Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Wondering how can Iowa vote for a gay?

Pressing a button, baby.

How could you have missed that detail?

The Irish PM likes his fellas too and no one there seems to mind. That traditionally hasn't been a bastion of inclusiveness until recent times.

Mhh.
I think it is different,
In Iowa it isn't technically a primary election, but a caucus, you have to actually stand in a designated area to support your candidate:

Each precinct divides its delegate seats among the candidates in proportion to caucus goers' votes. Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a preference group). An area may also be designated for undecided participants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#Democratic_Party

[JayJuanGee]

and in a patent attempt to avoid discovery, Craig has claimed that the bonded courier is an attorney and his communications are privileged. Def. Jan. 28, 2020

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.389.0.pdf

Wait, so now the mysterious bonded courier, who Faketoshi knew nothing about or when/if he'd even show up, showed up with a list of public keys and also a law degree? Do many couriers work as part time attorneys You can't make this shit up! Bravo CSW! BRAVO!!

Sometimes it can become confusing in getting caught up in the kind of baloney and contradictions that sometimes could come out through legal pleadings, and surely it does probably allow for a bit more flexibility to be a defendant.. and also to be in a civil procedure.. but at some, point there has got to be some abuse of process considerations that even would rise to criminal levels.. the amount of seemingly rolling with the punches opportunistic lying that CSW entertains.. just beyond credibility..... , yet maybe it is just some level of wishful thinking that I have regarding the locking up of that full-of-shit fraudster. 

[Last of the V8s]

[bitserve]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

[Gyrsur]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?

https://i.imgur.com/UvukrWk.png

1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

so, "my" support line is at $9135.0 (Bitstamp). you can see it in the screenshot of the "bitstamp" data with daily candle of "DATE: 2020-02-02" and daily low of "L: 9135.0".

https://i.imgur.com/MQXw55L.png


TO DO according to my trading rules:

1.) if the today daily close (UTC) is above 9135.0 I will BUY on a Deribit DEMO account.

2.) if the today daily close (UTC) is below 9135.0 I will SELL on a Deribit DEMO account.

https://i.imgur.com/Evvt1BY.png

so the daily close (UTC) was above $9135.0.




and I bought 1 lot on a Deribit DEMO account.

[JayJuanGee]

in my opinion TA is not a toolbox to predict the future (which is not possible seriously). but it can be a toolbox to get a statistical edge to more than 50 percent right decisions in trading.

example: will the daily close be above or below the support line below?



1.) if the daily close will be above the support line the probability is more than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

2.) if the daily close will be below the support line the probability is less than 50 percent that the price will rise again the next day.

More/less than 50% is almost like nothing. It could be 50.01% vs 49.99%. Only when TA can offer an EV of a few % points it can become useful... even if barely in most cases.

mostly true but the second weapon is your money management. even if you have a success rate of less than 50 percent of your trades you can be profitable because you have less large winners versus more small losers.

I don't know about the exact math, but seems to me that you need better than slightly more than 50% in order to actually have an edge, and so should not be fucking around unless your odds are in the 70%plus arena... and how the fuck do you measure it anyhow?

Yeah, a coin toss is 50/50, so getting a bit of an edge will help you in that case, but TA contains many variables and does not even measure all of the variables and sometimes there are folks out there who purposefully manipulate against the TA.. just to fuck folks out of money.

Maybe in the end, I am saying fuck TA and suggesting to establish a system that makes money no matter what.  and stop fucking around with TA that only gives you slightly better than 50% and you are not even sure about that.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

[Raja_MBZ]

Heh...

An Iowa woman tried to retract her support for Pete Buttigieg after learning he's gay

https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-woman-retracts-pete-buttigieg-support-leans-gay-caucus-video-2020-2

I don't care if the POTUS is gay... but I seriously hope that US citizens don't vote for ''very stable genius" again.

[Gyrsur]

I don't know about the exact math, but seems to me that you need better than slightly more than 50% in order to actually have an edge, and so should not be fucking around unless your odds are in the 70%plus arena... and how the fuck do you measure it anyhow?

Yeah, a coin toss is 50/50, so getting a bit of an edge will help you in that case, but TA contains many variables and does not even measure all of the variables and sometimes there are folks out there who purposefully manipulate against the TA.. just to fuck folks out of money.

Maybe in the end, I am saying fuck TA and suggesting to establish a system that makes money no matter what.  and stop fucking around with TA that only gives you slightly better than 50% and you are not even sure about that.

very true JJG but for a bullet proof system you need mostly deep pockets to drive the market in "your" direction to get out with a profit in 70 to 80 percent of the trades.

[JayJuanGee]

I'll take a moment to talk about my own trading experience, except instead of BTC I've been solely attempting to short BSV with massive leverage in very short term trades (5 minutes to 2-3 hours). I admit the learning curve was pretty steep and on my second day I got liquidated. Then I hit it again the next day, determined to do better. I lost half of my 2nd deposit. Still not wanting to give up, I plowed through the 3rd day and finally got a few wins. 6 days in and I'm finally back to break even, LOL.

Luckily the overall market trend has been working on my side and minus the occasional pump, I expect it to for the long term. I just don't want to be caught with my pants down when Coingeek releases the next round of BS PRs about how "new evidence proves Craig is Satoshi." Likewise, I don't want to miss the shipwreck if BSV death spirals due to an unintended fork, or any number of other potential reasons, of which there are many.



The platform I'm using leaves these nice lil arrows reminding you where you made your entry/exits... For the first 2-3 days I didn't understand what the hell they were there for.

Fuck Bcash SV... that piece of shit.


Even though I think that it is a piece of shit, and I agree that the scammers are likely engaging in an unsustainable pumpening, it seems way too fucking risky to short, even a piece of shit like that.

Maybe you believe that you are carrying out some kind of patriotic duty, but unless you are some BIG ASS whale, you should already realize that some of the scammers may have already stacked the cards against you with their lack of liquidity and also their  pumpening of misinformation hype that can fuck you up the ass with one of the BIGGEST of unexpected Green dildos...

Your patriotism, does NOT seem worth it, and likely to better just employ your resources into positive energies of stacking sats...

fuck getting involved in that scam coin.... unless you just happen to be rich as fuck and you don't want or need to accumulate BTC wealth.  If you have more than 1,000 BTC, then maybe you have BTC to burn.. otherwise, seems better to just stack sats.. because you are a small potato and your shorting and your ideology is not going to be enough as the amount of scam tools that those fucktwats likely have at their disposal to burn cash for that piece of shit coin. 

[bitserve]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

[Majormax]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Interesting...

Bitcoin may enhance the risk and return profile of institutional investment portfolios. More in my "Investment Case for Bitcoin" presentation. Source: https://vaneck.com/globalassets/home/us/insights/blogs/investment-outlook/vaneck-digital-assets--the-investment-case-for-bitcoin.pdf

Source: https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1224708731650412547

[realr0ach]

An Iowa woman tried to retract her support for Pete Buttigieg after learning he's gay

It's a slippery slope.  There's a big difference in not using the power of the state to persecute gay people and the actual act of institutionalized gayness.  You cannot have institutionalized gayness for numerous reasons.  The basis of marriage for instance is nothing more than women attempting to use men as an insurance policy.  In the old days it was insurance against being eaten by sabretooth tigers, and now it's insurance against having to work or go broke and ending up homeless.

The unalterable female algorithm is to find a male and attempt to extract resources from it and get it to provide her and her offspring with protection against physical and fiscal threats.  In this dynamic, it's the man that is required to bring all the inputs to the table (resources and protection and such), while the woman is not bringing much of anything.  It requires marriage for a stable civilization, otherwise you'll end up with a bunch of violent, uneducated, bastard children burning everything to the ground.

The burden of making marriage work is on the man since it's him that is providing the inputs.  So what if the man refuses to provide those inputs?  Society collapses.  The only way men as an aggregate WILL EVER agree to provide those inputs is under patriarchy.  So, institutionally, aka government policy, marriage can be nothing else besides a strict patriachy with no (((feminism))) or gay marriage or any other nonsense that causes the entire fabric of society to collapse.

[JayJuanGee]

The Financial Times Alphaville explains what the halvening (pardon the gobbledygook) is.

Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price
By: Jemima Kelly

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01/30/1580390916000/Bitcoin-s--halvening--won-t-boost-its-price-


In the comments, I found our old friend NLC

That above linked article is behind some kind of paywall (registration wall).  Me, not gonna do it.   

[kurious]

Interesting...

Bitcoin may enhance the risk and return profile of institutional investment portfolios. More in my "Investment Case for Bitcoin" presentation. Source: https://vaneck.com/globalassets/home/us/insights/blogs/investment-outlook/vaneck-digital-assets--the-investment-case-for-bitcoin.pdf

Source: https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1224708731650412547

This makes me smile.  A 'small amount of Bitcoin may enhance... portfolios'?  Bless.

A small amount of Bitcoin.... has enhanced some portfolios so much it now makes up a huge part of those portfolios, simply because it's outperformed most other investments by orders of magnitude.   

Some people didn't wait a whole decade to start thinking about buying Bitcoin.   

But hey, you!  Yes, you institutions?  You're in luck - It's not too late.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know about the exact math, but seems to me that you need better than slightly more than 50% in order to actually have an edge, and so should not be fucking around unless your odds are in the 70%plus arena... and how the fuck do you measure it anyhow?

Yeah, a coin toss is 50/50, so getting a bit of an edge will help you in that case, but TA contains many variables and does not even measure all of the variables and sometimes there are folks out there who purposefully manipulate against the TA.. just to fuck folks out of money.

Maybe in the end, I am saying fuck TA and suggesting to establish a system that makes money no matter what.  and stop fucking around with TA that only gives you slightly better than 50% and you are not even sure about that.

very true JJG but for a bullet proof system you need mostly deep pockets to drive the market in "your" direction to get out with a profit in 70 to 80 percent of the trades.

I don't mean to spout out about my system... or maybe I do, but I think that my system is just to accumulate BTC... so it is kind of bullet proof as long as ultimately BTC goes up in the long run.. of course, if BTC does not go up in the long run then it does not end up being bullet proof... so in that sense, my system seems to be bullet proof so long as BTC price continues to go up.. and BTC prices have been continuing to go up, especially if we start to measure from 2015.. but we could even start measuring from late 2013, and overall BTC prices have largely been going up.

There are also ways to shave off enough profits, within my system in order that even if BTC prices were to go to zero, then at least the principle would be recovered, but if you invested no more than you were willing to lose, then you should also be both financially and psychologically prepared to ride the matter to zero, if such an extremely unlikely scenario were to play out.. which seems a lot less likely with the more passage of time and the more that BTC continues to go up in price, gradually and with ups and downs along the way.

[JayJuanGee]

It's very nice how $9K is holding (for now) and people don't give a shit about it anymore. Slowly stepping and maintaining price without any FOMO signs sounds great. Even a little retrace would not do any harm right now.

While holding $9000 is welcome the daily BBands are sloping up so many traders are going to be looking to buy if price drops to the middle BBand at $8900.

Which basically "confirms" there is good buying support for a little retrace. And probably even more support for a bigger one. Also it is not as if sellers were pilling up to sell. Much the contrary.

I want to see the price over $10K as much as everyone else... but I love how smoothly the price is rising step by step and doing the proper retests.

Looks good so far.

Boring is best. A little more time to establish support at 7900 might be needed. ..then a few months to get back through 9xxx. would be the most sustainable way forward. Another spike like last Jun/Sep would not be a good sign.

10500 is the first real resistance, and it needs to be taken real slow. So far, so good.

I don't really have any problem with what you are saying, Majormax - except maybe with your term: "need".  

I mean, really, bitcoin no doesn't work like dat.

Bitcoin does not just do things gradually.. at some point, we will have an explosion and thereafter a correction after the explosion.  

It is just the way that things work out when you have an s-curve exponential adoption asset like bitcoin and people involved, too.

[JayJuanGee]

The Financial Times Alphaville explains what the halvening (pardon the gobbledygook) is.

Bitcoin’s “halvening” won’t boost its price
By: Jemima Kelly

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01/30/1580390916000/Bitcoin-s--halvening--won-t-boost-its-price-


In the comments, I found our old friend NLC

That above linked article is behind some kind of paywall (registration wall).  Me, not gonna do it.   

Bypass paywall works in chrome. https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome
Was going to copy the article here until I saw the copyright warnings.

I am too fraidy kitty...  I am NOT that interested in reading the article...

[marcus_of_augustus]

sounds like things in china are starting to fall apart ... watch out for retaliatory actions, cyber-strikes, market-dumps, etc.

Here's one from the fringe that might get your hair standing up.

https://gnews.org/102888/

On the 3rd February, a video about the Wuhan coronavirus was published on a Chinese website named Xilu. Governed by the Chinese Military Commission (CMC), the highest-level Chinese military authority, and operated by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Xilu is the most important official information source of Chinese military force. Its status is equivalent to those of the Pentagon and West Point in the US. The information published there must be approved by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the CMC and thus is of utmost importance.

According to the latest uploaded video, the Wuhan coronavirus was not naturally evolved. It was not originated from the Huanan  Seafood Market, or from wildlife such as bat, rat or snake etc.. With four genetic sections edited from Zhoushan bat, this virus is artificially synthesised. It is non-immunable, untreatable, uncontrollable, and contagious between humans. ...