There are so many people waiting to invest this coin, so I think we can't earn much from this at the beginning.
Assuming ether is 1000:1 bitcoin.[1]
They are likely to raise 40,000 bitcoin. + 40% for themselves. This makes the genesis about 68,000 bitcoin * 1000 ether { 68,000,000 ether} to begin with for a supply that will be 30% or 20,000,000 ether per year.
In ten years the supply will be:
68,000,000 ether + ( 10 years * 20,000,000 ether mined per year) = 268,000,000 ether in circulation.
Everyone talks about the mythical $10,000 bitcoin, so lets use that as a guide for the next 10 year target.
Assuming in 10 years there are about 16 million bitcoin this brings the entire supply being worth about $160,000,000,000. (@$10,000 a coin)
So under this model your bitcoin gains 20 times value in ten years, not bad.
If the Ethereum supply instead is worth $160,000,000,000 because Ethereum became the main cryptocurrency due to it's potential intrinsic qualities [2] then that makes each ether worth:
$160 billion / 268 million ether = $600 per ether.
That means a one bitcoin investment in ether now works out to be worth 1000 ether in the future @ $600,000 total.
This model gives your one bitcoin investment into Ethereum a 1,200 times value increase in ten years.
This entire analysis kind of assumes one of either Ethereum or Bitcoin win as the primary cryptocurrency. In the real world we might find they co-exist at a ratio.
The good thing is that if Ethereum is 60 times smaller (market cap) than bitcoin, you still have equal value. Anything above that ratio nets you more value per ether and below that ratio nets you less value. [3]
Considering Litecoin exists at a ratio of 1:18~20 I find it very likely that investing in Ethereum makes you more value.
[1] The actual ratio doesn't matter at all for working out value.
[2] This assumes ethereum can be the primary power under web 3.0. It's likely native bitcoin can be made to compete via script upgrades or sidechains.
[3] If the market cap of Ethereum is 60 times smaller than bitcoin, taking our previous end values, bitcoin worth $10,000 and ether being worth $600, a 60 times reduction in ether value makes ether worth $10 and 1000 * 10 ether = $10,000
Notes:
- If over 200,000 bitcoin are raised in the IPO, it's very likely your return on value will be borderline not worth the risk. Personally if the genesis block is worth upwards of 80,000 bitcoin I will personally not take part.
- If the bitcoin core developers add more op codes into script or solve the sidechain mining issues, then it's possible ethereum value is completely destroyed.
- If ethereum becomes silver to bitcoins gold and replaces Litecoin, the 1:20 ratio will likely give your investment 3 times growth over just holding bitcoin. (If IPO starts of at 68,000 bitcoin via a 40,000 bitcoin raised)
