MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[freedombit]

The database has been leaked, but the "crowd detectives" that have looked into it have not reached any useful conclusions either, in spite of their considerable technical expertise.

I feel there is at least one huge-gaping conclusion that is very useful: More than two people have a list of the final Bitcoin addresses where the Bitcoin was last available before becoming "temporarily unavailable" and they have not released this information. This fact is a very important fact that we cannot forget.

To get to the truth, the investigators need information from outside the database: they must subpoena bank records, interview people, get help from police forces in other countries...  All that will take much more than 1 month.

What truth might they be seeking with all such information? They do not need any of that to know what addresses are currently holding the missing Bitcoin. The who will come out eventually. Every time that Bitcoin value switches hands, its another link that could lead to the original thief.

[bitcoinvest]

so let me undesrtand...

We are talking about database that has been modified etc....

In a company like that ( see the bitcoin movie how they entered the server room, such a security) they want us to believe they did not had back up of live server? i create websites and i take back up every hour! even if they erase the back up's i think there is way for the police to get them back.

But the main thing is like you said outside... where is the fiat?

by the way bitcoins.com is for sale by Mark long time ago... after the United States court stopped him from selling after a month he putted for sale like we see now with the other domains about 400 if i am right. Probably the owner wasn't MtGox but Tibbane on himself and he managed to put for sale again.

[Keyser Soze]

so let me undesrtand...

We are talking about database that has been modified etc....

In a company like that ( see the bitcoin movie how they entered the server room, such a security) they want us to believe they did not had back up of live server? i create websites and i take back up every hour! even if they erase the back up's i think there is way for the police to get them back.

I think the suggestion is that Mark intentionally altered the database and/or backups. Given the size of MtGox, I could imagine the difficulty of trying to find inaccuracies.

What truth might they be seeking with all such information? They do not need any of that to know what addresses are currently holding the missing Bitcoin. The who will come out eventually. Every time that Bitcoin value switches hands, its another link that could lead to the original thief.

If the MtGox database has been altered, it would certainly be very helpful for investigators to have outside information (from banks, clients, ect) to find and undo these alternations.

[JorgeStolfi]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

[bitcoinvest]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

I wasn't aware of this also and all this time day by day i search for news and updates for MtGox case...

So let me understand... Founder of Kraken Jesse Powell and Mark Karpeles are friends?
Jesse had helped him and now he helps also Kobayashi?

What is going on???

[DrApricot]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

I wasn't aware of this also and all this time day by day i search for news and updates for MtGox case...

So let me understand... Founder of Kraken Jesse Powell and Mark Karpeles are friends?
Jesse had helped him and now he helps also Kobayashi?

What is going on???

If you really want to see the "man behind the curtain", ask yourself after Mt. Gox slid into bankruptcy, who orchestrated the massive media campaign to link this failure to the probable demise of bitcoin. Many people remember these articles that appeared in the immediate aftermath. Here's a typical example:

Apparently there is no solution, and Mt. Gox is now bankrupt after a spectacular failure that will likely only serve to further erode confidence in Bitcoin, if not kill [emphasis added] the nascent currency altogether. It's a crisis of confidence born out of a lack of security. - See more at: http://www.eweek.com/cloud/mt.-gox-is-dead-is-bitcoin-dead-too.html#sthash.VrZpyqqk.dpuf

About this same time, countless articles appeared all saying virtually the same thing. In fact, I'll never forget a professor in the New York bitcoin hearing held in late January predicting that bitcoin would hit $5 before the end of 2014. That's when it was still selling for north of $600! At this point, what did this gentleman know that would lead him to believe such a catastrophic loss was imminent? I'm not saying that he personally knew anything, yet it was common knowledge in certain circles back in the January to February timeframe that a massive sell-off was a definite possibility. Who had this kind of advance knowledge, and where did they get it? Cui bono?

[bitcoinvest]

Very good point Jorge...

i knew all those informations but never put them together like you did.

you know i am very unhappy with all this and of course i'm not the only one...

if you have time to read : http://mtgox.gr/mtgox-support-ticket

this is a ticket of withdrawal - support from MtGox the time everything was happening!
i'm 1000% sure they knew everything i mean the support team... they were advised to win some time from the customers...
and everything comes together with your point of view...

[JorgeStolfi]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

I wasn't aware of this also and all this time day by day i search for news and updates for MtGox case...

So let me understand... Founder of Kraken Jesse Powell and Mark Karpeles are friends?
Jesse had helped him and now he helps also Kobayashi?

What is going on???

I wonder if Kobayashi was aware of the close personal connection between Powell and Karpelès.  Pehaps you should send Kobayashi a letter (on paper, to make sure that he reads it; formal and polite; even better if written by a lawyer) asking him if he is aware of that connection, with a copy of the article attached.  No need to elaborate on theories or anything.  If he was not aware, he will at least be more careful in his interactions with Kraken.

[JorgeStolfi]

In fact, I'll never forget a professor in the New York bitcoin hearing held in late January predicting that bitcoin would hit $5 before the end of 2014. That's when it was still selling for north of $600! At this point, what did this gentleman know that would lead him to believe such a catastrophic loss was imminent? I'm not saying that he personally knew anything, yet it was common knowledge in certain circles back in the January to February timeframe that a massive sell-off was a definite possibility.

IIRC, he was the same Prof. who in another occasion predicted that BTC would be less than 10$ by mid-2014.  There is a whole thread in this forum devoted to making fun of "Prof. Bitcorn".

And yet he got it half right --- bitcoin lost 50% of its price between Jan/2014 and May/2014.  I myself believe that it will probably end below 10$, although it may take a few years, and the price may do crazy things before that.  So "Prof. Bitcorn" may still have the last laugh.

AFAIK, his arguments did not have to do with MtGOX, but came simply from the fact that bitcoin has no underlying assets, pays no dividends, and has no backing institution committed (even weakly) to preserving its value.  Therefore, the current price is still almost completely speculative: people are willing to pay 330 US$ for 1 BTC because they think that tomorrow people will think that the next day people will think that the next day people will think that ... that the next day people will think that some day, not too far away, people will think that it is worth 400US$, perhaps.  He reasoned that the price cannot remain forever holding itself up by its bootstraps.  If it were not for speculation, and people only bought bitcoin to use as currency, the price would be much less than 10$.

[DrApricot]

In fact, I'll never forget a professor in the New York bitcoin hearing held in late January predicting that bitcoin would hit $5 before the end of 2014. That's when it was still selling for north of $600! At this point, what did this gentleman know that would lead him to believe such a catastrophic loss was imminent? I'm not saying that he personally knew anything, yet it was common knowledge in certain circles back in the January to February timeframe that a massive sell-off was a definite possibility.

IIRC, he was the same Prof. who in another occasion predicted that BTC would be less than 10$ by mid-2014.  There is a whole thread in this forum devoted to making fun of "Prof. Bitcorn".

And yet he got it half right --- bitcoin lost 50% of its price between Jan/2014 and May/2014.  I myself believe that it will probably end below 10$, although it may take a few years, and the price may do crazy things before that.  So "Prof. Bitcorn" may still have the last laugh.

AFAIK, his arguments did not have to do with MtGOX, but came simply from the fact that bitcoin has no underlying assets, pays no dividends, and has no backing institution committed (even weakly) to preserving its value.  Therefore, the current price is still almost completely speculative: people are willing to pay 330 US$ for 1 BTC because they think that tomorrow people will think that the next day people will think that the next day people will think that ... that the next day people will think that some day, not too far away, people will think that it is worth 400US$, perhaps.  He reasoned that the price cannot remain forever holding itself up by its bootstraps.  If it were not for speculation, and people only bought bitcoin to use as currency, the price would be much less than 10$.

Whether bitcoin meets an early demise or not, there are certainly those out there who wouldn't mind giving it a little nudge towards the grave. I'm not talking about Prof. Bitcorn either who probably regrets now what he said. The anti-bitcoin publicity drive was kicked into high gear by the Mt. Gox collapse and has been relentless ever since. The proof point always is "Look at what happened to Mt. Gox."--it has become the poster child for why bitcoin is too scary for ordinary investors.

[JorgeStolfi]

Whether bitcoin meets an early demise or not, there are certainly those out there who wouldn't mind giving it a little nudge towards the grave. I'm not talking about Prof. Bitcorn either who probably regrets now what he said. The anti-bitcoin publicity drive was kicked into high gear by the Mt. Gox collapse and has been relentless ever since. The proof point always is "Look at what happened to Mt. Gox."--it has become the poster child for why bitcoin is too scary for ordinary investors.

Prof Bitcorn may regret having given a specific date, but he has been interviewed recently and still stands by his "under 10$" prediction.  His arguments are still valid.

Negative articles these days do not mention MtGOX as much as the 60% loss of value over this year.  For most investors, that is a very good reason to stay away from bitcoin.

What is more disturbing to rational investors is that the bitcoin supporters and recognized bitcoin experts cannot provide a good explanation for why it surged 10x in 2013-11, why it has been falling through most of this year, why it had a modest recovery starting 2014-05-20, and why one should expect it to rise again in the future.

I have my partial explanation for the first two.  China had a huge number of amateur commodity speculators, and they switched to trading bitcoin when the Mainland exchanges opened in Beijing and gave them access to that market.  But they have been dropping out it since the PBoC reduced it to a bad gambling game. (Because of the constant mining output, day-trading in bitcoin is a negative-sum game: the majority of traders must lose money, and the longer they trade, the more money they lose.)

You won't find this explanation being aired in the bitcoin media like Coindesk, or offered by bitcoin gurus like Andreessen or Antonopoulos, because it is very bad for marketing.  "By investing your life savings in our bitcoin fund, you will be placing your future in the hands of an army of amateur day-traders in China, who have no idea of what the blockchain is, and couldn't care less about it."  Sure, why not?

After a year, the only article that has looked into the demographics of the Chinese bitcoiners was published in (of all places!) the Chritian Science Monitor:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/1206/Why-the-Chinese-can-t-get-enough-of-Bitcoin-despite-bank-ban
The bitcoin press much prefers to "explain" the price of bitcoin by ridiculous technical analysis, like that linear extrapolation of the logscale plot (which has been rather absent of late, since it now only shows that the extrapolation does not work any more). 

I still have found no explanation for the modest bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  I also do not see any reason to expect another bubble in the future, that would push the price higher than the 2013-11 one.  In my understanding, that would require the opening of a new market, even bigger (in terms of disposable money) than the mainland Chinese speculators.  Where would that market be?

[DrApricot]

Whether bitcoin meets an early demise or not, there are certainly those out there who wouldn't mind giving it a little nudge towards the grave. I'm not talking about Prof. Bitcorn either who probably regrets now what he said. The anti-bitcoin publicity drive was kicked into high gear by the Mt. Gox collapse and has been relentless ever since. The proof point always is "Look at what happened to Mt. Gox."--it has become the poster child for why bitcoin is too scary for ordinary investors.

Prof Bitcorn may regret having given a specific date, but he has been interviewed recently and still stands by his "under 10$" prediction.  His arguments are still valid.

Negative articles these days do not mention MtGOX as much as the 60% loss of value over this year.  For most investors, that is a very good reason to stay away from bitcoin.

What is more disturbing to rational investors is that the bitcoin supporters and recognized bitcoin experts cannot provide a good explanation for why it surged 10x in 2013-11, why it has been falling through most of this year, why it had a modest recovery starting 2014-05-20, and why one should expect it to rise again in the future.

I have my partial explanation for the first two.  China had a huge number of amateur commodity speculators, and they switched to trading bitcoin when the Mainland exchanges opened in Beijing and gave them access to that market.  But they have been dropping out it since the PBoC reduced it to a bad gambling game. (Because of the constant mining output, day-trading in bitcoin is a negative-sum game: the majority of traders must lose money, and the longer they trade, the more money they lose.)

You won't find this explanation being aired in the bitcoin media like Coindesk, or offered by bitcoin gurus like Andreessen or Antonopoulos, because it is very bad for marketing.  "By investing your life savings in our bitcoin fund, you will be placing your future in the hands of an army of amateur day-traders in China, who have no idea of what the blockchain is, and couldn't care less about it."  Sure, why not?

After a year, the only article that has looked into the demographics of the Chinese bitcoiners was published in (of all places!) the Chritian Science Monitor:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2013/1206/Why-the-Chinese-can-t-get-enough-of-Bitcoin-despite-bank-ban
The bitcoin press much prefers to "explain" the price of bitcoin by ridiculous technical analysis, like that linear extrapolation of the logscale plot (which has been rather absent of late, since it now only shows that the extrapolation does not work any more). 

Anyone blind to the risk involved should not be speculating in bitcoin. I'm no trader, but markets do fluctuate, and often for some very obscure reasons. The only strategy that makes any sense is to hold bitcoins for longer than 5 years. If you believe over time that its growth will be logarithmic, then that's the safest way to avoid getting caught up in a down trend as we've seen during 2014. It's kind of like California real estate--it goes up and it goes down, but has been rising overall for 150 years.

I still have found no explanation for the modest bubble that started on 2014-05-20.  I also do not see any reason to expect another bubble in the future, that would push the price higher than the 2013-11 one.  In my understanding, that would require the opening of a new market, even bigger (in terms of disposable money) than the mainland Chinese speculators.  Where would that market be?

The market is there all right, especially with the expansion of mobile point of sale (MPOS) we've seen. It accounts for much of the success of companies such as Square. Everyone is carrying around their iPhone, iPad, Android phone or tablet, or MS Blu. MPOS is a very convenient way to transact business. Bitcoin is a natural to take over a share of this business, especially in unbanked parts of the world such as the developing Asian countries, for example Myanmar and Bangladesh. Of course, there are a few wee problems such as the Government of Bangladesh having banned bitcoin, but eventually they may have to relent on their negative position. My only concern is that bitcoin developers will not jump on the opportunity fast enough to develop mobile applications for making international remittances in settlement of trade. I'm a little disappointed that JADA, Kraken and crew, who seem to be taking over what's left of Mt. Gox have not announced taking some greater initiative in this direction. If Japan truly hopes to become the most "bitcoin friendly country", hopefully for their sake, they'll kick this up into high gear.

BTW, another explanation for the downtrend in 2014 bitcoin price levels is that it could coincide with the liquidation of the "missing" Mt. Gox bitcoins. I've watched this market enough to realize that every time it starts to gain a little momentum, along comes another massive dump of bitcoins on the open market. There must be a few large holders doing this, and the downtrend is consistent with the distribution phase of liquidating a very large holding.

[prophetx]

how much longer?

[prophetx]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

I wasn't aware of this also and all this time day by day i search for news and updates for MtGox case...

So let me understand... Founder of Kraken Jesse Powell and Mark Karpeles are friends?
Jesse had helped him and now he helps also Kobayashi?

What is going on???

I wonder if Kobayashi was aware of the close personal connection between Powell and Karpelès.  Pehaps you should send Kobayashi a letter (on paper, to make sure that he reads it; formal and polite; even better if written by a lawyer) asking him if he is aware of that connection, with a copy of the article attached.  No need to elaborate on theories or anything.  If he was not aware, he will at least be more careful in his interactions with Kraken.

[qxzn]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

The article doesn't say or even imply that Powell was a close friend of Karpeles. What it says is:

After Mt. Gox was hacked for the first time in summer of 2011, a friend asked Powell to help out, and soon, the San Francisco entrepreneur found himself on a plane to Tokyo. After landing, he rushed to Shibuya station, where he was met by his friend, Roger Ver, one of the world’s biggest bitcoin supporters who just happened to live across the street from Mt. Gox.

[DrApricot]

• "Secrecy is sprinkled over everything like an artificial sweetener to hide things we're not going to like, cover up poor progress, avoid answering awkward questions etc. The meetings are supposed to be about giving out information but the feeling is they're about conforming to the requirement for a meeting but  with the aim being to give away as little as possible."  --Kolin Burges, "November 26th 2014 MtGox Creditors' Meeting & Kraken Press Conference", http://www.mtgoxprotest.com/
• "Q4 Will not the address of bitcoins managed by MtGox be disclosed?
  A4 The police investigation into MtGox is currently being conducted. Since the investigative authorities request the trustee to carefully consider the disclosure of the address, disclosure of the address is withheld at this point and I will continue to consider its future disclosure.  --Nobuaki Kobayashi  "Answers to Questions, etc., at Second Creditor's Meeting", https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20141217_answers.pdf

This mushroom treatment is getting old!

[macsga]

/tinfoil hat on
Am I the only one here who thinks that the amount of 600k missing BTCs is FAR TOO BIG for buying every single one of them?  

/tinfoil hat off

[JorgeStolfi]

This article, posted March 2014, is outdated about the alleged "hack", but has some interesting trivia about MtGOX:
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/

I wasn't aware that Jesse Powell, who founded Kraken, was a close friend of Karpelès and Ver; so much that he rushed to help them after MtGOX was hacked for the first time, in 2011.

The article doesn't say or even imply that Powell was a close friend of Karpeles. What it says is:

After Mt. Gox was hacked for the first time in summer of 2011, a friend asked Powell to help out, and soon, the San Francisco entrepreneur found himself on a plane to Tokyo. After landing, he rushed to Shibuya station, where he was met by his friend, Roger Ver, one of the world’s biggest bitcoin supporters who just happened to live across the street from Mt. Gox.

Thanks.  Indeed, I misread the article.

Still, Powell is good friend of Ver, who was a very good friend of Karpelès; and Powell had his hands in the system, which was later hacked in ways unknown ...

By the way, wasn't Ver one of MtGOX's most successful traders, according to the leaked database?

[bitcoinvest]

those info must be passed to Kobayiashi somehow

[bitcoinvest]

http://www.coindesk.com/safello-co-founder-moves-tokyo-start-new-bitcoin-security-firm/

what is going on with Tokyo? Are they going to clean MtGox mess?? is this is just my feeling??