[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[pheaonix]

So the price of mining or price of selling really does not matter. Even if the MINING is over priced, holders of SELLING will only win when the MINING price comes back to the correct value. Selling holders  lose money if the MINING price keeps high unless you hold it till the fund closed. But remember, when fund closes, MINING holders get 365 * daily dividend.

"DMS.SELLING - Is a bet that people will pay too much for DMS.MINING."

apologies - i should be irritated at myself for not reading 100% of the the fine print.

i will stop whining and try my best to get out of this with as little loss as possible, and perhaps buy a lot of mining when it looks like the fund is going to collapse for a massive protection.

[Deprived]

Sold   3871
Swapped   0
Total   3871
Price   0.01203
Total   46.56813
Less Fee   46.47499374
Man Fee   1.394249812

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1213.874005
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    389.93000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.7556223
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.904679
Coinlenders Cash   3.9593427
Just-Dice Balance    247.13000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,249.26364931
   
Outstanding MINING   187262
Outstanding SELLING   187262
Outstanding PURCHASE   8974
Effective Units   196236
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,243.58753420
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01143311
Days Dividend Post Div   395.27
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,243.58753420
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01143311
PURCHASE selling price    0.01200
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01120
   
J-D House profit at report   6213

Have sold 1k or so Ciphermine bonds so far making about 0.6-0.7 profit.  Will continue slowly selling them until the vote ends - at which stage either DMS will be holding them (and only selling down to next projected capital allowance) or I'll have taken them off the fund's hands and they won't matter any more to DMS.  J-D was reported slightly lower than it should have been yesterdday (by 0.1-0.2) as I'd estimated value after dooglus' fee deduction forgetting that he'd actually already taken it the previous day.  Value is now correct (I verify it more thoroughly on days when there's a SELLING dividend anyway.

[pheaonix]

for selling holders - estimated next div is 9/14 if done day of difficulty change, 9/15 if done day after.

next difficulty estimated ~111mil, around 27.5% increase. just estimates.

[lenny_]

for selling holders - estimated next div is 9/14 if done day of difficulty change, 9/15 if done day after.

next difficulty estimated ~111mil, around 27.5% increase. just estimates.

According to blockexplorer, next difficulty will be at ~106M.

Code:

Current difficulty: 86933017.771194 Current block: 257353
Next est. difficulty: 106045878.28257859 Target block: 258047 
Next retarget in: 694 blocks (4.81944 days)

[Rannasha]

There are different ways to estimate the next difficulty, so there will be some difference between the various estimates. This difference will obviously decrease as we get closer to the adjustment and the estimates become more accurate.

[Deprived]

Sold   3612
Swapped   0
Total   3612
Price   0.012
Total   43.344
Less Fee   43.257312
Man Fee   1.29771936

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1253.18399
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    389.93000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.8746865
Coinlenders Cash   105.8992007
Just-Dice Balance    247.35000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,288.94787734
   
Outstanding MINING   190110
Outstanding SELLING   190110
Outstanding PURCHASE   9738
Effective Units   199848
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,283.16728534
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01142452
Days Dividend Post Div   394.97
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,283.16728534
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01142452
PURCHASE selling price    0.01200
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01120
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

[Deprived]

There's a small error in the above report.

I didn't reduce value of CIPHERMINE bonds properly to account for a few more sales.

Here's what it should have been:

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1253.18399
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    387.10000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.8746865
Coinlenders Cash   105.8992007
Just-Dice Balance    247.35000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,286.11787734
   
Outstanding MINING   190110
Outstanding SELLING   190110
Outstanding PURCHASE   9738
Effective Units   199848
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,280.33728534
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01141036
Days Dividend Post Div   394.48
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,280.33728534
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01141036
PURCHASE selling price    0.01198
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01118
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

Adjusting PURCHASE price to correct slightly lower value now.  Was puzzled how PURCHASE price hadn't dropped at all - but had to put new PURCHASE sale up whilst I double-checked to stop people buying massively overpriced ones.

[Deprived]

Leaving the old order up as well so I remember to add sales from that order on when producing next report.

The vote on CIPHERMINE bond investments ends today - there's a clear majority of those voting who want DMS to keep them but not quite enough at present to pass the motion.  If the motion doesn't reach 50% then I'll buy them off the fund with personal funds tomorrow morning (motion ends at midnight my time and I'll have been at the pub so won't want to be moving funds around then).

I MAY not be around to produce a report on Saturday (or I might, alternatively, do it an hour early).  I'm watching Roger Waters - the Wall at Wembley Stadium and will be heading for a train to London at the time dividends are usually paid.  Looks like SELLING dividend won't be until Sunday so it's no big deal if there's no report on Saturday.

[Progressive]

The motion has 50.2% approval now!

[Deprived]

Pretty major oops - put the PURCHASE up for sale at the buyback price instead of the selling price.

Have put it to correct price now.  Will work out how much less was received than should have been for the bunch that sold and refund the difference myself (so DMS investors won't have lost out).  As 3% of the difference was my management fee it shouldn't be too painful for me.

[Deprived]

10K sold into the fund's own bid.  As the shares and cash didn't move loss to DMS on that was .4% of transaction (.2% each on buy/sell) so .004 * 112.2 = .4488 BTC

For all other transactions I've worked out what they should have sold at and the difference between that and what was actually received.  The total for that comes to 1.612054 BTC.  That's actually very slightly higher than what I should refund (as DMS would lose the transaction fee on the difference if they'd sold at correct price).

Adding the 2 together gives 2.060854 BTC which I'll send to the DMS account after I've updated the spreadsheet and made sure the totals then are correct.

As I'll get my management fee on the sales I'll end up being refunded a bit under half of that tomorrow anyway.  Congrats to those who got the cheap PURCHASE and were able to split and sell them profitably.

[Deprived]

The math works - NAV/U increased by a tiny amount as a result.

Have sent 2.1 BTC to the DMS account.

Lucky noone with a big wallet noticed or they could have bought all 90k then relisted it for a nearly 7% profit.

[junkonator]

Maybe the arbitrage bots were offline   

[Rannasha]

Maybe the arbitrage bots were offline   

Nope, but not running on that particular avenue. Though I did take it offline to try and debug it as the output window was showing unusually high profit-estimates. Turns out there wasn't anything wrong on my end ^^

[Deprived]

Maybe the arbitrage bots were offline   

Nope, but not running on that particular avenue. Though I did take it offline to try and debug it as the output window was showing unusually high profit-estimates. Turns out there wasn't anything wrong on my end ^^

Yeah - the error was on my end not yours.  Guess I could have exploited it myself except that would be pretty pointless when, as manager, I have to make good any losses caused by stupidity/carelessness by me.

The CIPHERMINE bond motion passed with 50.4% so I don't have to shuffle my BTC around tomorrow.  Have mixed feelings on that - as I'm pretty confident I could have flipped them for a few percent profit myself so am foregoing that but also no longer have the hassle of moving around BTC to do it.

Now they officially belong to DMS policy will be that if they can sell for a decent markup then I'll sell them down to what I project as being 25% of capital on the next+1 difficulty change.  i.e. I'll try to ensure DMS doesn't ever need to sell them in a rush whilst holding what I believe we safely can for the dividends.  I'm by no means convinced issuing the bonds was a good move for CIPHERMINE investors but that's not our concern.

In other news we now passed 1 TH/S of virtual mining.  I won't put in the title (despite the habit of 'mining' companies putting  pre-orders in thread titles as though they had hardware) as that could give a misleading impression of what DMS is/does.

[Rannasha]

The transfer-bot-hamster needs to be fed again.

edit: works again it seems. Did it drop out or did you lower the update-frequency?

[Deprived]

Sold   2973
Swapped   0
Total   2973
Price   0.01198
Total   35.61654
Less Fee   35.54530692
Man Fee   1.066359208

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1390.716526
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    384.35000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.9976282
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    247.80000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,315.57415431
   
Outstanding MINING   192874
Outstanding SELLING   192874
Outstanding PURCHASE   9947
Effective Units   202821
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,309.70756845
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01138791
Days Dividend Post Div   393.71
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,309.70756845
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01138791
PURCHASE selling price    0.01196
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01116
   
J-D House profit at report   6393

[Deprived]

MINING dividend will be slightly earlier tomorrow (today here - the next dividend due anyway) as I have to head out for a train to London before the usual time.  I'll do it half an hour early approximately, with report as usual : think that's better than not doing a report or adjusting the price (but letting dividend go through at usual time unattended).

[Rannasha]

Bot broke down again? (Or rather: its network connection, surely it's not a problem with the software.) My transfer (or rather: that of my computerized minion) from 03:54 CEST (almost 4 hours ago) hasn't been processed yet.

[Lytse]

Bot broke down again? (Or rather: its network connection, surely it's not a problem with the software.) My transfer (or rather: that of my computerized minion) from 03:54 CEST (almost 4 hours ago) hasn't been processed yet.

I am also missing my transfer