Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Most here don't get the emerging medium term big picture.

Sadly, it would probably go along the lines of masterluc- that "Vanga" could be right again, but not for any "fundamental" reasons.
I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.

After that, a recovery would start, maybe even reaching back to 10K or thereabout at the halving.
Still, kept all btc (since I am not good at re-entering), increased treasury bills position (sold 67% of equities).

[hodl_2015]

[...]
Covid19 at the gates?
Venetia is not far from my home, and there are carneval events until mid next week with many north-italian visitors taking place.
Mankind is still too dumb to control an outbreak this big. I bet this will shake the economies quite intensively in the near future.

Shipping from China has stopped, while large container ships have less than 1 crew person per 1000 containers, The ships are practically unmanned.
Yet tourist keep flying around the world meeting other large groups of tourist from other parts of the world in very confined tourist attractions.
It's the perfect way to spread a human virus as fast and far as possible.
The average age of tourists, traveling to a climate they are not used to and eating food they are not used to all does not help there immune system.

In a strong statement, Israel's health ministry warned that nine South Korean tourists who visited the country recently have tested positive for coronavirus upon returning home.
The ministry called on anyone who may have come into close contact with the tour group for an extended period of time to self-quarantine.
The tourists visited some of the most popular sites in Israel and the West Bank from February 8 to 16, increasing the chance of a large-scale exposure in the region, the ministry said Saturday.

They are praised for giving out a warning on the sabbath, yet I read nothing about (temporary) halting this perfect way to spread the virus.
It may have worked in this case but I think we are close to passing the point where halting tourist from specific countries would work.

[jojo69]

nobody, anywhere, seems to be taking the situation seriously

[OutOfMemory]

nobody, anywhere, seems to be taking the situation seriously

This is human. Most take situations seriously when the maximum damage is almost already done.
We're chatting apes, not much more.
Einstein said that mankind is able to use a few % of their brain capacity, but i say he was way too optimistic.

(edited my mediocre english to better english, which is still worse than usual today)

[OutOfMemory]

Most here don't get the emerging medium term big picture.

Sadly, it would probably go along the lines of masterluc- that "Vanga" could be right again, but not for any "fundamental" reasons.
I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.

After that, a recovery would start, maybe even reaching back to 10K or thereabout at the halving.
Still, kept all btc (since I am not good at re-entering), increased treasury bills position (sold 67% of equities).

Well, i still have this kind of scenario in the back of my head. It's just that i sold BTC mostly at the most unfavorable times in the past, so i stay away from selling since 10/2018.
I'm doubting #hodl from time to time, as well as now. Not to save fiat, but to upsize my btc "stash" more quickly than using DCA. This has gone a bit wrong in the past times, which keeps me from selling, on the other hand it made me able to really hodl now, even down to pretty low prices.

[Searing]

Don't let them scare you into reporting you "holdings"!

Tell them NOTHING!

The IRS has known about me since 2013. Banker reported me to SEC for an over 10k sale to get KNC Jupiter Miner from Sweden...
...went to phone meeting with a banker and SEC (voice phone SEC end) and banker's 'proof' was BTC was 'evil' and no way I had
done taxes (spring 2014 with new IRS crypto rules) slap'd down my CPA done Tax Forms paid and SEC guy in a 'resigned' voice is
why am I here? ...so you can account for the BTC now or when they come later..I myself when the IRS or Whomever comes by saying
I am not legit due to my (1) trophy girlfriend (2) boat on the lawn (3) flashy car etc, will show them my 'legit' crypto earnings and tell
whoever they are to go 'pound sand' ..eventually KYC will be for all exchanges...so it will only get worse IMHO. (hope it is not as
bad as all that ...but soured me on what to expect as a newbie till now from 2013.

thats why i have signed some old mining addys with "i am so and so and i mined to this addy between approximately this and this date with this hardware at this pool",  saved pool payout logs and screenshots, kept gpu receipts, pics of mining setups etc.  

i always figured i would have to account for those early btc.

it was fine....first went to CPA she said did you spend any BTC you mined..me nope...end of problem...then 2 weeks before the tax deadline of April in 2014....the IRS came out with the

2014 guidelines....went to bank SEC above....thought I was (and happy about it) going to have to pay like $3k to IRS...went to amend taxes with CPA ..she read the IRS 2014

guidelines and laughed and said "you are a farmer' ..thought she had lost her frigging mind...but indeed wrote off all the equipment etc..came out better in HODL'ing BTC back

then as a result and such...

Anyway, the 'die' was cast...I'm as honest as the frigging snow...i even put my eBay sales and sig campaign money down as income....each year... I may have made mistakes

but the whole you deliberately messed with your taxes IRS line is not gonna fly if ever it comes to pass in my future...

probably a blessing in disguise actually ...I now have a 7-year track record as a crypto 'small home business' etc. No regrets.

later

brad

[fillippone]

Have been reading it this morning about Italy and some villages/cities on lockdown... Is that for real?

Yes.
Forget the lockdown you saw in China, but yes, some villages are on “limited lockdown”.
I think it is a more “strong moral suasion” to stay at home rather than a true ban (in Italy we have laws, contrary to China).

BREAKING: Italy orders mass closures after #coronavirus cases quadruple. Officials ordered schools, public buildings, restaurants and coffee shops to close. The emergency measures come as a cluster of new COVID19 infections emerged, including some who had not been to China (DW)
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1230970101828071430?s=20

True. But limited to some of the villages.
I don’t know if it happened also elsewhere, but situation is quickly escalating and I see (read) panick in the streets.
Trains being blocked, Chinese people being attacked and beaten on the streets.

Link in Italian:
https://www.quotidiano.net/cronaca/coronavirus-psicosi-torino-1.5041421

Covid19 at the gates?
Venetia is not far from my home, and there are carneval events until mid next week with many north-italian visitors taking place.
Mankind is still too dumb to control an outbreak this big. I bet this will shake the economies quite intensively in the near future.

Covid19 inside the gate.
Government is actually locking down 50,000 people in the infection cluster.
They are issuing special restrictive laws.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Can’t remember the forum this dead/quiet.....

[OutOfMemory]

Covid19 at the gates?
Venetia is not far from my home, and there are carneval events until mid next week with many north-italian visitors taking place.
Mankind is still too dumb to control an outbreak this big. I bet this will shake the economies quite intensively in the near future.

Covid19 inside the gate.
Government is actually locking down 50,000 people in the infection cluster.
They are issuing special restrictive laws.

There's still a border between my home and italy, but it's open to heavy tourism as well, especially at carneval, easter and christmas season.
I also got a nice plate of venetian mortadella last weekend.
I'm not sure if i would have denied passed on it today.  

This is fine...

[Raja_MBZ]

Can’t remember the forum this dead/quiet.....

This really feels like calm before the storm TBH.

[jojo69]

None of our current governance models seem to be equipped to deal with a situation like this.

The totalitarian setups lack the transparency, the pluralist setups lack the raw power and will.

[AlcoHoDL]

Can’t remember the forum this dead/quiet.....

Fortunately, we have COVID-19 that keeps it alive! 

[Arriemoller]

Well, it seems like we will have to live with it, we are all gonna catch it and those of us who survive will have to just carry on.

"Chinese scientist warns Covid-19 may become an established illness, like influenza, as mainland reports its lowest number of new cases since Wuhan lockdown began"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051492/coronavirus-deaths-taper-hubei-108-confirmed-thursday

[becoin]

I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.

That can only happen if Fed sharply raises interest rates. That will never happen! Too much debt! Too late for conventional monetary policy!

[hodl_2015]

It looks like the virus can not only be transmitted before there are any symptoms, but also quite long before the medial tests can detect it. These situations could also be explained by the tests just not being very accurate, which is equally worrisome.

Hospitals seem to be a large source of new infections, also outside China, but screening of medical personnel is not implemented yet or is not very effective. I hope hospitals and researches will work together to figure out how this virus behaves and how to best deal with it soon. For now, staying healthy and having access to pure oxygen when lung problems develop seems to best remedy.

[Indymoney]

"Chinese scientist warns Covid-19 may become an established illness, like influenza, as mainland reports its lowest number of new cases since Wuhan lockdown began"

This is so frustrating to read. China really as whole is an asshole nation!

Now its time for China to review his many policies specially related to human rights as they are paying for this all.

[OutOfMemory]

"Chinese scientist warns Covid-19 may become an established illness, like influenza, as mainland reports its lowest number of new cases since Wuhan lockdown began"

This is so frustrating to read. China really as whole is an asshole nation!

This is not even the worst.
Half of the world is abusing china as a cheap delivery whore.
We, as customers, are indirectly supporting this "by accident", when buying goods that were more or less made in china. But not only.
It's more like the human made system itself is an asshole system, imo. It implies asshole nations and gives them room to grow.

[Biodom]

I expect a sharp drawdown in many assets including both stock markets and btc, maybe even gold, somewhere between now and late March.

That can only happen if Fed sharply raises interest rates. That will never happen! Too much debt! Too late for conventional monetary policy!

Q: what does this have to do with the interest rates?
A: nothing

It would go down because there would be less E in P/E.
We shall see.

[Globb0]

That little feeling of joy in the morning when you have a fresh cup of coffee and 5+ unread WO pages.

I for sure cannot share this with anyone IRL 

then you end up triple posting 

[Globb0]

A 20-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, traveled 400 miles(675 km) north to Anyang where she infected five relatives, without ever showing signs of infection, Chinese scientists reported on Friday, offering new evidence that the virus can be spread asymptomatically.

[...]

All five of her relatives developed COVID-19 pneumonia, but as of Feb. 11, the young woman still had not developed any symptoms, her chest CT remained normal and she had no fever, stomach or respiratory symptoms, such as cough or sore throat.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-study/wuhan-woman-with-no-symptoms-infects-five-relatives-with-coronavirus-study-idUSKBN20G00J

Italy has now two deaths.
Apparently the first infected had no symptoms. And now is negative to every test.
People here are panicking.
This means people are over reacting to rational risks.
Of course this has layered implication, even on the economic side of the story.

I saw someone in Disneyland epcot with a face mask on.

I thought you poor fool. Every ride, every handrail every button has been pressed by 5000 people in the last few hours. Your puny mask aint doing shit.  (hehe Im learning American dialects) punks. 2 weeks incubation on surfaces. boom!