ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Vycid]

Uh, I actually am not a technical trader, and I have never played a short-term movement on AM. I don't know how many times I have to say it: my issue with AM is with its fundamentals, not its share price momentum. I was bearish long before AM started going down (that's how I own options - people were willing to sell them to me).

But none of this changes the fact that the previous strong support at 2.4 evaporated in all of 5 minutes. I may be a fundamental investor but I'm not blind. (You are right, however - it did belong in the speculation thread.)

And happy friedday   those dividends were quite strong.

i haven't read your posts recently, but i don't know what's the problem with the fundamentals?

my 2 satoshis to situation right now:
btc value goes up, share value corrects down
on top divs go low -> weak shareholders nervously sell and invest in other companies.
competition mining and hardware-wise is growing, lot of new ipos right now making promises until asics are delievered and running.
and finally demand for 2nd gen hardware is knocking at the doors.

AM stands in between this mayhem as a half mining half hardware selling company.
Friedcat has done quite good until now and has lot of experience in both sectors.
because he doesn't take preorders he's not forced to throw out much information about next generation plans like all the others that make their profit with the naive faith of their consumers  
(BFL really took the cake with the action to change long overdue orders to that monarch card and wait again for some months - Do people even realize that AM is the only company that doesn't require these risky interest-free loans in advance ).

Mining market in the longterm will probably split into some big mining companies with expensive setups and high energy consumption and on the other side we'll see the mining sector for "consumers" that needs cheap, small and user-friendly plug&play asics for their homes. (block erupters are a good example for this)
that consumer-market is where AsicMiner has the best reputation until now and if we see more adaption of btc this sector will keep on booming.

it feels to me like the beginning of digital era all over again apart from the mining game (Intel, IBM, AMD, DELL, Apple etc.). two or three main chip manufacturers, a lot of companies bulding asics and selling them (some going high-end, some endconsumer) and a few monopolistic mining companies that are equally balanced with endconsumer mining (at least i hope so).

i have no clue which companies from today will still exist in 2 or 3 years but imo AM still has a more than average chance to pull it off when i look at the chaotic market we have today.


of course all of this is pure speculation, so feel free to correct me if i went over the top or misinterpreted some aspects.

Here's a selection of my (relatively recent) posts on AM. Oldest to newest down the list.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2955785#msg2955785
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2969164#msg2969164
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984672#msg2984672
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059608#msg3059608
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059938#msg3059938
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3060226#msg3060226

Obviously many of these are structured as conversations, so you may need to follow the links to the original posts.

[hlynur]

Here's a selection of my (relatively recent) posts on AM. Oldest to newest down the list.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2955785#msg2955785
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2969164#msg2969164
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984672#msg2984672
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059608#msg3059608
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059938#msg3059938
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3060226#msg3060226

Obviously many of these are structured as conversations, so you may need to follow the links to the original posts.

ehm okay...no response to my thesis whatsoever
well i read through most of your comments and after all your criticism I really have to ask why are you investing in this company? 

please give me just some short headwords on what friedcat should concentrate to change things to your satisfaction?

for me one of the most underestimated fundamentals with AM compared to other companies is the mentality not to take preorders.
every other asic company made money because they promised hardware even if they couldn't deliever it in time.
by contrast every product that friedcat releases is selled out within weeks just because it is in stock, ready to deliever and gives a miner guaranteed timeframes to calculate with.
this fact distorts every comparison to other competitors.

sideline question: Are you invested in other companies?

[Vycid]

Here's a selection of my (relatively recent) posts on AM. Oldest to newest down the list.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2955785#msg2955785
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2969164#msg2969164
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984672#msg2984672
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059608#msg3059608
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059938#msg3059938
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3060226#msg3060226

Obviously many of these are structured as conversations, so you may need to follow the links to the original posts.

ehm okay...no response to my thesis whatsoever
well i read through most of your comments and after all your criticism I really have to ask why are you investing in this company?  

please give me just some short headwords on what friedcat should concentrate to change things to your satisfaction?

for me one of the most underestimated fundamentals with AM compared to other companies is the mentality not to take preorders.
every other asic company made money because they promised hardware even if they couldn't deliever it in time.
by contrast every product that friedcat releases is selled out within weeks just because it is in stock, ready to deliever and gives a miner guaranteed timeframes to calculate with.
this fact distorts every comparison to other competitors.

sideline question: Are you invested in other companies?

Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

[hammurabi]

Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

I think Vycid is one of more intriguing characters here.
I personally think he is gauging towards shareholders sentiment.
At least that would explain persistence in the effort.

At the very beginning he was accused of FUD. Which indicated clearly "hype" type of state of shareholder's sentiment, thus price is rather high.
Now we we see some people who "switched side" and agree with him, thus indicate that they most likely sold out and are potential buyers in the near future.
I think he waits for more people to reveal bearish sentiment which will lead to conclusion that everybody sold out, thus all what is left is buying power.

[supert]

Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

I think Vycid is one of more intriguing characters here.
I personally think he is gauging towards shareholders sentiment.
At least that would explain persistence in the effort.

At the very beginning he was accused of FUD. Which indicated clearly "hype" type of state of shareholder's sentiment, thus price is rather high.
Now we we see some people who "switched side" and agree with him, thus indicate that they most likely sold out and are potential buyers in the near future.
I think he waits for more people to reveal bearish sentiment which will lead to conclusion that everybody sold out, thus all what is left is buying power.

i think Vycid is a narcissistic troll who happened to be right about a couple of things. He promised to reduce the post count; he hasn't so is back on ignore.

I predicted .014 just because It gives 30% yield at current price. That's all that's setting the price.

Below 2.5, am is cheap.

[philipma1957]

I think Vycid can't possibly know the future. To predict that AM will never go above 3 btc is easy to predict impossible to guarantee.

 If AM has a better usb stick on the market before the holidays they would be boosted in price. If AM puts up 50th more hash power they would be boosted in price. If AM sells a better blade by black friday they would be boosted in price.

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.
 AM may not increase hashpower.
 AM may not sell a better stick or a better blade in the near future. ie 2013 no better gear .

 How the f does Vycid know any of the above info?

[tinyfox266]

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.

Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?

[philipma1957]

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.

Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?

I have only read the number online not on knc's site.

[Lauda]

Let's crash the price and buy back in? 

[Vycid]

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

[101111]

ha ha, magic over math 

[TheSwede75]

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

Shares traded on BTCT.CO represent >10% of AM share base. Who cares, at 30% 12 months dividend I'm perfectly fine with just moth-balling my few shares. If AM actually rolls out Gen 2 to the tune of 1/5th of the network in the next 2 months anything under 3 BTC is cheap anyway.

[ex-trader]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

[TheSwede75]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

[bitsalame]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

[eastpk]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

I'm fairly certain rockxie was at a China btc meetup and he was presenting this slideshow here talking about asicminer.

I know rockxie is very close with FC but we actually never heard anything from him on this.

EDIT: Looks like I am wrong - this looks like it may have been an interview with FC himself.

[xchrisxsays]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?

[eastpk]

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.

While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?

It doesnt look like it... I think its a good thing that they are holding back dividends because they are planning to exponentially increasing the amount of Gen 2 devices. Perhaps this is what they will use to achieve the 1000Th 

[bitsalame]

Alright, I'm buying more shares lol
Hello 5, we'll meet again.

[hcburger]

Friedcat in the latest update:

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

Any idea what "exponentially increased devices" means?
Does this mean they're planning on assembling a large number of "old" devices?
Or does that mean that they're planning to assemble some form of better devices ("gen1.5")?
Or even gen2 chips (this I doubt, since the plan was November at the earliest)?