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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312390 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
dEBRUYNE
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January 20, 2016, 06:17:59 PM
 #12261

What do you really expect from a speculation thread? Higgs boson?

Correct. I have not seen a Monero technical thread often popping up in the top of the Altcoin Discussion listings (and the marketing thread seems to be troll thread), so apparently I didn't have another venue to try to reach the audience. Or maybe I am just unaware of the correct thread (even if I posted in it before) because Monero has so many threads I can't keep track.

That would be very very much appreciated.  Let us lowly folk discuss the price swings and short term market action.  Best of luck and thanks for moving to more serious threads.

Will do.

You could use this -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1190988.0

Or just the ANN thread? -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

Or this -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1139756.0

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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January 20, 2016, 06:19:55 PM
 #12262

Okay so this is not http://z.cash (which is the inferior zerocoin) and apparently is the real Zerocash!

They are the same

Quote
The Zerocash protocol is being developed into a full-fledged digital currency, Zcash.

I don't know what happened. Last time I thought I loaded that page, I was looking at two young developers one of which was Asian. I need to sort out my confusion. I am very perplexed as to what I accidentally loaded last time.

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January 20, 2016, 06:22:41 PM
 #12263


Okay so this is not http://z.cash (which is the inferior zerocoin) and apparently is the real Zerocash! Wow. I am happy to see this in open source. Real progress at last. Maybe this is the reason for the dump of Monero?

I am happy to see this because I want to use something like this and also because I do not expect them to get the details correct on mining (no one has yet!). So there will be an opportunity to integrate this open source into a better block chain.

Major opportunities right now in crypto. Pick who you want to work with and pick carefully. I am looking for a few good men.

"Wilcox estimates the “real money” launch of Zcash is likely still close to six months away. The prototype version of Zcash that WIRED downloaded still lacked a user interface and instead required figuring out a tough-to-navigate set of command line functions."

"Like bitcoin, Zcash’s currency will be created by “mining” computers that compete to solve mathematical problems. But unlike bitcoin and other attempts to create an alternative cryptocurrency or “altcoin,” Zcash is launching as a for-profit company."

Monero still has the best anonymity available today and does not send 10% of all mined Monero to a for profit company.

Don't buy Monero: https://twitter.com/MoneroPromotion/status/746006420508729344

XMR: 43hPTYyKarCTWyh4ZnMVn8AtFeEmtzTXo3Y6TGGMV26BWonJ4tpR7eP9RkUDYQbvg6LbrnMXWfghddE NGtvKxr7B5oML4qd
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January 20, 2016, 06:25:24 PM
 #12264

Okay so this is not http://z.cash (which is the inferior zerocoin) and apparently is the real Zerocash!

They are the same

Quote
The Zerocash protocol is being developed into a full-fledged digital currency, Zcash.

I don't know what happened. Last time I thought I loaded that page, I was looking at two young developers one of which was Asian. I need to sort out my confusion. I am very perplexed as to what I accidentally loaded last time.

You loaded this -> http://moneta.cash/

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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January 20, 2016, 06:27:28 PM
 #12265


Okay so this is not http://z.cash (which is the inferior zerocoin) and apparently is the real Zerocash! Wow. I am happy to see this in open source. Real progress at last. Maybe this is the reason for the dump of Monero?

I am happy to see this because I want to use something like this and also because I do not expect them to get the details correct on mining (no one has yet!). So there will be an opportunity to integrate this open source into a better block chain.

Major opportunities right now in crypto. Pick who you want to work with and pick carefully. I am looking for a few good men.

Okay so this is not http://z.cash (which is the inferior zerocoin) and apparently is the real Zerocash!

They are the same

Quote
The Zerocash protocol is being developed into a full-fledged digital currency, Zcash.

I don't know what happened. Last time I thought I loaded that page, I was looking at two young developers one of which was Asian. I need to sort out my confusion. I am very perplexed as to what I accidentally loaded last time.




This is what I had seen before and I have no idea why the wires in my brain crossed and throught it was z.cash I had recently view before (perhaps I am just overloaded with so many technical issues in my mind at the moment and I just woke up). Apologies for the unnecessary noise due to my error.

Zerocoin implementation that is supposed to launch early this year:
http://moneta.cash/technology.html
https://github.com/MonetaOfficial/moneta

I think it is basically a rebranded version of Zerovert, which was a closed-source implementation released last year. One of the creators is one of Matthew Green's former students.

That is Zerocoin, not Zerocash. Zerocoin is a mixer only for sending coins to your self and delinking, thus it is subject to all metadata correlation breakage the same as for Monero (Cryptonote coins and ShadowCash and everything else!).

Only Zerocash hides everything and thus is immune to metadata correlation. Zerocash mints zerocoins (which are not the same as the coins in Zerocoin). Zerocoin was created by some of the same people who created Zerocash, but they are totally different technologies. Zerocash is much more powerful anonymity because all the coins and all the actions (e.g. transfer payment to another) are totally hidden in one big blob.

With that being said, it's still unproven technology, and I think there are some issues with launching the currency in a trustless manner, so for now Monero is probably most bestest.

It is not even clear if Zerocash will work in a real world implementation for scalability and DDoS reasons (and maybe other issues).

But none of that absolves the fact that Monero is fundamentally (mostly) useless for the reasons I stated upthread.

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January 20, 2016, 06:31:24 PM
 #12266

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them. moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash
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January 20, 2016, 06:32:44 PM
 #12267

back to the speculation... 12h looks like buy the dip before next wave, anybody else did some ta?

ma30/60/90/150 on 12h looks like bullish breakout for monero Smiley
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January 20, 2016, 06:34:33 PM
 #12268

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.

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January 20, 2016, 06:45:38 PM
 #12269

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash


What ever happened  to this?

What do you really expect from a speculation thread? Higgs boson?

Correct. I have not seen a Monero technical thread often popping up in the top of the Altcoin Discussion listings (and the marketing thread seems to be troll thread), so apparently I didn't have another venue to try to reach the audience. Or maybe I am just unaware of the correct thread (even if I posted in it before) because Monero has so many threads I can't keep track.

That would be very very much appreciated.  Let us lowly folk discuss the price swings and short term market action.  Best of luck and thanks for moving to more serious threads.

Will do.

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January 20, 2016, 06:55:16 PM
 #12270

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.


Would this metadata and combinatorial analysis hold even if mixin 10 was a default on all tx's?
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January 20, 2016, 06:56:11 PM
 #12271

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.


A for profit company with closed source code controlling the initial key for a zerocash like currency is a regulatory nightmare. This is especially the case in the United States where the company would be considered an MSB by FinCEN and be subject to AML/KNC reporting on transactions. If something approaches "Fedcoin" this would be it. Any kind of centralized distribution of the coins by an administrator will make the administrator an MSB subject to AML/KNC reporting. Please read the FinCEN guidance. https://www.fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html  

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 20, 2016, 06:57:18 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2016, 07:22:31 PM by TPTB_need_war
 #12272


I'll just copy my reddit comment here:

I've made this list earlier:

List of possible pitfalls wrt ZeroCash/ZeroCoin:

[1] If ZeroCash/ZeroCoin is launched on behalf of a company, which seems the case here, the company can be given a gag order (e.g. to add a line of malicious code).

Not if the block chain is decentralized, but see below...

[2] If I recall correctly, the creator of the genesis block holds some kind of masterkey. As a result, you have to trust this person. Even if this key was held by a group, you still have to trust that particular group. In addition, you have to trust the program they run to create the Genesis block (the masterkey could be in there).

The masterkey has to be produced in a way that no one knows it. The proposals had been to use a public ceremony and a computer examined by everyone attending, to be sure the masterkey is unknown to anyone.

Note if the masterkey is known, that person can create coins out-of-thin-air, but he can't unmask the anonymity. That is a crucial distinction.

This is why I proposed the idea of using Zerocash as a mixer that eventually times out, so that we can be sure the mixer hasn't created any new coins. Everyone going into the mixer takes the risk that they may not be able to come out of the mixer if the attacker has already created coins. Then we could have many of these mixers in a free market, and users would decide which mixers they trust. Again anonymity is never compromised and the run on the bank can only be a loss to participants, not to the entire ecosystem. I am pretty sure this solves the problem and this is why we can take their open source and beat them.

I am loaded with ideas and designs to solve real problems in crypto. Hopefully some smart devs are going to realize they are better off working with me.

[3] It's too opaque in my opinion. If a bug existed that would create additional coins, there is no way you would see it.

RingCT has the same problem. I explained in I believe both the chess thread and my Zero Knowledge Transactions thread. This is another reason I abandoned it (in addition to the inability to get reliable anonymity since it doesn't hide meta-data the way Zerocash/Zcash does).

[4] The math and cryptography backing it isn't peer reviewed yet and in an infancy stage.

Sort of true, but zk-snarks have been out for some years already (which is what Zerocash is based on) and one flaw was found and fixed already.

These are very, very smart dudes. Wilcox created the very awesome Blake2 hash which I am using in my design (much superior for CPUs).

I don't think you should bet against them, because Zerocash has anonymity and nothing else does! The community will make sure it is peer reviewed. We must. You had better start figuring out how to transition and pronto.

[1] seems to be confirmed. They will be launching as a for profit company, see:

Quote
For its first four years online, a portion of every mined Zcash coin will go directly to Wilcox’s Zcash company

This could also invoke some legal issues, since they are basically not a decentralid currency and bear in mind they are **US** based (http://www.bizapedia.com/de/THE-ZEROCOIN-ELECTRIC-COIN-COMPANY-LLC.html). Just remember what happened with Ripple.

All miners will have to register as money transmitters under FinCEN regulations, same as the issue for Dash masternodes. There has seriously bad implications in their investment strategy. But their code and developers are valuable. The investors can probably recover their money on the initial IPO. They should IPO the damn thing and do it legally and not mess with this "master of the universe" idea above.

I am contemplating contacting them, but I need to think through their economic options. It may be impossible to get them to do the right thing.

But they could definitely benefit from my endorsement in an IPO. A legal IPO! As well, they could benefit from my block chain tech.

Basically, with Ring Confidential Transactions included in Monero it's basically pepsi vs coke (thanks to u/smooth_xmr for this analogy), where both have their advantages and disadvantages.

Sorry I strongly disagree. Meta-data correlation is fundamental and smooth should remember how Dash and I lost on the point that Cryptonote one-time rings are End-to-End principled and off chain mixing (CoinJoin, CoinShuffle, etc) are not. This meta-data point is also fundamental and this time smooth is positioning himself on the wrong side of the truth. Hopefully he will realize this asap, although his vested interests may prevent him from being objective (hopefully not).

P.S. They are currently only on testnet, the "real-version" is at least 6 months away.

P.P.S. It seems like they transactions are also quit inefficient compared to Monero's. See this description on how to get from the basecoins (the transparent ones) to the zerocoins (anonymous ones):

Quote
This operation (called a pour) might take a minute or two depending on your hardware. It is producing a zero-knowledge proof. (This operation's performance will be improved in the coming months.)

We may indeed find irresolvable weaknesses, such as DDoS resistance is the one I am expecting given the slow speed of verification. But don't fall into the trap of being blinded and trying to rationalize your bagholding. The devil is in the details, and I would be very worried if I were you, that you are going to be wrong.

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January 20, 2016, 07:07:43 PM
 #12273

...
All miners will have to register as money transmitters under FinCEN regulations, same as the issue for Dash masternodes. There has seriously bad implications in their investment strategy. But their code and developers are valuable. The investors can probably recover their money on the initial IPO. They should IPO the damn thing and do it legally and not mess with this "master of the universe" idea above.

I am contemplating contacting them, but I need to think through their economic options. It may be impossible to get them to do the right thing.

But they could definitely benefit from my endorsement in an IPO. A legal IPO! As well, they could benefit from my block chain tech.
...

Miners do not have to register as MSBs. Please read the guidance. https://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/html/FIN-2014-R001.html The jury is very much out on Dash masternodes. How will the investors recover the funds from an IPO? If it is by emission then the IPO company is an MSB in the United States.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 20, 2016, 07:09:07 PM
 #12274

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.


A for profit company with closed source code controlling the initial key for a zerocash like currency is a regulatory nightmare.

No closed source. The key would be produced publicly at a ceremony.



Would this metadata and combinatorial analysis hold even if mixin 10 was a default on all tx's?

The meta-data (e.g. IP address, browser cookie, timing analysis and location of connection, what you said in facebook or on the phone, etc) correlation problem isn't likely impacted no matter how many times or inputs you ring mix. It is very difficult for mere mortals to cover their tracks on all the possible meta-data correlations. It is unfathomably difficult. Don't fool yourself into thinking it isn't.

The combinatorial analysis flaw (which I introduced to smooth during the BCX incident and hence followed up in debate with Shen-noether) is very theoretical and may or may not be plausible. In my thinking, it comes more into play if combined with meta-data breakdown of the anonymity systemically. Mixing more may help somewhat, but it can also make it worse because it is the excessive overlapping in mixes that causes the combinatorial unmasking.

In short, it is a clusterfuck (not a clean, clear, provable solution) and that is why I abandoned it.

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January 20, 2016, 07:11:10 PM
 #12275

...
All miners will have to register as money transmitters under FinCEN regulations, same as the issue for Dash masternodes. There has seriously bad implications in their investment strategy. But their code and developers are valuable. The investors can probably recover their money on the initial IPO. They should IPO the damn thing and do it legally and not mess with this "master of the universe" idea above.

I am contemplating contacting them, but I need to think through their economic options. It may be impossible to get them to do the right thing.

But they could definitely benefit from my endorsement in an IPO. A legal IPO! As well, they could benefit from my block chain tech.
...

Miners do not have to register as MSBs. Please read the guidance. https://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/html/FIN-2014-R001.html The jury is very much out on Dash masternodes. How will the investors recover the funds from an IPO? If it is by emission then the IPO company is an MSB in the United States.

My interpretation of FinCEN guidance is miners would have to register as MSBs if they are forced to transfer some of the coinbase to some other party. Just because it is enforced by the protocol, doesn't absolve the miner from (the legal culpability of) creating the block which created new supply and transferred it to a third party.

Disclaimer: IANAL.

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January 20, 2016, 07:18:16 PM
 #12276

...
My interpretation of FinCEN guidance is miners would have to register as MSBs if they are forced to transfer some of the coinbase to some other party. Just because it is enforced by the protocol, doesn't absolve the miner from creating the block which created new supply and transferred it to a third party.

Disclaimer: IANAL.

Yes this could very likely be the case with Dash, and a very valid point in that case; however it does not apply to coins such as Bitcoin or Monero where the miners can do as they please with the coinbase. When it comes to FinCEN and Dash one needs an army of lawyers on both sides to sort that out.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 20, 2016, 07:20:27 PM
 #12277

...

No closed source. The key would be produced publicly at a ceremony.
...

Using what operating system and firmware?

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 20, 2016, 07:26:06 PM
 #12278

The masterkey has to be produced in a way that no one knows it. The proposals had been to use a public ceremony and a computer examined by everyone attending, to be sure the masterkey is unknown to anyone.

Note if the masterkey is known, that person can create coins out-of-thin-air, but he can't unmask the anonymity. That is a crucial distinction.

This is why I proposed the idea of using Zerocash as a mixer that eventually times out, so that we can be sure the mixer hasn't created any new coins. Everyone going into the mixer takes the risk that they may not be able to come out of the mixer if the attacker has already created coins. Then we could have many of these mixers in a free market, and users would decide which mixers they trust. Again anonymity is never compromised and the run on the bank can only be a loss to participants, not to the entire ecosystem. I am pretty sure this solves the problem and this is why we can take their open source and beat them.

I am loaded with ideas and designs to solve real problems in crypto. Hopefully some smart devs are going to realize they are better off working with me.

I am aware of that. However, for an stand-alone altcoin creating coins out-of-thin-air is just as detrimental as unmasking the anonymity, because both will likely result in the coin dying.


RingCT has the same problem. I explained in I believe both the chess thread and my Zero Knowledge Transactions thread. This is another reason I abandoned it (in addition to the inability to get reliable anonymity since it doesn't hide meta-data the way Zerocash/Zcash does).


No it doesn't, because coinbase transactions are mixin = 0 in Monero and therefore you can check if the total supply hasn't been tampered with.

I don't think you should bet against them, because Zerocash has anonymity and nothing else does! The community will make sure it is peer reviewed. We must. You had better start figuring out how to transition and pronto.

I don't say I do. eb3f stated on reddit the following: "Monero uses ring signatures, as you may know, which is battle-tested and well-understood in the cryptography world and in practice". Even with community review it will take a long time to get to this state. I also don't agree with bolded here, but I won't go on a back-and-forth discussion with you over that.

I'll let others which are more knowledgeable comment on the metadata.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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January 20, 2016, 07:27:07 PM
 #12279

...

No closed source. The key would be produced publicly at a ceremony.
...

Using what operating system and firmware?

Of course they will need to convince the public the master key is sound. Or use my idea above of having multiple mixers and timing them out. I believe there is a solution, yet I will agree the current organization of their plans seems legally and structurally flawed.

That is why I say we can transition and beat them. But the technology is real anonymity. If you want real anonymity, you have to find a way to use their technology. Period. (and I have been studying this for a long time)

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January 20, 2016, 07:30:47 PM
 #12280

A for-profit coin company, i dont care what they make, iwill never trust them.

Agreed that is the opportunity to beat them by open sourcing their code. But you will also need my block chain technology to make the big win.

moreover RingCT will move Monero closer to Zcash

Sorry no. It is still not immune to meta-data and the theoretical combinatorial analysis. Not reliable. Not realistic.

We need to move forward. It is up to you, I know my thinking and priorities on this matter.


A for profit company with closed source code controlling the initial key for a zerocash like currency is a regulatory nightmare.

No closed source. The key would be produced publicly at a ceremony.



Would this metadata and combinatorial analysis hold even if mixin 10 was a default on all tx's?

The meta-data (e.g. IP address, browser cookie, timing analysis and location of connection, what you said in facebook or on the phone, etc) correlation problem isn't likely impacted no matter how many times or inputs you ring mix. It is very difficult for mere mortals to cover their tracks on all the possible meta-data correlations. It is unfathomably difficult. Don't fool yourself into thinking it isn't.

The combinatorial analysis flaw (which I introduced to smooth during the BCX incident and hence followed up in debate with Shen-noether) is very theoretical and may or may not be plausible. In my thinking, it comes more into play if combined with meta-data breakdown of the anonymity systemically. Mixing more may help somewhat, but it can also make it worse because it is the excessive overlapping in mixes that causes the combinatorial unmasking.

In short, it is a clusterfuck (not a clean, clear, provable solution) and that is why I abandoned it.

Please dont feed the trolls guys.

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