ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Lohoris]

Well options are very different than shorting.

Synthetic futures:

He could write a call with strike 0.
He could write a call and buy a put at same strike.

I'm no economist and I'm missing something, but you can't write calls if you don't own shares, so you're back to square 1.

[ex-trader]

If (b), I don't know what you are investing in bitcoins in the first place if you don't believe they will generate significant transaction fees for miners in a few years time.

I'm well aware of transaction fees and know that currently they are small. Perhaps you'd care to share some stats or numbers for your assumptions. I've stated something based on my viewpoint and I'd genuinely like to be corrected if I'm wrong.

What I see is transaction fees actually falling:

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

[empoweoqwj]

If (b), I don't know what you are investing in bitcoins in the first place if you don't believe they will generate significant transaction fees for miners in a few years time.

I'm well aware of transaction fees and know that currently they are small. Perhaps you'd care to share some stats or numbers for your assumptions. I've stated something based on my viewpoint and I'd genuinely like to be corrected if I'm wrong.

What I see is transaction fees actually falling:

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees

I make no assumptions. I merely make the case that if in a few years transactions fees haven't risen considerably, then the bitcoin experiment will have not gain widespread adoption as people hope / expect it will, and hence will fail. In that case, each bitcoin will probably be worth $0.50 or less, and we can all go home broke.

[tsm13]

i just cashed out, bought in at ~2.5 and sold at ~4.5. Happy with a ~80% ROI. I have a feeling btc/fiat is about to rebound driving investors back to the fiat exchanges and taking there btc with them.

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015. My reasoning behind this is that friedcat has always been very vocal about hw sales prior to div's going out. There hasn't been a pip from him in a while on the forums. The presentation from china is all about hash rate expansion plans and all these lean to happening in q3-4. This leads me to believe alot of the hype we saw over the last two weeks will cause a sell off after the div lands as those speculative investors realise they aren't going to make a quick profit.

Good luck to everyone tho, will be back @3ish

edited: because I clearly cant count

[bobboooiie]

i just cashed out, bought in at ~2.5 and sold at ~4.5. Happy with a ~45% ROI. I have a feeling btc/fiat is about to rebound driving investors back to the fiat exchanges and taking there btc with them.

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015. My reasoning behind this is that friedcat has always been very vocal about hw sales prior to div's going out. There hasn't been a pip from him in a while on the forums. The presentation from china is all about hash rate expansion plans and all these lean to happening in q3-4. This leads me to believe alot of the hype we saw over the last two weeks will cause a sell off after the div lands as those speculative investors realise they aren't going to make a quick profit.

Good luck to everyone tho, will be back @3ish

Sick math skills.

[runam0k]

i just cashed out, bought in at ~2.5 and sold at ~4.5. Happy with a ~45% ROI. I have a feeling btc/fiat is about to rebound driving investors back to the fiat exchanges and taking there btc with them.

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015. My reasoning behind this is that friedcat has always been very vocal about hw sales prior to div's going out. There hasn't been a pip from him in a while on the forums. The presentation from china is all about hash rate expansion plans and all these lean to happening in q3-4. This leads me to believe alot of the hype we saw over the last two weeks will cause a sell off after the div lands as those speculative investors realise they aren't going to make a quick profit.

Good luck to everyone tho, will be back @3ish

No one can argue with locking in solid profits like that. Congrats.

[tsm13]

i just cashed out, bought in at ~2.5 and sold at ~4.5. Happy with a ~45% ROI. I have a feeling btc/fiat is about to rebound driving investors back to the fiat exchanges and taking there btc with them.

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015. My reasoning behind this is that friedcat has always been very vocal about hw sales prior to div's going out. There hasn't been a pip from him in a while on the forums. The presentation from china is all about hash rate expansion plans and all these lean to happening in q3-4. This leads me to believe alot of the hype we saw over the last two weeks will cause a sell off after the div lands as those speculative investors realise they aren't going to make a quick profit.

Good luck to everyone tho, will be back @3ish

Sick math skills.

LOL! Im "extra" happy haha

[Eric Muyser]

i just cashed out, bought in at ~2.5 and sold at ~4.5. Happy with a ~45% ROI. I have a feeling btc/fiat is about to rebound driving investors back to the fiat exchanges and taking there btc with them.

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015. My reasoning behind this is that friedcat has always been very vocal about hw sales prior to div's going out. There hasn't been a pip from him in a while on the forums. The presentation from china is all about hash rate expansion plans and all these lean to happening in q3-4. This leads me to believe alot of the hype we saw over the last two weeks will cause a sell off after the div lands as those speculative investors realise they aren't going to make a quick profit.

Good luck to everyone tho, will be back @3ish

Sick math skills.

45% man, 45%

it's the new 80%

cash out now

[dragony]

there will be no 3ish on the way up

[FNG]

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015.

Current

[JimiQ84]

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015.

More like 0.026 (0.016 mining, 0.01 sold USB miners)

[bbxx]

if 6000 usb were sold so it is ~5800 coins

i think it will be more than 0.034 per share

[empoweoqwj]

I dont think the div is going to be amazing either prob around 0.015.

Current

lol

FWIW, I'll go for a round 0.03

[velacreations]

.03 sounds realistic, but even .025 is considerably higher than last week.

.025 @ 4.5 = 29% APR
.03 @ 4.5 = 35% APR

What investors are going to dump at those kind of returns?

[canth]

he should have set the price at the 24 hr high, I hate it when he holds the price down like this.

It's for the best bro. It will satisfy the bubble fear mongering.

+1 - it's what wiser large investors do when they unload shares.

[velacreations]

+1 - it's what wiser large investors do when they unload shares.

leave loads of money on the table?

[SOSLOVE868]

Higher share price ,partly regard to limited shares in the market...only around 40K shares a trade freely in the exchanges...which represent only 10% of the company, considering to the return, 5 BTC will be eventually get reached....  
Haha

[velacreations]

sell wall is about done, like 18 shares left.

So, where are gonna end today?  5 btc?

[binaryFate]

sell wall is about done, like 18 shares left.

So, where are gonna end today?  5 btc?

Done now!

5BTC in 1h!

[KarmaShark]

+1 - it's what wiser large investors do when they unload shares.

leave loads of money on the table?

Juta knows a thing or two about how to make ฿. The walls he has put up during the ascension are healthy and I (and many others) thank him for it.