[ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning

[poornamelessme]

They would be the most hated group of people in the crypto world if that happens but legally they are not required to launch this thing. If you read their TOS it reads like the rules of the worst company in the world

It does read that way.

I don't disagree with any of the scenarios presented, just I wonder if there is any scenario where ipo people could actually make any money initially. I have difficulty coming up with one due to the insane amounts invested (otherwise I would have put a btc or two into this). It's like a much worse maidsafe scenario ... it'd seem really unlikely for investors to recoup their money early on. And in that case, of course it makes sense to just wait.

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[windjc]

But if the amount of ether sold continues to get bigger, i mean there is almost a month left, if at the end of this sale there are 200 millions of ether sold, what would you do? do you think a new brand alt coin will support a 100,000 btc price? this ipo can get trapped on his own success. at least for investors, not for the owners.

Yes, that was my theory as well. Also the reason I wagered that >25000 BTC will be invested (even suggested that up to 50000 will be invested!)

My rationale behind this is the following, the amount of BTC that needs to be pumped into this coin after the launch will be enourmous, if now all people buy in the IPO, this number gets bigger and bigger in addition to that everyone already bought that was interested! So who will be the buyers that buy at over IPO prices? 

I don't know that, and most others don't either!

Congrats on winning our bet!

Ethereum is going to be the biggest IPO debacle in crypto history.  There are going to be no buyers for this "coin." Thats the short term problem. So is the "where the hell are they ever going to justify spending $25 million dollars on CODING!"  Holy shit batman! This is a joke.

So here are all the likely things that are going to happen. "Investors" are going to be watching expenditures like a hawk. Anything that doesn't make sense to the public is going to cause a shitstorm.

On top of that Ethereum VC owners will control probably between 40-50k bitcoins. That is a huge cloud over the price of bitcoin and every bitcoin cashed in is going to be scrutinized.

Then there is the fact that the price will plummet. It has no choice but to plummet. No one is going to buy this coin.  Yes, there will be some buyers the first week or two. Then there will be no more buyers. ANY lack of ability to deliver is going to cause panic sells and once that happens 1 time the price will be permanently underwater.

Then the question is what would it take for the Ethereum investment to be profitable? Well, thats hard to quantify. As many wise people have noted, Ether is a coin to pay for contracts, etc built on top of the platform. If successful Ether will have its own market competition forces that will drive down the costs of transactions, making Ether LESS valuable long term.

And, OH BY THE WAY, Ether is INFLATIONARY. Wow. Just wow.

The odds of this ending well are so freaking minute. Its going to be a shitshow.

[BetMoose]

But if the amount of ether sold continues to get bigger, i mean there is almost a month left, if at the end of this sale there are 200 millions of ether sold, what would you do? do you think a new brand alt coin will support a 100,000 btc price? this ipo can get trapped on his own success. at least for investors, not for the owners.

Yes, that was my theory as well. Also the reason I wagered that >25000 BTC will be invested (even suggested that up to 50000 will be invested!)

My rationale behind this is the following, the amount of BTC that needs to be pumped into this coin after the launch will be enourmous, if now all people buy in the IPO, this number gets bigger and bigger in addition to that everyone already bought that was interested! So who will be the buyers that buy at over IPO prices? 

I don't know that, and most others don't either!

Congrats on winning our bet!

Ethereum is going to be the biggest IPO debacle in crypto history.  There are going to be no buyers for this "coin." Thats the short term problem. So is the "where the hell are they ever going to justify spending $25 million dollars on CODING!"  Holy shit batman! This is a joke.

So here are all the likely things that are going to happen. "Investors" are going to be watching expenditures like a hawk. Anything that doesn't make sense to the public is going to cause a shitstorm.

On top of that Ethereum VC owners will control probably between 40-50k bitcoins. That is a huge cloud over the price of bitcoin and every bitcoin cashed in is going to be scrutinized.

Then there is the fact that the price will plummet. It has no choice but to plummet. No one is going to buy this coin.  Yes, there will be some buyers the first week or two. Then there will be no more buyers. ANY lack of ability to deliver is going to cause panic sells and once that happens 1 time the price will be permanently underwater.

Then the question is what would it take for the Ethereum investment to be profitable? Well, thats hard to quantify. As many wise people have noted, Ether is a coin to pay for contracts, etc built on top of the platform. If successful Ether will have its own market competition forces that will drive down the costs of transactions, making Ether LESS valuable long term.

And, OH BY THE WAY, Ether is INFLATIONARY. Wow. Just wow.

The odds of this ending well are so freaking minute. Its going to be a shitshow.

I agree with this. Wanted to add that it'll also be a huge test of patience from the 'investors'. A niche technology built on top of/within another niche technology may take decades to play out, will have bugs, and likely be in competition with Bitcoin that will for the current foreseeable future still be #1 and get improvements that directly replace Ethereum's methods.

I'd love to hear from one of these 'investors' what their time horizon is on this, and what kind of profit they expect and why.

[btcusr]

just now bought some 2600+ ETH @ 1970. 

[GuruChris]

just now bought some 2600+ ETH @ 1970. 

Can I hear your reason as to why?

[domob]

I'd love to hear from one of these 'investors' what their time horizon is on this, and what kind of profit they expect and why.

I bought in in the first days, but only a minor amount.  I never expected to make a profit from it, just wanted to be part of it.  The few IPO-ETHs that I bought may be a nice souvenir in the future - or not.  But I definitely don't care to lose the money I put in, and I don't see why others are pouring such huge amounts of BTC in Ethereum at the moment.

[gustav]

the advantage of ETH is: it washes the last stupid money out of coinsmarkets and puts it in the hands of experienced money-sharks.
While the sheep donate their btc to GS the rest of us can buy up the good alts at extreme discountprices just before BTC and alts go to the moon once more. I think i can speak for the ethereum team and everybody else in altcoin-space when i say: "thank you for donating"

People who are like "i invested just to be part of it and i don't expect any returns" make me laugh really hard. The denial is epic.

[DannyElfman]

Yeah like some people think if they put in a small amount they help the project with it.

[trunzo]

But if the amount of ether sold continues to get bigger, i mean there is almost a month left, if at the end of this sale there are 200 millions of ether sold, what would you do? do you think a new brand alt coin will support a 100,000 btc price? this ipo can get trapped on his own success. at least for investors, not for the owners.

Yes, that was my theory as well. Also the reason I wagered that >25000 BTC will be invested (even suggested that up to 50000 will be invested!)

My rationale behind this is the following, the amount of BTC that needs to be pumped into this coin after the launch will be enourmous, if now all people buy in the IPO, this number gets bigger and bigger in addition to that everyone already bought that was interested! So who will be the buyers that buy at over IPO prices? 

I don't know that, and most others don't either!

Congrats on winning our bet!

Ethereum is going to be the biggest IPO debacle in crypto history.  There are going to be no buyers for this "coin." Thats the short term problem. So is the "where the hell are they ever going to justify spending $25 million dollars on CODING!"  Holy shit batman! This is a joke.

So here are all the likely things that are going to happen. "Investors" are going to be watching expenditures like a hawk. Anything that doesn't make sense to the public is going to cause a shitstorm.

On top of that Ethereum VC owners will control probably between 40-50k bitcoins. That is a huge cloud over the price of bitcoin and every bitcoin cashed in is going to be scrutinized.

Then there is the fact that the price will plummet. It has no choice but to plummet. No one is going to buy this coin.  Yes, there will be some buyers the first week or two. Then there will be no more buyers. ANY lack of ability to deliver is going to cause panic sells and once that happens 1 time the price will be permanently underwater.

Then the question is what would it take for the Ethereum investment to be profitable? Well, thats hard to quantify. As many wise people have noted, Ether is a coin to pay for contracts, etc built on top of the platform. If successful Ether will have its own market competition forces that will drive down the costs of transactions, making Ether LESS valuable long term.

And, OH BY THE WAY, Ether is INFLATIONARY. Wow. Just wow.

The odds of this ending well are so freaking minute. Its going to be a shitshow.

what do you mean? Did something happen? 

[xavier]

Can someone actually explain the purpose of ethereum? I mean, what is it used for exactly?

[profitofthegods]

Can someone actually explain the purpose of ethereum? I mean, what is it used for exactly?

Smart contracts. Basically I think the idea is that you can use it to put executable code on the block chain rather than just static information. This is used to create decentralized apps, storage, even 'decentralized automonous organisations' (businesses which run themselves without a human CEO).

[overthetop2011]

I got a very bad feeling about the IPO of ethereum now...

[DannyElfman]

I got a very bad feeling about the IPO of ethereum now...

When did you invest? How much?

[jeroenn13]

I got a very bad feeling about the IPO of ethereum now...

Why is that?
Nothing has been changed.

[mr_random]

I haven't invested.

One reason being that this isn't going to be ready for 6 months and I think in that timeframe there is a decent chance BTC will go on another bubble.

I'd rather have my money in BTC and alt coins with strong prospects than have it sitting doing nothing for half a year.

I also think for a project this innovative, it's likely the software development timeline will slip.

[profitofthegods]

I haven't invested.

One reason being that this isn't going to be ready for 6 months and I think in that timeframe there is a decent chance BTC will go on another bubble.

I'd rather have my money in BTC and alt coins with strong prospects than have it sitting doing nothing for half a year.

I also think for a project this innovative, it's likely the software development timeline will slip.

I agree that probably is the biggest risk in terms of buying ether as an investment using BTC (unless you rebuy your BTC afterwards). I think the price will probably go up after launch, but if Bitcoin goes back up to $1000 or above territory, then its unlikely that any increase in the value of ether will keep up with that.

[DannyElfman]

I haven't invested.

One reason being that this isn't going to be ready for 6 months and I think in that timeframe there is a decent chance BTC will go on another bubble.

I'd rather have my money in BTC and alt coins with strong prospects than have it sitting doing nothing for half a year.

I also think for a project this innovative, it's likely the software development timeline will slip.

I agree that probably is the biggest risk in terms of buying ether as an investment using BTC (unless you rebuy your BTC afterwards). I think the price will probably go up after launch, but if Bitcoin goes back up to $1000 or above territory, then its unlikely that any increase in the value of ether will keep up with that.

This is indeed a very big risk, but no the biggest. There are such high hopes for ethereum now, I think people will be very dissapointed and pissed once it actually launches, so in addition to very few people buying, many will desperately want to sell, just because they are pissed.

[tobeaj2mer01]

Why so many guys buy Ether, I don't think we can make money with this coin!

[jokumat]

true ethereum investors don't read bitcointalk threads.

Disclaimer: I am not one of them 

[Ursium]

Our commitment to transparency: Vitalik explains the planned withdrawal from our exodus address, within 48H -

https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/announcement-on-planned-exodus-withdrawal/