[XMR] Monero Speculation

[akaman]

I'm a user of Monero and Sia (blockchain-based, decentralized, encrypted cloud storage; currently in beta; see http://sia.tech)

The Siacoin, which is used to pay for storage on the Sia network, is currently traded on Poloniex. Trading is represented only by the BTC:SC currency pair. The current price of a Siacoin is 3-4 satoshis which means the spread is about 25%. The reason for the low price is a very large number of Siacoins in existence (there's a logic to it...) and low demand at present time. With such poor liquidity, there is an entry barrier for new users.

I've asked Poloniex to add the XMR:SC currency pair. This would improve liquidity and lower the barrier to trade Siacoins. FURTHERMORE, which is why I'm posting this here, it would mean XMR holders could directly buy (repeat) decentralized, encrypted storage on the Sia network.

I like the idea of decentralized cloud storage. How safe it is to store files there? I mean not from feds or police, but that my files will not disappear when someone decides to switch of their node or few nodes go off line or something.

Redundancy is built into Sia (via Reed Solomon erasure coding) meaning a large proportion of hosts can go offline without file loss. If a file is 'damaged' (i.e. redundancy is reduced but file is still retrievable) then the network will attempt to repair the file behind the scenes. Its pretty cool. There are alternatives to Sia, but I think the Sia developers are doing things right. They very much share the Monero developers mantra of "under-promise" and "over-deliver".

That being said, the Sia network is still in its infancy and the current deamon and client software is in beta, but you should definitely try it out and hang out in the forum at http://forum.sia.tech for updates (there are also a couple of threads here on Bitcointalk).

[Days]

Is there a budget system here?  and Is there a way to know where these coins are going too like which project? (talking about the donations and MoneroDice 10% funds)

[smooth]

Is there a budget system here?  and Is there a way to know where these coins are going too like which project? (talking about the donations and MoneroDice 10% funds)

Most of the funding (crowdfunding/donations) is now via the Forum Funding System, where you can see which projects were funded under Work In Progress and Completed Tasks (in the Archive section). New proposals are in Funding Required.  All of those are here: https://forum.getmonero.org

The direct donations to the project were used for some freelance developers, crypto review, etc. last year along with ongoing things like hosting, legal, etc. That had some accounting posted a while back, where the amount donated ended up being well short of the amount actually spent, with the remainder covered by the core team itself. Since the development is now primarily funded by the FFS above, direct donations have tapered off but donations for covering project overhead are still welcome.

The MoneroDice 10% funds don't exist yet as at least two people have explained, but if and when they do exist they will probably go through the FFS. That's up to fluffypony though.

[Days]

Is there a budget system here?  and Is there a way to know where these coins are going too like which project? (talking about the donations and MoneroDice 10% funds)

Most of the funding (crowdfunding/donations) is now via the Forum Funding System, where you can see which projects were funded under Work In Progress and Completed Tasks (in the Archive section). New proposals are in Funding Required.  All of those are here: https://forum.getmonero.org

The direct donations to the project were used for some freelance developers, crypto review, etc. last year along with ongoing things like hosting, legal, etc. That had some accounting posted a while back, where the amount donated ended up being well short of the amount actually spent, with the remainder covered by the core team itself. Since the development is now primarily funded by the FFS above, direct donations have tapered off but donations for covering project overhead are still welcome.

The MoneroDice 10% funds don't exist yet as at least two people have explained, but if and when they do exist they will probably go through the FFS. That's up to fluffypony though.

Thank you, checking up the forum now 

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Is there a budget system here?  and Is there a way to know where these coins are going too like which project? (talking about the donations and MoneroDice 10% funds)

Most of the funding (crowdfunding/donations) is now via the Forum Funding System, where you can see which projects were funded under Work In Progress and Completed Tasks (in the Archive section). New proposals are in Funding Required.  All of those are here: https://forum.getmonero.org

The direct donations to the project were used for some freelance developers, crypto review, etc. last year along with ongoing things like hosting, legal, etc. That had some accounting posted a while back, where the amount donated ended up being well short of the amount actually spent, with the remainder covered by the core team itself. Since the development is now primarily funded by the FFS above, direct donations have tapered off but donations for covering project overhead are still welcome.

The MoneroDice 10% funds don't exist yet as at least two people have explained, but if and when they do exist they will probably go through the FFS. That's up to fluffypony though.

I love the transparency of the Monero team.

Profitability for the dice site will come in the long term. In the short term, normal variance (and a low house edge) can lead to unpredictable results.

[dEBRUYNE]

Another update from ShenNoether (NobleSir) regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

edit 12/15/2015: I'm starting to play around with some c/c++ stuff that will help me implement this thing for real - I'll probably take a couple weeks off for xmas holidays though starting next week, so expect no updates dec 17-jan 4

All updates & links are in this thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/

[XMRpromotions]

Another update from ShenNoether (NobleSir) regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

edit 12/15/2015: I'm starting to play around with some c/c++ stuff that will help me implement this thing for real - I'll probably take a couple weeks off for xmas holidays though starting next week, so expect no updates dec 17-jan 4

All updates & links are in this thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/

Happy holidays ShenNoether and thanks for all you hard work!

[digicoin]

Interesting read https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3x5545/oleg_andreev_bitcoin_is_a_much_better_store_of/

I do believe that small blockers underestimates the role of a payment network (its first utility) in Bitcoin. They may think that Bitcoin network effect is big enough to make bitcoin a currency. And now payment network would not needed any more. Instead, they would build it as a settlement layer.

It is quite overly optimistic view. Bitcoin world is full of speculators who see bitcoin a speculative store of value. But speculative store of value is NOT store of value. It reminds me of Holland Tulip. Also, small amount of speculators do NOT refect long term and sustainable network effect

If small blockers ignore the role of payment network in Bitcoin too soon, people may have to find another cross-border, friction-less, cheap, fast and decentralized cryptocurrency to rely on.

Bitcoin is the first mover. But that advantage is not big enough if it slows down and pivots. In our history, Friendster was the first mover and failed as it could not scale to support its first utility: to host as may people as possible. Friendster users were unhappy because it was slow and down all the time. MySpace was the most crowded (biggest network effect) social network and failed because of lack of innovation, culture clash and making users unhappy.

In our social media, there is nothing that is too big to fail. I hope that Bitcoin can draw more users to cryptocurrency revolution. After that, Bitcoiners need to be more careful. Switching cost in cryptocurrency is not that high. BitPay, Coinbase ... can add any coin they want.

Monero 0.9 release will be big because it will make users happy

[rpietila]

There is surprisingly little end to the pride of many BTCers re: the first mover advantage. They quote TCP/IP was first and is still indispensable, but forsake Altavista and many other examples in the user layer. I don't claim to know the answer but not hedging the bets is folly, especially concerning how easy it is.

[tifozi]

What came first - The trading or the MACD 

[dEBRUYNE]

What came first - The trading or the MACD  

Depends on the timeframe, but most MACDs flipped before the little breakout.

[thelibertycap]

What came first - The trading or the MACD  

Depends on the timeframe, but most MACDs flipped before the little breakout.

MACD is a lagging indicator

[dEBRUYNE]

What came first - The trading or the MACD  

Depends on the timeframe, but most MACDs flipped before the little breakout.

MACD is a lagging indicator

I know, but that doesn't mean they can flip before a breakout.

[wachtwoord]

Interesting read https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3x5545/oleg_andreev_bitcoin_is_a_much_better_store_of/

I do believe that small blockers underestimates the role of a payment network (its first utility) in Bitcoin. They may think that Bitcoin network effect is big enough to make bitcoin a currency. And now payment network would not needed any more. Instead, they would build it as a settlement layer.

It is quite overly optimistic view. Bitcoin world is full of speculators who see bitcoin a speculative store of value. But speculative store of value is NOT store of value. It reminds me of Holland Tulip. Also, small amount of speculators do NOT refect long term and sustainable network effect

If small blockers ignore the role of payment network in Bitcoin too soon, people may have to find another cross-border, friction-less, cheap, fast and decentralized cryptocurrency to rely on.

I completely disagree. Store of value if by far the most important utility. Payment network is not important. A method to transfer wealth is important (but doesn't need to be fast and is fine to do for larger amounts).

If Monero gets traction it's because of the anonymity feature.

Yes I'm in favor of 1 MB Bitcoin blocks.

[smooth]

In our history, Friendster was the first mover

Not even. The first one I know about was sixdegrees, around five years before friendster. That had > 1 million users before the other sites existed. The main thing that happened is the others grew faster.

[digicoin]

I completely disagree. Store of value if by far the most important utility.

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

[e-coinomist]

Please explain "store of value" to that Bitcoin class of 2014-2015

[Rias]

I'm also not sure why you used the example of BitReserve, which is called Uphold now. Isn't it about transmission rather than either speculation or value storage?

[aminorex]

The wheat trade was amazing.  Took a lot longer than expected, and required one double-down but this morning it paid heavy.
The XMR trade is similar, methinks, albeit on a longer time scale.  Perhaps it is almost time to double-down again.  Give me 0.40 one more time, please?

[wachtwoord]

I completely disagree. Store of value if by far the most important utility.

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.