US Presidential Election 2020

[Cnut237]

I don't think there's much that Biden needs to do now. He is starting to look very very likely to win the race, just as the 'non-Trump' candidate. Trump's woeful mismanagement of the pandemic is obviously a huge contributor to this. People deserve a competent leader, and we are really seeing a concerted effort even amongst some republicans to get Trump out. It's not just support for Republican candidates who oppose Trump, there is even gathering momentum to actually vote Democrat. There is a willingness to accept defeat in 2020 if it means ousting Trump and healing some of the damage he's done to the party, in the hope's of getting back into power with a 'normal' candidate in 2024.

[Vishnu.Reang]

China has no ethical claim to South China Sea or to Indian territories. Whether its Biden or Trump, they can neglect these Chinese noises only at their own peril.

Trump is definitely not going to ignore the threat from China. He has followed up his words with real action. This may get him support from various South and Southeast Asian communities, such as the Indians, Filipinos and the Japanese. But we don't know much about Biden. He was the 47th Vice President of the United States, and he served under one of the weakest presidents (Barack Obama). Obama's foreign policy was a failure, at least with regards to China.

[Cnut237]

we don't know much about Biden.

All that anyone needs to know is that he's not Trump. As the effects of the mismanagement of Covid19 become more and more apparent, Trump's popularity wanes. Biden doesn't need to do anything to win, Trump is doing it for him.

Obama's foreign policy was a failure, at least with regards to China.

The unintentional effect of Trump's foreign policy is to weaken the US in the eyes of the world. In areas where the US led the world, they are now a weakness and a liability. The US is the world's strongest nation, and should be leading the fight against this pandemic. But the US is withdrawing from the WHO. The US is withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord. It's almost like a return to pre-WWII isolationism.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The unintentional effect of Trump's foreign policy is to weaken the US in the eyes of the world. In areas where the US led the world, they are now a weakness and a liability. The US is the world's strongest nation, and should be leading the fight against this pandemic. But the US is withdrawing from the WHO. The US is withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord. It's almost like a return to pre-WWII isolationism.

I can't completely agree with you. Obviously the US isn't doing that well in its fight against the COVID 19 epidemic, and Trump is responsible for most of it. At least during the initial days, he downplayed the pandemic and refused to take the precautions. The lockdown was only announced after a lot of lives were lost and millions got infected. But that has nothing to do with the foreign policy.

Now talking about the WHO, I believe that he took the right decision. The way WHO handled the pandemic was appalling. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus proved that he was the most incompetent individual to ever become the Director-General of the WHO. IMO, the WHO did more harm than good, with their stupid findings.

[Cnut237]

I can't completely agree with you. Obviously the US isn't doing that well in its fight against the COVID 19 epidemic, and Trump is responsible for most of it. At least during the initial days, he downplayed the pandemic and refused to take the precautions. The lockdown was only announced after a lot of lives were lost and millions got infected. But that has nothing to do with the foreign policy.

I agree that Trump's Covid-19 response has little to do with foreign policy, other than leaving the WHO and the public relations fallout of decisions such as that to buy the complete global supply of remdesivir.
But many of his other decisions point to America turning its back on the world and focusing inwards, which is not what is required in a global leader. For all his belligerent posturing, he is no interventionist throwing troops in everywhere and asserting an American presence. As another example, he pulled out of Syria.
For Trump, it's America First. A consequence of this is that it's 'rest of the world last', which means relinquishing that position as the global leader. The question is does this open the door for China?

[figmentofmyass]

I don't think there's much that Biden needs to do now. He is starting to look very very likely to win the race, just as the 'non-Trump' candidate.

this is when sentiment analysis starts getting interesting---when the outcome seems like a sure thing. makes me wanna bet on trump.

he's still only at 2.9 though. if biden is such a sure thing, trump should get well into the 3s, don't you think?!

beware the timing IMO. we are 3.5 months from the election now. if biden has all the momentum now, expect that pendulum to swing back. trump will regain the momentum at some point, and the closer to the election that happens, the better for him.

[Cnut237]

I don't think there's much that Biden needs to do now. He is starting to look very very likely to win the race, just as the 'non-Trump' candidate.

this is when sentiment analysis starts getting interesting---when the outcome seems like a sure thing. makes me wanna bet on trump.

he's still only at 2.9 though. if biden is such a sure thing, trump should get well into the 3s, don't you think?!

beware the timing IMO. we are 3.5 months from the election now. if biden has all the momentum now, expect that pendulum to swing back. trump will regain the momentum at some point, and the closer to the election that happens, the better for him.

These are all valid points, yes, particularly the one about momentum, which is indeed ever-shifting.

But I do still think Biden will win, in large part due to the Covid19 figures from the US. Lockdown was implemented quite halfheartedly and lifted way too early, with some truly shocking infection numbers as a result. The economic fallout is only just beginning, and I can't imagine that by November the situation will be better than it is now - even if we have a vaccine by that point.

I would not be at all surprised if Biden wins the election, but Trump refuses to acknowledge defeat and just tries to brazen it out by declaring certain aspects invalid or fraudulent or unlawful - postal votes being an obvious possibility.

Can anyone imagine Trump accepting that he's been beaten in a two horse race?

[STT]

South China Sea

They are probably going to need to rename the sea before China realises they dont own the entire area and every coast line on that sea.   Its already well established that China has no rights to take actions against others in international waters, its very possible they are the aggressor into territory not theirs.   Its one of the big reasons you might suppose the current situation with Dollar and USA as a super power does continue into decades forward because the world has to have some stability to counter rogue states.

It also explains to me why Biden wont win just because he isnt Trump, thats not nearly enough to have certainty of any win.   People will stick with the devil they know, despite Biden being the vice president previously and having some inroads.   I dont feel like its enough presently, the demographic makeup of voters matters alot to guess their direction and momentum.   In a country like India where the majority of the population is below the age of 30, they are substantially different and large changes might occur in that countries political determination but USA is stuck in the mud as it were, you can guess what will happen next by being very similar to the past results and the precedent is that the standing candidate is reelected.

[amishmanish]

I can't completely agree with you. Obviously the US isn't doing that well in its fight against the COVID 19 epidemic, and Trump is responsible for most of it. At least during the initial days, he downplayed the pandemic and refused to take the precautions. The lockdown was only announced after a lot of lives were lost and millions got infected. But that has nothing to do with the foreign policy.

I agree that Trump's Covid-19 response has little to do with foreign policy, other than leaving the WHO and the public relations fallout of decisions such as that to buy the complete global supply of remdesivir.
But many of his other decisions point to America turning its back on the world and focusing inwards, which is not what is required in a global leader. For all his belligerent posturing, he is no interventionist throwing troops in everywhere and asserting an American presence. As another example, he pulled out of Syria.
For Trump, it's America First. A consequence of this is that it's 'rest of the world last', which means relinquishing that position as the global leader. The question is does this open the door for China?

Trump is an indecent human being, an abomination. I wish there were more honorable conservatives to take his place. His viewpoint on the western allies feeding off of America is a very rudimentary, layman's viewpoint that resonates with a lot of the populace. The underlying explanations on how these "investments" safeguard the world for American trade, American corporations and allowing America to retain its position is much more difficult to understand than, "I give more money to NATO or WHO, I want money back". This indeed led to a few ruffled feathers and a re-organization of the world order seemed very much inline.

Fortuitously, the Chinese threat rose at almost the right time for US leadership to realize these blunders. Reacting to China has been high on Trump's agenda and he did not miss the chance to do so in the case of recent Chinese aggression at Indian border. China had been playing games for a long time at the SEA-Pacific ocean (Taking cue from @STT and not gonna call it South China Sea). The land based aggression at Indian border probably proved to be the tipping point. This is important because it seems the US leadership is not in the mood to let China become the new Russia (Remember Crimea!!).

The door has long been open for China. It remains to be seen what happens when China takes the crown of prime ideological aggressor from Russia. Meanwhile, China seems to be sending warning to the US Navy in the "South-East Asia-Pacific Ocean" or SEA-Pacific Ocean.

[bryant.coleman]

Can anyone imagine Trump accepting that he's been beaten in a two horse race?

Do you remember what happened in 2016? Back then no one expected Trump to win, but he managed to beat Hillary. The polls underestimated his support, especially in the rust-belt states. And this time, you are assuming that the COVID 19 pandemic is working to the advantage of Biden. I am not very sure about this. The Trump supporters are ideologically motivated and they will go out to vote no matter how worse the condition is. The same can't be said about Biden supporters. If the turnout is low, it is going to be advantageous for Trump.

[Daniel91]

Can anyone imagine Trump accepting that he's been beaten in a two horse race?

Do you remember what happened in 2016? Back then no one expected Trump to win, but he managed to beat Hillary. The polls underestimated his support, especially in the rust-belt states. And this time, you are assuming that the COVID 19 pandemic is working to the advantage of Biden. I am not very sure about this. The Trump supporters are ideologically motivated and they will go out to vote no matter how worse the condition is. The same can't be said about Biden supporters. If the turnout is low, it is going to be advantageous for Trump.

Current president always have advantage,  specially in the time of crisis.
Some supporters believe that God sent Trump to save America and they will be very motivated to vote for him again. 
Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

[jademaxsuy]

Can anyone imagine Trump accepting that he's been beaten in a two horse race?

Do you remember what happened in 2016? Back then no one expected Trump to win, but he managed to beat Hillary. The polls underestimated his support, especially in the rust-belt states. And this time, you are assuming that the COVID 19 pandemic is working to the advantage of Biden. I am not very sure about this. The Trump supporters are ideologically motivated and they will go out to vote no matter how worse the condition is. The same can't be said about Biden supporters. If the turnout is low, it is going to be advantageous for Trump.

Current president always have advantage,  specially in the time of crisis.
Some supporters believe that God sent Trump to save America and they will be very motivated to vote for him again. 
Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

Yes incumbent officials has the advantage over other candidates but this also depend on the performance of the current president. So far, trump has done so far and great for America and I think his supporters will still vote for him. Relatively there were many of them so Biden will be having a hard time for this. He should prepare a good platform during the campaign. This is one of the very basis that voters will going to elect a leader. A platform that will help the majority of the people  of the Amerika.

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate that there is a large group of people that is composed of people who want law and order, who want America free of China's opportunism in business and politics and who want American values upheld, only tell other people or the polls that they like Biden but who might really vote for Trump.

Also, some of the sportsbooks have removed the betting hehehe. They are afraid Trump will win hehehe.



House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico Magazine when asked about recent polls showing Biden performing well in key swing states, such as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in Slotkin’s state of Michigan.

Source https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506816-house-democrat-warns-about-inaccurate-polls-trump-voters-fundamentally



Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

Source https://www.theblaze.com/news/trump-win-2020-election-prediction-model

[Cnut237]

Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

It's true that polls
a) represent only a fraction of the electorate, which may quite easily be unrepresentative of the whole, and
b) represent only how people say they will vote, not how they will actually vote.

We can reasonably expect that if we have a candidate who is divisive, and who appeals to people's baser prejudices, and whose skills are largely those of a mob agitator or demagogue... then they may be a sizable proportion of people who will vote for him, but will not admit publicly they they will do so... in which case, yes, Trump's eventual share of the vote may be under-reported in polling.

But I still think Biden will win, and still think that Trump will refuse to accept it.

[fiulpro]

See :

When I first heard that Trump is running in the elections , I was laughing at him , about how a guy would care to even compete with such low values . But then I realized people of America did not really care ! How did the man win remains an unsolved mystery.
Make America great again ?
- opening concentration camps in the names of detention centres for the immigrants where kids are dying and being trafficked , at the same time women are harassed everyday.

There are a lot of things but I do think we cannot just decide like this , people do want something different. What we need is a person like Obama to run for the elections again .

Plus many celebs are saying how they will run for election this year , it's funny.  It's not a game that anyone can play .

Polls can be very misleading like in the last Presidential election.
I'm sure that Trump have good chance to win again despite polls.

It's true that polls
a) represent only a fraction of the electorate, which may quite easily be unrepresentative of the whole, and
b) represent only how people say they will vote, not how they will actually vote.

We can reasonably expect that if we have a candidate who is divisive, and who appeals to people's baser prejudices, and whose skills are largely those of a mob agitator or demagogue... then they may be a sizable proportion of people who will vote for him, but will not admit publicly they they will do so... in which case, yes, Trump's eventual share of the vote may be under-reported in polling.

But I still think Biden will win, and still think that Trump will refuse to accept it.

I totally agree with the fact that this represents a fraction and we cannot really count on it.

- I personally think we need a person who is able to connect with all th communities not just the white one's.
- Someone who can actually care about other people and is respectful.

[leea-1334]

China has no ethical claim to South China Sea or to Indian territories. Whether its Biden or Trump, they can neglect these Chinese noises only at their own peril.

Trump is definitely not going to ignore the threat from China. He has followed up his words with real action. This may get him support from various South and Southeast Asian communities, such as the Indians, Filipinos and the Japanese. But we don't know much about Biden. He was the 47th Vice President of the United States, and he served under one of the weakest presidents (Barack Obama). Obama's foreign policy was a failure, at least with regards to China.

China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up. Trump is not the solution to China however and the voters will soon see that.

[tyKiwanuka]

Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ?

I think we have entered phase 2 with this "plan" now As everyone might have heard, Trump is now advocating wearing masks etc. and he did his first Corona briefing since late April again. Now with the numbers getting possibly (artificially) lower in the upcoming weeks, he can brag about it. At the point HE started telling people how to handle things, the numbers have improved tremendously.

I would be curious to see, what would happen, if Trump did a complete 180. Like telling: I was wrong, this is no hoax, wear masks, do more local lockdowns, I should have taken this more seriously, I am sorry etc. Now this will never happen, but would still be interesting to witness the reactions to it and if it could help him for his ultimate goal of getting re-elected.

[STT]

China doesnt have a claim any more then USA has a right to stop people crossing the atlantic, the territorial waters of the chinese mainland only go so far and then its open waters for any ship.   If they intend to start a war or aggression similar to north korea then they will degrade their position in the world.   Really that would be the same whichever party in in control in USA.

Make America great again ?
- opening concentration camps in the names of detention centres for the immigrants

Doesn't seem to fit that definition, we're unlikely to predict the election outcome if just assuming a bias and a hope that 1 candidate especially will succeed over the other.   Its dangerous to misstate things when China might well operate concentration camps against certain ethnic groups and political dissidents.

I should have taken this more seriously,

Last quote I read in passing was Trump admits pandemic will get worse before it gets better.   Not sure if thats correct but it'll save lives to confront the spread and reduce it via any measures people are able to sensible about, the problem is it does requires some recognition across an entire community to be effective.

[Captain Corporate]

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote. About democrats? Obviously republicans made sure there were long lines everywhere so far in all congress and senate elections knowing that republicans would wait 12 hours to vote if they have to whereas democrats won't, so they did everything in their power, however that still doesn't change the fact that democrats do not like to vote as much as republicans do. If the number of democrats versus how many of them voted versus the number of republicans versus how much of them voted were ever calculated, we would have seen at least %20-30 difference there, almost all republicans vote whereas only certain amount of democrats vote.

 This is why Trump could win, whoever will vote for him, will definitely vote for him, Biden on the other hand, will have people who prefer him over Trump but not go out to vote.

[johhnyUA]

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.

I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)

This is why Trump could win, whoever will vote for him, will definitely vote for him, Biden on the other hand, will have people who prefer him over Trump but not go out to vote.

Also weird. American society is polarized to it's limits: There will be people which will vote ONLY for Trump or Biden. So question is how much first and second?