Not sure about that. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205744.msg2182419#msg2182419

What do you think about the big decrease in sell pressure on Gox, and the big increase in sell pressure on Bitstamp? I'm not sure about the other exchanges.



Have you turned bullish in the short and/or medium term?

If someone in the US wants fiat and is worried about Gox's immediate future, they may not want incoming wires coming from Gox. The intermediary bank accounts in the US could be ripe for seizure. Now, I'd like to think that Gox would make it right if some bank accounts got taken, but one can't be sure. Personally, I've been screwed twice by offshore payment processors (Usemywallet and ewalletxpress), who, when "my cashouts" were seized by the feds, basically said "fuck off, we don't have your money" and cut off communication. Not the same situation, but not so different.

Not easy getting USD out of BTC-E. And Bitstamp sell pressure is scary as hell right now. This looks pretty iffy.

If the feds can show cause that US laws are being broken (eg in regards to US residents), and are dealing with a country with whom they share cooperation agreements that cover asset forfeiture (i.e. many countries), then yes, they likely do.

As of 2003, the US and Japan share a formal mutual legal assistance treaty that covers "fraud and white collar offenses." http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2003/August/03_ag_443.htm

Pursuant to such a treaty, the US can make formal mutual legal assistance requests in order to have assets frozen/seized under Japanese jurisdiction.

More on international cooperation in asset forfeiture:
http://apps.americanbar.org/rol/publications/asia_raca_apec_asset_forfeiture.pdf
http://www.irs.gov/irm/part9/irm_09-007-010.html#d0e49

More likely, IMO, if the feds want to crack down on Mt Gox, they will continue targeting its US banking intermediaries.

All the altcoins need a nice healthy drop in price.

Yeah, pretty much.

Lots of big assumptions ITT 

I just don't see how anything follows from #1. You say that bitcoin's value is not directly proportional to the price. If you see value as subjective, then price here is the aggregate of the subjective valuations that individuals place upon it. Nothing more, nothing less.

Do you see value as subjective, or don't you?

wat

Bitcoin is not the only way to keep money safe from the US government. In fact, Gox should have begun by not incorporating in fucking Japan. They should have established their exchange on a country code top-level domain instead of .com. Then once they started printing money, they should have used it to hire competent counsel. Bunch of morons...

They can't predict the future. VCs have dropped virtually nil into bitcoin. Complete drop-in-the-bucket, easy exit shit. I don't understand why people think "all this money" is being invested. It isn't. Investing 6 figures, or a few million, is a cheap price to pay if the future turns sour.

Don't be so quick to write this off..... this was likely just the simplest possible way to go after Gox. It doesn't follow at all that the feds don't have their sights on bitcoin generally, nor that we have seen the end of this in re to Gox, other exchanges or other operators like Bitpay for instance. Don't get all irrationally exuberant up in here! Wait and see, IMO.

Our government was always rogue. They have murdered countless millions of people, and no one does a thing. Attacking bitcoin? No one is going to give a shit.

Highly doubt it.

Even if Gox went bankrupt as a result of seizures, you'd still likely be able to apply for remission... and get paid out a small percentage of what you were owed.....years later.  


Doesn't matter. If the feds take the position that Gox is violating US laws, seizure of their domains is entirely plausible. It is too early to say what will happen.


Indeed, we can't speculate that this ends here. It is very plausible that this is the tip of the iceberg.

Of course! Just as I thought this wedge was going to break down....



..... now it's probably going to break upwards! Good old gox lag.

Kind of having a difficult time twisting this into something so positive..... no, I don't see it.

Banks, with or without agency/court actions, are the weak link. Wasn't Bitfloor's bank account shut down directly by Capital One (no court order)? And they were registered with FINCEN.

This same thing happened after UIGEA. Create a legally controversial / high-risk situation for banks (who don't like servicing MSBs in the first place, let alone those who are perceived to have the eyes of federal agencies on them), and watch what happens. Many may become fence-sitters, waiting for the situation to play out and leaving the market to shady high-margin payment processors.

In such a case, money in/money out is much slower and higher risk. People want liquidity. If prospective buyers perceive inability to easily move fiat <--> bitcoin, that's a huge threat to growth. And it's a longterm threat until the US government makes it exceedingly clear that it will not target fiat <--> bitcoin operators and their banks.

Dunno, we'll see.



Wouldn't be buying back at a loss, though.