[XMR] Monero Speculation

[MalMen]

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.

I agree more with digicoin, in the future you can look at bitcoin as an storage of value, in the current state is far from it, it is still to risky to put money on bitcoin, you dont know if it will stay down or up tomorrow, and the change is huge on everyday basis... even knowing that the bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but it shouldnt be seen as an way to store value, at least for now... the advice that i give to all my friends is  "buy bitcoin, even 10€, but be aware that it can lost his value"

[wachtwoord]

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.

I agree more with digicoin, in the future you can look at bitcoin as an storage of value, in the current state is far from it, it is still to risky to put money on bitcoin, you dont know if it will stay down or up tomorrow, and the change is huge on everyday basis... even knowing that the bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but it shouldnt be seen as an way to store value, at least for now... the advice that i give to all my friends is  "buy bitcoin, even 10€, but be aware that it can lost his value"

I don't think you know what store of value means.

[TrueCryptonaire]

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.

I agree more with digicoin, in the future you can look at bitcoin as an storage of value, in the current state is far from it, it is still to risky to put money on bitcoin, you dont know if it will stay down or up tomorrow, and the change is huge on everyday basis... even knowing that the bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but it shouldnt be seen as an way to store value, at least for now... the advice that i give to all my friends is  "buy bitcoin, even 10€, but be aware that it can lost his value"

I don't think you know what store of value means.

Store of value means: you invest today 10 euros into an asset and tomorrow you are able to sell the asset for 10 euros. Therefore the requirement for a store of value is stability at least at some degree.

[americanpegasus]

As far of 'store of value', I feel pretty confident in holding savings in Monero from 40 to 60 cents. 
 
It would be pretty insane for the price to drop below the 35 cents range, and there is a good chance that demand (and thus price) will increase over time. 
 
Therefore Monero makes quite a nice money store at the moment, with the potential for significant gains as we go.

[jehst]

I think people who hold bitcoin over the long-term are going to find that it stores value very well.

And I look forward to making a chart like this for Monero in five or six years.

[ArticMine]

...
Store of value means: you invest today 10 euros into an asset and tomorrow you are able to sell the asset for 10 euros. Therefore the requirement for a store of value is stability at least at some degree.

I would say that a mix of 75% USD 25% XMR beats XBT as a store of value hands down.

[ArticMine]

I think people who hold bitcoin over the long-term are going to find that it stores value very well.

And I look forward to making a chart like this for Monero in five or six years.

I dispute that figure of 0.07 USD for 1 XBT on January 01, 2010. The figure was closer to 0.0008 USD. This would imply a fast declining rate of growth as the demand approaches the fixed 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin.

[wachtwoord]

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.

I agree more with digicoin, in the future you can look at bitcoin as an storage of value, in the current state is far from it, it is still to risky to put money on bitcoin, you dont know if it will stay down or up tomorrow, and the change is huge on everyday basis... even knowing that the bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but it shouldnt be seen as an way to store value, at least for now... the advice that i give to all my friends is  "buy bitcoin, even 10€, but be aware that it can lost his value"

I don't think you know what store of value means.

Store of value means: you invest today 10 euros into an asset and tomorrow you are able to sell the asset for 10 euros. Therefore the requirement for a store of value is stability at least at some degree.

No it does not. That is a stupid way to measure as it would make Euros themselves the best store of value. Fiat currencies lose value really quickly because they are diluted. Look up the prices of things in the US in 1900 and you'll see.

Bitcoin is a store of value because you still own the same percentage of the utility of the Bitcoin network today and tmw (because it is non-inflationary). As long as the utility does not go down (and the utility is exponentially rising due to the networking effect) you still own the same utility by owning the same percentage of the entire network and so haven't lost any value. This is true with Bitcoin at $0.01 and $5T.

[tifozi]

Full transparency of historical transactions as well as displaying the actual amount on a public address cannot be a long term "Store of Value". I don't want anyone to know how much "money" is associated with my address, that is a fundamental that Bitcoin can never overcome.

What we do see is an immense network effect in Bitcoin.

[jehst]

I think people who hold bitcoin over the long-term are going to find that it stores value very well.

And I look forward to making a chart like this for Monero in five or six years.

I dispute that figure of 0.07 USD for 1 XBT on January 01, 2010. The figure was closer to 0.0008 USD.

I just checked it. You're right.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:History#2010

laszlos famous pizza purchase at 10,000 BTC for ~$25 worth of pizza is .0025 BTC per pizza and that was in May.

.07 USD per bitcoin wasn't reached until after October 2010.


.29 / .0008 = 362.5

So 2010 was more like a 36,250% increase?

[smooth]

Full transparency of historical transactions as well as displaying the actual amount on a public address cannot be a long term "Store of Value". I don't want anyone to know how much "money" is associated with my address, that is a fundamental that Bitcoin can never overcome.

That's overstating things a bit since you can have as many Bitcoin addresses as you want.

What we do see is an immense network effect in Bitcoin.

And that.

[smooth]

You mean speculative store of value? I ever said that it is not store of value by traditional conventions. There is quite a few people in the world using bitcoin as store of value. All of them are speculators. That's why BitReserve exists.

In Bicoin - a payment network, bitcoin doesn't need to be a store of value, it is a medium of exchange. I think that many people are confused here.

It is too soon to say if bitcoin can become a store of value. I agree that store of value may be the most important utility in bitcoin in the future. But not now. Bitcoin's user base and network effect is simply too small.

If Bitcoin is a speculative store of value so is gold and silver. Bitcoin both has a limited supply by definition and a clear utility and is therefore a store of value.

Fiat currencies don't have a limited supply and are therefore not a store of value.

I agree more with digicoin, in the future you can look at bitcoin as an storage of value, in the current state is far from it, it is still to risky to put money on bitcoin, you dont know if it will stay down or up tomorrow, and the change is huge on everyday basis... even knowing that the bitcoin is extremely undervalued, but it shouldnt be seen as an way to store value, at least for now... the advice that i give to all my friends is  "buy bitcoin, even 10€, but be aware that it can lost his value"

I don't think you know what store of value means.

Store of value means: you invest today 10 euros into an asset and tomorrow you are able to sell the asset for 10 euros. Therefore the requirement for a store of value is stability at least at some degree.

No it does not. That is a stupid way to measure as it would make Euros themselves the best store of value. Fiat currencies lose value really quickly because they are diluted. Look up the prices of things in the US in 1900 and you'll see.

Bitcoin is a store of value because you still own the same percentage of the utility of the Bitcoin network today and tmw (because it is non-inflationary). As long as the utility does not go down (and the utility is exponentially rising due to the networking effect) you still own the same utility by owning the same percentage of the entire network and so haven't lost any value. This is true with Bitcoin at $0.01 and $5T.

Mostly agree with wachtwoord here although I think limiting it to the utility of the Bitcoin network is taking it too far. Expecting to be able to exchange that value into a useful amount of other goods is also a part of it.

All sorts of assets can be considered as stores of value, including all manner of investments, even if they don't have a constant or nearly-constant exchange rate. All that is required is a reasonable expectation of it having value in the future.

"Store of value" is one function of ideal money, but the definition doesn't go in the other direction; other assets can also serve.

[americanpegasus]

And I look forward to making a chart like this for Monero in five or six years.

 
 
Here's hoping this is our "2011" in the coming year. 
 
I just made a post on /r/Monero asking people what would be their magic number that Monero would have to hit before they quit their day job and retired to beaches and room service or went full-Ver.  My magic number is about $400.  Feel free to share yours.

[americanpegasus]

No it does not. That is a stupid way to measure as it would make Euros themselves the best store of value. Fiat currencies lose value really quickly because they are diluted. Look up the prices of things in the US in 1900 and you'll see.

This is a really fun website: http://www.dfas.mil/militarymembers/payentitlements/military-pay-charts.html

Check out historic pay for US military members throughout the years.  You'll see that as early as 1995, military members with 10 years of experience were being given a basic pay of as little as $13,000 a year.  The further you go back, the more ridiculous the inflation becomes evident.  You can see back in 1970 how someone with significant rank and experience would only get a basic pay of about $500 a month!

[smooth]

And I look forward to making a chart like this for Monero in five or six years.

 
 
Here's hoping this is our "2011" in the coming year. 
 
I just made a post on /r/Monero asking people what would be their magic number that Monero would have to hit before they quit their day job and retired to beaches and room service or went full-Ver.  My magic number is about $400.  Feel free to share yours.

$20 if it held for a while. Not because my XMR would be worth so much but only because I'd see enough potential to work on it full time (not necessarily core, but some aspect of it). I already spend a lot of time on the beach, so no biggie there. But remember, the plan includes one beautiful woman from each continent and I'm a few continents short currently.

[americanpegasus]

But remember, the plan includes one beautiful woman from each continent and I'm a few continents short currently.

Sorry man, like Cryptonote, the plan has evolved while you weren't looking.  The plan now is to buy Dracula's castle and the surrounding land and restore/add-on/promote it as one of the greatest tourist destinations on the planet.  
  
I have realized that there is only one way to manage the castle equivalent of the Playboy mansion, and so I will need to introduce a definite rank structure for all of the staff.  Staff may start out with very little to their name, but every year worked on the property brings increasing benefits, salary, and perks regardless of your job - some are maids, some cooks, and some just get to lay around in a mermaid costume by the pool all day.  
  
We will be highly selective about those we hire, and exceptionally reward those who spend an entire career working and living at the castle.  
  
This is the only way to go.  
  
If you are some crypto-mogul who invites 70 Instagram models to come live with you, all at the same time, and all on the same initial level, you can expect nothing but frustration and headaches for the rest of your days.  
  
You may also get to find out what it's like to be worth a billion dollars.... After being one of history's first trillionaires.  

[tifozi]

Full transparency of historical transactions as well as displaying the actual amount on a public address cannot be a long term "Store of Value". I don't want anyone to know how much "money" is associated with my address, that is a fundamental that Bitcoin can never overcome.

That's overstating things a bit since you can have as many Bitcoin addresses as you want.

A store of value cannot be the same as having to divide it into multiple different accounts or safety deposits just for privacy. A public record of the amount of something one holds can be tax liens, criminal records and convictions, not my money. The value of a unit inside an address is immaterial. It just cannot be a safe store of value.

What we do see is an immense network effect in Bitcoin.

And that.

Are you disagreeing that Bitcoin has immense network effect?

[smooth]

What we do see is an immense network effect in Bitcoin.

And that.

Are you disagreeing that Bitcoin has immense network effect?

No, agreeing!

At least, I agree it is immense relative to Monero. It is tiny relative to the traditional fiat currency system.

[iCEBREAKER]

What we do see is an immense network effect in Bitcoin.

And that.

Are you disagreeing that Bitcoin has immense network effect?

No, agreeing!

At least, I agree it is immense relative to Monero. It is tiny relative to the traditional fiat currency system.

Bitcoin is still tiny compared for example to the Somalian subset of the hawala network.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala#Horn_of_Africa

Ignore the traditional fiat nonsense; focus on System D.  The fiat will burn itself out as the paper inevitably returns to its intrinsic value.

Watch out informal remittance systems, we're gunning for ya!   

[Hueristic]

...
Store of value means: you invest today 10 euros into an asset and tomorrow you are able to sell the asset for 10 euros. Therefore the requirement for a store of value is stability at least at some degree.

I would say that a mix of 75% USD 25% XMR beats XBT as a store of value hands down.

I completely agree with this statement at this point in time.