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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917279 times)
RyNinDaCleM
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June 25, 2015, 08:56:43 PM
 #3001

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit

The Greece 2013 thing was a coincidence. I have yet to see proof that the bubble was in any significant way driven by Greek Euros.

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BitcoinNewsMagazine
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June 25, 2015, 09:34:17 PM
 #3002

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit

The Greece 2013 thing was a coincidence. I have yet to see proof that the bubble was in any significant way driven by Greek Euros.

Thanks! Got it now, thanks for the explanation, much appreciated.

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June 25, 2015, 09:39:01 PM
 #3003

...
The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit
...

I'll try to explain why I find it not impulsive: the first pump of January to 315$ looked somewhat impulsive initially, but it didn't hold, it deflated very quickly.
In an incipient bull market, it should have lasted close to it's top for around 10 days. The second pump of March failed to reach higher levels and while it lasted
longer close to it's top, it deflated too deep to allow a third pump, that would break 315$ resistance and make a decent case for an incipient bull market.

If the fundamentals would change, some new demand for bitcoin would appear, then breaking 315$ would be possible, and after a correction, we would see a new ascending trend.
But recently the market failed to reach my target of ~270$ while being seriously overbought, so now I'm only expecting sideways (which may include a 15$ pump) then down a lot.
I am not sure how much the last capitulation will take, I hope not much longer than 6 months.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
saturn643
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June 25, 2015, 10:07:04 PM
 #3004

Plenty of traders are still salivating at the possibility of sub $200 prices that I'm not sure will materialize without some sort of event that causes a real panic.
inca
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June 25, 2015, 10:27:38 PM
 #3005

...
The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit
...

I'll try to explain why I find it not impulsive: the first pump of January to 315$ looked somewhat impulsive initially, but it didn't hold, it deflated very quickly.
In an incipient bull market, it should have lasted close to it's top for around 10 days. The second pump of March failed to reach higher levels and while it lasted
longer close to it's top, it deflated too deep to allow a third pump, that would break 315$ resistance and make a decent case for an incipient bull market.

If the fundamentals would change, some new demand for bitcoin would appear, then breaking 315$ would be possible, and after a correction, we would see a new ascending trend.
But recently the market failed to reach my target of ~270$ while being seriously overbought, so now I'm only expecting sideways (which may include a 15$ pump) then down a lot.
I am not sure how much the last capitulation will take, I hope not much longer than 6 months.

The problem with that Tzupy is a single 20 dollar pump tomorrow negates everything you said. Sure the price could drop down into oblivion, but it is far closer technically to breaking out.

AceWallen
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June 25, 2015, 10:59:46 PM
 #3006

Plenty of traders are still salivating at the possibility of sub $200 prices that I'm not sure will materialize without some sort of event that causes a real panic.

hmmm, maybe. in fact, this is the rhetoric i've been seeing from bulls in the TV chat. the problem is that sentiment seems to have turned overwhelmingly bullish, and in fact, most seem to be salivating for $300+. so there's that.
thefiniteidea
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June 26, 2015, 12:01:56 AM
 #3007

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

EUR will probably break up and DXY down... Bitcoin? I dont think much will happen.

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AceWallen
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June 26, 2015, 12:06:05 AM
 #3008

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

EUR will probably break up and DXY down... Bitcoin? I dont think much will happen.

interesting -- you think Grexit will cause Euro to break to the upside? or you think Grexit will not happen? i agree regarding bitcoin -- i don't think much will happen there. but this could have huge effects on FX and stocks. tough to call, really.
HeliKopterBen
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June 26, 2015, 06:27:36 AM
 #3009

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit

The Greece 2013 thing was a coincidence. I have yet to see proof that the bubble was in any significant way driven by Greek Euros.

IMO there is a plausible bullish count that would allow for a new ATH.  I will share it if it actually works out.  A good EW technician should have an alternate count, even if it's just to keep reality in check.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
masterluc
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June 26, 2015, 06:40:42 AM
 #3010

I agree that previous 150 bottom looks like completed zigzag correction.

But while weekly sma20, daily sma200 and long term trendline resides upside - it is bearish trend.

masterluc
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June 26, 2015, 06:54:15 AM
 #3011

And this is what a bottom should look like (impulsive bounce)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zigDailyzczsg2011-10-28zeg2012-02-27ztgSzbgBza1gSMAzm1g20za2gSMAzm2g200zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gADXzi4gSStochzv

intighet
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June 27, 2015, 07:35:52 AM
 #3012


This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?


This can never happen because markets are anti- inductive.

Malus pro bono surrepat, et bonus pro malo displiceat; fallaces enim sunt rerum species, quibus credidimus.
masterluc
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June 27, 2015, 05:15:33 PM
 #3013

I think this is bullish. For the 1st time since almost year price got into weeklly bb positive zone



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June 27, 2015, 05:19:00 PM
 #3014

I think this is bullish. For the 1st time since almost year price got into weeklly bb positive zone




You heard him folks. Grin

Boom
masterluc
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June 27, 2015, 05:30:06 PM
 #3015

But keep in mind there are two major resistances ahead - daily ma200 and log trend line




masterluc
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June 27, 2015, 10:23:59 PM
 #3016

But never seen before weekly ma200 is not gonna surrender


Okurkabinladin
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June 28, 2015, 12:44:21 PM
 #3017

I guess then, this means triangle and more standoff and more waiting. Upcoming market move could be huge.

Any ETA on this?
masterluc
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June 29, 2015, 12:50:22 PM
 #3018

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...


Voktar
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June 29, 2015, 01:10:09 PM
 #3019

Sorry Master, but for the newbies... What's does wave III means?

I googled it with no luck, just curiosity, i dont trade much...

And thanks for sharing your thougts Wink
L0uis
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June 29, 2015, 01:12:23 PM
 #3020

Usually the largest wave
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