ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[velacreations]

(... As trolls go, much less classy than vycid, I have to say...)

+1
Vycid had his issues, but at least he could do basic math and knew wtf was going on.

[_mr_e]

Where are my dividends??? Havelock has still not paid out and Wednesday is over... No word from anyone, what is going on?

Delayed due to transferring PT from BTCT to HaveLock.

Well that's annoying. My shares are already on Havelock and I would like to purchase some shares with my dividends with the price is low!

[helixone]

Where are my dividends??? Havelock has still not paid out and Wednesday is over... No word from anyone, what is going on?

Delayed due to transferring PT from BTCT to HaveLock.

Well that's annoying. My shares are already on Havelock and I would like to purchase some shares with my dividends with the price is low!

I bet not as annoying as all the issuers having to deal with btct closing, bitfunder closing to US investors, and them having to find new exchanges or closing assets, and handling 100s or perhaps 1000s(?) of transfer requests.

Count your blessings, and keep in mind everyone is in the same boat.

-helixone

[Jutarul]

You are just plain wrong.... Money is a zero-sum game utility. It's like stores the economic energy. It's conserved. You cannot create energy wealth (economic energy) out of nowhere. Central banks can print money currency, but no one believes that they "create money". They simply take money wealth from one man's pocket and put it into another man's pocket. MoneyWealth is conserved....

Money Currency (spendable units of account) is not conserved. It is created/destroyed by extension and repayment of credit, both public (govt spending vs taxation) and private (in the banking system and money markets).  Base money currency (created by the central bank) is a very small part of total money + credit. Example: I loan you $100 and you give me an IOU redeemable on demand. If your credit is known to be good, that IOU is tradeable for $98, say. That is an extra $98 of credit-money come into existence.

Also, you are confusing value wealth and money. Value Wealth is most certainly not conserved. Example: if I run my car into my living room, I have destroyed value (though no money has changed hands).

Also, classical economics books DO assume (wrongly) money is conserved (for a great detailed explanation of this, read Mirowski's "More Heat Than Light").

Bitcoin is kind-of conserved because there is no credit economy to speak of.

Look up the wealth transfer mechanism as explained by Mike Maloney. You need to get the language clear between wealth (economic energy), money (medium of wealth exchange), currency (issued claim on money), and credit (expansion of the money supply through future settlement). Credit creation leads to credit consolidation cycles (i.e. booms and busts), which theoretically can only be mitigated through bankruptcies or a wealth transfer mechanism called inflation, which conducts wealth at each consolidation from lenders to borrowers. The current banking system owns the currency and credit creation franchise and thus subverts the access to real money and wealth. Bitcoin and projects like ZeroReserve will hopefully change that by offering a basis for an non-manipulated money supply and a leveled playing field for credit creation.

[supert]

You are just plain wrong.... Money is a zero-sum game utility. It's like stores the economic energy. It's conserved. You cannot create energy wealth (economic energy) out of nowhere. Central banks can print money currency, but no one believes that they "create money". They simply take money wealth from one man's pocket and put it into another man's pocket. MoneyWealth is conserved....

Money Currency (spendable units of account) is not conserved. It is created/destroyed by extension and repayment of credit, both public (govt spending vs taxation) and private (in the banking system and money markets).  Base money currency (created by the central bank) is a very small part of total money + credit. Example: I loan you $100 and you give me an IOU redeemable on demand. If your credit is known to be good, that IOU is tradeable for $98, say. That is an extra $98 of credit-money come into existence.

Also, you are confusing value wealth and money. Value Wealth is most certainly not conserved. Example: if I run my car into my living room, I have destroyed value (though no money has changed hands).

Also, classical economics books DO assume (wrongly) money is conserved (for a great detailed explanation of this, read Mirowski's "More Heat Than Light").

Bitcoin is kind-of conserved because there is no credit economy to speak of.

Look up the wealth transfer mechanism as explained by Mike Maloney. You need to get the language clear between wealth (economic energy), money (medium of wealth exchange), currency (issued claim on money), and credit (expansion of the money supply through future settlement). Credit creation leads to credit consolidation cycles (i.e. booms and busts), which theoretically can only be mitigated through bankruptcies or a wealth transfer mechanism called inflation, which conducts wealth at each consolidation from lenders to borrowers. The current banking system owns the currency and credit creation franchise and thus subverts the access to real money and wealth. Bitcoin and projects like ZeroReserve will hopefully change that by offering a basis for an non-manipulated money supply and a leveled playing field for credit creation.

Entirely agree with these comments and the distinction you make between currency and money.

[tinus42]

You are just plain wrong.... Money is a zero-sum game utility. It's like stores the economic energy. It's conserved. You cannot create energy wealth (economic energy) out of nowhere. Central banks can print money currency, but no one believes that they "create money". They simply take money wealth from one man's pocket and put it into another man's pocket. MoneyWealth is conserved....

Money Currency (spendable units of account) is not conserved. It is created/destroyed by extension and repayment of credit, both public (govt spending vs taxation) and private (in the banking system and money markets).  Base money currency (created by the central bank) is a very small part of total money + credit. Example: I loan you $100 and you give me an IOU redeemable on demand. If your credit is known to be good, that IOU is tradeable for $98, say. That is an extra $98 of credit-money come into existence.

Also, you are confusing value wealth and money. Value Wealth is most certainly not conserved. Example: if I run my car into my living room, I have destroyed value (though no money has changed hands).

Also, classical economics books DO assume (wrongly) money is conserved (for a great detailed explanation of this, read Mirowski's "More Heat Than Light").

Bitcoin is kind-of conserved because there is no credit economy to speak of.

Look up the wealth transfer mechanism as explained by Mike Maloney. You need to get the language clear between wealth (economic energy), money (medium of wealth exchange), currency (issued claim on money), and credit (expansion of the money supply through future settlement). Credit creation leads to credit consolidation cycles (i.e. booms and busts), which theoretically can only be mitigated through bankruptcies or a wealth transfer mechanism called inflation, which conducts wealth at each consolidation from lenders to borrowers. The current banking system owns the currency and credit creation franchise and thus subverts the access to real money and wealth. Bitcoin and projects like ZeroReserve will hopefully change that by offering a basis for an non-manipulated money supply and a leveled playing field for credit creation.

J.P. Morgan famously said "money is gold, everything else is credit". Were he alive today he might say "money is gold and bitcoin, everything else is credit". 

[jeffshed]

not many buyers out there...btct shares getting processed...this is going to be a shitstorm....

lots of bagholders

[supert]

On the ship, tied to the mast.

[Lohoris]

You are just plain wrong.... Money is a zero-sum game utility. It's like stores the economic energy. It's conserved. You cannot create energy wealth (economic energy) out of nowhere. Central banks can print money currency, but no one believes that they "create money". They simply take money wealth from one man's pocket and put it into another man's pocket. MoneyWealth is conserved....

Money Currency (spendable units of account) is not conserved. It is created/destroyed by extension and repayment of credit, both public (govt spending vs taxation) and private (in the banking system and money markets).  Base money currency (created by the central bank) is a very small part of total money + credit. Example: I loan you $100 and you give me an IOU redeemable on demand. If your credit is known to be good, that IOU is tradeable for $98, say. That is an extra $98 of credit-money come into existence.

Also, you are confusing value wealth and money. Value Wealth is most certainly not conserved. Example: if I run my car into my living room, I have destroyed value (though no money has changed hands).

Also, classical economics books DO assume (wrongly) money is conserved (for a great detailed explanation of this, read Mirowski's "More Heat Than Light").

Bitcoin is kind-of conserved because there is no credit economy to speak of.

Look up the wealth transfer mechanism as explained by Mike Maloney. You need to get the language clear between wealth (economic energy), money (medium of wealth exchange), currency (issued claim on money), and credit (expansion of the money supply through future settlement). Credit creation leads to credit consolidation cycles (i.e. booms and busts), which theoretically can only be mitigated through bankruptcies or a wealth transfer mechanism called inflation, which conducts wealth at each consolidation from lenders to borrowers. The current banking system owns the currency and credit creation franchise and thus subverts the access to real money and wealth. Bitcoin and projects like ZeroReserve will hopefully change that by offering a basis for an non-manipulated money supply and a leveled playing field for credit creation.

All this for free, thanks! : )

So much for huhai "send me coins I'll explain you stuff you don't understand", lol.

[dexX7]

So far it seems like Ukyo won't export AM shares from BF. This will probably result in even lower prices. Therefore BF.AM shares are inferior. Keep this in mind when you see some crazy stuff.



Always remember:

The cat has a plan.

[pascal257]

So far it seems like Ukyo won't export AM shares from BF.

Do you assume that from Ukyo beeing MIA or do you have specific information?

[dexX7]

Do you assume that from Ukyo beeing MIA or do you have specific information?

Two speculative reasons:

1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...

2. TAT declines to accept BF.AM (full) shares. This is not a new situation and nothing special-post-BF-closure-for-US issue.

That said, Ukyo never declined it, but neither ever confirmed it.

Ukyo MIA?

<+gribble> ukyo was last seen in #bitfunder 11 hours, 51 minutes, and 36 seconds ago: <Ukyo> cool

[Lohoris]

1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...

Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?
(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)

[ThickAsThieves]

1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...

Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?
(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)

Yes. This is something he already noted publicly, and can be seen by looking at the public wallet address he holds the shares in.

EDIT: Apparently this has been corrected.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

1. I asked several times when he cleary was around and very likely read the question. It seems he doesn't want to answer. The export question is probably #1 question in the BF.AM thread anyway. Though there is a minimal chance, that he "just missed it" ...

Is it possible that he for some reason lost some shares, and is operating as a fractional reserve?
(of course paying dividends would become a problem in this case
(and this is one more reason paying dividends is much better than not paying them)
)

Yes. This is something he already noted publicly, and can be seen by looking at the public wallet address he holds the shares in.

This address is?

[dexX7]

Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi

[ThickAsThieves]

Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi

If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.

[pastfarian]

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me.

I think the majority of people have misinterpreted this comment, if you read it more clearly it has the opposite connotation, AM is preparing itself so that Gen2 will be competitive even if the ASIC manufacturing industry is faced with single digit % profits. do you see the difference? They will produce Gen2 at a low enough cost that they can chase the margin down to single digits to squeeze the competition. I think the interpretation that GEN2 will be produced and out of the gate only see single digit % profits... i find it laughable that anybody could have made this assumption. my 2 cents.

In a mature industry margins are squeezed to zero. The only exceptions are brands, which command a premium. ASICs are becoming commodity hardware and over the whole industry, at the margin, the margins will be driven to zero. In this sense the bears are right.

Asicminer has both early mover advantage, which is short term, and the advantage of having personal relationships with manufacturers in Shenzen to produce hardware at cost. The latter is 'invincible' and it is this you are investing in when buying shares in Asicminer as a mining company. In addition, friedcat has proven adaptable and an astute strategist. There is also a hope therefore he can create new value opportunities as a businessman.

Others' advantages could be hosting costs/power. The franchising model hopefully can marry this with friedcat's manufacturing advantage.

I agree with the part about the mature industry, but what the time frames that i am talking about are the next 2-6 months (rest of this year to say end of Q1 2014) we are still going to be in double digit returns territory, even in bitcoin that seems where time seems to move like dog years, we won't mature that fast. But this is all besides the point, what i was referring to is the interpretation of the message from FC, I don't think they are predicting single digit returns, I think they are forward thinking, again to the "invincible" manufacturing costs.

Lets look at it this way, and i'm not saying this is the only way, but lets try and see if we can get an eye into the mind of some of these different ASIC competitors, one of the reasons I like AM is that they are going for "invincible" manufacturing costs, they aren't trying to produce a 10 Th chip the size of a playing card, instead they are using smaller chips with, and this is a guess, lower $/th production costs, meanwhile all the competition is talking about their gen2 products being monster chips, i have a feeling AM is going to break this trend and will come out with a smaller chip and an ultimately lower cost/unit and cost/Th. In a year or two, when ASIC manufacturing start to approach "mature" industry status, it will be the cost/Th of the units that come out in the next couple months that determines who will be a viable player, and who will not.

[pastfarian]

Actually the numbers match, so he does seem to hold all shares:

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT#pane_divs
http://blockchain.info/address/124pXdLYTZtAQ95gHdL43fTofaS5bHqAFi

If it adds up now, he must have purchased to fix it after his announcement.

So let me get this straight: Ukyo was fractioning his AM shares, got margin called (or however you want to put it), had to buy the shares at market, and now is MIA? How many shares are we talking about here?

[User705]

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me.

I think the majority of people have misinterpreted this comment, if you read it more clearly it has the opposite connotation, AM is preparing itself so that Gen2 will be competitive even if the ASIC manufacturing industry is faced with single digit % profits. do you see the difference? They will produce Gen2 at a low enough cost that they can chase the margin down to single digits to squeeze the competition. I think the interpretation that GEN2 will be produced and out of the gate only see single digit % profits... i find it laughable that anybody could have made this assumption. my 2 cents.

In a mature industry margins are squeezed to zero. The only exceptions are brands, which command a premium. ASICs are becoming commodity hardware and over the whole industry, at the margin, the margins will be driven to zero. In this sense the bears are right.

Asicminer has both early mover advantage, which is short term, and the advantage of having personal relationships with manufacturers in Shenzen to produce hardware at cost. The latter is 'invincible' and it is this you are investing in when buying shares in Asicminer as a mining company. In addition, friedcat has proven adaptable and an astute strategist. There is also a hope therefore he can create new value opportunities as a businessman.

Others' advantages could be hosting costs/power. The franchising model hopefully can marry this with friedcat's manufacturing advantage.

I agree with the part about the mature industry, but what the time frames that i am talking about are the next 2-6 months (rest of this year to say end of Q1 2014) we are still going to be in double digit returns territory, even in bitcoin that seems where time seems to move like dog years, we won't mature that fast. But this is all besides the point, what i was referring to is the interpretation of the message from FC, I don't think they are predicting single digit returns, I think they are forward thinking, again to the "invincible" manufacturing costs.

Lets look at it this way, and i'm not saying this is the only way, but lets try and see if we can get an eye into the mind of some of these different ASIC competitors, one of the reasons I like AM is that they are going for "invincible" manufacturing costs, they aren't trying to produce a 10 Th chip the size of a playing card, instead they are using smaller chips with, and this is a guess, lower $/th production costs, meanwhile all the competition is talking about their gen2 products being monster chips, i have a feeling AM is going to break this trend and will come out with a smaller chip and an ultimately lower cost/unit and cost/Th. In a year or two, when ASIC manufacturing start to approach "mature" industry status, it will be the cost/Th of the units that come out in the next couple months that determines who will be a viable player, and who will not.

The problems with that is the extra stuff around the chips already costs more then the gen1 chips themselves so you are forced to go to next generations.