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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916604 times)
phoenix1
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June 16, 2015, 02:16:01 PM
 #2981


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

Are you aware how much a new car depreciates in the first month of ownership? If yes, then your post was sarcastic.
Greeks may turn to precious metals instead. Or gems, or whatever can be bought in Greece and sold for euros later.

No, I am completely unaware how much cars depereciate  Roll Eyes

This has not been stopping Greeks from buying them, as hypothesised here, to evade upcoming capital controls. I am not talking about what they might do, I am talking about what they have already been doing for months.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11599513/The-real-sign-that-Greeces-financial-turmoil-is-getting-worse.html

As I said, I doubt there is very much capital left in Greece to actually flee. It's not current events are actually a surprise is it ... this has to be the slowest, most drawn out train-wreck in recent history.

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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masterluc
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June 16, 2015, 04:34:15 PM
 #2982

It is obvious that something happening, but log downtrend picture is confusing.

This is stamp



This is btcchina



And this is huobi



Somewhere price not reached upper line, somewhere it touches it, somewhere breaks.

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June 16, 2015, 04:40:19 PM
 #2983

Price reminded to drop and tries to return to escape channel



Also it attempts to return to positive weekly bb range



Daily 200 sma is here



So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

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June 16, 2015, 06:21:49 PM
 #2984

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?
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June 16, 2015, 09:20:50 PM
 #2985

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

sure that is a scenario.

a likely one?

i doubt it. If we clear 300 for any meaningful period of time, we will never see these numbers again.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
masterluc
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June 16, 2015, 09:39:30 PM
 #2986

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

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June 16, 2015, 09:47:38 PM
 #2987

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
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June 16, 2015, 09:52:23 PM
 #2988

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
Indeed, the rumblings are indicating something quite special is in the mix. I don't know about you guys but I sure am set up quite nicely atm. Good times ahead for a change.
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June 16, 2015, 09:58:43 PM
 #2989

I've  been watching BTC during that time we have had longer periods of stability and so Value has increased 8% in 2 weeks, that's definitely something to be pleased about.
masterluc
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June 16, 2015, 10:01:43 PM
 #2990

The undertones here sound bullish.

Undertones are confusing. From one side I see great harm for further bearish development with this impulse. From other I don't believe it will just blow up daily 200 sma (and log downtrend somewhere there) from 1st strike, while sma is near.

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June 16, 2015, 10:08:22 PM
 #2991

Then I guess the best bet right now is still sitting and waiting. With fiat ready once market makes move.
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June 17, 2015, 12:20:39 PM
 #2992

ma200 is here, correction overdue. And if it is, there are new hidden divergences.



bank of bits
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June 17, 2015, 01:35:05 PM
 #2993

I'm expecting some nice long-term gains - wouldn't be surprised at all to see $300 before the end of the month.
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June 19, 2015, 04:39:06 AM
 #2994

If we make it to the Upper Weekly BB - and if we close above the middle band this week it looks like that is where we are headed - then things will get interesting. Historically, bitcoin price has ridden the Upper Weekly BB during growth periods.

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June 19, 2015, 08:12:18 AM
 #2995

If we make it to the Upper Weekly BB - and if we close above the middle band this week it looks like that is where we are headed - then things will get interesting. Historically, bitcoin price has ridden the Upper Weekly BB during growth periods.


Can you post a chart?
magicmexican
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June 19, 2015, 09:12:23 AM
 #2996

I'm expecting some nice long-term gains - wouldn't be surprised at all to see $300 before the end of the month.

I actually would be very surprised if that happens. A lot of bookies give btc almost 0% chance to pass 350$ before July 1st, and i would think that chances of 300% are just a little bit higher, but still in a very low single digits
Okurkabinladin
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June 25, 2015, 06:52:45 AM
 #2997

This thread just got awfully abandoned in the past week. Do we have any updates on recent price developments?
masterluc
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June 25, 2015, 07:28:16 PM
 #2998

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

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June 25, 2015, 08:26:24 PM
 #2999

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/
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June 25, 2015, 08:43:00 PM
 #3000

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

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