US Presidential Election 2020

[lebregone]

wonder if what are the available sites that are accepting this kind of game because it is very interesting to see the outcome and if we can bet early then I am pretty sure that we can also get a better odds. Unlike when the election will be very near, it is already less than 2 months before the election will likely to happen. With regards to the odds that you drop, I am not very familiar to it and what will be the best website where we can place our bet? I like to place my bet for Joe Biden as I guess he has good chances to win this upcoming election.

[tyKiwanuka]

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.

I checked in a bookmaker that often has some crazy bets, but nothing available

For refusing to accept defeat, I would basically play any odds, since it will be the case no matter what. But then again we would have to define what "refusing" is. If it's just going on a rant of epic proportions, even 1.01 is super value for me Anything more I would be a bit more cautious with my money. Challenging the election results ? Maybe something around 1.20 is already good^^ Barricading in the WH ? Phew, I would want 50+ for that

wonder if what are the available sites that are accepting this kind of game (...)

You should be able to place a bet on Biden in nearly every bookmaker there is. The best odds on him you will probably find at Betfair Exchange.

[bbc.reporter]

It is perplexing to see such a big difference between the betting odds and the probabilities being given by websites such as Realclearpolitics and
FiveThirtyEight. Many of the gambling sites now (slightly) favor Trump to win the 2020 POTUS elections. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight is giving a 71% chance that Biden may win this election. Given this, the most logical thing to do would be to place a bet in favor of Biden.

Yes, you're right, seems sensible to bet for Biden if you can get good odds. I suppose with gambling sites, they are adjusting their odds based on how much money is being bet (at what odds) on each party, so it doesn't purely reflect the candidates' chances.

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

[bryant.coleman]

It is perplexing to see such a big difference between the betting odds and the probabilities being given by websites such as Realclearpolitics and
FiveThirtyEight. Many of the gambling sites now (slightly) favor Trump to win the 2020 POTUS elections. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight is giving a 71% chance that Biden may win this election. Given this, the most logical thing to do would be to place a bet in favor of Biden.

Yes, you're right, seems sensible to bet for Biden if you can get good odds. I suppose with gambling sites, they are adjusting their odds based on how much money is being bet (at what odds) on each party, so it doesn't purely reflect the candidates' chances.

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.

Hmm.. I understand. BTW, anyone remember the Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman fight? Initially the odds were biased towards Thurman, but as Pacquiao fans made big bets on the Filipino boxer, the gambling sites adjusted their odds and in the end Pacquiao ended up with better odds than Thurman. This was illogical, as I thought that Thurman was in a much better chance of knocking out Manny. But then, Pacuiao won that fight.

[Cnut237]

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

I just can't imagine Trump ever admitting that he's lost in a two-horse race. The world inside his head bears little relation to reality at the best of times. Has he ever admitted he's been wrong about anything, or competed in something where he acknowledged that he did not win? His actions as president demonstrate that he regards laws as a hindrance rather than a necessary constraint. I do think this is a genuine potential outcome - I don't know whether he'll win or lose, but if he does lose, there's got to be a reasonable chance that he refuses to acknowledge that he's lost, refuses to relinquish the presidency, and starts all manner of legal objections.

[erikoy]

I just can't imagine Trump ever admitting that he's lost in a two-horse race. The world inside his head bears little relation to reality at the best of times. Has he ever admitted he's been wrong about anything, or competed in something where he acknowledged that he did not win? His actions as president demonstrate that he regards laws as a hindrance rather than a necessary constraint. I do think this is a genuine potential outcome - I don't know whether he'll win or lose, but if he does lose, there's got to be a reasonable chance that he refuses to acknowledge that he's lost, refuses to relinquish the presidency, and starts all manner of legal objections.

He is already a president if he come losing this election then that is already enough to serve the people. It is nor about him running for the presidency it is all about the people's choice to serve for them. Presidency is not about the power or position you hold rather it is a how people wanted the service they deserve from money.

If P Trump will not accept defeat then definitely he is just running for himself for his self interest to gain what their country to offer to him.

[figmentofmyass]

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

Why you are assuming this? Last time, Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million votes more than Trump and still accepted defeat. Because Trump won thanks to the electoral college.

hillary has changed her tune a bit recently. this time she says the democrats should not concede under any circumstances: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-should-not-concede-on-election-night

Hillary Clinton issued a warning for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in a new interview released Tuesday, urging the former vice president to not concede defeat on the night of the Nov. 3 election — no matter the circumstances.

"Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances," Clinton said. "Because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually, I do believe he will win, if we don't give an inch and if we are as focused and relentless as the other side is."

if the election is close, i'm anticipating a contested election similar to george w bush vs al gore in 2000. weeks of legal challenges and recounts etc.

no, trump won't declare a state of emergency and try to take dictatorial control and outright reject the election results and judicial system---you'd have to give me insanely long odds to bet on that. but court/recount drama that drags out into late november or december? i could see that happening for sure.

[Saint-loup]

Donald Trump is nominated for the Nobel peace prize LOL
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize/1967732

[Vishnu.Reang]

hillary has changed her tune a bit recently. this time she says the democrats should not concede under any circumstances: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-joe-biden-should-not-concede-on-election-night

Anyway it is going to get quite complicated this time. More than half of the voters are saying that they will be voting through postal ballots. And another complexity is that those who prefer postal ballots are mostly Democrats, and those who prefer to vote in person are mostly Republican. This can lead to unforeseen circumstances when the counting begins. Trump may end up having a lead in almost all the states (including the deep blue states) for the first 4-5 hours. Postal ballots are counted only after all the other ballots are accounted for and it may take a few days to complete the process. If the number of postal ballots are very large, then Trump may be in the lead for the first few days.

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

Why you are assuming this? Last time, Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million votes more than Trump and still accepted defeat. Because Trump won thanks to the electoral college. Grass root democrats were unhappy, but as far as I know there was no rioting or vandalism. On the other hand, I am not sure whether Trump will accept the same, if he loses the election.

It was a very different situation back in 2016. The people were also not encouraged to riot and to support the call for defund the police hehehe.

What can Trump do if he is not rightfully the winner under the electoral college? He cannot legally stay in the white house. The guards will force him out because he is not the commander in chief anymore hehehe.

[bryant.coleman]

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

Why you are assuming this? Last time, Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million votes more than Trump and still accepted defeat. Because Trump won thanks to the electoral college. Grass root democrats were unhappy, but as far as I know there was no rioting or vandalism. On the other hand, I am not sure whether Trump will accept the same, if he loses the election.

It was a very different situation back in 2016. The people were also not encouraged to riot and to support the call for defund the police hehehe.

What can Trump do if he is not rightfully the winner under the electoral college? He cannot legally stay in the white house. The guards will force him out because he is not the commander in chief anymore hehehe.

As Vishnu.Reang pointed out in one of the previous posts, this time the counting is going to be very complex. More than half of the votes will be from mailed out ballots. Unlike the previous elections, the winner this time won't be declared for many days after the elections. This can obviously result in allegations of fraud, similar to what happened during the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota.

[Timelord2067]

Did anyone happen to catch the interview on the BBC radio program overnight "Hard Talk"?  The senior Republican official being interviewed researches public sentiment and advises the GOP of the trends and concerns of the Republican voters who it seems think Trump will loose in the key 11 states with the others not being in contention (i.e. not swing state enough) with billions of dollars being spent on advertorials.

Then today the "Covid Recordings" have come to light, so it's looking less likely the GOP will win.  (Stranger things have been known to happen)

[Cnut237]

Donald Trump is nominated for the Nobel peace prize LOL
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-trump-nominated-for-nobel-peace-prize/1967732

He could win it. It's often awarded more for political reasons than on merit. The infamous mass-murderer Henry Kissinger won it back in the 70s.

I don't like Trump, but it could be argued that his pursuit of US isolationism and retreat from the world stage is actually more conducive to global peace than what a lot of previous presidents have achieved.

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon your analysis is on the wrong way hehe. I predict that Trump will win the electoral college and make him the rightful winner, however, the popular vote will be for Biden. The Democrats will then not accept their loss and continue the riots and barricade their own communities.

Why you are assuming this? Last time, Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million votes more than Trump and still accepted defeat. Because Trump won thanks to the electoral college. Grass root democrats were unhappy, but as far as I know there was no rioting or vandalism. On the other hand, I am not sure whether Trump will accept the same, if he loses the election.

It was a very different situation back in 2016. The people were also not encouraged to riot and to support the call for defund the police hehehe.

What can Trump do if he is not rightfully the winner under the electoral college? He cannot legally stay in the white house. The guards will force him out because he is not the commander in chief anymore hehehe.

As Vishnu.Reang pointed out in one of the previous posts, this time the counting is going to be very complex. More than half of the votes will be from mailed out ballots. Unlike the previous elections, the winner this time won't be declared for many days after the elections. This can obviously result in allegations of fraud, similar to what happened during the 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota.

That does not change on what might occur if Trump wins or Biden wins. Trump cannot be sitting in the white house if he is not the rightful winner, however, the Democrats will protest the results if they lose while Trump is sitting in the white house.

I reckon Trump can protest but he will not be the sitting president.

[Cnut237]

Trump cannot be sitting in the white house if he is not the rightful winner

Do you mean cannot, or should not? This is quite a distinction.

Scenario: Biden wins.

What is Trump's response?
a) he graciously concedes defeat,
b) he refuses to admit he has lost, claims that the election was rigged, refuses to leave the White House, and starts legal proceedings,
c) something else.

Consider the huge number of mail-in votes that there will be because of the pandemic, and Trump's various tweets and comments about mail-in votes being fraudulent.
Consider that the election outcome depends largely on a few swing-states, some of which have Republican-controlled legislatures.
Consider Trump's previous record on accepting defeat in anything (graciously or otherwise).

I actually think that option B is reasonably likely.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Consider that the election outcome depends largely on a few swing-states, some of which have Republican-controlled legislatures.
Consider Trump's previous record on accepting defeat in anything (graciously or otherwise).

Although there are a total of 50 states, in reality the presidential election takes place in just 9 states. The remaining 41 states are either deep-blue or deep-red and no one expects any upset in these states. The 9 swing states in my opinion are: NH, PA, MI, MN, WI, FL, NV, AZ and OH. Trump needs to win a minimum of 7 or 8 out of these 9. The results from the other states doesn't have any significance.

Also, the number of swing states are on the decline. Earlier, we would have considered states such as VA, MO, IA, CO.etc as swing states. But they have moved away from the center.

[casperBGD]

Consider that the election outcome depends largely on a few swing-states, some of which have Republican-controlled legislatures.
Consider Trump's previous record on accepting defeat in anything (graciously or otherwise).

Although there are a total of 50 states, in reality the presidential election takes place in just 9 states. The remaining 41 states are either deep-blue or deep-red and no one expects any upset in these states. The 9 swing states in my opinion are: NH, PA, MI, MN, WI, FL, NV, AZ and OH. Trump needs to win a minimum of 7 or 8 out of these 9. The results from the other states doesn't have any significance.

Also, the number of swing states are on the decline. Earlier, we would have considered states such as VA, MO, IA, CO.etc as swing states. But they have moved away from the center.

yeah, and FL could be a decision maker, since the number of electoral votes from FL is the biggest, so it is not just to win a seven or eights states, it is to pick the right ones as well
one could tell that this is not good election model, since you do not have to win majority of votes in the country to win the elections, but it is there for a long time, and nobody is complaining

[bryant.coleman]

yeah, and FL could be a decision maker, since the number of electoral votes from FL is the biggest, so it is not just to win a seven or eights states, it is to pick the right ones as well
one could tell that this is not good election model, since you do not have to win majority of votes in the country to win the elections, but it is there for a long time, and nobody is complaining

FL do have a very large number of electoral votes (29), but I don't think that it is that important. The reason is that Trump can still lose the elections even if he wins in Florida. According to FiveThirtyEight, Pennsylvania is going to be the state that will decide who wins this election (you can check their forecast here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast, check the section "The winding path to victory").

[Cnut237]

one could tell that this is not good election model, since you do not have to win majority of votes in the country to win the elections, but it is there for a long time, and nobody is complaining

It is certainly flawed, but then so are most other democracies. If a country were to move to a system whereby representatives accurately reflected votes, then we are talking about proportional representation. The reason that this doesn't tend to be implemented (thinking more about countries where there are more than two main political parties) is that, whilst it is fairer, it benefits smaller parties by removing the inbuilt advantage that the current system gives to larger parties. So the larger parties, i.e., those in power, reject the possibility whenever it is raised. Basically it's governments acting in self-interest rather than the interests of their citizens, which, as you indirectly pointed out, is not a new development.

[STT]

You dont want a PR system for maybe similar reasons as to why a direct democracy and referendums on everything would not be best.   PR might seem fairer or more regular in theory but it divides power and causes fractured governance, it can mean a divided country and an inability to pass legislature without consent of every party in the spectrum of representatives.    I consider it dangerous for the weakness it might cause, a regular short term and a clear win or lose to a party with a manifesto is about as good as its likely to get.

Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College   11 in 100

No one wins the Electoral College
No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100

Only a 11 in 100 for this event seems to underline a Biden win but then the Clinton loss was unlikely I suppose.   I'm still not sure that site accounts for diversity in voting regions not following averages, obviously theres alot of votes that end up not having any weight overall because its a big win in that state and those votes werent needed there or minority votes elsewhere.

Never heard of the 2nd event being possible with congress.  I do recall the hung election of Bush jnr. and thats more probable at 5 in 100 apparently.   I could believe the votes might be obscure even on the day till late.