[XMR] Monero Speculation

[binaryFate]

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?

Why do you care about this "BCX"? It's very unlikely who you believe it is. Same goes for his account on bitcointalk, most likely sold since a while.

[rpietila]

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

I on the other hand feel short-term bearish. The price had a good chance of reaching or breaking the previous top of 194, but the high so far is ominously 192 and both the price and the volume are in a decline. There is a good chance that this is a major intermediate top, and many traders will feel that the uptrend is in question and trade accordingly.

We must remember that the organic growth of interest towards Monero is exponential, with a very low starting value. The nature of exponential growth is such that in the beginning, the absolute numbers grow only slowly, but over time they become very large. It is therefore prudent to compare the speed of the uptrend to the possible actual growth of interest. Otherwise the uptrend will tip over as soon as the traders so decide.

This uptrend has been in force for 16 days, which is quite a bit longer than the Christmastime one, which lasted only 6 days. The position now is much stronger, with (so far) mainly the (so far) failure to take 194 when it was possible (only 5k XMR or so to 194 at its lowest, now 28k) being the alarm signal.

Many things can happen, the interest may renew quickly and buy up the asks in the 190-200 range. Or perhaps the traders smell blood and exit the speculative positions that the long uptrend has caused to pile up. Equally many are speculative "short", which may ease the decline. Sometimes the market also stays the same.

I am going to sleep and predict that we wake up in the low 160s. If that indeed happens, it means that a longer corrective phase lasting weeks and reaching as low as 134 is in the cards. Bears will call it the end of the uptrend, which I disagree with. Even if we make a higher high now, I would still be wary. It was clear that nobody wanted to step in the 194-land even when it was open. It takes a strong push from here to deep in the 200s to get to the next resistance zone above 290. My clients have the funds for doing it, but my feeling is that the coins will be able to be bought cheaper during the breather. As usual, I exhort to prove me wrong, this time by using the green button

[TrueCryptonaire]

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?

They know nothing.. Probably tricking you to give them buy support?

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

I on the other hand feel short-term bearish. The price had a good chance of reaching or breaking the previous top of 194, but the high so far is ominously 192 and both the price and the volume are in a decline. There is a good chance that this is a major intermediate top, and many traders will feel that the uptrend is in question and trade accordingly.

We must remember that the organic growth of interest towards Monero is exponential, with a very low starting value. The nature of exponential growth is such that in the beginning, the absolute numbers grow only slowly, but over time they become very large. It is therefore prudent to compare the speed of the uptrend to the possible actual growth of interest. Otherwise the uptrend will tip over as soon as the traders so decide.

This uptrend has been in force for 16 days, which is quite a bit longer than the Christmastime one, which lasted only 6 days. The position now is much stronger, with (so far) mainly the (so far) failure to take 194 when it was possible (only 5k XMR or so to 194 at its lowest, now 28k) being the alarm signal.

Many things can happen, the interest may renew quickly and buy up the asks in the 190-200 range. Or perhaps the traders smell blood and exit the speculative positions that the long uptrend has caused to pile up. Equally many are speculative "short", which may ease the decline. Sometimes the market also stays the same.

I am going to sleep and predict that we wake up in the low 160s. If that indeed happens, it means that a longer corrective phase lasting weeks and reaching as low as 134 is in the cards. Bears will call it the end of the uptrend, which I disagree with. Even if we make a higher high now, I would still be wary. It was clear that nobody wanted to step in the 194-land even when it was open. It takes a strong push from here to deep in the 200s to get to the next resistance zone above 290. My clients have the funds for doing it, but my feeling is that the coins will be able to be bought cheaper during the breather. As usual, I exhort to prove me wrong, this time by using the green button

I remain neutral.. I will not sell even the trading position (this might be a mistake once again). However I am not a buyer neither. It is kind of neutral zone, and anyway I have invested probably more than I should into XMR.
I really hope this will go much higher than 0.0029 at some point. And no, not because I am planning to dump. Dumping is not the way money is maximized. My selling strategy is to put small "walls" or fences I would rather say when the price approaches my target prices.
When XMR gets big (if it gets), there should be functioning OTC markets, too which will squeeze the dumps from guys who wish to have complete/partial exit. Thi screates the much needed liquidity to the markets at those days... However it is probably more current thing to be considered in 5-10 yrs from now though... These low exit points (like sub 100 usd public markets can handle I assume).

It is in uptrend when the price breaks resistance levels, as long as it has not broken any levels, it is still in bearish trend. Higher bottoms are not a sign of a bull trend. As long as the previous highs are not broken, it could be in best case a neutral/stabilizing but definetely not bullish.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?

They know nothing.. Probably tricking you to give them buy support?

Actually, they know quite a bit, especially if said btc is coming directly from them. I'm sure they also know whether or not they're lying to you   

Obviously, you shouldn't put much weight into anything being said in a trollbox.

[iourzzz]

Where are you trading at and with what app? I'm using Poloniex for buying my Monero, but the UI is soooo slow and nearly broken on my android.

 Polo crashes my phone, and my mediocre laptop barely functions.  Crazy resource hog.  Since I don't trade much, I can put up with it to buy my moneroj.  It sure would be nice to have a 'light' version with fewer features though.

I also don't trade much and would not attempt it at Polo on my new android phone.  I find it almost impossible to scroll through the order book.  I did cancel an order once.

To check the price I use bitcoinwisdom, no lag at all.  One stop shopping

There is a great free Android app, zTrader:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=co.bandicoot.ztrader

You can add Polo API keys there and trade Monero or anything else. It works flawlessly.

[jehst]

Peaks and troughs. It can't go up in a straight line. Going straight from .00166 to .002 in one day would've left the market feeling very toppy and in a very weak position. Attacking .002 from .00175 would be far better for the bulls.

[smooth]

Remember substance in the posts please. "Stupid bagholder blah blah blah" is not. Explain why at least.

[TrueCryptonaire]

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?

They know nothing.. Probably tricking you to give them buy support?

Actually, they know quite a bit, especially if said btc is coming directly from them. I'm sure they also know whether or not they're lying to you   

Obviously, you shouldn't put much weight into anything being said in a trollbox.

Obviously they can tell you if they are going to buy them. However if they are at least a little smart they wouldn't tell unless they do not count on the counter-effect: Everybody believes they have their own self-interest and therefore are not buying but selling instead it could give them a nice entrance price. 

[rpietila]

Obviously they can tell you if they are going to buy them. However if they are at least a little smart they wouldn't tell unless they do not count on the counter-effect: Everybody believes they have their own self-interest and therefore are not buying but selling instead it could give them a nice entrance price. 

That is my strategy at least So far it has lead to a significantly higher average buy price than what it was before the announcement. On the other hand, I don't really believe the volume would have been this high without (making it not possible to buy much at all).

In the end, everyone can decide for himself and the market is a collective of very many players and their strategies, some are after USD gains, some BTC, the others want and count in XMR, the sizes vary from 2 to 6 digits, and obviously the timeframes as well.

Options and shorting would spice it up a little...

[dreamspark]

Very interested in what will happen in the next couple of days. I still think we need to go down as I said in the trollbox yesterday but the fact that people are saying they want it to go down just means we're looking to buy and are in fact more likely to go up. It feels toppy but only because we're at the December high. If we push pass this in the next couple of days it could really rip upwards. Just can't decide whether to do it or not.

[Hueristic]

this thread need some dreamspark serious trading input asap. i'm lost.

If your lost, don't trade. What happens now is anyones guess. The books are super stacked. I've bought back a fair chunk of my trading stash to see what happens next. Even if we go up from here I'm still not that confident it goes much higher than previous short term high of 0.00175.

0.00199

Is that your estimate on how high? Or are you trying to tell me that 0.00175 isnt the previous short term high? (If its the latter it is. Previous high of 0.019x was three months ago. Thats not short term)

Time frames are all relative. IMHO, 3 months is still short-term in nature. I've always looked at in sub-3, short, 3-12 interm, >12 long. Granted, one could also argue accelerated time horizons given the volatility and infancy of crypto.

Course they are but trying to correct me when my time frame for before xmas is clearly medium term is just obtuse. Over 3 months just isn't short term in crypto and particularly alts.

So disagreeing is correcting now? Lets see who is correct.

Jesus whats your problem. If I say I don't think it will break the short term high of 0.00175 clearly the time frame I'm talking about doesn't include before Christmas. Arguing what constitutes short term is just arguing semantics, not price action. Just because you think short term includes before Christmas has no bearing on the point I'm making. Talk about trying to argue for arguments sake. I'm not going to argue with you about what constitutes short and medium and long term, they're opinions.

I'd say I was a little closer.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc

[jehst]

Very interested in what will happen in the next couple of days. I still think we need to go down as I said in the trollbox yesterday but the fact that people are saying they want it to go down just means we're looking to buy and are in fact more likely to go up. It feels toppy but only because we're at the December high. If we push pass this in the next couple of days it could really rip upwards. Just can't decide whether to do it or not.

16000+ XMR is mined in 24 hours. And it's still up big since yesterday. XMR is looking strong. The "more bitcoin than bitcoin" cryptonote thread is giving XMR some visibility. I bet that a few highly visible posts on reddit and coindesk would bring in some new money as people begin to recognize XMR's (coming) superiority. And then it will rip. The December high is only important if we continue this incestuous trading, passing XMR back and forth between a few dozen significant players. If new money enters, it won't matter at all. It's not like there's some giant wall at .0019x.

[opennux]

Very interested in what will happen in the next couple of days. I still think we need to go down as I said in the trollbox yesterday but the fact that people are saying they want it to go down just means we're looking to buy and are in fact more likely to go up. It feels toppy but only because we're at the December high. If we push pass this in the next couple of days it could really rip upwards. Just can't decide whether to do it or not.

But wait.. What if they are saying they want it to go down, so people will think they're looking to buy, but really it's a a double game.. agh folly..  

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs to find more buyers.
Otherwise after Risto's friends have their positions, there need to be more strong hands holding the coins.
Some kind of new adoption is needed, too.
Perhaps a few merry news on Coindesk will bring more people into Monerosphere.

[rpietila]

Monero needs to find more buyers.
Otherwise after Risto's friends have their positions, there need to be more strong hands holding the coins.
Some kind of new adoption is needed, too.
Perhaps a few merry news on Coindesk will bring more people into Monerosphere.

Like I told, the adoption is expected to be exponential, but the base level is very small, just "me and my friends".

If we can't make the transition to higher adoption in 1-2 months, even the current price is unsustainable. I still don't regret buying, because everyone in my circles is in for the long game, but if the downtrend resumes, the newcomers will get to buy cheaper.

That is the nature of speculation.

[GingerAle]

Monero needs to find more buyers.
Otherwise after Risto's friends have their positions, there need to be more strong hands holding the coins.
Some kind of new adoption is needed, too.
Perhaps a few merry news on Coindesk will bring more people into Monerosphere.

apparently aminorex is gonna go present to some investor types (main thread) and is lookin for a presentation package.

[dreamspark]

So is this gonna end exactly the same as always. Risto stops buying and price drops like a stone....

[farfiman]

So is this gonna end exactly the same as always. Risto stops buying and price drops like a stone....

Xmr is 50% above 1 month ago and about 10% above last week.  Stone?

[TrueCryptonaire]

So is this gonna end exactly the same as always. Risto stops buying and price drops like a stone....

That's the problem, there is a lack of buying other than Risto and his friends via him.
The adaption needs to go further... I think creating cashflow assets for Monero is something that attracts certain type of people who wish to quit working and have passive income.
That's one way there is a good chance to get at least some adaption. This could be marketed to ordinary investors from business forums.
This type of thing has absolutely huge potential, it might bring even 1 billion usd money into Monero.