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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 108784 times)
notme
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October 25, 2017, 04:49:14 AM
 #521

Hello, has the positive/negative absolute value any meaning or is it just a relative number that can be either pos/neg without any implications?

+ is above the long term exponential trend
- is below it
0 is right on track

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 28, 2017, 11:25:05 AM
 #522

Update 27 Oct:

Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.

Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing








Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.






Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).

Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:

$20 468 based on line of best fit.

$14576 for conservative slope line.



If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).

That gives us cyclic price low of :

$1672 for line of best fit.

$1152 for conservative line.




If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in  300 days. The price will be:


$2727 based on line of best fit.

$1727 based on conservative line.




And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:

$35754 for line of best fit.

$25039 for conservative line.
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October 28, 2017, 07:17:05 PM
 #523

Thanks for this. Very helpful.

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October 28, 2017, 10:54:39 PM
 #524

Great post Daniel. This is the most bullish thread on this whole forum to me, imo
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October 29, 2017, 11:21:45 AM
 #525

Great post @DanielW

Have not you thought about adding a column with the date?

What is the index that you take as a reference? it seems that it is not Bitstamp

Do you update the value manually?

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October 29, 2017, 03:20:06 PM
 #526

Date:   28-Oct-2017
BETI:   -0.014
VWAP:   5736.04
x:   2,660
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101441
Rsq:   0.827748
Expected price:   5816.06
Actual price / expected price:   98.62%
BETI ATL price:   626.17
BETI ATH price:   37652.39
Expected date:   23-Oct-2017
# of days ahead:   -4.20
Daily VWAP rank:   7
Next expected price:   5835.27
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329692469867955++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101441113202961+%29   

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October 29, 2017, 03:25:32 PM
 #527

Thanks, it seems you used a different timeframe so your results is not same as mine

This is my data source:
  17 Jul 2010 to 18 Jun 2013: MtGox
  19 Jun 2013 to now: Bitstamp

Dates omitted:
  20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox closed)
  6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp closed)

Update 27 Oct:

Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread.

Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing








Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.






Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ).

Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of:

$20 468 based on line of best fit.

$14576 for conservative slope line.



If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility).

That gives us cyclic price low of :

$1672 for line of best fit.

$1152 for conservative line.




If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in  300 days. The price will be:


$2727 based on line of best fit.

$1727 based on conservative line.




And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be:

$35754 for line of best fit.

$25039 for conservative line.


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danielW
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October 30, 2017, 06:30:55 AM
 #528

Yes I used a slightly different timeframe.

Starting 31/7/2010 Mt Gox.

From 02/01/2012 Bitstamp. For any missing days I used previous available price.
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October 31, 2017, 09:42:34 AM
 #529

Hi guys,

hope you are all well.

For someone who is just entering BTC trading, do you have any links to read out how to interpret graphs, places to trade (coinbase or other exchanges?).

I really appreciate the work and follow the posts quite regularly but now I am about to enter the trade mode and wanted to do a little extra leg work before going in.

Appreciate your comments.

Thanks
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October 31, 2017, 11:54:30 AM
 #530

Date:   30-Oct-2017
BETI:   0.045
VWAP:   6124.21
x:   2,662
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101495
Rsq:   0.828074
Expected price:   5855.16
Actual price / expected price:   104.59%
BETI ATL price:   630.38
BETI ATH price:   37905.54
Expected date:   12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead:   13.63
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   5874.50
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29   

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October 31, 2017, 01:29:09 PM
 #531


BETI:   0.045
   

It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher?
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October 31, 2017, 02:28:05 PM
 #532


BETI:   0.045
   

It's happening. Have we ever broken 0, held and not continued higher?


yes, check it out:




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October 31, 2017, 03:56:41 PM
 #533

Date:   30-Oct-2017
BETI:   0.045
VWAP:   6124.21
x:   2,662
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101495
Rsq:   0.828074
Expected price:   5855.16
Actual price / expected price:   104.59%
BETI ATL price:   630.38
BETI ATH price:   37905.54
Expected date:   12-Nov-2017
# of days ahead:   13.63
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   5874.50
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329698500847897++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101494714460353+%29   

According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?

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October 31, 2017, 04:02:56 PM
 #534


   

According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?

No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k.

Edit - That sounded negative Smiley. For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.
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October 31, 2017, 04:20:30 PM
 #535


   

According to BETI, the ATH of $38k is expected for the 12 November ?
Am I understanding well all the data ?

No - the current price would have been expected on 12 November. We are ~13 days ahead of the trend. IF the index was at it's previous ATH, the price would be ~$38k.

Edit - That sounded negative Smiley. For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Thanks !

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November 01, 2017, 11:23:16 AM
 #536

Date:   31-Oct-2017
BETI:   0.067
VWAP:   6284.18
x:   2,663
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101545
Rsq:   0.828239
Expected price:   5875.10
Actual price / expected price:   106.96%
BETI ATL price:   632.53
BETI ATH price:   38034.57
Expected date:   20-Nov-2017
# of days ahead:   20.42
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   5894.50
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329704205661438++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101545442964722+%29   

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November 01, 2017, 12:33:16 PM
 #537

Am I understanding well all the data ?

The thing to understand is not to sell your BTC unless BETI exceeds 1.5  Roll Eyes

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November 02, 2017, 01:39:16 AM
 #538

Date:   1-Nov-2017
BETI:   0.105
VWAP:   6546.62
x:   2,664
a:   0.003297
b:   -0.101624
Rsq:   0.828407
Expected price:   5895.43
Actual price / expected price:   111.05%
BETI ATL price:   634.71
BETI ATH price:   38166.18
Expected date:   2-Dec-2017
# of days ahead:   31.78
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   5914.90
   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00329713078481484++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.101624371776265+%29   

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November 02, 2017, 01:42:42 AM
 #539



Edit - That sounded negative Smiley. For some hopium, each time the trend has surpassed 0, it hit an ATH fairly quickly.

Yes, enjoy while it lasts. Positive BETI is very rare in the 7 year history of trading

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November 02, 2017, 02:03:11 AM
 #540

Thanks for this quite impressive. I have been expecting the top to occur when 3 day RSI reaches 90; BETI over 1.0 close to 1.5 may be more accurate.

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