4.87674979      0.24383749   $2,133,489.72        $106,674.49        $536,968.04
   $568,726.46   4.63291230      0.23164562   $2,634,859.80        $131,742.99        $668,711.03

I think I have a problem with this strategy, at $70-90k I would rather try to squeeze more FIAT out of my btc than waiting for a higher price because this range will likely be the next ATH. (debatable)


Of course, i was trying to tailor somewhat for Searing, and I have some problems with starting so early, and yeah, he might not be very inclined to prepare for such high prices, either.

So, yeah, instead of being a steady percentage all the way up, the tweaking could be like an inverted bell curve in order to attempt to account for where you anticipate the price to go, and then transition into a kind of bell curve for where you anticipate the peak to go.  The inverted bell curve might draw more in the beginning because of a kind of risk averseness (buying into the FUD spreading scenarios) and then a kind of letting off of selling in the event that you believe that if the price gets above a certain point then it is likely to make it to a higher point that kind of results in a bell curve that anticipates withdrawing a bit more value, like you suggested, mindrust, in order to account for where you anticipate the peak to be.

Personally, I have created a more steady system for myself that continues to draw out value all the way up, but the amount of value that is drawn out is quite a bit smaller.. like in the less than .75% for every 10% rise... I might later decide to take out a BIGGER chunk with a more spontaneous approach... not sure yet.. but let's say that I exercise a lot of conservative withdrawing, and then the price kind of shoots up by doubling or tripling in value in a month, then I might get the sense that we are overly hyper, and I could make a chunk withdraw of 10% or 15%, which would be way larger than my usual conservative withdrawals, but it still would not be so much that I am really hurt in the event that the price stays irrational to the upside for a longer period of time than expected



I would also never sell anything till it reaches above the last ATH so selling at $11k, 14k, 18k and even 24k is just throwing your money away. (this is pretty much not debatable for me) From those price points btc may go down again and create an opportunity to buy back more bitcoins but, is it worth it?

I am kind of a similar opinion to you, especially when it comes to a kind of $17,500 to $24k zone... .. but still trying to account for some people getting worried about various corrections that could take place, even though many of us reasonably expect that FOMO will start to drive the price upwards at a certain point in time that will come to seem obvious after the fact - meaning that the BTC price never returns back down to those levels.  My personal strategy does just say fuck it and I do sell all the way up, but I have already decided that a long time ago that my new threshold of not giving a shit is above $5k.. but the amounts are still relatively small... (in the ball park of .75% for every 10% BTC price rise) even though, admittedly, those sales along the way up do add up, too.. yet part of my rationale for a lot of this tends to be the fact that I feel that I kind of overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, so I am not really too concerned about continuing to sell relatively small amounts all the way up.. without even hardly thinking about the matter... and just saying to myself "fuck it".. "I already overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, and who cares if the odds are pretty damned great that the BTC price is going to go shooting up.. I am doing quite well to take out some dollars along the way.. to unambiguously pay me off for my overallocation decisions in 2014-2016-ish."


You should sell your btc only when it is worth it. At $11k? It is definitely not.

That seems to be true, but I am only attempting to tailor to Searing... and he had already stated that as one of his targets.  Maybe he should not sell as much, but selling a little bit might convert him into a much stronger hand.

Another thing is that searing is way older than you.. and he has way more BTC (especially compared to his fiat reserves), so those kinds of factors can cause HODLers to become quite a bit less secure with taking so much risk with gains that they have already made.. and he has a lot of gains from his accumulating of BTC in 2014-2015 that he did not really realize (and seeming to regret not realizing more of those gains in earlier times)... so yeah, there might be some leaving of value on the table, and some need to find an amount that makes him comfortable, without blowing too much of his load too early.. that is a kind of risk for anyone selling before $26k-ish...

I would start dumping a bit more % but also start doing it when it goes above $30k. Till then I would keep DCA'ing. My DCA amount would go lower and lower while the price climbing up but I would still keep buying.

Well if you had 10x more BTC that you acquired in 2014-2016, you might be less inclined to keep accumulating BTC when you already have a lot of BTC, relative to your fiat wealth or some other wealth that you would like to have such as lambos, hookers and blow... or property such as real estate and yachts.

No matter what, there is no single strategy for all people, even if there may be some very convincing BTC price prediction models regarding certain price areas that might pass through quickly and never return to those levels.. which are also not guaranteed, even if they are very convincing.  In any event, there can be different ways that individual HODLers play their BTC cards differently to tailor their plays to their own situation and still each of them ends up accounting for the various prediction models while making decently different kinds of allocations and/or taking of profits along the way in order to NOT be holding so many BTC - even if they are quite like to go up in value.. but still preparing for both price directions and able to profit considerably from BTC prices going up in value, even if s/he has taken a decent amount of profits off of the table, s/he has a sufficiently amount of value that is still in BTC so that s/he is still making a lot of money while s/he sleeps (can that still be referred to as HODL sleep, even if a decent portion of the BTC has been sold on the way up?  I think so). 

Sometimes a HODLer could sell 50% or more of his BTC holdings, and still end up making out like a bandit.  Let's say that a HODLer has 50 BTC and decides to sell 50% of his holdings at $69k, because he is a chickenshit fuck about BTC prices going above $70k.  So, he ends up selling 25 BTC which adds up to $1,725,000, but the price keeps going up, but he really does not need more cash, so at that point, he has to decide whether to cash out some more BTC at $125,000 or just to let it ride.  Dynamics sometimes will change a bit once the BTC HODLer has taken out a decent amount of cash (way more than the amount that s/he really needs to live comfortably), and NO longer is feeling  BTC rich while being fiat poor...  Wink
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January 27, 2020, 08:46:51 AM

DJIA is down. The Fed will have to print more trillions of $$$.
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