ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Vycid]

in the past I've seen the APR sit as high at 30%, so maybe the asset could drop even more if dividends stay at the current percent.

Three months ago, the APR was over 100%.

I wonder how much of this has to do with the price of BTC in general. 

People cashing out maybe?

Gox $123
Bitstamp $108.62
Campbx $108.87
Btc-E $106.25

Gox is so high because nobody wants to sell their BTC for USD, because they can't withdraw any USD. Not a great barometer.

What happened to Gox's bank transfer?

They suspended USD withdrawals a long time ago.

I hope they add LTC soon so we can arb to other exchanges.

[1714666046]

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[Panterino]

in the past I've seen the APR sit as high at 30%, so maybe the asset could drop even more if dividends stay at the current percent.

Three months ago, the APR was over 100%.

I wonder how much of this has to do with the price of BTC in general. 

People cashing out maybe?

Gox $123
Bitstamp $108.62
Campbx $108.87
Btc-E $106.25

Gox is so high because nobody wants to sell their BTC for USD, because they can't withdraw any USD. Not a great barometer.

What happened to Gox's bank transfer?

They suspended USD withdrawals a long time ago.

I hope they add LTC soon so we can arb to other exchanges.

They never resumed?

[Vycid]

in the past I've seen the APR sit as high at 30%, so maybe the asset could drop even more if dividends stay at the current percent.

Three months ago, the APR was over 100%.

I wonder how much of this has to do with the price of BTC in general. 

People cashing out maybe?

Gox $123
Bitstamp $108.62
Campbx $108.87
Btc-E $106.25

Gox is so high because nobody wants to sell their BTC for USD, because they can't withdraw any USD. Not a great barometer.

What happened to Gox's bank transfer?

They suspended USD withdrawals a long time ago.

I hope they add LTC soon so we can arb to other exchanges.

They never resumed?

If they had, how could there possibly be $15 of arb with CampBX? I don't use Mtgox so I don't actually know, but I can't imagine this situation coming about any other way.

[tehelsper]

in the past I've seen the APR sit as high at 30%, so maybe the asset could drop even more if dividends stay at the current percent.

Three months ago, the APR was over 100%.

I wonder how much of this has to do with the price of BTC in general. 

People cashing out maybe?

Gox $123
Bitstamp $108.62
Campbx $108.87
Btc-E $106.25

Gox is so high because nobody wants to sell their BTC for USD, because they can't withdraw any USD. Not a great barometer.

What happened to Gox's bank transfer?

They suspended USD withdrawals a long time ago.

I hope they add LTC soon so we can arb to other exchanges.

They never resumed?

If they had, how could there possibly be $15 of arb with CampBX? I don't use Mtgox so I don't actually know, but I can't imagine this situation coming about any other way.

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

[velacreations]

They never resumed?

Yes, they did, but there is a limit to how much they can transfer on a daily basis, so it is like USD withdrawals are suspended.  It's hard, and takes time to get USD out of MtGox.

[velacreations]

If they had, how could there possibly be $15 of arb with CampBX? I don't use Mtgox so I don't actually know, but I can't imagine this situation coming about any other way.

CampBX has seriously low volume.  It's hardly ever worth trading there.

[somestranger]

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

They may have resumed, but it takes months to withdraw because the line is so long. MtGox had $3 Million seized by the US government and they are likely dealing with a fractional reserve problem now -- delaying withdrawals artificially prevents a "run on the bank" so to speak.

[damiano]

Gox is so high because nobody wants to sell their BTC for USD, because they can't withdraw any USD. Not a great barometer.

Coinbase is at $112 right now, increased considerably this week.

I love Coinbase. 

[Vycid]

If they had, how could there possibly be $15 of arb with CampBX? I don't use Mtgox so I don't actually know, but I can't imagine this situation coming about any other way.

CampBX has seriously low volume.  It's hardly ever worth trading there.

I bought a couple thousand USD of bitcoins from them a month or two ago. Express mailed them a money order. Cheap and easy, without the Coinbase delays. I was impressed.

[MrBubbles007]

The real question right now is when the panic selling will end and we can return to normal; far too many people are weak handed sellers.

[velacreations]

CampBX has seriously low volume.  It's hardly ever worth trading there.

I bought a couple thousand USD of bitcoins from them a month or two ago. Express mailed them a money order. Cheap and easy, without the Coinbase delays. I was impressed.

I've heard of the coinbase delays, but I've never experienced them, though I haven't tried to sell during a major sell-off or buying frenzy.  When I have used them, they've been great, fast and easy, no problems.  I guess I'm just lucky, cause I see a lot of people that don't like them.

I do think they've been a bit better recently, just from the amount of people posting positive things about them.

[Pale Phoenix]

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

A bit nasty for someone so WRONG. A vaguely worded press release may assuage the uninformed, but it doesn't change the facts on the ground.

You could do with further research yourself. Start by visiting the Service Discussion forum and counting the number of people screaming because they can't get their money.

[Pale Phoenix]

The real question right now is when the panic selling will end and we can return to normal; far too many people are weak handed sellers.

People are panicky, but we have to admit that this is a very uncertain time in mining game. There are numerous well funded competitors and lots of hashrate coming online seemingly every day. At the very least, someone could rationally conclude that AM's margins have to fall.

There's no question in my mind that AM is still the least risky bet out there, but I find it difficult to predict much of anything in this shifting market, and the lack of solid information makes it that much harder.

[Vycid]

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

A bit nasty for someone so WRONG. A vaguely worded press release may assuage the uninformed, but it doesn't change the facts on the ground.

You could do with further research yourself. Start by visiting the Service Discussion forum and counting the number of people screaming because they can't get their money.

The nastiness is because people don't like me much around here, don't worry (I was the Original Bear™). If wrong and right mattered they would have listened and debated instead of attacking me.

C'est la vie.

[peetas]

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

A bit nasty for someone so WRONG. A vaguely worded press release may assuage the uninformed, but it doesn't change the facts on the ground.

You could do with further research yourself. Start by visiting the Service Discussion forum and counting the number of people screaming because they can't get their money.

+1 been waiting for more than 3 weeks now.  Opened a ticket and they keep to their 'two week backlog' story because of supposed manual processing... Any excuse to delay payment

[stripykitteh]

I would like to thank Vycid for his posts here over the last few weeks and months. I haven't enjoyed reading a lot of them, but they certainly gave me food for thought.

As investors we should always spend some of our research time listening to contrary opinions, and then testing how they stand up against our own theories.

AM has had blades for sale for 10 days now. Last week our groupthink was that there was a delay getting coins back to friedcat. What is our response this week? Or do we start to think Vycid may have a point?

[OneBTCJay]

An outside possibility could be that dividends were held back for reinvestment into additional next-gen hardware...

[velacreations]

IAM has had blades for sale for 10 days now. Last week our groupthink was that there was a delay getting coins back to friedcat. What is our response this week? Or do we start to think Vycid may have a point?

well, group buys are still open, so those funds haven't gotten to FC, yet.  I am not sure if AM is actually shipping hardware at the moment, I recall a post on the main thread stating that one reseller had just received hardware yesterday.

[Pale Phoenix]

Or you could do some research. Withdrawals resumed in July.

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

A bit nasty for someone so WRONG. A vaguely worded press release may assuage the uninformed, but it doesn't change the facts on the ground.

You could do with further research yourself. Start by visiting the Service Discussion forum and counting the number of people screaming because they can't get their money.

The nastiness is because people don't like me much around here, don't worry (I was the Original Bear™). If wrong and right mattered they would have listened and debated instead of attacking me.

C'est la vie.

He he, I think this thread has given you a persecution complex. I was referring to tehelsper in my post.

[freedomno1]

IAM has had blades for sale for 10 days now. Last week our groupthink was that there was a delay getting coins back to friedcat. What is our response this week? Or do we start to think Vycid may have a point?

well, group buys are still open, so those funds haven't gotten to FC, yet.  I am not sure if AM is actually shipping hardware at the moment, I recall a post on the main thread stating that one reseller had just received hardware yesterday.

Must be one of the ones I just posted repost

Rocxie and coinbase lols
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=60803;sa=showPosts

Group Buys
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270999.120
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272566.40;topicseen
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=265985.0;topicseen