US Presidential Election 2020

[babygun]

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

Thanks for the update. Betting on Biden seems a good bet at the moment. But I also think betting at least some money on Trump could be a good hedge for the next election. I am waiting for better odds to get a good payout. Who knows how the campaign will end, it's probably just another coin toss like with Hillary.

The difference with Hillary was that she was in front almost all the time. She had odds of winning of around 1.4 and still she lost.
Who will win this year, will probably depend heavily on how the Corona crisis evolves and right now it is not in Trump's favour. I am betting on Biden but I keep it low stake.

[figmentofmyass]

Who knows how the campaign will end, it's probably just another coin toss like with Hillary.

biden is more electable than hillary was. people still underestimate how hated she was, and not only among republicans. the democrats are much better positioned with a political dud like biden than her.  

but yeah, i still think it's not far from a coin flip, which is why these are decent odds to bet trump. i'm still hoping for one more dip, but waiting for 3.33+ might turn out to be greedy.

If you are looking for a hedge/trade I would start with Trump as per the above. But if Dr. Fauci is correct with his prognosis, I might be the one to be completely wrong; thats the (hard) fun with betting

The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says

that's the last thing trump needs, indeed! if reopenings get rolled back and especially if states go into full lockdown again, his eternal coronavirus optimism will backfire and the markets will take a big shit. if trump can't even pump the stock market, then what the hell is he good for?

[STT]

Biden is a good candidate

Hilary had a movement behind her, she was unique in their focus to elect and would have been a ground breaking candidate to successfully elect yet she failed.   Biden is quite different and just a representative of 'more of the same', I'd love to say he represents a great push towards a particular vision but my take is he hopes to cruise in on a victory based largely on his opponents weaknesses.    We're back to 2016 in how Trump appears totally diabolical and inappropriate to some as a candidate and as a representative diplomatically for USA in the world but as a unique character that will hold up concepts and laws some people want to be held in government he is still their man and they are loyal to him.   Without trying to criticise either side or their policies, who has the more loyalty and political fervor in their supporters.
   Who represents the greatest difference to the norm, somehow its probably still going to be Trump.   Biden for example says he will revert tax cuts that were made, I'm not saying he is wrong but he is a reversion to the norm more then doing new things or a bold new vision or whatever.  Polls are always an approximation, people often dislike my obsession with statistics and charts and all kinds of projections but I'll always agree its just a speculation or guess of future possibilities and polls are very much in that category.   People will state out loud who they will vote for but they also check which candidate will reduce their pay check and then vote that way, I dont blame them its just the way it is.

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate that this might be a political move by the people behind the Trump administration. They will make a deal and make her talk about the top Democrats who might have used Jeffrey Epstein's services hehehe.

Ghislaine is also a supporter of Hillary and Democrats where she has made a donation.

This might be the scandal of the year and destroy Biden's campaign.



While Ghislaine Maxwell’s arrest Thursday in relation to her confidant Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes answered some questions about her life – revealing, for example, that she hid at a sprawling, million-dollar New Hampshire estate, where she was picked up in a morning raid – still more questions arose about what’s next for the mysterious British socialite.

As she sits in custody, at the top of many minds was whether Maxwell – long accused of grooming underage victims for Epstein – will cooperate with prosecutors.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/03/what-next-for-ghislaine-maxwell-will-she-cooperate-with-prosecutors

[barbara44]

I would never ever bet against Trump on any election. Dude shouldn't even be the president right now, he has absolutely no qualifications that makes him a good president but he gave a great lesson to American public by becoming president, that you can be anything you want as long as you are willing to get dirty and have powerful connections.

Plus, we now know that America is not really ruled by the president but more like senate, if the senate doesn't want president do to something they can stop him, who can stop the senate? Not really much.

There was even impeachment where congress found Trump guilty, that is their job to see if he is really guilty or not and when the impeachment was on senate it was already decided that he was guilty. What happened? Senate decided not to do anything about it and not give him a punishment. I hate trump as much as the next guy but I wouldn't put money on him losing between all of this horrible things he is capable of doing.

[bitbunnny]

I would never ever bet against Trump on any election. Dude shouldn't even be the president right now, he has absolutely no qualifications that makes him a good president but he gave a great lesson to American public by becoming president, that you can be anything you want as long as you are willing to get dirty and have powerful connections.

Plus, we now know that America is not really ruled by the president but more like senate, if the senate doesn't want president do to something they can stop him, who can stop the senate? Not really much.

There was even impeachment where congress found Trump guilty, that is their job to see if he is really guilty or not and when the impeachment was on senate it was already decided that he was guilty. What happened? Senate decided not to do anything about it and not give him a punishment. I hate trump as much as the next guy but I wouldn't put money on him losing between all of this horrible things he is capable of doing.

You have the point. To bet against Trump on elections isn't very wise thing to do. At first I also didn't expect that he might be a president and that man like he can rule anything and not country like America. On the second thought he's probably the exact choice if average American and how they think and behave so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins again.
He survived impeachment attempt, he doesn't care about Congress or Senate, it seems that he can do whatever he wants. I wouldn't bet my money against him.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The difference with Hillary was that she was in front almost all the time. She had odds of winning of around 1.4 and still she lost.
Who will win this year, will probably depend heavily on how the Corona crisis evolves and right now it is not in Trump's favour. I am betting on Biden but I keep it low stake.

I would rather say that Biden is in a much stronger position right now, compared to Hillary four years back. Between 2016 and 2020, political preferences across the United States have changed, and more so in some of the crucial swing states such as Arizona, rust belt states, Virginia, North Carolina.etc. And the bad news for Trump is that none of these changes are beneficial for him.

[l3pox]

The difference with Hillary was that she was in front almost all the time. She had odds of winning of around 1.4 and still she lost.
Who will win this year, will probably depend heavily on how the Corona crisis evolves and right now it is not in Trump's favour. I am betting on Biden but I keep it low stake.

I would rather say that Biden is in a much stronger position right now, compared to Hillary four years back. Between 2016 and 2020, political preferences across the United States have changed, and more so in some of the crucial swing states such as Arizona, rust belt states, Virginia, North Carolina.etc. And the bad news for Trump is that none of these changes are beneficial for him.

any information on how's Trump propaganda on social media lately?
last election with Cambridge Analytica and all the facebook situation he had a good boost because of it.

good that slowly the people start to wake up.

[bitbollo]

I would never ever bet against Trump on any election. Dude shouldn't even be the president right now, he has absolutely no qualifications that makes him a good president but he gave a great lesson to American public by becoming president, that you can be anything you want as long as you are willing to get dirty and have powerful connections.

Plus, we now know that America is not really ruled by the president but more like senate, if the senate doesn't want president do to something they can stop him, who can stop the senate? Not really much.

There was even impeachment where congress found Trump guilty, that is their job to see if he is really guilty or not and when the impeachment was on senate it was already decided that he was guilty. What happened? Senate decided not to do anything about it and not give him a punishment. I hate trump as much as the next guy but I wouldn't put money on him losing between all of this horrible things he is capable of doing.

You have the point. To bet against Trump on elections isn't very wise thing to do. At first I also didn't expect that he might be a president and that man like he can rule anything and not country like America. On the second thought he's probably the exact choice if average American and how they think and behave so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins again.
He survived impeachment attempt, he doesn't care about Congress or Senate, it seems that he can do whatever he wants. I wouldn't bet my money against him.

Probably yes he can "survive" also this time.
But this time it's very different, and it can worth bet against him if there are good odds.
The information that we are seeing in EU show a contradictory man.
Due COVID19 management he has loss a lot of "power" and trust. He isn't anymore strong enough to fight against the whole situation.

I mean there is a strong second wave of infections. There is not propaganda that can help to hide a disaster like this, numbers are speaking by itself, and calling "china virus" doesn't appear the best move ...

[Captain Corporate]

 What really matters for american public and even republicans that they like to look tough. They want to be loved but also feared, they have this weird american way of thinking that they should be the biggest nation in all of the world and everyone should know them and love them and fear them while they are free to not know any other nation, could be ignorant about them, and they have a right to do that as americans because they live in the best nation in the world.

 When you look at Trump and how he was treated all over the world, you see that he was mocked by not by only the people in their own country, but in other nations as well, he was basically a laughing stock to everyone and that means they are not feared anymore at all. Which means even republicans have a fundemental and a selfish reason to not like him as well.

 I can see this year going to Biden very easily, but I am still not %100 sure.

[wozzek23]

Betting against Trump could be a bad idea however we have to realize there is a big big difference between today and 2016 plus there is a big difference between electing senator and electing president. Now the thing with Trump is that, he was basically an unknown before 2016, dude wasn't really given any chance and everyone looked at him like it was a joke run and not a serious one, even he is probably shocked that he won it, however because people didn't cared and everyone guaranteed a Hillary win, he took that as an advantage and won.

Now we have Trump as the president for the past 4 years and people are actually scared of having 4 more years of him. I can't say if you should bet on Biden but dude has a clean record, he was VP and honestly that is the only other option available that is not Trump.

[adamistraybar]

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

[STT]

Is the electoral college that powerful, I get that the constituents matter more then most people can perceive.   It wont change, its there to support the union and I guess to lead away from just too much influence in cities over the large expanse and epic extent of the whole country.   I'm just surprised that Trump can win on this point and somehow it was not underlined to this extent in previous contests and candidates.   I cant remember anyone who has been as divisive as Trump has become.


Regarding Biden, I think the dude is quite vanilla both as a positive and negative trait (if anything his worst element would be to resemble trump in any headline or 'press conference insults' etc.); I expect him to lose without definition and its not a bet I really like as its too favoured but with enough work and definition perhaps that can change over the next few months and its not too late.   So the most important thing could be the VP in defining his judgement and policy to the average voter rather then people who will vote democrat no matter what.    McCain failed with a female VP and in the end I dont believe he made the correct choice really, it didnt help him imo.    Rice as a former cabinet member and with significant experience is far more likely to work out and be respected and add into the ticket as an asset.   Some people were definitely just voting for Hilary because she was a women which imo is silly but I understand the sentiment of wanting proportional representation, I do believe that amount of votes could be of some help and needed to win this race.   I also hope Biden is genuinely willing to take advice and direction from a VP.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/steve-chapman/ct-column-susan-rice-iraq-war-chapman-20200702-bto32c5k6nhx3can3pxf5jgbau-story.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/05/susan-rice-biden-veep-349109

[bbc.reporter]

I would never ever bet against Trump on any election. Dude shouldn't even be the president right now, he has absolutely no qualifications that makes him a good president but he gave a great lesson to American public by becoming president, that you can be anything you want as long as you are willing to get dirty and have powerful connections.

Plus, we now know that America is not really ruled by the president but more like senate, if the senate doesn't want president do to something they can stop him, who can stop the senate? Not really much.

There was even impeachment where congress found Trump guilty, that is their job to see if he is really guilty or not and when the impeachment was on senate it was already decided that he was guilty. What happened? Senate decided not to do anything about it and not give him a punishment. I hate trump as much as the next guy but I wouldn't put money on him losing between all of this horrible things he is capable of doing.

It appears that you are not familiar with government and the division of power. All government power was never on the president. All power is divided to the executive, legislative and the judiciary branches. A president is not a dictator.

In any case, the official campaign has not begun. The Democrats should be careful that Biden does not climax early hehehehe. This might give Trump time to improve on the polls and win again.

@STT. The electoral college is not a group of random people. It is an electoral body established by the constitution.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College

[Daniel91]

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

When I talk to my friends in America, they also say that ordinary voters are tired of traditional politicians and no longer trust them.
Trump won the last presidential election because he did not run as a traditional politician but as someone who wants to change politics and return power to the people.
Of course, we can say that Trump has proven to be an incompetent politician and is responsible for a large number of people dying in America due to coronavirus, and he seems to show great ignorance and arrogance in many other things and decisions but in the end the only thing that matters is how the average American perceives Trump.
Although polls show that Biden has a big advantage, the unreliability of the polls has already been shown, so I wouldn't trust them much.
People will decide, not polls 

[Vishnu.Reang]

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

Once again, you guys are assuming that what happened in 2016 would repeat in 2020. That is not going to happen, and we saw that during the 2018 senate elections. Even states which were once considered as Republican strongholds, such as Arizona ended up electing Democrat senators. The reading on the wall is loud and clear. Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, and it worked to his advantage. But now people have realized that he is as bad as anyone out there.

[tyKiwanuka]

Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, (...)

I would say that he was "relatively unknown" as a politician, but in general as an individual he was widely known (?). He was no newbie on the TV screens of US citizens and I knew him well before as well; being someone not living in US

He is definitely not as strong as he was in 2016 and does not have this newcomer effect anymore. However not everything he does/did is bad or he wouldn't had ok-ish approval ratings for a long time and don't forget he was odds favourite to win the election not long ago. If Corona never happened, he probably would still be, but ever since this virus showed up in USA, he handled the situation poorly imo and not like you want your political leader to handle it (in the eyes of the majority).

He has probably done good in home affairs up until Corona, but burned quite some bridges in foreign affairs and there are only few countries, that cheer for him to remain president (Putin would be happy I guess). But he never made a secret about his intentions (America first, MAGA) and from what I can judge, at least in that department he wasn't doing too bad and his populist decisions were liked by those who want to like them or like them whatever it is. If this is good longterm for the US is another story then.

Being not as strong as in 2016 doesn't necessarily imply that he will lose this election, because he has another opponent this year (whom I still consider weaker than Hillary all things considered).

[yazher]

Once again, you guys are assuming that what happened in 2016 would repeat in 2020. That is not going to happen, and we saw that during the 2018 senate elections. Even states which were once considered as Republican strongholds, such as Arizona ended up electing Democrat senators. The reading on the wall is loud and clear. Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, and it worked to his advantage. But now people have realized that he is as bad as anyone out there.

I agree with this statement because of what I am seeing in today's news in the United States. There are lots of problems with Trump's speech and looks like it all contradicts his statements like for example the solution to the pandemic which crippled most of the business in the US. He only said that the problem is soon to be solved but the problem is multiplying almost every day.

[FontSeli]

I will happily admit not being an expert when it comes to US politics nor am I totally understanding all these pre-elections, delegates etc. It's hard to get the exact modus operandi for someone not living in the US - maybe even for people that actually live there, not sure - and tbh I didn't dive too deep into it (shame on me). 

I'm not an expert either. Moreover, I do not live in the USA. But personally, I am sure that the majority of citizens will vote for Trump. People like his actions to increase jobs, which is facilitated by the return of many industries from China, limiting migration and other steps in this area. It would be good if he had a serious competitor. So there will be more winnings from betting on Trump.

[figmentofmyass]

When I talk to my friends in America, they also say that ordinary voters are tired of traditional politicians and no longer trust them.
Trump won the last presidential election because he did not run as a traditional politician but as someone who wants to change politics and return power to the people.

that's one of the reasons trump is weaker this time around. he can't rely on "drain the swamp" rhetoric anymore. he's an incumbent. he is the swamp.

Being not as strong as in 2016 doesn't necessarily imply that he will lose this election, because he has another opponent this year (whom I still consider weaker than Hillary all things considered).

weaker perhaps as an overall politician, but in the context of a presidential election i disagree. people are still in denial about how hated hillary is/was. i hated her, and i'm no republican. i don't think the USA was nearly ready to elect a woman president either.

a centrist old white guy (biden) with executive experience will appeal to republican moderates and senior citizens who are tired of trump. meanwhile, the dems can throw the identity politics crowd a bone by signing on a black woman VP like kamala harris.

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.