[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

...

Roger Ver is a self-serving used car salesman. For those in any doubt ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP1YsMlrfF0

Transcript: I'm Roger Ver, long time Bitcoin advocate and investor.
Today I'm at the Mtgox world headquarters in Tokyo Japan.
I had a nice chat with MTGOX CEO, Mark Karpeles, about their current situation.
He showed me multiple bank statements, as well as letters from banks and lawyers.
I'm sure that all the current withdrawal problems at MTGOX are being caused by the traditional banking system, not because of a lack of liquidity at MTGOX.
The traditional banking partners that MTGOX needs to work with are not able to keep up with the demands of the growing Bitcoin economy.
The dozens of people that make up the MTGOX team are hard at work establishing additional banking partners, that eventually will make dealing with MTGOX easier for all their customers around the world.  For now,  I hope that everyone will continue working on Bitcoin projects that will help make the world a better place.

His involvement with Zcash is a huge red flag for the ethics of the project

In fairness to Roger Ver my take is that he was duped. If one wants to scam a community with a strong Libertarian and Austrian Economics / Hard Money constituency I can see why making the US Government and the traditional banks the fall guys would make a lot of sense. Mark Karpeles played this game very well and fooled a lot of people out of their money.

Edit 1: As for Z.cash the biggest issue I see is not Roger Ver as a person but rather their using a portion of the emission to repay their investors, which could easily make Z.cash a centralized virtual currency under FinCEN regulations and the Zcash Electric Coin Company an MSB. Of course the guidance was published close to three years ago https://www.fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html but I am sure one can make the US Government the fall guy again when things go wrong. This did after all work for a while for Mark Karpeles.

Edit 2: Roger Ver went to great lengths to renounce his US citizenship so I would not be surprised if the Mark Karpeles spent a lot of time explaining to him how the "evil" US Government was behind the actions of the traditional banks.

None of which addresses the unethical statements and omissions in the bitcoin.com post about Zcash.

[ArticMine]

...
None of which addresses the unethical statements and omissions in the bitcoin.com post about Zcash.

https://news.bitcoin.com/meet-top-3-coins-cryptocurrency-anonymity-race/ is in reality a thinly disguised press release since Z.cash unlike Monero and Dash, has not been tested in any way by a market trading the actual currency. There is simply no objective basis to claim that Z.Cash is one of the top three.   

[smooth]

...
None of which addresses the unethical statements and omissions in the bitcoin.com post about Zcash.

https://news.bitcoin.com/meet-top-3-coins-cryptocurrency-anonymity-race/ is in reality a thinly disguised press release since Z.cash unlike Monero and Dash, has not been tested in any way by a market trading the actual currency. There is simply no objective basis to claim that Z.Cash is one of the top three.   

The content of such PR pieces is not unusual (if still highly biased), but I'm not aware of other cases where there is an explicit statement falsely claiming to be unaffiliated with the businesses [sic] mentioned in the article and at the same time deliberately excluding Roger Ver's name from the list of Zcash investors in the Wired article cited as a source.

That goes beyond even the usual level of hidden conflicts to explicit false statements and obviously selective omission.

[iCEBREAKER]

bitcoin.com

Stopped reading right there.  You know it's going to be misinformation from that point on.

[ArticMine]

...

The content of such PR pieces is not unusual (if still highly biased), but I'm not aware of other cases where there is an explicit statement falsely claiming to be unaffiliated with the businesses [sic] mentioned in the article and at the same time deliberately excluding Roger Ver's name from the list of Zcash investors in the Wired article cited as a source.

That goes beyond even the usual level of hidden conflicts to explicit false statements and obviously selective omission.

Disclaimer: Bitcoin.com is not affiliated with any of the above-mentioned businesses.

https://news.bitcoin.com/meet-top-3-coins-cryptocurrency-anonymity-race/ Yeah I missed the "disclaimer", but I see your point. Ouch!

[kurious]

FWIW the wall is back and is at 185.

Pushing out the last few weak hands before a violent break out upwards? Furthermore, selling volume is also declining which tells me the bears are running out of steam.

Hey - I hate to say it, but volume has declined on both sides.  It's about a third of what it was just a few days back.  And you can't say that of the two other coins ahead of us on Polo, sadly.   I hope we do break upwards, of course - but The t/o of ETH is so strong that it's plain there is no lack of funds in Polo just now.   I was expecting a rise up as BTC fell back - it seems it isn't happening just yet.

Am hodling a fair stash and in for the long term, still buying dips - but even nudging just under 0.002 would feel a hell of a lot better right now.

That's pretty normal for a retrace going into a consolidation. It also means buyers might have to move up their bids or marketbuy, because the sellers are getting exhausted. In other words, the amount of coins up for grabbing by simply putting bids is getting more scarce. Furthermore, I am kind of certain that volume will increase once we move upwards, because Poloniex traders will simply jump on it and "ride the wave".

With respect to TA:

-4h MACD is flipping into green.
-The short term downtrend line / triangle lies around ~180k (the upper line), so that might be closing soon.

Furthermore, there is still strong support in the 165k-170k, because (i) it has been tested multiple times on high volume and (ii) it's approximately the 61.8% retracement level from the surge of 120k to 246k.

EDIT: Some visualization:

Your optimism looks well-founded today.

XMR volume and price up, while ETH and DASH slipping. 

Nice.

[hiddensphinx]

support is looking healthy at 170.000 - 180.000 sats too 

[luigi1111]

In two years poof no more block reward

Incorrect.

You must be one of the three retards reward in Aug. 2018 1xmr..
You retards thought getting rid of the block reward fast is going to get you rich ? Nope, this shitcoin wont live to see 2018

Incorrect.

In Aug. 2018 reward per minute will be ~2 XMR.

Also, know your history.

Aug 30 2018 , block reward below 2xmr..
Is this the best you can do, play stupid? Who is going to secure the blockchain, miners sure won't, block reward will be almost non existant (bitcoin block reward wont drop this low until year 2100) and they sure aren't getting any xmr via tx fees (look at the blockchain today, two years after launch -  no transactions, empty blocks).

Who is the greedy bastard that came up with the emission rate? )

<2 XMR != "1xmr" sorry. Who's playing stupid? Maybe look in the mirror.

The history of things is quite public. It's quite hard to see it as a greedy choice in retrospect, looking at the (total lack of) pumps that have occurred.

Back to playing stupid: Bitcoin's block reward drops below 1 (0.78125) in ~2032, not 2100. For extra fun, note that Bitcoin has one block every 10 minutes, while Monero currently has one ever 1 minute. So in Aug. 2018, Monero will have ~20 XMR reward per 10 minutes, approximately the same as Bitcoin does *right now*.

Edit: or what smooth said. primer-, it's more fun to have arguments with someone who occasionally makes not-completely-absurd points. Try harder.

Hey can someone calculate when they will reach parity?  As in, the emission per 10 minutes will be the same?

The spreadsheet shows most of this stuff.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

Look on line 4495. Note that it assumes no penalties ever, so it won't be exactly correct.

Edit: all dates I found interesting are highlighted in green.

[dEBRUYNE]

https://twitter.com/flibbr/status/702537558836781056

He is followed by a lot of people/traders if I recall correctly.

[GingerAle]

In two years poof no more block reward

Incorrect.

You must be one of the three retards reward in Aug. 2018 1xmr..
You retards thought getting rid of the block reward fast is going to get you rich ? Nope, this shitcoin wont live to see 2018

Incorrect.

In Aug. 2018 reward per minute will be ~2 XMR.

Also, know your history.

Aug 30 2018 , block reward below 2xmr..
Is this the best you can do, play stupid? Who is going to secure the blockchain, miners sure won't, block reward will be almost non existant (bitcoin block reward wont drop this low until year 2100) and they sure aren't getting any xmr via tx fees (look at the blockchain today, two years after launch -  no transactions, empty blocks).

Who is the greedy bastard that came up with the emission rate? )

<2 XMR != "1xmr" sorry. Who's playing stupid? Maybe look in the mirror.

The history of things is quite public. It's quite hard to see it as a greedy choice in retrospect, looking at the (total lack of) pumps that have occurred.

Back to playing stupid: Bitcoin's block reward drops below 1 (0.78125) in ~2032, not 2100. For extra fun, note that Bitcoin has one block every 10 minutes, while Monero currently has one ever 1 minute. So in Aug. 2018, Monero will have ~20 XMR reward per 10 minutes, approximately the same as Bitcoin does *right now*.

Edit: or what smooth said. primer-, it's more fun to have arguments with someone who occasionally makes not-completely-absurd points. Try harder.

Hey can someone calculate when they will reach parity?  As in, the emission per 10 minutes will be the same?

The spreadsheet shows most of this stuff.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

Look on line 4495. Note that it assumes no penalties ever, so it won't be exactly correct.

Edit: all dates I found interesting are highlighted in green.

I'm in the wrong industry if its possible to land a window office in a high-rise with that level of mental flexibility. Dude probably makes 2-3X more than me ( sigh )

Anyhoo.. there seems to be a spate of these bitcoin ransom news articles popping up. My father enjoys sending these to me following discussions of the future of money and cryptocurrency. I speculate that these events don't paint this new money in a good light. Then again, I responded to his email with some factoids that the predominant use of the internet, since its mainstream integration, has been porn. Not that thats a good thing, but yeah.

So back to the bananas. We up? Down? Did the MacDaddy turn green and the shorts cover the longs?

It'll be nice in the so-close-we-can-smell-it future when this professional gambling will be somewhat limited due to the known and fixed money creation rate.

I wonder what the death throes of government-issued fiat will look like? I speculate that the canary in the coal mine for this event will be when either an ISP or power company accepts cryptocurrency for bill payments.

[americanpegasus]

I'm in the wrong industry if its possible to land a window office in a high-rise with that level of mental flexibility. Dude probably makes 2-3X more than me ( sigh )

It's very frustrating to know you're talented, yet watch boobs make 3x more than you - just like it is infuriating to watch things like ETH and MAID consistently hit crazy new highs on volume while XMR (which should be leading the pack) coasts. 
 
I've seen this story play out before though - an asset looks rosy, and some people think 'well, i'll just jump on that train for a bit.... I mean, I'm coming back, but why not soak in some of these gains first?' (FOMO).  Then that new asset tanks and XMR begins to skyrocket... while everyone who dipped out for a bit scramble frantically to get back in and lose on both sides of the trade. 
 
If there's one thing I've learned about myself its that my long term investing ideas are solid gold (1 year+) and my short term trading ideas are 99% garbage.  One must be honest with themselves about their strengths and weaknesses.

[smooth]

these [ransomware] events don't paint this new money in a good light.

It does show this new money is "good money".

I speculate that the canary in the coal mine for this event will be when either an ISP or power company accepts cryptocurrency for bill payments.

The canary in the coal mine will be when you start to see existing businesses that could easily accept conventional fiat not accepting it. Ransomware security audit services tell their customers "your stinky fiat is not wanted here" but only because they don't have a choice (ignoring fringe fiat methods such as the now-defunct Green Dot). When fiat users have a choice and start to walk away, the end is near.

[dEBRUYNE]

The 6h MACD is also flipping to green and the 12H might follow soon. Furthermore, the ask side looks rather flat. We might be gearing up for another try at that 235k-246k resistance zone.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I'm in the wrong industry if its possible to land a window office in a high-rise with that level of mental flexibility. Dude probably makes 2-3X more than me ( sigh )

It's very frustrating to know you're talented, yet watch boobs make 3x more than you - just like it is infuriating to watch things like ETH and MAID consistently hit crazy new highs on volume while XMR (which should be leading the pack) coasts.  
  
I've seen this story play out before though - an asset looks rosy, and some people think 'well, i'll just jump on that train for a bit.... I mean, I'm coming back, but why not soak in some of these gains first?' (FOMO).  Then that new asset tanks and XMR begins to skyrocket... while everyone who dipped out for a bit scramble frantically to get back in and lose on both sides of the trade.  
  
If there's one thing I've learned about myself its that my long term investing ideas are solid gold (1 year+) and my short term trading ideas are 99% garbage.  One must be honest with themselves about their strengths and weaknesses.

ETH brings something unique to the table and IMO doesn't compete with XMR at least directly.
Monero is more kind of BTC 2.0. A currency that aspires being as anonymous as possible.
The absolute weakness seems to be lack of marketing. It looks like the right people have not found Monero yet. However, without a wallet Monero is not that useful because the webwallet can be monitored (probably) by the hosts and therefore frozen in case of emergency like some kind of governement interference.

Dark markets should find Monero but I guess the wallet should be ready first. Based on emission there start to be high incentive to pump the price up also (when an entity owns a large stake of coins and the inflation is low a large owner obviously wants his slice to be as valuable as possible - that's also the strength and weakness of premined coins).

[smooth]

because the webwallet can be monitored (probably) by the hosts and therefore frozen in case of emergency like some kind of governement interference.

MyMonero coins can't be frozen because if MyMonero refuses to let you use them (or shuts down), you can import your private keys (via the seed) to another wallet.

Coins that are deposited on a centralized exchange can be frozen.

[Bassica]

It's starting to look very good for the bulls guys, strap on your seatbelts, we're in for a wild ride!

[BTKC]

It's starting to look very good for the bulls guys, strap on your seatbelts, we're in for a wild ride!

I tend to agree. I feel like as long as Monero has a smaller marketcap than dash it's undervalued. I feel lucky to have bought them as cheap as i did.. Now it's time to sit back and hodl

[dEBRUYNE]

It's starting to look very good for the bulls guys, strap on your seatbelts, we're in for a wild ride!

Hopefully. Btw, someone took out a ~6.5k short and subsequently placed it in the asks in front of 190k.

[boolberry]

It's starting to look very good for the bulls guys, strap on your seatbelts, we're in for a wild ride!

I tend to agree. I feel like as long as Monero has a smaller marketcap than dash it's undervalued. I feel lucky to have bought them as cheap as i did.. Now it's time to sit back and hodl

There is a very good chance the market cap for XMR will exceed DASH (for good) this year. The time of the GUI release or RingCT release seem like reasonable targets for this.  I am just sharing my opinion not making any recommendations.

[Nomad88]

It's starting to look very good for the bulls guys, strap on your seatbelts, we're in for a wild ride!

I really hope so. How much increase are you guys expecting?