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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804027 times)
silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 04:52:49 PM
 #1421

BTW, what u guys think about facebook stock, worth a shot or will crash soon?

Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.  But you never know, it could go up, I don't see it thu Wink

PE of 108... You've got to be kidding me.

Forward PE could be 2 or 3..  They do have ~10% of all the people on the ENTIRE PLANET looking at their damn facebook pages every day.. The advertising potential is huge should they choose to exploit it in a way that doesn't turn peeps off..

Full disclosure:  I do not have a facebook page, but I might make one soon just to pick up chicks.. Wink
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silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 06:04:07 PM
 #1422



Today could be the day the downtrend is broken!!

Go baby go!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47506512

Double up on that bottom yo!!
SkRRJyTC
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May 21, 2012, 06:38:01 PM
 #1423

Double up on that bottom yo!!

That looks much more like a top than it looks like a double bottom to me...

This is just a bounce off of SMA(20,1,w) or you could attribute it to all the retail investors who had to cash out some AAPL to buy FB, now cashing out of FailBook and going back into AAPL
silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 08:02:24 PM
 #1424

OMG it just won't stop!!!

S3052
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May 21, 2012, 08:07:53 PM
 #1425

Maybe I should sign up for a spread betting company offering facebook so I can short it.  Smiley Except I wont.

On igmarkets you can already short facebook as of Friday.. and I did it :-)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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May 21, 2012, 08:10:58 PM
 #1426

Min-Max Ranges:
  • 40-80% gold
  • 10-40% silver
  • 10-30% bitcoin

Why? First, gold is the metal that will be revalued and remonetised into the global financial system (Bitcoin hasn't made enough inroads yet). Second, gold is less expensive to store than silver. Third, although silver will rise with gold, there is no certainty as to when & how revaluation will occur, or whether silver will keep up during latter stages of revalutation (financial utility may boost gold for a some time, even though the natural ratio is below 20:1).


I tend to agree with your ranges, with the addition that Silver most often behaves like an industrial metal and crashes with the entire financial market (i.e. Silver is already down about 50% from the Apr '11 high while Gold is UP vs. 2011..
This is why I recommend 0-15% silver in bear markets like we are in.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 08:37:54 PM
 #1427

I'm heavier into silver then gold, I think it has more upside then gold.

If it gets to 30 to 1 (50 silver 1500 gold).  I might think about rebalancing.
S3052
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May 21, 2012, 09:07:41 PM
 #1428

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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tvbcof
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May 21, 2012, 09:17:36 PM
 #1429

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out


Hmmm...Silver at $160,000/oz and 'soon', eh?  Or do you mean gold at $0.28/oz?

Thanks for reminding me how useless it is to pay attention to 'financial professionals'.


bitcool
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May 21, 2012, 09:32:44 PM
 #1430

...
Silver I consider somewhere between Gold and Bitcoin, but much closer to the Gold end of the spectrum.
...

This is only true volatility wise. 

If I were to order the abstraction of commodity currencies, it would be:
Water - Wheat - Pork belly - Copper - Silver - Gold - Bitcoin
S3052
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May 21, 2012, 09:34:03 PM
 #1431

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out


Hmmm...Silver at $160,000/oz and 'soon', eh?  Or do you mean gold at $0.28/oz?

Thanks for reminding me how useless it is to pay attention to 'financial professionals'.



Gold 1,300 $, Silver 13 $. It is that simple.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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tvbcof
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May 21, 2012, 09:40:38 PM
 #1432

...
Silver I consider somewhere between Gold and Bitcoin, but much closer to the Gold end of the spectrum.
...

This is only true volatility wise. 

If I were to order the abstraction of commodity currencies, it would be:
Water - Wheat - Pork belly - Copper - Silver - Gold - Bitcoin

My ordering:

  gold -> silver ----(xMany)---> BTC

is something I would argue in terms of safely storing wealth (high to low) and in terms of _potential_ to increase one's wealth (low to high.)


tvbcof
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May 21, 2012, 09:43:31 PM
 #1433

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out


Hmmm...Silver at $160,000/oz and 'soon', eh?  Or do you mean gold at $0.28/oz?

Thanks for reminding me how useless it is to pay attention to 'financial professionals'.


Gold 1,300 $, Silver 13 $. It is that simple.

Thanks, but you've already reminded me.


S3052
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May 21, 2012, 09:45:46 PM
 #1434

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out


Hmmm...Silver at $160,000/oz and 'soon', eh?  Or do you mean gold at $0.28/oz?

Thanks for reminding me how useless it is to pay attention to 'financial professionals'.


Gold 1,300 $, Silver 13 $. It is that simple.

Thanks, but you've already reminded me.



No worries, I pay you all you can drink in beer for one day if I am wrong (if you drink beer)

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
tvbcof
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May 21, 2012, 10:02:07 PM
 #1435

I rather think it will soon be 100 (Gold) : 1 (Silver)

Lets see , the jury is out


Hmmm...Silver at $160,000/oz and 'soon', eh?  Or do you mean gold at $0.28/oz?

Thanks for reminding me how useless it is to pay attention to 'financial professionals'.


Gold 1,300 $, Silver 13 $. It is that simple.

Thanks, but you've already reminded me.


No worries, I pay you all you can drink in beer for one day if I am wrong (if you drink beer)

You cannot be wrong.  'soon' is to poorly defined (and the valuation of the USD is also subject to massive upheavals.)  I can tell you that 'soon' there will be a supervolcano at yellowstone and be quite correct in that projection because relative to the age of the earth, the next eruption is just around the corner.

If you want to put a bet on gold vs. barrels of oil at a particular point in time, and further stipulate that neither item is encumbered by legal issues, feel free to pop one out.  I like that high-end barelywine.  About $30/bottle, but even just one bottle gives me a lasting headache so there is no way I'm going to put away more than one/day.


silverbox
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May 21, 2012, 10:04:04 PM
 #1436

silver is going to 160k per oz zoon!!!  WOOT!!  Shocked
SkRRJyTC
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May 21, 2012, 10:05:43 PM
 #1437

S3052, could you please post some of your reasoning for your $13 dollar target for silver?
tvbcof
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May 22, 2012, 02:05:28 AM
 #1438


General Comment: BTC FTW (vs. last.)

Another Score:  5/21/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.90         5.10       + 0.86
Gold    1514         1590      + 1.05

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-05-21  5.90  5.10  0.86    1514  1590  1.05
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

bitsire
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May 22, 2012, 02:23:47 AM
 #1439

Min-Max Ranges:
  • 40-80% gold
  • 10-40% silver
  • 10-30% bitcoin

Why? First, gold is the metal that will be revalued and remonetised into the global financial system (Bitcoin hasn't made enough inroads yet). Second, gold is less expensive to store than silver. Third, although silver will rise with gold, there is no certainty as to when & how revaluation will occur, or whether silver will keep up during latter stages of revalutation (financial utility may boost gold for a some time, even though the natural ratio is below 20:1).

Thanks for the feedback miscreanity! I did struggle with my 50% silver and 30% gold choices for a while, but in my case I decided to go with the more speculative play. I see a lot more profit potential with silver, and the volatility doesn't bother me as I'm not selling anytime soon. Also, I would not be the slightest bit surprised to find out that there is actually much less available silver in the world than we've been led to believe.

I keep some USD, CAD and CHF on hand as well, and I'm looking at getting some more concealable gold like necklaces and bracelets in case the time ever comes where I have to pack up and F off in a hurry - gold jewelry and small coins would be best for that. A USB stick full of bitcoins wouldn't hurt either, especially if you have to go through any sort of checkpoint.  Grin
tvbcof
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May 22, 2012, 02:42:39 AM
 #1440

Min-Max Ranges:
  • 40-80% gold
  • 10-40% silver
  • 10-30% bitcoin

Why? First, gold is the metal that will be revalued and remonetised into the global financial system (Bitcoin hasn't made enough inroads yet). Second, gold is less expensive to store than silver. Third, although silver will rise with gold, there is no certainty as to when & how revaluation will occur, or whether silver will keep up during latter stages of revalutation (financial utility may boost gold for a some time, even though the natural ratio is below 20:1).

Thanks for the feedback miscreanity! I did struggle with my 50% silver and 30% gold choices for a while, but in my case I decided to go with the more speculative play. I see a lot more profit potential with silver, and the volatility doesn't bother me as I'm not selling anytime soon. Also, I would not be the slightest bit surprised to find out that there is actually much less available silver in the world than we've been led to believe.

I keep some USD, CAD and CHF on hand as well, and I'm looking at getting some more concealable gold like necklaces and bracelets in case the time ever comes where I have to pack up and F off in a hurry - gold jewelry and small coins would be best for that. A USB stick full of bitcoins wouldn't hurt either, especially if you have to go through any sort of checkpoint.  Grin

Full body scanners are popping up like mushrooms in the US, and manual cavity checks are now available to any degenerate law enforcement officer who get's his jollies out of such things.  I'd try to avoid a path which takes you through the US, but I don't expect you would require much convincing of that.  I'd be shocked if such policies were far behind in the vassal state of Canada (and I am aware that you guys are a commonwealth of the British Crown...in theory that is.)

I might suggest that a (well) encrypted wallet.dat floating around in the ether of cyberspace is an alternative, or supplement, to a USB stick, and might have it's advantages in a worst-case scenario.


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