Keefe
|
|
October 12, 2012, 01:00:31 PM |
|
Flip a coin 288 times. Will you get exactly 144 heads? Between 138 and 150 heads?
Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks. An increase in hashing can result in more blocks per day for a short period.
|
|
|
|
lukasbradley
Donator
Member
Offline
Activity: 90
Merit: 10
|
|
October 12, 2012, 01:08:46 PM |
|
Difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks. An increase in hashing can result in more blocks per day for a short period.
PERFECT. Exactly what I was looking for, thanks. Strangely, I couldn't find that on the WIKI.
|
|
|
|
flynn
|
|
October 12, 2012, 02:04:34 PM |
|
After reward halving, there is only 3600 BTC per day
What limits the number of coins mined per day? The protocol defines the difficulty to be exactly what it needs to be so one block is mined every 10 minutes. But that's on average... It could be more, it could be less. I get the point, its decent math for averages. But my point is there is no hard limit per day. It's a statistical limit driven by the difficulty and the network power (TH/s), it's pretty hard to me, in the sense that you have no control over these parameters and they will not let the limit wander very far from the theorical 6 blocks/hour (bell curve, etc) The only exception is when ASIC will come in play in the game : it will offset somehow that Bell curve and you'll be able to mine a few more coins per day for a while.
|
intentionally left blank
|
|
|
FrogBBQ
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
|
|
October 12, 2012, 02:29:46 PM |
|
You are talking about a few days at most since the difficulty is readjusted each time 2016 blocks (50,400BTC) have been mined. If you would have a sudden jump with a doubling in the network hash rate for example, which is bound to happen with the first ASIC wave, it would take for example 7 days instead of 14 to mined the 2016 block bitcoin. Immediately after this is reached, the difficulty will be adjusted to return to a 2016 block per 14 days.
The distribution will not be offset per se, we will just see a transfer of the bitcoin mining from the GPU/FPGA to the ASIC miners. Current estimates indicate that ~100-150TH/s (AVALON + BTCFPGA + BFL) of additional network hash rate will be added by Feb-Mar 2013 with the first ASIC wave making the bitcoin distribution ratio 9:1 in favor of ASIC (~45,500BTC) versus GPU/FPGA (~5,000BTC) mining. It is just a redistribution of the pie, nothing more.
|
|
|
|
dani
|
|
October 12, 2012, 03:54:55 PM |
|
With only a few asics you would Make a major part of the generated bitcoins. New everyone becomes insanely rich?
|
Hai
|
|
|
Jack1Rip1BurnIt
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks
|
|
October 12, 2012, 04:26:29 PM |
|
With only a few asics you would Make a major part of the generated bitcoins. New everyone becomes insanely rich?
Still a misconception. Don't forget about difficulty and reward halving. Price is also another variable.
|
Successful trades with bels, misterbigg, ChrisNelson, shackleford, geniusboy91, and Isokivi.
|
|
|
FrogBBQ
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
|
|
October 12, 2012, 04:43:30 PM |
|
...and there will be no scenario with just a few ASIC rigs. It will come by waves with BTCFPGA, BFL, and AVALON (most likely in this order). You will see many ASIC rigs firing in a short period of time as they are delivered and start mining immediately detected by the network overall harsh rate. Whoever is first will have a very marginal and temporary gain I would think.
|
|
|
|
flynn
|
|
October 12, 2012, 04:58:22 PM |
|
It will quickly stabilize to a point where ROI and efficiency of the most powerful devices are just about shitty and miserable.
A consequence of the 2nd law of thermodynamics, probably.
|
intentionally left blank
|
|
|
puck2
|
|
October 12, 2012, 05:03:19 PM |
|
Of course we cannot know, but I suspect that with reward halving, and more difficulty mining, there will be pressure on the only OTHER main way to get BTC in your wallet (aside from Silkroad and other exchange for goods)... exchange via fiat, hence exchange rate increases.
|
|
|
|
flynn
|
|
October 12, 2012, 05:10:48 PM |
|
it reminds me what they said during the gold rush : only the shovel sellers got rich, not the miners.
|
intentionally left blank
|
|
|
jjshabadoo
|
|
October 12, 2012, 05:20:40 PM |
|
Yeah, the gold rush analogy is fine, but remember that plenty of mining outfits did well also. It depends on your strategy and efficiency. You need competitive advantages and proper timing.
Also, people like get rich quick crap, especially the crew here which is naive enough to fall for ponzi's etc.
Those of us who are content with reasonable and consistent gains feel just fine mining as a hobby.
Hell, I've got several thousand dollars worth of paid off GPU's, motherboards, PSU's, watercooling equipment, etc. from my gpu mining farm.
Besides, Coinlab is going to be very profitable for GPU farms.
|
|
|
|
flynn
|
|
October 12, 2012, 05:24:31 PM |
|
Yeah, the gold rush analogy is fine, but remember that plenty of mining outfits did well also. It depends on your strategy and efficiency. You need competitive advantages and proper timing.
Also, people like get rich quick crap, especially the crew here which is naive enough to fall for ponzi's etc.
Those of us who are content with reasonable and consistent gains feel just fine mining as a hobby.
Hell, I've got several thousand dollars worth of paid off GPU's, motherboards, PSU's, watercooling equipment, etc. from my gpu mining farm.
Besides, Coinlab is going to be very profitable for GPU farms.
.. and fpga's .. and I find hypnotically relaxing to watch these bitcoins falling in my wallet all the time.
|
intentionally left blank
|
|
|
regular
|
|
October 12, 2012, 09:38:04 PM |
|
Bitcoins are still totally speculative at this point. Likely very few of us will get rich but most of us wont have total losses
|
|
|
|
cablepair (OP)
|
|
October 13, 2012, 12:11:56 AM |
|
Just wanted to let everyone know I apologize for not being around much last couple of days, my brother who lives in Colorado and whom I have not seen in 2 years surprised me by coming to down unexpected and letting us know he is engaged to be married Have been busy visiting, catching up and getting to know his wife to be I will get cracking on these emails now. Also I think I found a design team to get my new web site up and running quickly. Thanks to everyone who contacted me on this. Tom
|
|
|
|
creativex
|
|
October 13, 2012, 12:40:30 AM |
|
No worries, enjoy the downtime. I asked a Q a couple pages back, but I'll fire off an email at some point. Low priority stuff.
|
|
|
|
kano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4592
Merit: 1851
Linux since 1997 RedHat 4
|
|
October 13, 2012, 01:01:12 AM |
|
Bitcoins are still totally speculative at this point. Likely very few of us will get rich but most of us wont have total losses
If you were looking for a "get rich" method ... yes you are looking in the wrong place. Even Tom has to expend MUCH well timed effort to gain clearly hard earned good results. Those who make the right choices and expend enough effort with BTC can make good money - but "get rich" is very much a poor term to use in this situation due to the clearly incorrect connotations it implies.
|
|
|
|
PulsedMedia
|
|
October 13, 2012, 01:10:58 AM |
|
what bad things?
I have used them for various things over the years and I have never had a problem with downtime. Godaddy used to be a pain with certain things because of their proprietary system makes certain types of web site setups difficult to setup - however they have improved it significantly over the years. Personally I have never had even one of my godaddy sites experience any kind of down time and I have several.
GoDaddy was supporter of SOPA, they only backed out of it because of the huge backlash. As a hosting professional for 12-13 years now, GoDaddy is in my books one of "those trendy, fashion things", not necessarily good, but it's trendy "because everyone has it". That being said, it's better than most of the large webhosts, like dreamhost and bluehost who oversell like crazy, provides practically no support. If i were you i'd choose a cloud and operate a VM from there, which constantly, via secure tunnel, backups the DBs etc., maybe in a master<>master config. Then again, i don't do that myself, i'm perfectly happy with simple DDoS protections etc. basic stuff for a dedicated server. almost no downtime during couple of years to speak of. NEVER EVER go with bluehost or dreamhost. Yes, i know, i'm again late to the party! grr
|
|
|
|
Dusty
|
|
October 13, 2012, 08:18:12 AM |
|
NEVER EVER go with bluehost or dreamhost. I agree I'm a bit late too but I suggest the use of gigahost: https://www.giga-international.com/?show=vserverwith 40€/month you get 4 cores, 12GB (!!) of ram, 600G of disk, and great support too! I've been unable to find a better deal yet.
|
|
|
|
dani
|
|
October 13, 2012, 12:49:19 PM |
|
I See it in another way. Its ans oppertunity. I will stick To it
|
Hai
|
|
|
cedivad
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
|
|
October 13, 2012, 01:15:52 PM |
|
NEVER EVER go with bluehost or dreamhost. I agree I'm a bit late too but I suggest the use of gigahost: https://www.giga-international.com/?show=vserverwith 40€/month you get 4 cores, 12GB (!!) of ram, 600G of disk, and great support too! I've been unable to find a better deal yet. Please don't.I know who they are, and how they operate. If you want additional downtime go with them. I also suggest the VM on a cloud environment idea. AWS EC2 should do it. Take a east cost instance, so that you fit both US & EU. Their micro instance is also part of their free tier program, so you can have free hosting.
|
My anger against what is wrong in the Bitcoin community is productive: Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)Hashfast.org - Wiki for screwed customers
|
|
|
|