So looking at the last bubble we could go under 1k  I think $1200-1500 will hold. Below 1k means something has gone seriously wrong, and would be a sell-out signal. The next few months is a time of very high risk, with falling hashrate. Even a half-successful 51% attack would cause massive reuptational damage. Assuming survival of BTC (likely), the next year or two is going to be tough, and many of todays posters will be gone. I can only recommend Hodlers to write-off the value (for peace of mind), and find something else to occupy their thought processes. |
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Well, should probably go without saying, I rescind my offer of throwing a $100k party, if/when the milestone is achieved. If I've fucked up an intended good-faith beer offering in this thread so badly due to bad planning/foresight on my part or whatever, I have no business pondering more grandiose "events". Not to mention the considerable scorn I have accrued, bearing down upon me, is beginning to weigh heavily on me.
All my calls have turned out to be contrarian, looking back through the lens of retrospection.
I offer nothing of value to this thread.
I should just delete this account and get on with life in meatspace...
You are not serious ? Come on, hang in here. It's tough, but your contribution is valued by many posters.. FWIW, over 5 years, I have seen a lot of posters reach this stage. Many recovered their mojo. |
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Not sure if this was already posted, please don't kill the messenger as i don't agree with lots of these points. However, this shows where institutional investors (aka hedgies) are on this. https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1068573163670261760In short: institutionals are shell-shocked and bewildered. My take home message: small size institutional money will not participate from now on. TL;DR she predicts that, similarly to how internet happened, blockchain will eat the world, but somehow traditional players (Fidelity, Paypal, etc) would be the winners and we would be the losers. I disagree, obviously. There's a lot of negative predictions and news stories about Bitcoin around. IMO it's bullish and indicates we are close to the bottom. There are also a lot of positive sentiments as well, so the bottom could be temporary. This bear market needs a lot more time to play out (rather than price pronouncements) |
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2900$ is the last support that could very likely not hold, and should it not then we can easily go to 3 digits again.  I dont see support at 2900. But certainly above 1000. At 3 digits, BTC is failing as a project. Possible but unlikely. I would estimate that $1500 needs to hold, and I expect it to do so, some time in late 2019. |
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I am not sure about ETH bottom since it was less than $10 at the beginning of 2017 while BTC was around $1000.
If BTC actually reaches $1000, then it will take a long time to recover because we are talking about a 95% loss from ATH. Most venture capitalists who poured huge money into crypto in 2017 will be wiped out and out of the game. There will be little growth and investments and many won't buy BTC in the future because "What if it crashes 95% again".
Same with ETH, I don't see it hitting $10 ever again but I also don't believe $100 could be the bottom, maybe around $75 or so.
The toughest issue is not going to be the low print price, but the time taken to recover, as you say. Around the beginning of this year my own estimate for the next BTC low was $1500 (just above the previous-but-one high) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29705489#msg29705489Back in Feb , I envisaged a low of $100 for ETH , but it could be $50 even. The recovery is likely to take longer than in 2015-6, because looking at the charts you can see the adoption waves flattening out over the long term. Not a pleasant thought, but this CryptoWinter might last through to 2022. |
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If I've accumulated something over the last few years, is that anything is possible.
It's crypt-o-mage-don. Few will survive through this, only to make room for the true believers.
A realistic, if very unpopular view. There is still a lot of hope around, and this bear market has a lot of work to do. Could be another 2 years before the real recovery. I am not entirely convinced that institutional money will be entering at the lows however. More likely to be trend-following. |
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People that consider blockchain inevitably successful and consider cryptocurrencies doubtful simply don't know what they're talking about! They don't understand that a blockchain without built-in cryptocurrency is nonsense from economic point of view!
Well, yes, could be, but does it not depend on the purpose of the particular ledger ? The actual future ROI in any one Blockchain project is what I was referring to. |
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A solid piece, but why are we languishing at $4K, then? From my perspective, bitcoin always does something least expected. In the summer of 2017 I was afraid that a split would be very difficult to digest. Instead, we moved from $1K almost straight to 20K. I was expecting correction, but i wasn't "really" expecting a 83% plunge that is definitely NOT typical for $200 bil value assets, unless it is a commodity like sugar. I expected smarter minds in finances (WS) picking up crypto because there is no other way out of the current economic predicament. They got to realize this at some point. However, lately, reading upon all horrible stories about environmental destruction (read on insect apocalypse, for example-it is all true as I have my own life observations confirming this OR testosterone levels reduction going on for several generations already), I start to think that maybe we, humans, set ourselves on some kind of a suicide path. If that is the case, ignoring crypto (as a salvation) is EXACTLY what doomed societies are going to do. Maybe a Great Filter (of Fermi's paradox fame) is not behind, but right in front of us. Count me ( at the moment) as disappointed. All good points. Blockchain will certainly disrupt many industries, and therefore can be considered inevitably successful. However the value of Cryptocurrencies is a complicated matter. Because Blockchain disintermediates agencies, and distributes much of their profits to the end user (who was ultimately paying), the opportunities for profit from Blockchain are relatively small. Put another way, the profit from a decentralised system is difficult to centralise. It is by definition, distributed. Cryptocurrency value is derived mainly from speculative activities, and is by no means assured into the future. |
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Don't you think if the weekly candle closes around this level ($4K+) in a few hours that would be a bullish signal in itself?
Yes I do. [...] A reversal from here - a real reversal - could be mean and with 'mean' I mean towards $8,000+ ..or a continuation of the trend (statistically always most likely at any given time) , could be mean : towards $2000. So take your guess... or provide some supporting evidence. We may not have proper confirmation until 2020. |
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Even if this possible scenario were to come true, wouldn't there be a way to profit from such scenario, rather than going away for "a couple of years"?
Wouldn't we want to attempt to buy more on the way down to the bottom in early to mid 2019? And of course, there might be other actions that can be taken, too.
Yes, thats the theory. Very few ppl would be able to successfully call the right timings and price. ..but good luck to anyone that goes for it. Not tying to put ppl off, just pointing out that passive hodling is the safe strategy: you only have to make one correct call , and that is 'The price of BTC is still in a long term uptrend' (could just possibly be wrong, but the odds are at least in your favour). The reality is that only a minority actually make much profit from trading, most is made from hodling. |
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The bottom is not in.
This isn’t about price, it’s about time. We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market.
We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019. I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price.
Very good thinking. Most ppl concentrate on price, and it is important to get away from the herd ideas. If bottom is in early/mid 2019, that would put the next high around 2021-2. Hunker down is in order. Better to find something else to think about for a couple years ! |
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I think this uptrend is just temporary.
The next 10 days will be critical... it could crash again imho.
I think the last 12 hours have been a piss poor performance by the bulls. Yes it is a very weak recovery, considering the speed of the downside. That would indicate that the downtrend is still firmly in place. Maybe a new range 3500-4200 before a fresh low early next year ? The only caveat is that it is really too early after the drop to make any even tentative pronouncements. |
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Going by that comparison, another year until we get above 4000 again, with a bit more downside first. |
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If this isn't capitulation, I dont know what is
...
Thousand dollar down 1 hour candle with massive volume. Now its getting into the range I was guessing at back in January. Assuming that BTC is going to survive as the dominant crypto (which I guess is axiomatic for everyone on WO thread) 3k must be near the low for this wave. If its 2k handle, then that is not such a long way off. Any hodlers that can stand 3k , can stand 2k, they have been through the downwave. The tough bit now is going to be the long wait (and it will be long) before the next real upwave. Was only a few weeks ago posters were declaring 6400 as the support. Now we would be fortunate to see that level again before the end of next year. |
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4000$ does not seem to hold for long.
BCH needs to bleed out first, then we can go up again.
If BCHABC & BCHSV would both die that’d be great yeah but the assholes running them have deep pockets I think BCH hashwar is just a sideshow for BTC. The way I see it, this Bear Market was destined to take its course. Trigger events seem to be causes but they are merely catalysts. Looking at the long term chart, I still see exactly what I saw back in January. A high likelihood of a 2014-17 long bowl formation. The first stage has to be reaching a bottom, it is is by no means certain we have done that yet, and it has only been 11 months since the ATH. The good news is there is plenty of time to dribble in purchases (perhaps a monthly basis ?). OCICBW, but better to see the realistic scenarios and plan for those primarily. |
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O.k. We read differently, and I don't concede that a previous pattern implies the next pattern either in duration nor in intensity... especially when the way up was different in this 2017 one, too. In other words, you cannot just begin from the downward point, you have to consider both the upwards slope that got to the top and the downward slope, not just one side of it.
All charts are hidsight of course. IMO their main usefulness is in telling us why/how a particular price move happened. My own methodology starts with the premise that a Bear Market has a job to do. That job is to shake out the weak hands. The higher the previous rise, the harder the job will be ,hence the use of % retracements etc (which are flawed anyway). How the weak hands are shaken out is a combination of circumstance. The BCH/SV debacle is merely one of those random circumstances : the fall was due anyway. In fact, better to get it over with, deep , sharp and quick. Slow attrition is harder to recover from. In BTC terms this is not a crash. $2000 next week is a crash. So I kind of agree with you, the jury is still out . They never really reach a verdict until its all over. |
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I think that CSW asshole shorted the market big time before engaging in the ridiculous war against Ver/Jihan. He always knew he couldn't win.
I hope so. That would mark a proper bottom (but be prepared for the plunge to intensify first). Shorts eventually have to be closed. |
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If this drops much further, I am going to have to concede that we are in a 2014 scenario rather than a 2013 scenario...
What ? You really still think the 2013 scenario is possible ? I know we read the charts differently, but surely the 2014 was already confirmed by the length and shape of the downtrend ? This latest plunge just hammers it home. I want to see a bounce, I hope for recovery soon, but the realist in me is hunkered down for a 3 year winter. |
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Are we literally going to $0
Most unlikely. Some alts are, of course. This is merely a step in the bear market. At least it confirms which pattern we are in. The downtrend is still intact. I was certainly prepared for this, but it is still uncomfortable. The worst part is knowing that there may not be a recovery for a year or two. There is long term support at $1500-$2000, but I would not expect it to get there before the middle of next year. |
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You can't really compare the two bear markets, because the timescales dont match, and the price movements are completely different. If you do make a proper comparison, the 2014-5 market did not bottom until 18 months in: that would indicate a further downward leg in 2019. I don't think that will happen. |
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