US Presidential Election 2020

[tyz]

punters continue to favor biden---latest chances to win per betfair:

-trump 40%
-biden 54%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

Odds are changing very fast. Perhaps it is time to make a bet in favor of Biden, before it is too late. I should have done this at least one month ago, when the bookies were favoring Trump to win the re-election. BTW, I checked the link and I was surprised that they have given 1% chance for Hillary to win the POTUS 2020 elections. Now it is : Biden - 55%, Trump - 40%, Hillary - 1%.

Would make sense if you fully trust the polls. I found an interesting article on Oddsshark (btw a really great site if you do betting regularly) which summarizes the presidential race 2016. Relying on the odds, it was always a good idea to bet on Clinton. But we know what the final result was.

[FIFA worldcup]

Yesterdays rally in Tulsa didn't help Trump, Bidens odds have even gone further down to around 1.80 now. The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.

Initially i thought that these US elections may be postponed due to covid-19, but now it seems that i was wrong. Seeing the yesterday rally, it seems the election will be held on time.
Also It's too conclude that trump odds are going down, there is still few months left in the election and anything can change.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Yesterdays rally in Tulsa didn't help Trump, Bidens odds have even gone further down to around 1.80 now. The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.

Initially i thought that these US elections may be postponed due to covid-19, but now it seems that i was wrong. Seeing the yesterday rally, it seems the election will be held on time.
Also It's too conclude that trump odds are going down, there is still few months left in the election and anything can change.

ROFL. They are not going to postpone the elections. Most of the businesses are open in the United States and despite this, the number of new cases remain very low (at least compared to the peak they had in April). If there is no large and sudden spike in the next few months, the elections will go ahead as planned. However, as I had mentioned earlier, the turnout is going to be at record low levels, even with all the absentee ballots and early voting.

[tyKiwanuka]

The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.

Looks like Trump actually got outmaneuvered by K-pop fans and TikTok users, which is kind of hilarious Seemingly, they bought those "a million tickets", but never (intended to) show up. I do feel a bit bad for Trump (not sure why), but it's funny nonetheless.

[STT]

Odds are changing very fast. Perhaps it is time to make a bet in favor of Biden, before it is too late. I should have done this at least one month ago, when the bookies were favoring Trump to win the re-election.

If it were possible to jump on the hype train and bet Biden only to then later sell that bet and cashout long before the result and it can bounce back to what is likely going to be a close cut election anyhow.   That would be ideal because people are going to over speculate on this as if Biden is a knight in shining armour when he is really in frequent danger himself of lampooning his own campaign.   Its hard to believe anyone could make as many oppsies as Trump manages daily but Biden should give him a run for his money in that regard before November.
   In terms of memes and comedy politics we are living in a golden age not likely repeated for generations, Iam going to be sad when it reverts to utter boredom and plain gravity stops the nonsense fiscal policies etc.

[figmentofmyass]

If it were possible to jump on the hype train and bet Biden only to then later sell that bet and cashout long before the result and it can bounce back to what is likely going to be a close cut election anyhow.   That would be ideal because people are going to over speculate on this as if Biden is a knight in shining armour when he is really in frequent danger himself of lampooning his own campaign.

that's the idea, yes. people are getting too confident in biden. ideally we will reach december 2018/january 2019 levels of anti-trump sentiment again. that'll be the time to take the trump trade IMO:

if trump plunges to 3-3.33 in the short term i'm gonna lay a bet on him as a medium term trade, with the intention of betting on biden when punter sentiment reverses again.

with so many huge variables heading into this, i'd rather just bet against confident punters on both sides. nobody should be that confident. this is a coin flip.

Looks like Trump actually got outmaneuvered by K-pop fans and TikTok users, which is kind of hilarious Seemingly, they bought those "a million tickets", but never (intended to) show up. I do feel a bit bad for Trump (not sure why), but it's funny nonetheless.

that is fucking hilarious! well executed trolling!

[coinfinger]

I would say betting on Trump right now could be the smart money. Now I am not saying Trump will win, and I really really really hope he loses, I rather see an empty bucket be the president than Trump. However, let's remember 4 years ago when initially he had 1% chance to be Republican nominee, from there to presidency he won everything.

So, I do not trust any polls when it is about Trump, if it was someone else, if it was some senate race, if it was something related to congress I would trust polls and what they say about the republican versus democrat candidates, I would even trust polls if it is about the presidential election but between another republican versus any democrat. However this dude beat the whole odds and became president, so I can't really ever be sure about him losing no matter how much the gap grows.

[Juggy777]

I would say betting on Trump right now could be the smart money. Now I am not saying Trump will win, and I really really really hope he loses, I rather see an empty bucket be the president than Trump. However, let's remember 4 years ago when initially he had 1% chance to be Republican nominee, from there to presidency he won everything.

So, I do not trust any polls when it is about Trump, if it was someone else, if it was some senate race, if it was something related to congress I would trust polls and what they say about the republican versus democrat candidates, I would even trust polls if it is about the presidential election but between another republican versus any democrat. However this dude beat the whole odds and became president, so I can't really ever be sure about him losing no matter how much the gap grows.

@coinfinger that’s a smart move as I too feel that Trump will win, once he realises that he needs to stop coming out in the media and shift the limelight on Biden. It’s pertinent to note that Biden has done nothing spectacular to take the lead, and he’s locked himself away and he’s only earning this lead because of Trumps errors. However once Biden is forced to come out on the stage he’ll loose the lead, by making mistakes especially like the one where he said black people are not black if they vote for Trump.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/06/21/trump-rally-sees-joe-bidens-presidental-odds-improve-presidential-election-betting-update/#15cbaa687da8

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/28/heres-why-black-americans-were-mad-bidens-comment-even-if-theyd-say-same-thing-themselves/

[leea-1334]

I do not think turnouts at rallies can be used to measure support. You have to remember that only Trump supporters do not fear the coronavirus, whereas it is pretty clear the ones who understood it the most were Biden supporters.

So I am sure they are not worried. Polls show anything they want too, they know better in their own camps I am sure.

[yazher]

I do not think turnouts at rallies can be used to measure support. You have to remember that only Trump supporters do not fear the coronavirus, whereas it is pretty clear the ones who understood it the most were Biden supporters.

So I am sure they are not worried. Polls show anything they want too, they know better in their own camps I am sure.

I'm pretty sure this election will bring another devastating result again since we can't really tell now what the majority of the US citizens. That rally will not really give any hope to the people rather it gives them a risk to be affected with this mysterious virus. I called them mysterious now because I have never seen such a thing or read from the past history of the pandemic. where I have seen someplace who are badly affected by it and still manage to make their life as normal as they used to be.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.

Looks like Trump actually got outmaneuvered by K-pop fans and TikTok users, which is kind of hilarious Seemingly, they bought those "a million tickets", but never (intended to) show up. I do feel a bit bad for Trump (not sure why), but it's funny nonetheless.

I am not sure whether this is the right strategy. If this repeats, then Trump may increase the ticket price, and the liberals may end up sponsoring his presidential election campaign. What they did in Tulsa is OK, and it will act for shock value. But I would not recommend repeating this, especially when Trump is unlikely to mobilize his support base, due to the pandemic and party as a result of his low approval ratings.

[figmentofmyass]

i thought these were solid reads on the political climate:

Yet even if this week hasn’t done so much material damage to Trump’s prospects, it has badly hurt his image. The pictures of the rows of empty seats in Tulsa will linger. The image of Trump strolling off Marine One disheveled and doleful is much worse than the clip of him teetering down a ramp at West Point—the one he spent nearly 15 minutes in Tulsa trying to explain away. Once a candidate makes an unflattering impression on voters, the label—from John Kerry’s floppiness to George H. W. Bush’s wimp factor—becomes difficult to shake. How could a man so attentive to the power of appearance get so sloppy? Trump understands this dynamic as well as anyone: Once you look like a loser, there’s a danger voters will treat you like one.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/trump-looks-like-loser/613363/

More signs emerge that Trump’s base may be eroding

Among white Americans without a four-year college degree, views of Trump have continued a downward trend. The proportion who hold favorable views of the president decreased to 47% from 54% in April and 66% in March.

Currently, 37% of white Catholics hold favorable views of Trump, a significant drop from 49% across 2019, and a substantial downward trend from a high of 60% in March and 48% in April.

As Jackson put it, Trump’s slippage among both non-college whites and white Catholics alike “would be concerning to me as a Republican operative.”

Note also that the New York Times just reported that Trump’s own advisers are very worried about his standing even in Midwestern states that Trump won handily, such as Ohio and Iowa. That also hints at potentially real base erosion.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/04/more-signs-emerge-that-trumps-base-is-eroding/

the one thing on trump's side is time. he is looking very weak right now, but the news cycle is such that---barring another coronavirus meltdown---his image and the momentum behind his campaign will probably be strongly recovering in the fall.

that's why trump looks a lot more interesting at 2.7 than biden does at 1.7.

[tyKiwanuka]

The pictures of the rows of empty seats in Tulsa will linger. The image of Trump strolling off Marine One disheveled and doleful (...)

I was VERY surprised when I saw the footage to say the least. He looked like a beaten man, tired and worn out. I think I rarely saw a politcian with his tie just hanging around his neck and walking like a zombie. This is very un-Trump-ish, who normally doesn't show any signs of weakness (voluntarily) and always has good fighting spirit. I can only imagine this being political calculation to show a more human picture of him. No matter how tired and disappointed you are here, you can always walk 100m properly and put your tie in place beforehand

he is looking very weak right now,

Yep. I wonder how much lower/weaker he can get, nothing seems to go his way right now. I guess it could get even worse - lets see what happens next^^ - but as you say, at some point in the next weeks/months, things will change for the better for Trump and he will get some momentum again. The difficulty lies in finding that good entry point to open a trade; he could go to 3.0, 3.5 or 4.0 before there is a turnaround.

[figmentofmyass]

The pictures of the rows of empty seats in Tulsa will linger. The image of Trump strolling off Marine One disheveled and doleful (...)

I was VERY surprised when I saw the footage to say the least. He looked like a beaten man, tired and worn out. I think I rarely saw a politcian with his tie just hanging around his neck and walking like a zombie. This is very un-Trump-ish, who normally doesn't show any signs of weakness (voluntarily) and always has good fighting spirit. I can only imagine this being political calculation to show a more human picture of him.

that's an interesting take, i hadn't considered that. i too was very taken aback by those pictures. i've never once seen trump look so defeated before.

he is looking very weak right now,

Yep. I wonder how much lower/weaker he can get, nothing seems to go his way right now. I guess it could get even worse - lets see what happens next^^ - but as you say, at some point in the next weeks/months, things will change for the better for Trump and he will get some momentum again. The difficulty lies in finding that good entry point to open a trade; he could go to 3.0, 3.5 or 4.0 before there is a turnaround.

indeed! 2.7 is still not that interesting to me. 3.0 is justifiable, and at 3.33-4.0 i am racing to get bets in. not so much because i have a strong opinion about who will win, but as a bet against punters taking biden with terrible odds.

it's sort of like when bitcoin price goes parabolic---it's impossible to predict the top, but you know there will be lots of blood once the top is in.

[justdimin]

I would say Biden will not lose the vote himself if he does something, he can do all the mistakes he wants, the ball is on Trumps court.

Right now, Trump will win as long as he keeps his voters and his voters go out to vote, democrats are known to not go out to vote far more than republicans. The overall vote count could be higher for Hillary but the places she lost that caused her the presidency is the places where democrats are registered or even there basically but didn't voted for her.

So right now, we know that democrats in some states will probably not go out to vote, what will matter is will republicans? If republicans once again all show up together they will win Trump the election but if Trump is not getting their votes that means he will lose. The thing is Biden is not doing well anyway, he is already losing votes, however Trump does it faster.

[bbc.reporter]

Yesterdays rally in Tulsa didn't help Trump, Bidens odds have even gone further down to around 1.80 now. The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.


Source: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/06/trump-s-tulsa-rally-empty-seats-outdoor-speeches-cancelled-after-poor-turnout.html

While I think it's understandable that a lot of seats remained empty - who wants to be indoors with 19k other people during these times - I am surprised by the cancellation of the outdoor speech due to underwhelming crowd, since being in a crowd outdoors is not that risky and you can distance yourself better. Republicans say it was due to protestors, fake news etc., but the betting markets reacted nonetheless.

I didn't watch it all yet, just some parts, but Trump said, that he asked for the Corona testing to be slowed down, to not have that many cases. Now a lot of countries have their own methods to make the numbers look good/better - China is only counting symptomatic cases - which is just part of politics I guess, but publicly stating such things, is just stupid

Trump's online stream and tv viewers reached 11 million according to Neilsen ratings, however. The Democrats should not commit a similar mistake of overconfidence that they have done on 2016 with Hillary.

I speculate that the silent majority and some moderate democrats might vote for Trump because they do not want violence, book burning and the destruction of their culture. This is an issue many Democrats are ignoring and some are supporting.

This speech was funny hehehe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdiqyKm0UwU

[iTradeChips]

My friend asked me if Bitcoin is left leaning or right leaning, I cannot answer that question since I am seeing a lot of non-Trump supporters out here on this thread - not sure it's just an observation. So I will ask your opinion on this question. Is cryptocurrency left leaning or right leaning? I have the assumption that it is left leaning because of many anti-Trump supporting this but also right leaning because this is decentralization, which is not really what the left wants. Enlighten my friend please. Thank you.

[Vishnu.Reang]

My friend asked me if Bitcoin is left leaning or right leaning, I cannot answer that question since I am seeing a lot of non-Trump supporters out here on this thread - not sure it's just an observation. So I will ask your opinion on this question. Is cryptocurrency left leaning or right leaning? I have the assumption that it is left leaning because of many anti-Trump supporting this but also right leaning because this is decentralization, which is not really what the left wants. Enlighten my friend please. Thank you.

Bitcoin is neither left-leaning nor right-leaning. I would say that Bitcoin is rather Libertarian. So you can't group Bitcoin broadly with either of the two camps. The inventor of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto remains anonymous till date. But it is widely known that he is a libertarian. Also, among both Democrats and Republicans, you can find politicians who are in favor, and against Bitcoin.

[Captain Corporate]

 It is both left leaning but also right leaning as well. It is qutie republican in the sense that you do not work at all, you just put your money into money and make money, sounds incredibly absurd right? Look at stock market, tens of trillions of dollars worth stock market is consisting of "put money and your money will make money" idea. So bitcoin trading, bitcoin investments, bitcoin futures, all of these are highly republican stuff that any wall street banking guy would love to get their hands on and bribe politicians to let it happen.

 It is also quite left leaning as well only because we are talking about a currency that was created to go against the wall streets and stock markets and the whole idea of decentralization came in just because governments do not mind killing the economy for the poor people just to save the people that bribe them. Of course its not like that right now because wall street got into bitcoin world but the system was created to be against them yet they found a way to make it work for them and profit them as well.

 So we can summarize it by saying the creation of it was quite left but it started to be a bit more right with time.

[figmentofmyass]

trump 37%
biden 58%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

we're getting there.....

My friend asked me if Bitcoin is left leaning or right leaning, I cannot answer that question since I am seeing a lot of non-Trump supporters out here on this thread - not sure it's just an observation.

trump in many ways is not a conservative, so you can't view opposition to him as strictly left vs right. lots of right leaning people think he doesn't serve conservative principles, and that he isn't a person of character.

he has also expressed disdain for bitcoin/cryptocurrency---apparently he even wanted to “go after bitcoin” in 2018, so that should have some effect on the views of bitcoin users. https://decrypt.co/32711/trump-first-wanted-to-go-after-bitcoin-in-2018-says-john-bolton

So I will ask your opinion on this question. Is cryptocurrency left leaning or right leaning?

fundamentally, neither.

bitcoin as an investment tends to appeal more to fiscal conservative types because it's so hard/scarce---the same reason there is overlap between gold bugs and right wing philosophies.

however, at its core bitcoin is still just another form of money. most left leaning philosophies don't seek to abolish money itself, and those that do tend to realize the necessity of money in the shorter term. the days where bitcoin users were mostly right leaning libertarians ended many years ago.

bitcoin also isn't the only cryptocurrency---most altcoins have much softer monetary policies. there are even ones that are more inflationary than major fiat currencies, so even the keynesians can take their pick of the lot.

I have the assumption that it is left leaning because of many anti-Trump supporting this but also right leaning because this is decentralization, which is not really what the left wants. Enlighten my friend please. Thank you.

decentralization =/= left or right. this is why libertarians and anarchists can't generally be defined as either. there are right libertarians and there are left libertarians.