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Author Topic: Bitmain looks like they're releasing a 15GH/s DASH miner called the AntMiner D3  (Read 277503 times)
generalt
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September 15, 2017, 06:39:43 PM
 #2541


More quick math: If difficulty merely doubles, that comes out to $1300 a month.
If difficulty increases tenfold, thats $260 a month
If difficulty increases a hundredfold, it would cost more to run the miner in electricity than it would mine, and the D3 would operate at a net loss of over $178 per month.

Worst case scenario here, is that by December of this year 200,000 D3's come online, which would add 2985TH/s to current global hashrate. Adding that to the current global hashrate for dash of 38.7 TH/s we get 3023.7 TH/s, which would be an increase in hashrate of a multiplier of 78.13 (what I mean is, take the estimated global hashrate of 3023.7 and divide it by the current global hashrate of 38.7)

Based on this (worst case) scenario each D3 would mine 33.38 per month before the cost of electricity.

So this is my first estimate, which I call 'worst case' estimate for dash difficulty by December. Before I try to do a 'best case' what do you guys think of my math thus far? I'm sure I have overlooked things. Any and all thoughts are much appreciated.

On a quick side note, I was able to put in an order last night for 4 D3's on the bitmain site, but based on this math I don't think I will be sending the wire, and I'll just let the order expire.


As they say, time is money.  Can you imagine having one now earing $2600 per month?  That works out to be about $87 per day $3.61 per hour or 6¢ per minute before electricity costs.  It all comes down to your electricity costs and those with free or low electric rates will always win out.  What you are not factoring in to make it even worse is if the price of Dash and other X11 coins drop even further.  We're going to have a lot of angry people out there.

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bearsworth
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September 15, 2017, 07:00:28 PM
 #2542

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

Bitrated user: cryptomark.
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September 15, 2017, 07:15:56 PM
 #2543

At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your live savings away. 

The next big correction in BTC will be headlined by "bitcoin suicides on the rise" by ppl who gambled off every penny they had.
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September 15, 2017, 08:59:08 PM
 #2544

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

I don't know how that turned out as I wasn't mining back then but hoping you could tell me? What was the market correction?
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September 15, 2017, 09:03:01 PM
 #2545

There is big trouble in little China. The government is doing some very scary things from the Bitmain perspective. Bitmain has absolutely announced a 50 million $ mining facility plan for the USA. It's very possible that Bitmain feels very threatened in their home country right now. China likes to pretend they have "free markets" but the truth is they don't. If I were a Bitmain Executive I would be very nervous and definitely taking precautionary measures for my business.
I am sure China will not shut down companies which produce mining equipment, as this would mean killing the goose that lays the golden egg.  These companies earn huge profits and pay big taxes to the govenment.

Communists there are quite clever - they respect and defend local producers.  Exchanges, on the contrary, belong to virtual "finance" economy which makes nohting tangible in real production.

Btw I received a shipping confirmation from Bitmine today for a few S9 which I bought a couple of monthes ago.  Initially they were scheduled for 21 Sep,  but are being  shipping 1 week ahead.  

Bitmain is not in trouble as of now, as one can see.



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September 15, 2017, 09:03:57 PM
 #2546

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

I don't know how that turned out as I wasn't mining back then but hoping you could tell me? What was the market correction?

litecoin was around 7-8 usd and went to 40 in a month but in other hand everything went up so i dont know how it will work for x11
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September 15, 2017, 09:12:30 PM
 #2547

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

I don't know how that turned out as I wasn't mining back then but hoping you could tell me? What was the market correction?

Litecoin went from high $30s maybe close to $38 to $24 which was a significant move down during that time. Thus FUD was spread. Its funny because it happened again later to roughly same values. I remember a lot of people saying July batch would not ROI let alone any batch later.

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lashatatu
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September 15, 2017, 09:16:37 PM
 #2548

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

I don't know how that turned out as I wasn't mining back then but hoping you could tell me? What was the market correction?

Litecoin went from high $30s maybe close to $38 to $24 which was a significant move down during that time. Thus FUD was spread. Its funny because it happened again later to roughly same values. I remember a lot of people saying July batch would not ROI let alone any batch later.
when they anounced l3+ it was 7-8 usd and after that went up and went down as u said
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September 15, 2017, 09:28:58 PM
 #2549

This reminds me of the litecoin thread back in May. When prices dropped everyone was creating these estimates, pretty much same verdict that the L3+ would be unprofitable. This was followed by more evidence as the market had a correction. We all know how that turned out. Let's wait until the first two batches ship before discussing more. At the end of the day just risk what you are willing to risk, but do not throw your life savings away.  

I don't know how that turned out as I wasn't mining back then but hoping you could tell me? What was the market correction?

Litecoin went from high $30s maybe close to $38 to $24 which was a significant move down during that time. Thus FUD was spread. Its funny because it happened again later to roughly same values. I remember a lot of people saying July batch would not ROI let alone any batch later.
when they anounced l3+ it was 7-8 usd and after that went up and went down as u said
People came out with estimates during that time too. The conclusion was April would barely profit. Check the thread again people were saying that because it came so close to May release after a delay and were getting pissed off.  Mid May after the break more fear and FUD when the price dropped as I mentioned earlier.

The conclusion is people don't really know what will happen. Maybe dash drops a lot but then next year hits new all time highs. Who knows? Maybe bitmain has some issue and delays batches or has to halt production. Or maybe this is just a huge paper weight in the making. Let's make estimates when the network increases and we can get a better idea of batch sizes.

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RealKariverson
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September 15, 2017, 09:38:12 PM
 #2550

Based on the total number of units for each batch that we have collected in this thread previously, it is reasonable (and again a 'worst case scenario' in terms of difficulty) we could reasonably estimate that the average number of D3 units available across all 10 batches could be as high as 20k units per batch. Of course the data shows that the number of units available varies, with some batches having higher numbers and some being lower. 20k units I am asserting as a reasonable 'worst case' scenario average across all batches thus far that we know of.

If I remember correctly from here in this thread the first batches were very small. First one was like 1500 and second 2500, third 3500 and then a huge 35k one. Then there are resellers and people who would mine other coins. But also the Dash miners from other manufacturers so I guess there cancel each other out.
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September 15, 2017, 10:14:19 PM
 #2551

What I don't get about D3 and Bitmain is why did they release the 15GH unit.

The could have milked everybody with a 5GH then 10GH then 15GH at the end, perhaps one year from now. Ppl would buy anyway.

Did they want to kill competition from other producers?

I think it would've be smarter to play it slow and nice while doing R&D and inside mining only.
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September 15, 2017, 10:24:52 PM
 #2552

What I don't get about D3 and Bitmain is why did they release the 15GH unit.

The could have milked everybody with a 5GH then 10GH then 15GH at the end, perhaps one year from now. Ppl would buy anyway.

Did they want to kill competition from other producers?

I think it would've be smarter to play it slow and nice while doing R&D and inside mining only.

because someone with the budget for 15GH would buy 3x 5GH miners

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461
No longer a wannabe - now an ASIC owner!
Lereli
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September 16, 2017, 01:01:49 AM
 #2553

Is https://www.gigawatt.sg/ legit ?
Anyone made an order & received it from first batches ?
taufiqmax
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September 16, 2017, 01:02:38 AM
 #2554

My tracking number got this latest update
"Clearance event
Further Detail:
The Clearance process for this shipment is on-going with additional details required for clearance
Next Step:
The clearance process will continue once the additional details are provided for clearance"

Is this normal?
generalt
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September 16, 2017, 01:49:53 AM
 #2555

What I don't get about D3 and Bitmain is why did they release the 15GH unit.

The could have milked everybody with a 5GH then 10GH then 15GH at the end, perhaps one year from now. Ppl would buy anyway.

Did they want to kill competition from other producers?

I think it would've be smarter to play it slow and nice while doing R&D and inside mining only.

They most certainly want to beat the competition.  They're the big bully on the block.  The more they pump out and the faster they pump out the more pressure it puts on their competition. 

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joshki
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September 16, 2017, 02:33:03 AM
 #2556

Anyone here with any updates on shipping for the first batch, please post anything you hear as it comes in. I'm sure many in this thread are as excited as I am.

In the meantime I figured we might as well run some numbers again to try to estimate Dash/X11 difficulty in December as a result of these D3's coming online. I know we have visited this topic in this thread already, so I will try to include the data from previous estimates.

I'd like to do three versions, the first being a worst case/pessimistic estimate, second a best case/optimistic estimate, and a third 'medium' estimate which is an average of the two together (roughly in the middle)

Please feel free anyone to check my math and correct me where I make mistakes as I'm sure I will.

Lets start with some quick general information for those who may be new here:

1 kH/s is 1,000 hashes per second (sometimes mistakenly written KH/s). 1 MH/s is1,000,000 hashes per second. 1 GH/s is 1,000,000,000 hashes per second. 1 TH/s is 1,000,000,000,000 hashes per second.
1 kH/s = 1000
1 MH/s = 1,000,000
1 GH/s = 1,000,000,000
1 TH/s = 1,000,000,000,000

Global hashrate at the time of this writing according to this link:
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/dash-hashrate.html

is 38.7 TH/s

Each D3 hashes (approximatley) at a rate of 15GH/s.
This correlates to 67 D3 units hashing equate to one TH/s addition to the global hashrate.
If we divide the current global hashrate by the hashrate of D3's, we see that it would take 2479 D3 units running to create that same global hashrate.

Another way to put it is if 2479 D3's were to come online right now the global hashrate would effectivley double.

Doubling the global hashrate would also double the difficulty and reduce profitability by half.

This of course does not take into account the other X11 coins that can be mined, and it would not be reasonable to expect all the D3's coming out to mine only dash, but for simplification I will only use dash for these calculations.

We have seen a total of 10 batches of D3's go on sale (that we know of) for delivery ranging from late September to Late November. As other have pointed out in this thread, by looking at the checkout page on the bitmain site we have been able to estimate in a rough way the amount of D3 units available in each batch. As Ross from CryptoCrane points out, we do not know how many of these units are actually paid for after checkout, but it stands to reason because of the high demand for these most people who are able to get thgouh the checkout process will follow through and send payment. (Also we will for the sake of this first 'worst case scenario' that the majority of units ordered are being paid for).

Based on the total number of units for each batch that we have collected in this thread previously, it is reasonable (and again a 'worst case scenario' in terms of difficulty) we could reasonably estimate that the average number of D3 units available across all 10 batches could be as high as 20k units per batch. Of course the data shows that the number of units available varies, with some batches having higher numbers and some being lower. 20k units I am asserting as a reasonable 'worst case' scenario average across all batches thus far that we know of.

There may have been several batches available on the Chinese version of the site that were not mentioned on social media, by my count however there have been 10 total batches for sure.


Now lets run some quick numbers on a profitability calculator here:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21

I assuming an electrical rate of 21 cents per Kwh (again, being 'pessimistic')

At the time of this writing, one D3 would yeild $2,604 per month. (already WAY down from when these units were announced by bitmain, as many have mentioned here in this thread this number has been as high as $7k a month)
source:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/dash?HashingPower=15&HashingUnit=GH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1200&CostPerkWh=0.21

More quick math: If difficulty merely doubles, that comes out to $1300 a month.
If difficulty increases tenfold, thats $260 a month
If difficulty increases a hundredfold, it would cost more to run the miner in electricity than it would mine, and the D3 would operate at a net loss of over $178 per month.

Worst case scenario here, is that by December of this year 200,000 D3's come online, which would add 2985TH/s to current global hashrate. Adding that to the current global hashrate for dash of 38.7 TH/s we get 3023.7 TH/s, which would be an increase in hashrate of a multiplier of 78.13 (what I mean is, take the estimated global hashrate of 3023.7 and divide it by the current global hashrate of 38.7)

Based on this (worst case) scenario each D3 would mine 33.38 per month before the cost of electricity.

So this is my first estimate, which I call 'worst case' estimate for dash difficulty by December. Before I try to do a 'best case' what do you guys think of my math thus far? I'm sure I have overlooked things. Any and all thoughts are much appreciated.

On a quick side note, I was able to put in an order last night for 4 D3's on the bitmain site, but based on this math I don't think I will be sending the wire, and I'll just let the order expire.






Wow...

Thanks for the math -- I had no idea it was that outrageous.

The one positive from all this, however -- if it happens the way you're hypothesizing it might -- is that if the global hashrate spikes this high, it really significantly increases the security of the network. 

Beyond that, I wonder who is going to run all these miners -- that's a whole lot of electricity.  We know how the bitcoin miners work, they're getting their electricity mostly for free. 
CryptoCrane
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September 16, 2017, 03:33:12 AM
 #2557

More D3s are available for the late Nov batch... again

https://shop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020170912160304914mzIAF5BP0670


Looks like another 10,000 units

Quote
<td class="count">
<span class="reduce">-</span>
<input class="count-input" type="text" value="1">
<input type="hidden" class="remainCount" value="9984">
<span class="add">+</span>

Max order quantity = 200

thiec
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September 16, 2017, 04:08:22 AM
 #2558

More D3s are available for the late Nov batch... again

https://shop.bitmain.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020170912160304914mzIAF5BP0670


Looks like another 10,000 units

Quote
<td class="count">
<span class="reduce">-</span>
<input class="count-input" type="text" value="1">
<input type="hidden" class="remainCount" value="9984">
<span class="add">+</span>

Max order quantity = 200

I wonder the quantity for 21-30 Nov batch.
Tracking for its id=00020170912160304914mzIAF5BP0670, Its start sale on Sept 12nd and open sales on Sept 14th and until now this batch still ON SALE.

thesavoyard
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September 16, 2017, 07:31:26 AM
 #2559

I bought one miner in batch 1.5, set to ship between the 18th and 25th. It's already been sent and FedEx texted and said delivery is the 20th. I'm out of town so I had to push it to the 22nd.

taufiqmax
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September 16, 2017, 07:33:54 AM
 #2560

anybody got their D3 in hand?

I've got this message in my DHL tracking number
Clearance event
Further Detail:
The Clearance process for this shipment is on-going with additional details required for clearance

can somebody please tell me is it a normal process or not?
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