ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Lohoris]

And this isn't a working platform because? https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

Because they aren't accepting new securities, which means that they are considering if they should close down of put some limitations.
(they also stated something about that, though I'm not sure what exactly and I can't be bothered to search for it)

[helixone]

And this isn't a working platform because? https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

no volume

Sadly, we are at a state where AM1 on Havelock currently has by far the highest 24-hour volume (in btc) of any other asset traded on *any* bitcoin-assets exchange today, including OTC, MPEx, Havelock and Bitfunder. It's also about 10 times higher 24-hour volume than any other market that is trading ASICMINER shares.

225.2btc * 187.49999 = $42,225.00 24-hr volume.

For context:
24-hr vol bf: 27.83 btc
24-hr vol 796: 1.91 btc

I think if things remain as they are, HL will be the place to go to trade this asset. (We'll see how OTC picks up as former BTCT holders start running Auctions)

I'd guess, that part of the reason for low volume across the board, is that market participants are in paralysis, and don't know which way the wind is blowing. (And are a bit shell shocked from recent developments.)

I guess I'm being pedantic, when I questioned your wording "working platform". In my mind, I've always tried to get a sense of the volume weighted price, so in today's market HL price is the most relevant price.

-helixone

[Swordsoffreedom]

BitFunder (supposedly) has 12621 shares
Havelock has 7373 shares

This, out of 400000.

It should include TAT shares another 3725 + 66/100s

Bitfunder adds 350 to the total

[velacreations]

And this isn't a working platform because? https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

no volume

Sadly, we are at a state where AM1 on Havelock currently has by far the highest 24-hour volume (in btc) of any other asset traded on *any* bitcoin-assets exchange today, including OTC, MPEx, Havelock and Bitfunder. It's also about 10 times higher 24-hour volume than any other market that is trading ASICMINER shares.

HL has the highest volume compared to an exchange that doesn't carry AM (MPEx), to an exchange that doesn't let US investors buy (BF), or an exchange that's little better than a scam (796).

So, that's not saying much.  You're talking about ~300 shares on a 24 day volume, there's no liquidity there. You can drop the price 15% on HL by selling a dozen shares (or less). There's been a surge since the BF debacle, but how sustainable is that?  This week is seeing the highest volume EVER on HL, but I am not betting that it will last.

I would suspect that the majority of people that had shares on BTCT are now holding direct shares, and waiting for a better alternative.

I would hesitate to put much faith in a value based on such thin order books.

[Rival]

And this isn't a working platform because? https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

no volume

Sadly, we are at a state where AM1 on Havelock currently has by far the highest 24-hour volume (in btc) of any other asset traded on *any* bitcoin-assets exchange today, including OTC, MPEx, Havelock and Bitfunder. It's also about 10 times higher 24-hour volume than any other market that is trading ASICMINER shares.

HL has the highest volume compared to an exchange that doesn't carry AM (MPEx), to an exchange that doesn't let US investors buy (BF), or an exchange that's little better than a scam (796).

So, that's not saying much.  You're talking about ~300 shares on a 24 day volume, there's no liquidity there. You can drop the price 15% on HL by selling a dozen shares (or less). There's been a surge since the BF debacle, but how sustainable is that?  This week is seeing the highest volume EVER on HL, but I am not betting that it will last.

I would suspect that the majority of people that had shares on BTCT are now holding direct shares, and waiting for a better alternative.

I would hesitate to put much faith in a value based on such thin order books.

It appears FC will be offering us that alternative you seek in the near future. I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

[freedomno1]

And this isn't a working platform because? https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

no volume

Sadly, we are at a state where AM1 on Havelock currently has by far the highest 24-hour volume (in btc) of any other asset traded on *any* bitcoin-assets exchange today, including OTC, MPEx, Havelock and Bitfunder. It's also about 10 times higher 24-hour volume than any other market that is trading ASICMINER shares.

HL has the highest volume compared to an exchange that doesn't carry AM (MPEx), to an exchange that doesn't let US investors buy (BF), or an exchange that's little better than a scam (796).

So, that's not saying much.  You're talking about ~300 shares on a 24 day volume, there's no liquidity there. You can drop the price 15% on HL by selling a dozen shares (or less). There's been a surge since the BF debacle, but how sustainable is that?  This week is seeing the highest volume EVER on HL, but I am not betting that it will last.

I would suspect that the majority of people that had shares on BTCT are now holding direct shares, and waiting for a better alternative.

I would hesitate to put much faith in a value based on such thin order books.

24 Hour Volume Vela not 24 Day

While its not super liquid it is a reliable exchange that has been reliable traded upon as long as btct and bitfunder that said you are right it is difficult to get high volume trading going and I do not see it being possible for the mid-term until we see a stabilization from the shock of two exchanges closing the doors to US investors but aside of that mid-level trading can be done with relative ease.

But your right of all the exchanges it is the most traded asset, I do not see that situation changing for a while as all the Labcoin speculators are homeless for now after all  

(Aka back to the most traded asset lol)

[velacreations]

24 Hour Volume Vela not 24 Day

yes, thanks for the correction.  24 hour volume is ~300 shares, not very large.

While its not super liquid it is a reliable exchange that has been reliable traded upon as long as btct and bitfunder that said you are right it is difficult to get high volume trading going and I do not see it being possible for the mid-term until we see a stabilization from the shock of two exchanges closing the doors to US investors but aside of that mid-level trading can be done with relative ease.

But your right of all the exchanges it is the most traded asset, I do not see that situation changing for a while as all the Labcoin speculators are homeless for now after all 

(Aka back to the most traded asset lol)

I don't know how dependable it is as an exchange.  It's certainly not the most user friendly. 

I await an alternative, and hopefully AM can lead in that area of the bitcoin economy, too.

[Vycid]

I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

But your assertion is that we cannot rule out a value of 7.5 BTC per share! That would be equivalent to a market cap of 3 million BTC, or 25% of the Bitcoins in existence.

This, for a company currently struggling with 1-2% of the hashrate and no competitive 2nd gen chip announced.

[donut]

I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

But your assertion is that we cannot rule out a value of 7.5 BTC per share! That would be equivalent to a market cap of 3 million BTC, or 25% of the Bitcoins in existence.

This, for a company currently struggling with 1-2% of the hashrate and no competitive 2nd gen chip announced.

He also means that we cannot rule out a value of 0.075 BTC/share. Chillax.

[tinus42]

I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

Bitfunder prices are depreciated because of the new site rules demanding verification and excluding US residents. But I'm sure you know that already.

[Vycid]

I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

Bitfunder prices are depreciated because of the new site rules demanding verification and excluding US residents. But I'm sure you know that already.

Then that would imply an order-of-magnitude fair price potentially HIGHER than 7.5 BTC, is that your point?

Havelock is trading at right about 0.75 BTC too, though, so I don't see that "depreciation" you're talking about. If anything the differential is smaller than it was when both BTCT and Bitfunder were running normally.

[VeeMiner]

Havelock is trading at right about 0.75 BTC too, though, so I don't see that "depreciation" you're talking about. If anything the differential is smaller than it was when both BTCT and Bitfunder were running normally.

so did you buy any shares in the end?

[Lohoris]

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

So you still value it at 0.5 BTC?

Did you factor in the new ventures they are going to explore?

i.e. you factor them exactly 0, or you factor them to a positive, but you dropped your valutation of the original mining business, so that they add up anyway to 0.5?

[freedomno1]

Waiting on the financials to determine just how much is cash and how much is reserve before making any valuations here

[chriswilmer]

So... does anybody know what ASICMiner's plans are for future mining hardware?

[tinus42]

I don't think at the moment there is any model that can even determine the fair value of a share of AM within an order of magnitude. There is just too much we do not know at this time.

And yet STILL you cling to your irrationality! Bitfunder currently suggests a share price of 0.75/BTC, a price at this point still looks fairly generous to me.

Bitfunder prices are depreciated because of the new site rules demanding verification and excluding US residents. But I'm sure you know that already.

Then that would imply an order-of-magnitude fair price potentially HIGHER than 7.5 BTC, is that your point?

Havelock is trading at right about 0.75 BTC too, though, so I don't see that "depreciation" you're talking about. If anything the differential is smaller than it was when both BTCT and Bitfunder were running normally.

I'd guess the Havelock price and the prices on the Auctions board are affected by what happened to BTCT and Bitfunder. Eventually this will settle down.

[talnted]

looks like again shares are pushing lower ahead of dividends... Havelock at .6 may see it hit .5 before asicminer gets going again with higher dividends in a month

[101111]

Div prediction? I'm thinking around .007

in edit
while I'm here, this is worth viewing if you haven't seen it:

Bullish on bitcoin
22 October 2013

Richard Brown, executive architect, IBM thinks the future for crypto-currencies looks very bright. 

http://www.finextra.com/Video/Video.aspx?videoid=513

[JimiQ84]

Div prediction? I'm thinking around .007

My name is Div. Div Idend.

It's gonna be lower, same as last time.

[101111]

You are probbaly right; but do you think FC may lower his take since the btc price has risen?