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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917279 times)
lyth0s
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June 29, 2015, 10:19:45 PM
 #3041

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...



That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

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SmoothCurves
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June 29, 2015, 10:24:40 PM
 #3042

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...



That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.
lyth0s
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June 29, 2015, 11:00:10 PM
 #3043

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...



That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.

Could you please explain why you divided the ATH by 2.22? And where did the 156 multiple come from?

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SmoothCurves
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June 29, 2015, 11:39:26 PM
 #3044

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom
RyNinDaCleM
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June 30, 2015, 12:02:13 AM
 #3045

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

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June 30, 2015, 03:45:07 AM
 #3046

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ?
SmoothCurves
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June 30, 2015, 04:07:41 AM
 #3047

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.
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June 30, 2015, 04:23:02 AM
 #3048

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ?

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.


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June 30, 2015, 04:53:28 AM
 #3049



From this 6 months old analyse

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/nOHd1wTW-1-Year-falling-wedge-is-close-to-completion/
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June 30, 2015, 06:19:09 AM
 #3050




To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.



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June 30, 2015, 06:30:02 AM
 #3051

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ?

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.



We gotta go up now. By such a big margin.
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June 30, 2015, 06:52:50 AM
 #3052

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.

how long is 'long'?



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June 30, 2015, 07:32:13 AM
 #3053

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

oda.krell
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June 30, 2015, 08:02:53 AM
 #3054

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

Looks to me like we had a very similar set up in June '14 already: DSMA200 broken, weekly close above SMA20, and the then most plausible log downtrend line was decisively broken a few days before. Didn't help in the end, price fell back below the DSMA200, struggled a bit, then broke down entirely.

So, to me it looks rather like we have another real shot at breaking out of the yearly trend, but not that it's a certainty we will do so.

Then again, maybe that's where EW comes in, and I just don't know much about it.

Perhaps those who count just have a strong intuition that June was 'too early', and now is 'about right', so: June '14 and now are very different, even if, from my perspective, the two situations look similar.


P.S. Thanks luc for your continued input. This is probably my favorite thread on the entire forum.

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June 30, 2015, 08:14:33 AM
 #3055

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.



indeed.

it is quite concerning given the fact that the volume is not so convincing and that an altcoin is having unreal bull run.
Afrikoin
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June 30, 2015, 08:19:19 AM
 #3056

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.
 

That OR, bears (like myself) have retreated. gone back to our caves. Bulls are out partying.

Regarding June 14




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June 30, 2015, 09:08:55 AM
 #3057

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.
 

That OR, bears (like myself) have retreated. gone back to our caves. Bulls are out partying.

Regarding June 14




Well a few points to add to you and Oda.

I think a run up to $410 right here would be like Christmas for the bulls. 18 months of bear is oppressive.  When you see people talk to $120k bitcoin on next wave, its just blowing off steam. At least right now.

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.
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June 30, 2015, 09:39:12 AM
 #3058

Well a few points to add to you and Oda.

I think a run up to $410 right here would be like Christmas for the bulls. 18 months of bear is oppressive.  When you see people talk to $120k bitcoin on next wave, its just blowing off steam. At least right now.

However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.

Good to read you again.

Agreed. Impending halving, and that we have the strongest order book picture in a long time, are both valid reasons to be bullish.

Maybe my post came across the wrong way:

I'm not bearish. I'm just not convinced that "dsma200+wsma20+logTL" = end of bear market. It rather signals "another serious attempt to end it", imo.

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h3speros
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June 30, 2015, 09:46:20 AM
 #3059

to be clear luc has said previously that if price breaks w20 goes to upper line then bounces from middle line then he thinks odds for bull get considerably higher (not exactly hes words)

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
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June 30, 2015, 09:50:37 AM
 #3060

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

I am not really understand what does master mean due to my poor english reading.

3 (Weekly sma20)   breakout or not yet?
2 (Daily sma200)    breakout or not yet?
1 (Log trendline)     breakout or not yet?
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