ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Fabrizio89]

yeah, those guys selling at .9 are kicking themselves right now..

I'm sure some of them are entering again at this price, and by Thursday they will kick themselves even harder.

[Coco888]

Here is an ASICMINER share auction, which will be ended in 24 hours, and go for some bidding.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=305624.msg3292999#msg3292999

[freedomno1]

Hehe not to tease anyone but the silence in the thread helped lol

[tinus42]

Hehe not to tease anyone but the silence in the thread helped lol

Yes it did. We should take a longer view and don't jump to conclusions based on lesser or better divs for the week.

[velacreations]

Important Notice (October 8th, 2013):

Please be advised that BitFunder is implementing the following rules and procedures:

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As of October 8th, 2013, all current BitFunder users who are located in the United States or are determined to be United States persons or entities will not be able to enter into any new positions on the Bitfunder website, and, as of November 1, 2013, such users will also not be allowed to sell positions on the BitFunder website.

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[velacreations]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

[puck2]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I've tried to initiate, to no avail. Do you have any insight into the BITFUNDER --> Direct transfer?

[freedomno1]

Important Notice (October 8th, 2013):

Please be advised that BitFunder is implementing the following rules and procedures:

As of October 8th, 2013, BitFunder will not accept new registrations from any United States persons or entities. All new registrants must supply the information required to obtain "Verified" status on their linked WeExchange account. BitFunder may, in its sole direction, decline to accept any new registrations.

As of October 8th, 2013, all current BitFunder users who are located in the United States or are determined to be United States persons or entities will not be able to enter into any new positions on the Bitfunder website, and, as of November 1, 2013, such users will also not be allowed to sell positions on the BitFunder website.

All current BitFunder users who are not United States persons or entities must supply the information required to obtain "Verified" status on their linked WeExchange account before November 1, 2013. Any such users who fail to provide the necessary information will not be able to enter into or sell positions on the BitFunder website as of November 1, 2013.

Users will be able to withdraw holdings and Bitcoins from their BitFunder accounts before and after November 1, 2013.

All assets and issuers must demonstrate that they meet BitFunder's requirements for the listing of assets, or the assets and issuers will, at BitFunder's sole discretion, be denied access to, or removed from, the site. Issuers will be notified of any additional information needed to demonstrate compliance with BitFunder's requirements.

BitFunder appreciates your understanding in these matters as we move forward.

Sincerely,
BitFunder

That leaves Havelock and 796exchange for US holders besides direct shares

[VeeMiner]

sucks to be US resident. Anyway this only proves that US is not going to remain a superpower it once was. The goverment is afraid of new technology instead of embracing it and adapting to new circumstances.

[Lohoris]

Loyalty doesn't serve well in this game.  You need to be able to make cold, harsh decisions if you are going to survive.

Much true.
I call myself silly for knowing it was overvalued but not selling anyway.
Greed blinds.

[huhai0978]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

[supert]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

[huhai0978]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

[binaryFate]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).


 

[huhai0978]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).


 

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it.  I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

[Rival]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).


 

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it.  I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

This projection could be made for any mining stock or hardware manufacturer. Profit margins are indeed falling for 130nm technology. This does not mean margins for Gen2 and Gen3 will start out where Gen1 left off.

[Rival]

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).


 

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it.  I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

This projection could be made for any mining stock or hardware manufacturer. Profit margins are indeed falling for 130nm technology. This does not mean margins for Gen2 and Gen3 will start out where Gen1 left off.

Trust me. Even bitfury will not make any money in 8 months.

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

[velacreations]

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

500 TH is about to be up for sale in the short term, which will increase the dividends significantly for at least 8 weeks.

[VeeMiner]

OK, not on my PC, div speculation - 0.007. Let me know when someone can confirm when the div actually arrives

[superduh]

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

500 TH is about to be up for sale in the short term, which will increase the dividends significantly for at least 8 weeks.

OK, I think I can open a course in this thread. Tuition can be sent to the following address: 15oEsWK3UjtnkrhvgKeDGTQuqdprMkfXya ,minimum 1BTC. I'm serious because this will save you a lot of BTC.

You guys should learn how the world works. You should learn physics before learning investing.
There is no such thing as making money. Making NO money or losing money is a common thing. Making money is a miracle. When someone is making money, that means others are losing money. In an ideal equilibrium world, no one is making any money and the world works just fine. You get the illusion that Y company is make X% profit simple because you are living in a fiat world. Fiat money is a inflation money. The total amount of money(the flow of money to be specific) increases each year, that's where the profit comes from. While BTC is a deflation money, making money is even harder in BTC world. The mining companies such as ASICMiner make a lot of "money" is a strange and rare phenomenon. This is possible simple because we are in the early stage of BTC development, lots of resources go to the money makers. But this will not last very long. It's going to end very soon. The dividend of ASICMiner will be very limited if it will not vanish at all.

there is also an "equilibrium" to how much share of the network a company would have. it would require "collusion" maybe not so much a secret one but one that kind of makes sense on it's own. this is an "arms" raise and there is no point in making chips/asics on an exponential basis. if they all agree to a certain market share it makes more sense then building out asics nonstop. that's the only way to win here as opposed to constantly deploying/selling