Bitcoin Forum
May 25, 2022, 01:45:46 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 23.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 [1985] 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 ... 2183 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3301466 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
Bitcoinaire
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 695
Merit: 439



View Profile
November 02, 2018, 09:32:47 PM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #39681

There were a little over 12 million coins mined by January 1 2014 compared to 17,300,000 currently. Millions of more people are ready to buy and add to the mix institutional players and we could see new ATH's sooner than we think.
1653486346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653486346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653486346
Reply with quote  #2

1653486346
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1653486346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1653486346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1653486346
Reply with quote  #2

1653486346
Report to moderator
phishead
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1846
Merit: 818


Keep what's important, and know who's your friend


View Profile WWW
November 02, 2018, 10:18:36 PM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #39682

There were a little over 12 million coins mined by January 1 2014 compared to 17,300,000 currently. Millions of more people are ready to buy and add to the mix institutional players and we could see new ATH's sooner than we think.



██████████
█████████████████
██████████████████████
█████████████████████████
████████████████████████████
████
████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
███████████████████████████
██████
██████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
█████████████
██████████████
████████████████████████████
█████████████████████████
██████████████████████
█████████████████
██████████

Monero
XMR Open Alias: phishead@xmr.id
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016
kurious
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2548
Merit: 1617



View Profile
November 02, 2018, 10:20:32 PM
 #39683

There were a little over 12 million coins mined by January 1 2014 compared to 17,300,000 currently. Millions of more people are ready to buy and add to the mix institutional players and we could see new ATH's sooner than we think.

That's 3,700,000 Bitcoins left and it will take many years until most of what are remaining are available.

The market volume, in a market that is more than half Bitcoin is over $12,000,000,000 per DAY - and that is with the market at a low.

Half the market is a hell of a lot of cash swishing around - with only a relatively small number of coins remaining, which aren't even mined yet.  So any new demand must buy existing coins.

The price is not remotely sustainable beyond the short term.   In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

Sooner rather than later, this shit's going to blow.


我想要火箭和火车
Millionero
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 799
Merit: 419


View Profile
November 03, 2018, 01:08:48 AM
 #39684

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.
Globb0
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2660
Merit: 2029


Free spirit


View Profile
November 03, 2018, 09:23:06 AM
 #39685

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?

Millionero
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 799
Merit: 419


View Profile
November 03, 2018, 11:59:42 AM
 #39686

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?
"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."
LOL
Hey, by your logic, which requires taking Lindy totally literally, then Lindy must imply that nothing would ever survive past the first spark of creation.
But you needn't put any effort into accommodating concepts that don't immediately fit some naive expectations, if you don't so wish.
Taleb is worth reading.
kurious
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2548
Merit: 1617



View Profile
November 03, 2018, 12:54:54 PM
 #39687

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Yeah but 5 years ago it was finishing now by the same rule. So nonsense really?
"If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."
LOL
Hey, by your logic, which requires taking Lindy totally literally, then Lindy must imply that nothing would ever survive past the first spark of creation.
But you needn't put any effort into accommodating concepts that don't immediately fit some naive expectations, if you don't so wish.
Taleb is worth reading.

Hmm... by your logic, Bitcoin will always be half way through its life.

You might want to read Taleb again, I believe he did suggest factoring in the health of something, too - since as Globbo rightfully says; this simplistic view is logically nonsense.

What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become.  But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.

我想要火箭和火车
phishead
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1846
Merit: 818


Keep what's important, and know who's your friend


View Profile WWW
November 03, 2018, 02:28:18 PM
Merited by kurious (1)
 #39688

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.

You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived.  For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days.  Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

I think you have the wrong impression of what Bitcoin/Monero is if you are comparing Taleb’s hypothesis on that.  It’s a decentralized effort on the part of people that makes any crypto currencies successful. Bitcoin is still being tormented by the “politics” of Roger Ver & Co. while at the same time continually ignoring all the reasons why... and Monero is still achieving the feat of being able to fund developers on donations on the whim of whether people feel generous or not.

... I wouldn’t chalk up any real cryptocurrency projects to not have any “human-ness” about them at all.


██████████
█████████████████
██████████████████████
█████████████████████████
████████████████████████████
████
████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
████████████████████████████
██████
███████████████████████████
██████
██████████████████████████
█████
███████████████████████████
█████████████
██████████████
████████████████████████████
█████████████████████████
██████████████████████
█████████████████
██████████

Monero
XMR Open Alias: phishead@xmr.id
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016
XMR2020
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 45
Merit: 36


View Profile
November 03, 2018, 03:22:00 PM
Merited by BldSwtTrs (2)
 #39689


What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become.  But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.

Taleb specifically addresses robustness vs antifragility and they shouldn't be used interchangeably

Robustness is static durability. A concrete wall is more robust than a wooden fence. However, on a long enough timeframe, shocks large enough to destroy both structures are guaranteed and they have no mechanism to adapt, so they will be destroyed. The more robust structure can be expected to last longer. However, small shocks to the system won't improve it's expected duration. Intermittently hitting your concrete wall with a hammer won't improve its life expectancy.

Antifragility is a property of systems that specifically gain from disorder. Antifragile systems must have mechanisms for repair and adaptation. Biological evolution is the example. The culling of unfit individuals from populations by prior shocks to the system actually increases the resilience to unpredictable future stressors. Bone density is another example. Small shocks to your bones through controlled weight lifting will decrease your chances of long bone fractures to larger stressors.

Lindy does not mean bitcoin will only live another 10 years. Nor does it imply a symmetrical relationship (as is being suggested above). The most common example of the Lindy effect is in actuarial life expectancy tables. Your life expectancy is SHORTEST at birth. Every additional year you live, your life expectancy increases. For men in the United States, your life expectancy is 75.4 at birth but increases to 79 at age 50. Saying a male who lives 10 years is expected to live another 10 is a gross misunderstanding of the concept. Lindy simply means the life expectancy grows with time, by some unknown factor. Lindy applies most directly to memes, and has no application to strictly perishable good. Humans are partially perishable, so obviously, the lindy factor is much lower than for art or technology.
dEBRUYNE
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141


View Profile
November 03, 2018, 03:30:31 PM
 #39690

 In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
kurious
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2548
Merit: 1617



View Profile
November 04, 2018, 06:33:46 PM
 #39691

BTC going up and XMR going up with it - as are some of the other alts.

Ok, it could be temporary, but it feels pretty bullish after dips and endless sideways motion....  Is it going to be a pleasant November?

我想要火箭和火车
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3094
Merit: 3135


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
November 04, 2018, 07:00:28 PM
 #39692

BTC going up and XMR going up with it - as are some of the other alts.

Ok, it could be temporary, but it feels pretty bullish after dips and endless sideways motion....  Is it going to be a pleasant November?

I say YES. Smiley


Could you plz stop hyping yourselves up i want a few more months ok? tyvm Smiley

Seriously it's basically just pure glee at this point coming up with reasons to milk a clock for every spare additional fifteen minutes just so i can buy some fractional amount of monero every two weeks.

Yup, smart. I too have been trying to do the same for the last year.

@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


...shit I lost a big post...too lazy to redo it. Sad






“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Mihho
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 414
Merit: 100


View Profile
November 04, 2018, 07:10:36 PM
 #39693

I believe in this coin, and it seems to me that today is a good time to invest in Monero. I am sure that anonymous coins will be very much in demand soon. People want to keep online privacy.
KeyJockey
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 608
Merit: 509



View Profile
November 04, 2018, 09:08:52 PM
 #39694


@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


Heh... okay okay yah I disappear for almost a year then come back and can't fucking shut up, huh... LOL

Well it'll happen or it won't happen regardless of my whistling past the graveyard or screaming into the storm winds, right?  Heh...

Then, there's this, too... LOL



 Grin  Cheesy  Tongue 

- 1KeyJKVWVxdavKTetDJpQWdUaota5jbtX6 -
gulypz
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 462
Merit: 10

send and receive money instantly, w/no hidden cost


View Profile
November 04, 2018, 10:05:42 PM
 #39695

Monero is one of my most trusted projects in the future. I'm thinking of investing in the first opportunity. I wish I had known so long ago. We still have the opportunity to have a solid project.

Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3094
Merit: 3135


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
November 04, 2018, 11:46:03 PM
 #39696


@KeyJockey seems to just want to yell it from the rooftops. Tongue


Heh... okay okay yah I disappear for almost a year then come back and can't fucking shut up, huh... LOL

Well it'll happen or it won't happen regardless of my whistling past the graveyard or screaming into the storm winds, right?  Heh...

Then, there's this, too... LOL



 Grin  Cheesy  Tongue 

Hah, Great to see you posting!
Chart looks nice today. Smiley

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
tokeweed
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3234
Merit: 1201


Life, Love and Laughter...


View Profile
November 05, 2018, 01:01:40 PM
 #39697

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

███████████████████████████████
███████████████████████████████
███▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀███████████
█████████████▀▀        ▀▀██████
██████▀▀▀▀▀▀              ▀████
██████████▀     ▄▄██▄▄     ▀███
██████████      ██████      ███
██████████▄     ▀▀██▀▀     ▄███
██████▄▄▄▄▄▄              ▄████
█████████████▄▄        ▄▄██████
███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███████████
███████████████████████████████
███████████████████████████████
.
|.ROLLBOTS.|
████  ▄█████████▄▄▄████████
▀▀█▀▀     ▀▄▄     
███████████████      █          ▀▄   
██   █           ██ 
███          ▄▄███▄▄        ███
███     ▀▀▀▄▄▄▄███████████▄▄▄▄▀▀▀███
████      █████████████       ▀█
██   ███████████         █
███████████       █████████         █ 
█         █▄      ███
████████  █           ██████▀   
████▀▀     
██ ██████████████████  ▄▄▄▄█▀▀▀████████
▄▄▄███████▄▄▄
▄▄█████████████████▄▄
▄███████████████████████▄
███████████████████████████
███████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█████████
██████████▀▀▀▀        ▀████████
█████████████   ████   ████████
██████████▄▄▄▄        ▄████████
███████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█████████
███████████████████████████
▀███████████████████████▀
▀▀████████████████▀▀
▀▀▀███████▀▀▀
       RLB       
WHITEPAPER
RLB LOTTERY
..PLAY NOW..
generalizethis
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1750
Merit: 1035


Facts are more efficient than fud


View Profile WWW
November 05, 2018, 02:24:55 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2018, 03:59:47 PM by generalizethis
 #39698

In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.


By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.

Taleb mentions, if I recall correctly, the term "at least" / "minimum" for non-perishable stuff. Thus, following the Lindy effect, a non-perishable good that has existed for 10 years is expected to at least exist another 10 years.

Now, I suppose Bitcoin is technically an implementation of something non-perishable, which somewhat weakens the Lindy effect.

But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

scale of testing != best implementation

The bug recently found underscores that even BTC, with its obvious limitations, isn't flawless or vetted enough. Also, there's the well-known fact, at least in this neck of the woods, that Bitcoin's aim to be an "eletronic cash" hasn't panned out.

If you had one job to do and couldn't do it, would you consider yourself the best?

cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3290
Merit: 4095


----------bbl


View Profile
November 05, 2018, 06:13:19 PM
 #39699

scale of testing != best implementation

The bug recently found underscores that even BTC, with its obvious limitations, isn't flawless or vetted enough. Also, there's the well-known fact, at least in this neck of the woods, that Bitcoin's aim to be an "eletronic cash" hasn't panned out.

If you had one job to do and couldn't do it, would you consider yourself the best?


I tend to fall on the small block (at least for now) side of that argument, and believe bitcoin will find it's way in the end. 

Montero does an interesting job of pointing to a lot of possible solutions though...
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3094
Merit: 3135


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
November 05, 2018, 11:38:40 PM
 #39700


But we should also consider that BTC is still the best implementation of a cryptocurrency.  And if there was something that's gonna outlive every coin in the space, it's still gonna be BTC imho.

The rest haven't really been tested at the same scale that BTC has.

https://medium.com/s/story/the-domestication-of-cryptocurrency-acc832a0ad1c

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Pages: « 1 ... 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 [1985] 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 ... 2183 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!