Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

I don't know if you've sold yet...

No. Nap time and screaming headache achievement unlocked, however.

Probably gonna wait a bit longer and see what happens with price. If it dips back below $14k, I'll probably pull my coins back to avoid doing anything too stupid.

Finger is figuratively on the trigger for the time being. Just don't have the nerve to pull, yet.

I don't feel too bad selling a chunk above $14k USD/BTC, but recognize the decision is partly fueled by negative emotions, so, having trouble reconciling the situation in my mind.

feelsbadman.gif

[1715102775]

1715102775

[1715102775]

1715102775

[1715102775]

1715102775

[JimboToronto]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

By all means enjoy your coins. Just don't sell them for no reason (e.g. because of the price) and keep fiat currencies.

Want a new house? Sell just enough to buy one. Want to take a holiday? Ditto. Hookers, blow and Lambos your thing? Go nuts. Just keep as much of your wealth in Bitcoin as possible.

In the meantime, buy more coins whenever you can. Got a few grand left over after your holiday or hookers/blow/Lambo spree? Put it back into Bitcoin.

It's easy.

[philipma1957]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

By all means enjoy your coins. Just don't sell them for no reason (e.g. because of the price) and keep fiat currencies.

Want a new house? Sell just enough to buy one. Want to take a holiday? Ditto. Hookers, blow and Lambos your thing? Go nuts. Just keep as much of your wealth in Bitcoin as possible.

In the meantime, buy more coins whenever you can. Got a few grand left over after your holiday or hookers/blow/Lambo spree? Put it back into Bitcoin.

It's easy.

I am laughing out loud.

hookers,blow,Lambo spree.

 Btc could go to 20,000,000 overnight and I would not be spending on that.

I would get a new house with a large barn to put the mining gear in.

I spent 9700 on paypal credit buying mining gear. In July-Aug.

It is a way to get btc with paypal on credit.

I mined and held. In July Aug Sept Oct.

I moved the 4200 worth of btc I earned Since July 1 to coinbase. And selling it off in 200 usd pieces. As price goes up.

As I sell some off I am still earning coins.

It is more my mining side I am talking about. I usually mine and hodl wait for a nice uptick and sell pieces slowly.

Other hodl moves are just this hodl.

[explorer]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

By all means enjoy your coins. Just don't sell them for no reason (e.g. because of the price) and keep fiat currencies.

Want a new house? Sell just enough to buy one. Want to take a holiday? Ditto. Hookers, blow and Lambos your thing? Go nuts. Just keep as much of your wealth in Bitcoin as possible.

In the meantime, buy more coins whenever you can. Got a few grand left over after your holiday or hookers/blow/Lambo spree? Put it back into Bitcoin.

It's easy.

+5 WO sMerit

Depending on your situation, I advocate 1-5yr living expenses (harvested above 5x previous cycle ATH, preferably) in dirty fiat (assuming no other income source) Otherwise, leave it in.

[BobLawblaw]

I moved the 4200 worth of btc I earned Since July 1 to coinbase. And selling it off in 200 usd pieces. As price goes up.

Those short term gains tax penalty, tho...

[Biodom]

I moved the 4200 worth of btc I earned Since July 1 to coinbase. And selling it off in 200 usd pieces. As price goes up.

Those short term gains tax penalty, tho...

most of it goes to income and taxed as this in his case anyway, probably (since it was mined).
cap gains are only on the difference between at what price btc was when he mined it and the sell price.

[explorer]

I moved the 4200 worth of btc I earned Since July 1 to coinbase. And selling it off in 200 usd pieces. As price goes up.

Those short term gains tax penalty, tho...

most of it goes to income and taxed as this in his case anyway, probably (since it was mined).
cap gains are only on the difference between at what price btc was when he mined it and the sell price.

I don't know US tax law, but it is a business (mining) so may be some benefits to offset there too. 

[philipma1957]

Lot of offsets.

9700 in gear is an offset.

[Toxic2040]

new yearly high at $14,328.00 gentlemen


#dyor




4h


kitteh climbs on shoulder for a kiss
D

#stronghands

[lightfoot]

Hm. I built up a bit of a cash reserve this year so I don't have any need to sell bitcoins at this time. Depending on how things go I might pump some cash into LTC and transfer it to bitcoin (less fees) to burn the cash reserve down a bit.

[philipma1957]

Last 15 days

2020-10-21  12,584
2020-10-22  12,963
2020-10-23  12,914
2020-10-24  13,053
2020-10-25  13,077
2020-10-26  13,063
2020-10-27  13,446
2020-10-28  13,372
2020-10-29  13,321
2020-10-30  13,406
2020-10-31  13,766
2020-11-01  13,762
2020-11-02  13,545
2020-11-03  13,632
2020-11-04  13,908



note pulled info from here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.msg55488187#msg55488187

as I noted in an earlier post { https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55491561#msg55491561 }

 the  best streak of above 12,584

was from 2017-12-06 to 2018-01-15  that was 41 days

so 15 down and 26 to go.

   This will be a really nice streak to break.

  If we stay hot we break the streak on Dec. 2, 2020

so 2020-12-02 here we come.

[explorer]

Last 15 days

2020-10-21  12,584
2020-10-22  12,963
2020-10-23  12,914
2020-10-24  13,053
2020-10-25  13,077
2020-10-26  13,063
2020-10-27  13,446
2020-10-28  13,372
2020-10-29  13,321
2020-10-30  13,406
2020-10-31  13,766
2020-11-01  13,762
2020-11-02  13,545
2020-11-03  13,632
2020-11-04  13,908



note pulled info from here


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.msg55488187#msg55488187

as I noted in an earlier post { https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55491561#msg55491561 }

 the  best streak of above 12,584

was from 2017-12-06 to 2018-01-15  that was 41 days

so 15 down and 26 to go.

   This will be a really nice streak to break.

  If we stay hot we break the streak on Dec. 2, 2020

so 2020-12-02 here we come.

   Perhaps the obvious eludes me; what is the significance of 12,584?

[explorer]

new yearly high at $14,328.00 gentlemen


[snip]

That is sooo last hour, Toxic! 

[Heater]

Nice little pump there.

Passing AUD$20,000 on local exchanges.

[heslo]

Nice little pump there.

Passing AUD$20,000 on local exchanges.

Yeah that put a smile on my face too

[Toxic2040]

SN8 cryo header tank test completed  15km flight next couple days maybe?




--------

re  last hour

#dyor

#stronghands

[JayJuanGee]

technology adoption always follows a s-curve. the beginning is flat, then it becomes exponential (looks like a hockey stick) and when mass adoption occurs it shoots straight up and only starts flattening when saturated (widely adopted).


when the new tech is money the graph not only shows the adoption of users but also the value of the money.

when rockets are fired up to reach space they need to carry enough energy to overcome earths gravity. they need to acquire escape velocity.  if they don't get over this threshold they could not leave earth.

bitcoin expands in short violent run-ups followed by years of loss of value and consolidation. this circular pattern conditions bitcoin hodlers to feel bad about "not selling at the top" in order to own a lot of cash and furthermore to later buy back more bitcoin, when price reached the bottom of the cycle.

especially when reaching "life changing" or "fuck you" amounts of money. especially when the hodler realizes that he/she could have escaped the rat race with that amount of fiat. since the bear markets are usually multi year, the hodler has plenty of time to develop this regret.

it feels bad to look back to previous all-time highs and punching the numbers in a calculator and figuring out how many btc one could have bought if and only if...      but be aware that there is another feeling that is even worse: having sold to early. remember all the posts in this forum where folks argued about how rational it was to take profits and sell btc for $20. or $200 or $2000

during one of the next giant run-ups bitcoin will reach escape velocity. which means the old game of multiyear bears will not occur anymore. bitcoin will enter the steep upward phase of the s-curve.

don't be a multiyear hardened btc hodler that finally learned how to sell at an anticipated local top only to see the price never coming back. develop a strategy to avoid this worst possible outcome: a bitcoin hodler with zero bitcoin in that moment of history when bitcoin is winning. with strategy I don't mean some weird trading strategy. trading btc is a losing game for 99% of players.


the only way to make sure you always have some bitcoin is to always keep some/most bitcoin.


my own strategy is very simple: when bitcoin reaches escape velocity I want to still own at least 50% of my stash. in my mind half my stash is reserved for my descendants. they are in Uber-cold storage. I will never touch them. I will never punch them in any calculator to figure out momentary fiat value.

with the other half I may or may not try to play the "sell at top" game. not convinced yet since all I would get for my precious btc is lots of melting dirty fiat. problem is that this is the only way ever for me to acquire more btc.  maybe I should only play that game with a quarter of my stash.

what is your plan?


edited

Of course, I don't know your situation with any kind of precision, but you could still be quite well off without even selling close to 50 % of your BTC stash... Just cash out BTC from time to time whenever you might need it, and I suppose it is better if you do not have highfalutin tastes.    

I maintain a spreadsheet that I adjust from time to time based on price movements and changes to the actual quantities of my BTC stash.  Sure of course, I had to make some BIGGER adjustments to the projections based on some incidental and unintended losing of BTC along the way... but still, even my projection out to nearly 1.5 million still shows that under my current tentative plan, I would still retain nearly 82% of the quantity of BTC that I hold today... and that is kind of presuming that the BTC price shoots straight up.. which, it likely will not.  

Sure, it also presumes that I won't lose anymore which is not exactly a sure thing or that I won't shave some extra BTC off the top along the way - but even from the numbers that I am showing, I don't really see any need to be shaving extra off the top... but maybe I just have to learn to live richer and blow some BTC on higher level luxury goods.  

I think that the point that I am making is that there does not seem to be needs to sell high quantity of BTC in order to live quite well and that should be especially true with BTC HODLers that have been in the game longer and especially true if BTC does anything close to its earlier escape velocity performances.. ONLY needs to be a fraction and still cause a lot of longer term HODLers to become quite richie without any major needs to cash out large portions of their BTC stashes... my thinkening..

what is your plan?

I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

Of course, if you have not been into BTC for very long, then it takes longer to build the stash... So you have to keep building your stash, and then at some point you will likely realize that your stash has been built enough.

[bitebits]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

Cold storage.

[explorer]

<snip...strategic cashing out>

hodel is all good, but I suppose at our age, and at some point, you gotta start thinking...you can't take it with you.

Cold storage.

Cold Dead Hands?

[JayJuanGee]

If price of btc was to be based on 2017 dec profit levels for a miner we would be at 78k

We are not in 2017.. we are still in late 2016...   What would the numbers be for late 2016... not sure, which month, but let's say about December 2016...

We reach 2017 when we breach the old ATH. that is $19,666...

We have not even come close to that, yet... but we did breach the June 2019 high.. so there is something in that.

Regarding mining.. seems like a death spiral going on... we got a 16% reduction a few days ago, and mining hashrate is still dropping and targeting another 14% drop, or so?  Go figure.