US Presidential Election 2020

[SirLancelot]

The only reason why I was laughing about Trump was the fact that he said he was thinking about it in 2012 as well and he wanted to go against Obama but he realized it wasn't his time and it was too obvious that Obama would be easily reelected, so he gave up in 2012 and I thought that was it, dude just learned his place and it was nowhere near political page and he would give up.

Dude came back in 2016 as well and on early days it looked like not a campaign but more like a joke thing, like what Kanye did for example where you do know the candidate, its not someone never heard of , but you find it just a joke. Dude won that election from 1% chance of being nominated by republicans to actually becoming president. So, there is 0% chance I would consider Trump wouldn't be president again, he has a chance 100% for sure, its not going to be as easy as people claim but I believe it could happen.

[STT]

he realized it wasn't his time and it was too obvious that Obama would be easily reelected, so he gave up in 2012

He was fighting mid term which most of the time is not going to happen.  Mitt Romney took a shot that was never likely to work out, not sure he's ever gained from it where as at least Kerry got some job later on hence I guess it was worth that fight for him.    Maybe he was advised, maybe Trump has some sense in his head or perhaps just the feedback at that time did not favour a run.    If somehow Trump has some good reckoning for these fights, better at the election then the actual job it'd be something to note.

China is a danger

This helps Trump and his general stance if anything because a common enemy will unite.   Its something external to his own mess to blame and if anything Trump is creating this fight.

[figmentofmyass]

House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

i posted about this a few weeks ago. i think pollsters have done a lot to repair their failings from 2016 re ignoring rural constituencies and swing state dynamics. the real problem is that trump voters are somewhat atypical compared to traditional republican voters. and it's difficult to know whether they will show up in numbers to the polls or not, or on the other hand, whether the growing contingent of anti-trump republicans/independents will sustain momentum.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

very interesting! i suspect that this election is a bit more unpredictable/higher variance than most elections, because 1. trump makes it inherently unpredictable as i mentioned above, 2. the coronavirus, 3. the recession.

just as i did a couple months ago, i think trump is slightly better than a coin flip to win the election, so the current odds are pretty attractive.

[alani123]

In other news, Trump called masks 'patriotic'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/trump-says-coronavirus-masks-are-patriotic-after-months-of-largely-resisting-wearing-one.html

I bet he was sat down and talked down by many experts. There's an entire movement behind denial to wear a mask and general non-conformity with lockdown measures and its almost entirely republicans that are doing it.
Trump had fought hard to make edge statements on vaccines too. My view is that his goal was to earn the vote of people in this growing movement (as opposed to helping the movement itself grow).

In my view, this must have caused trump to lose at least part of the vote of the group he was pandering to. His weak stance on coronavirus handling probably had a damaging effect if anything else. Not in the US more of the people have lost relatives than in other countries. So talk about health care is again on the table.

[FontSeli]

 Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.

I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)

I doubt that the middle class will like pogroms in cities when many people's property is suffering. I think that people will vote first of all for those who will restore order and take into account the interests of all normal people, regardless of their skin color and financial status. And such a person in my opinion may well be Trump.

[bryant.coleman]

China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up. Trump is not the solution to China however and the voters will soon see that.

China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control. Examples are:

1. Pakistan: Ceded the Shaksgam Tract (7,000 sq.km) to China in 1963, although it was a part of the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir
2. Russia: Ceded the Damansky island, Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island and several hundred smaller riverine islands to China in 2008, although they were under the control of the USSR previously.  
3. Kazakhstan: Ceded almost 1,000 sq.km of land to China in 1995
4. Kyrgyzstan: Ceded Uzengi-Kush region to China in 2009
5. Tajikistan: Ceded 1,322 sq.km of land in Pamir to China in 2002

Now the other neighbors may not be that comfortable with ceding their territory to China, which in my opinion is understandable.

And here, I should say that Trump is doing a lot to support those countries which are suffering from the Chinese bullying.

[Cnut237]

China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control.

Chinese bullying.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.

[evilgreed]

China's claim on the territory owned by neighboring countries are not based on historic facts. They have territorial disputes with almost all of their neighbors. In some cases (Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Russia.etc), the neighbors gave in to the demand by China and ceded territory that was previously under their control.

Chinese bullying.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.

             Precisely. They are in advantageous position because of their political power and their influence through out the entire globe. The chinese government also is not someone or something that will cower in front of other superpowered countries and would rather choose to fight back than being underestimated.

[figmentofmyass]

Trump could win not just because Biden is not liked or China is a danger or any other reason, but because he does have a cult"ish" follower base, they would vote for him no matter what, it could be raining fire and they would still go out to vote.

I would doubt about that. Yeah, there many guys from Texas which will vote for him anyway. But Trump's voting core is white middle class. And i doubt that they all for Trump now (someone because he was not to active against BLM looters and some for another reasons)

I doubt that the middle class will like pogroms in cities when many people's property is suffering. I think that people will vote first of all for those who will restore order and take into account the interests of all normal people, regardless of their skin color and financial status. And such a person in my opinion may well be Trump.

trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

if unemployment pushes back up again in the next couple months (i think it will), that's an extra source of agony for trump. he has his core supporters, but it ain't a majority of voters. he and his campaign need to find a better way to channel the economic suffering that's about to get a whole lot worse with lots of stimulus benefits expiring this month.

[bbc.reporter]

House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

i posted about this a few weeks ago. i think pollsters have done a lot to repair their failings from 2016 re ignoring rural constituencies and swing state dynamics. the real problem is that trump voters are somewhat atypical compared to traditional republican voters. and it's difficult to know whether they will show up in numbers to the polls or not, or on the other hand, whether the growing contingent of anti-trump republicans/independents will sustain momentum.

A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the "Primary Model," an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

"The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November," Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

very interesting! i suspect that this election is a bit more unpredictable/higher variance than most elections, because 1. trump makes it inherently unpredictable as i mentioned above, 2. the coronavirus, 3. the recession.

just as i did a couple months ago, i think trump is slightly better than a coin flip to win the election, so the current odds are pretty attractive.

Also, 4. the riots from the extreme left that are destroying American monuments, burning books, calling to defund the police and that are supported by democrats.

[iTradeChips]

South China Sea

They are probably going to need to rename the sea before China realises they dont own the entire area and every coast line on that sea.   Its already well established that China has no rights to take actions against others in international waters, its very possible they are the aggressor into territory not theirs.   Its one of the big reasons you might suppose the current situation with Dollar and USA as a super power does continue into decades forward because the world has to have some stability to counter rogue states.

It also explains to me why Biden wont win just because he isnt Trump, thats not nearly enough to have certainty of any win.   People will stick with the devil they know, despite Biden being the vice president previously and having some inroads.   I dont feel like its enough presently, the demographic makeup of voters matters alot to guess their direction and momentum.   In a country like India where the majority of the population is below the age of 30, they are substantially different and large changes might occur in that countries political determination but USA is stuck in the mud as it were, you can guess what will happen next by being very similar to the past results and the precedent is that the standing candidate is reelected.

The part where the Philippines Economic zone lies was named "West Philippine Sea" by a decree during the time President Benigno Aquino Jr. Some Southeast asian countries also gave names to their part of the disputed territory so that it will not be named South China sea. I would like to call it the "Champa" sea as it was called before during the old empire days of the great Cham empire. China's aggression to the said part of the world has only been watched by the United States possibly only during the past few years as they did nothing to prevent China from building structures in the region during the first 2 decades of the 21st century. The United Nations was also inactive and I say impotent when it comes to implementing rules and regulations they create. It is only this year that Trump became interested (I think) with the said Sea. So I think a Trump victory is crucial for current flexing of the U.S. in South east asia to continue.

[Tom Bombadil]

There is one thing I know: Nothing happens in America by chance. Everything happens as expected. The leader in the surveys is probably the one to win the elections.

The world is gradually turning into a despotic world. Under these circumstances, I do not expect a different leader to become president.

[FontSeli]

trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

if unemployment pushes back up again in the next couple months (i think it will), that's an extra source of agony for trump. he has his core supporters, but it ain't a majority of voters. he and his campaign need to find a better way to channel the economic suffering that's about to get a whole lot worse with lots of stimulus benefits expiring this month.

I don't live in the US so of course I can't know everything. However, what I see when he pursues a policy of returning industrial enterprises to the United States, when he imposes duties on cheap Chinese goods, when he encourages the creation of new jobs - these are all things that can appeal to the working-age population.

The Democrats could not offer anything other than unleashing wars all over the world and the country's life at the expense of other plundered countries.

[amishmanish]

China unfortunately does have some claim,,, whether or not we like it or if it ethical, but it is not the only country to have such claims and unfortunately, for some reason or other at some point in time or other,,, other countries for political reasons or historical have backed it up.

I think this below was a response to this.

China doesnt have a claim any more then USA has a right to stop people crossing the atlantic, the territorial waters of the chinese mainland only go so far and then its open waters for any ship.   If they intend to start a war or aggression similar to north korea then they will degrade their position in the world.   Really that would be the same whichever party in in control in USA.

Building artificial islands and threatening other countries is just part of CCP's ongoing self-aggrandization.

I'd agree that this is China flexing its muscles. It has risen to superpower status on the world stage, and like any superpower is using its might to get what it wants. Global politics is often far more about who is most powerful than it is about who is morally right. Probably the only way to remedy this is to have a supreme global legal body that has actual and practically enforceable powers - which of course will not happen, as it would be advantageous to weak nations but disadvantageous to the powerful.

It is not simply anymore about China inevitably flexing muscles because its a superpower. The Chinese philosophy and methods are antithetical to the concept of mutual respect and fraternity amongst nations. Chinese operate with an assumption of superiority and being above international law. CCP has shown that it is unsuitable to be an honorable member in the comity of nations. The world cooperated with them and they benefited immensely from the investments and open markets in the last two decades. What did they do in return?? Back-stab everyone, Steal technology, try to undermine social stability and cohesion by playing on fault lines of democracies and use a pandemic as a stock-buying opportunity.

Geo-strategic think-tanks have long battled with the question that what would a rising China look like. It is getting clearer by the day. Ask Hongkongers.

[uneng]

Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?
So if you want to match the correct poll result you need to forget about numbers, probabilities and start to see the political scenario as the masses do, in a simple way. These people are the ones who decide the final result, not the media, the journalists, social influencers, economists...

Sophisticated campaigns, funded by sophisticated sponsors and foundations, which bring sophisticated proposals don't please people very much. People want simple solutions for their needs: jobs, health, security and freedom... More than this is unnecessary and start becoming too much complex. Most citizens don't worry if the candidate is from here or there, immigrant, inherited from Central America, Europe, Asia or if he has support from Hollywood or global organizations. That is worthless propaganda.

Be more sensitive to match the result!

[johhnyUA]

trump's prospects are tied to the economy and markets much more than biden. he represents pro-business policies and an end to stimulus packages that directly benefit the middle class, who is probably getting accustomed to all these coronavirus handouts. with biden in office and a democrat majority in the senate, the handouts will keep coming---some of them will be made permanent and some will also be expanded too.

That's a reason why middle class majority will vote for Trump. If the coronavirus will not break usa economy much deeper, of course. In that case, we will see that yesterday middle class will vote for any socialists (like Sanders or Biden).

It's irony that Sanders is out of president election, it would be more funny to see.

 

that's something to consider. trump represents austerity at a time when such policies are very dangerous politically. the economic data can only be manipulated so much, and his tweets hyping poor numbers can only go so far. and that's one of the most unpredictable things about this election---how bad will things get in the next few months due to the coronavirus madness?

E-X-A-C-T-L-Y!

Everything will depend on what will be with economy in next few month.

[figmentofmyass]

Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?

only the dumbest of the dumb ever believed that. bookies had odds ~75% in favor of hillary, with polls tending towards the 80% mark---some higher, some lower.

for all we know, 75-80% chances was correct. that means trump would have won 1 out of every 4-5 times. and maybe that's exactly what happened.

keep in mind that biden only has a 6-10 point lead in the polls. there is no comparison to 98-2 in 2016.

[bbc.reporter]

Odds and statistics play too little in politics. Do you remember Hillary had 98% winning chance and Trump only 2%?

only the dumbest of the dumb ever believed that. bookies had odds ~75% in favor of hillary, with polls tending towards the 80% mark---some higher, some lower.

for all we know, 75-80% chances was correct. that means trump would have won 1 out of every 4-5 times. and maybe that's exactly what happened.

keep in mind that biden only has a 6-10 point lead in the polls. there is no comparison to 98-2 in 2016.

However, this is only from what we know from the mainstream stories we read or the polls they create. We do not know what the silent majority is planning and who they would vote.

Also, the number of people in the silent majority is greater than 2016.



A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self‐​censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.

Source https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share

[Cnut237]

A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive.

I'm not keen on the Cato Institute, but the survey result sounds reasonable. Trump is in many ways a one-off, but in other ways his performance is much as we'd expect from a right-wing demagogue. The key to gaining and retaining power is to set various categories of 'poor' people against one another. Blaming everything on immigrants is the most common approach, but stoking racial tensions within a nation is also popular. After 4 years of Trump, we can't be surprised to see that the situation within the society is more tense.

[DevilSlayer]

A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive.

I'm not keen on the Cato Institute, but the survey result sounds reasonable. Trump is in many ways a one-off, but in other ways his performance is much as we'd expect from a right-wing demagogue. The key to gaining and retaining power is to set various categories of 'poor' people against one another. Blaming everything on immigrants is the most common approach, but stoking racial tensions within a nation is also popular. After 4 years of Trump, we can't be surprised to see that the situation within the society is more tense.

I do not trust surveys after all because not all of it are legit and they are just surveying specific people and not random people. Trump will gonna win in the next election for sure even Joe Biden is leading in online polls and survey because most of the polls and surveys are fixated and controlled by some people or even organization, so basically it is biased. I do not know why there are a lot of American citizens do not appreciate what Trump did in their country.  Trump is really a good leader and in order to proved it, he have a lot of books that been published in the past.