Increment% 30.00% Amount to sell% 5.00%
Sell Price BTC balance BTCSellamt $ValueHoldings soldValue soldTotal
$11,111.00 10.00000000 0.50000000 $111,110.00 $5,555.50 $5,555.50
$14,444.30 9.50000000 0.47500000 $137,220.85 $6,861.04 $12,416.54
$18,777.59 9.02500000 0.45125000 $169,467.75 $8,473.39 $20,889.93
$24,410.87 8.57375000 0.42868750 $209,292.67 $10,464.63 $31,354.56
$31,734.13 8.14506250 0.40725313 $258,476.45 $12,923.82 $44,278.39
$41,254.37 7.73780938 0.38689047 $319,218.41 $15,960.92 $60,239.31
$53,630.67 7.35091891 0.36754595 $394,234.74 $19,711.74 $79,951.04
$69,719.88 6.98337296 0.34916865 $486,879.91 $24,344.00 $104,295.04
$90,635.84 6.63420431 0.33171022 $601,296.68 $30,064.83 $134,359.87
$117,826.59 6.30249410 0.31512470 $742,601.40 $37,130.07 $171,489.94
$153,174.57 5.98736939 0.29936847 $917,112.73 $45,855.64 $217,345.58
$199,126.94 5.68800092 0.28440005 $1,132,634.23 $56,631.71 $273,977.29
$258,865.02 5.40360088 0.27018004 $1,398,803.27 $69,940.16 $343,917.45
$336,524.53 5.13342083 0.25667104 $1,727,522.04 $86,376.10 $430,293.56
$437,481.89 4.87674979 0.24383749 $2,133,489.72 $106,674.49 $536,968.04
$568,726.46 4.63291230 0.23164562 $2,634,859.80 $131,742.99 $668,711.03
I think I have a problem with this strategy, at $70-90k I would rather try to squeeze more FIAT out of my btc than waiting for a higher price because this range will likely be the next ATH. (debatable)
Of course, i was trying to tailor somewhat for Searing, and I have some problems with starting so early, and yeah, he might not be very inclined to prepare for such high prices, either.
So, yeah, instead of being a steady percentage all the way up, the tweaking could be like an inverted bell curve in order to attempt to account for where you anticipate the price to go, and then transition into a kind of bell curve for where you anticipate the peak to go. The inverted bell curve might draw more in the beginning because of a kind of risk averseness (buying into the FUD spreading scenarios) and then a kind of letting off of selling in the event that you believe that if the price gets above a certain point then it is likely to make it to a higher point that kind of results in a bell curve that anticipates withdrawing a bit more value, like you suggested, mindrust, in order to account for where you anticipate the peak to be.
Personally, I have created a more steady system for myself that continues to draw out value all the way up, but the amount of value that is drawn out is quite a bit smaller.. like in the less than .75% for every 10% rise... I might later decide to take out a BIGGER chunk with a more spontaneous approach... not sure yet.. but let's say that I exercise a lot of conservative withdrawing, and then the price kind of shoots up by doubling or tripling in value in a month, then I might get the sense that we are overly hyper, and I could make a chunk withdraw of 10% or 15%, which would be way larger than my usual conservative withdrawals, but it still would not be so much that I am really hurt in the event that the price stays irrational to the upside for a longer period of time than expected
I would also never sell anything till it reaches above the last ATH so selling at $11k, 14k, 18k and even 24k is just throwing your money away. (this is pretty much not debatable for me) From those price points btc may go down again and create an opportunity to buy back more bitcoins but, is it worth it?
I am kind of a similar opinion to you, especially when it comes to a kind of $17,500 to $24k zone... .. but still trying to account for some people getting worried about various corrections that could take place, even though many of us reasonably expect that FOMO will start to drive the price upwards at a certain point in time that will come to seem obvious after the fact - meaning that the BTC price never returns back down to those levels. My personal strategy does just say fuck it and I do sell all the way up, but I have already decided that a long time ago that my new threshold of not giving a shit is above $5k.. but the amounts are still relatively small... (in the ball park of .75% for every 10% BTC price rise) even though, admittedly, those sales along the way up do add up, too.. yet part of my rationale for a lot of this tends to be the fact that I feel that I kind of overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, so I am not really too concerned about continuing to sell relatively small amounts all the way up.. without even hardly thinking about the matter... and just saying to myself "fuck it".. "I already overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, and who cares if the odds are pretty damned great that the BTC price is going to go shooting up.. I am doing quite well to take out some dollars along the way.. to unambiguously pay me off for my overallocation decisions in 2014-2016-ish."
You should sell your btc only when it is worth it. At $11k? It is definitely not.
That seems to be true, but I am only attempting to tailor to Searing... and he had already stated that as one of his targets. Maybe he should not sell as much, but selling a little bit might convert him into a much stronger hand.
Another thing is that searing is way older than you.. and he has way more BTC (especially compared to his fiat reserves), so those kinds of factors can cause HODLers to become quite a bit less secure with taking so much risk with gains that they have already made.. and he has a lot of gains from his accumulating of BTC in 2014-2015 that he did not really realize (and seeming to regret not realizing more of those gains in earlier times)... so yeah, there might be some leaving of value on the table, and some need to find an amount that makes him comfortable, without blowing too much of his load too early.. that is a kind of risk for anyone selling before $26k-ish...
I would start dumping a bit more % but also start doing it when it goes above $30k. Till then I would keep DCA'ing. My DCA amount would go lower and lower while the price climbing up but I would still keep buying.
Well if you had 10x more BTC that you acquired in 2014-2016, you might be less inclined to keep accumulating BTC when you already have a lot of BTC, relative to your fiat wealth or some other wealth that you would like to have such as lambos, hookers and blow... or property such as real estate and yachts.
No matter what, there is no single strategy for all people, even if there may be some very convincing BTC price prediction models regarding certain price areas that might pass through quickly and never return to those levels.. which are also not guaranteed, even if they are very convincing. In any event, there can be different ways that individual HODLers play their BTC cards differently to tailor their plays to their own situation and still each of them ends up accounting for the various prediction models while making decently different kinds of allocations and/or taking of profits along the way in order to NOT be holding so many BTC - even if they are quite like to go up in value.. but still preparing for both price directions and able to profit considerably from BTC prices going up in value, even if s/he has taken a decent amount of profits off of the table, s/he has a sufficiently amount of value that is still in BTC so that s/he is still making a lot of money while s/he sleeps (can that still be referred to as HODL sleep, even if a decent portion of the BTC has been sold on the way up? I think so).
Sometimes a HODLer could sell 50% or more of his BTC holdings, and still end up making out like a bandit. Let's say that a HODLer has 50 BTC and decides to sell 50% of his holdings at $69k, because he is a chickenshit fuck about BTC prices going above $70k. So, he ends up selling 25 BTC which adds up to $1,725,000, but the price keeps going up, but he really does not need more cash, so at that point, he has to decide whether to cash out some more BTC at $125,000 or just to let it ride. Dynamics sometimes will change a bit once the BTC HODLer has taken out a decent amount of cash (way more than the amount that s/he really needs to live comfortably), and NO longer is feeling BTC rich while being fiat poor...
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