I agree...but the real rubber meeting the road issue is when BTC gets back to the ATH and the whales start dumping a bit for real-life issues...this may actually

accelerate if in a deep recession...

Whales will sell a significant amount of BTC someday...simply because they got it at sub 100 prices likely and what the heck....can't take it with you...

if/when that happens and is 'digested' some..then perhaps 'BTC would pump even more, but to think that someone is gonna keep 100 million in BTC now

when, the whale's hoard, hits 200 million...well after awhile..those sized whales will just cash out as they perceive they need it..rather than worrying about the real world

price issues anymore or hoarding BTC....they will be way past such considerations. However, if I'm correct ( who the hell knows) the BTC price and infrastructure will have

to absorb such 'sell' action and get them whales like a pig through a python ...out the door and then with BTC more distributed, BTC may be more decentralized and less

affected by large whales..but first, the whales, will have to move some of $$$ to real-world $$$ or just continue to HODL..but there is some kinda BTC price that most

whales, IMHO, will break at, if they got BTC as say sub $100....that price could be 15k or 150k I don't know...but it does exist....and quite frankly once done would resolve

a lot of the volitility in BTC/USD price IMHO. But what do I know, I'm just bored and posting on bitcointalk.

I still don't buy it. IF China was to use GOLD to back its new crypto, then it would massively undermine the worth of its paper currency.

The safe thing for China to do is to just back the new crypto with Yuan itself. That way they can manipulate it like a regular currency yet still 'claim' it is crypto.

With Hong Kong going to 'likely' get a bloody crackdown this is all kinda moot anyway. No reason to launch as state sponsored crypto-currency if all heck is gonna

break out in traditional money markets because of Hong Kong. Would just drag the new crypto down on launch with the Yaun if that happens, IMHO.

anyway, they likely will launce such before the USA or anyone else a crypto-currency...so we will see.

Brad

edited out a mistake quote

Some of them are fine/but you have to look for the right place. I myself always like the Dorm's in University and have friends who work in Nursing Homes, so being a practical

communist, at least about communal living, I have no issues with such a place. Assisted Living is the best option...but eventually, if you live long enough, it is the Nursing Home or Home Health

Care.

Of course when our Alien Overlords from Space land to take over the planet Earth on the evidence we don't know how to run the place..this will all be moot!

Brad

Also for some of us, it is not a matter of price. (kinda I lie a bit, current price 'stings' compared to ATH).

So to HODL, you have to have a 'specific' outlook and or means to HODL, so all this price variation and supposed 'beanie baby' money by some, does not drive you too crazy!

I have no debt, other income from investments retired on such, not using crypto hoard for any of this, since mining stopped. My house just got fixed up, emergency fund,

no credit card debt, 30K I can borrow of Home Equity Load if it all goes to heck...etc. When I look at the world today, I see have run out of 'coping mechanisms' with the

above done. Lately, I've been thinking about what to do besides above and BTC HODL to placate 'coping mechanisms' I've used over time. (my safety blanket) Take up canning

of goods? Build a Bunker? hmmmm....sorry I digress...

The other thing I have is I'm 64 years old. IF I don't follow through on my kool-aid drinking dreams of BTC/Crypto, I'm only likely to live another 21 years say anyway.

So with that it is easy to hodl. If I was in my 20's it would be damn near impossible for me to do this. Just saying, perspective matters. So with the above, makes my HODL'ing

'kinda what the f*ck, let's see what happens), anyway, at this point in time. The next ATH comes around I could crack like a nut, but how I look at all this now.

Besides Boom/Bust or Chump/Champ when they stick me in the Nursing Home someday, I'll have great stories to tell. The currency of Nursing Homes is 'stories' and

whatever happens BTC/Crypto has been a doozy!

later

Brad

I usually post at least 7-8 posts a day anyway, so I don't sweat a bump post or whatever. (I have no life obviously).

So, IMHO, just post normally but add a buffer of a couple of posts. Otherwise, I'd change my posting habits and be asking myself, did this count or did that count...

so I just try to stick to what I've always done. It has stopped me from my 'lack of a life' 10 posts or more I used to do a day out of boredom, before the campaign

....so probably 6-7 posts is what I always should post on bitcointalk, campaign or not. Whatever, I'm weird.

later

brad

The only process I would buy miners would be the following:

1) If the 25% USA Tariff goes away.

2) I SHOULD be accumulating BTC/Crypto. I don't seem to get around to doing what I should and just BUYING the damn stuff. Thus I am NOT accumulating

at this point in time, and if I really have drunk the kool-aid and Bitcoin will repeat to its ATH, well, I'm just screwing myself over by having no damn structure

and discipline to just set some $$$ aside before I whimsically blow it on something else. I've been down this path before, been in BTC/Crypto since 2013. So I

know what I should do, don't seem to do so.

So, being that spineless and letting 'probably' low prices BTC/Crypto 'slip' through my fingers and 'regretting' such 'massively' a year o so down the road.

(been there done that, at least 2x since 2013).

I COULD if the condition number (1) went away above, the 25% tariff, just break down and BUY a damn miner on the hope it will ROI, and just pay for the electric

for say 6 months in advance..and even if I'm dead wrong and I lose 25% vs buying the BTC/Crypto...AT LEAST I'D BE ACCUMULATING BTC/CRYPTO AT THESE 2019

PRICE LEVELS.

So what would be 'expensive' in accumulation now in buying a miner and electric (no tariff of 25%) now AT A LOSS, if BTC/Crypto survives in the 5-year future as

we all hope, and I overpaid NOW by 25% what the F*ck diference will it make, in that, I added to the hoard, now, rather then, massive regrets in 5-years on my spineless not having cash

month to month due to frivolous buys of capitalistic junk, I seem to blow through each month and then go 'damn' I should have cut back on the toys and shoulda/coulda bought the coin.

So again, pretty desperate actions, but have to get some disipline and buy some damn coin month to month or I''m just gonna get a BTC Miner 'toy' and it can be with

all the other dubious regrets I have on where my $$$ go. BUT DAMN, AT LEAST I'D GET SOME BTC/CRYPTO OUT OF THE DAMN THING!

(RANT: needed to get my ass in gear and buy BTC/crypto month to month..damn it.been sliding and not accumulating all year....wuss that I am)

Anyway, questionable choices on purchasing such a miner above, but at least I'd not be bitching about my lack of accumulation 'dumb' method though it may be.

sheesh...I have to step it up and just buy it!

later

brad

replied to your pm

brad

I have a small amount of Litecoin yet, (well small compared to back in the day). Anyway, the ONLY reason I still have it

is for Mimblewimble. Then again I got Litecoin in bits that average out in price for the lot of about $85 a Litecoin.

Thus hoping for the turn around due to Mimblewimble. But as usual, that is the ONLY thing the LTC Devs seem to be promoting.

I wish they could push for more than one thing on coin updates to differentiate them from Bitcoin like Mimblewimble, but probably that is 1 hope too far.

Anyway, at the price I bought in at, kinda stuck. So again, hoping Mimblewimble pulls my ass out of the fire for an eventual over $100 an Litecoin price.

(knock wood)

Brad

Yeah, in the below article it says that Bitmain CEO is back to 'save the ship'! Is Bitmain really in that much trouble it could go under?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmain-ceo-ousts-co-founder-biggest-shareholder-to-save-the-ship

With all the goofy Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV etc Mining Bitmain did in the past, I wonder if it is a matter of 20/20 hindsight on those

screw-ups that are bringing the knives out. They sure are pumping out miners like they really, really need the cash flow, IMHO.

Better minds here on this thread than me may have better insights, just what comes to mind for me at this moment.

Brad

I kinda have also come to your conclusion.

Have like 4 Altcoins I'm hodl'ing because well, hoping for a pump and not underwater yet.

The only one I do have a bit of faith out of the above 4 is Litecoin and that is simply for Mimblewimble.

But at this rate, I'll have cashed out the remaining above at HOPEFULLY the next pump and be all in for BTC.

It is obvious that where BTC goes all the altcoins follow anyway, just have to pare this down from these last 4 altcoins hoards of any note.

I did have a dozen altcoins hodl's at one time...so it is progress.

later

Brad

I'm with you. My 'simplistic', and I mean that as 'very simplistic' lately at looking at BTC/Crypto is Whales in mining (with 2017 and 2018 mostly Bitmain L3+'s and S9's) getting out of HODL'ing

Bitcoin for the time being. The price always seems to do this at the beginning of the month (IMHO) and I think real-world issues of miners, not small, but not big enough at these prices,

having

to sell BTC/Crypto to pay for the lease/data hall/lifestyle (in that a lot of these guys have been self-employed last few years) etc. Indeed you could make a case a lot of miners, no matter the

size, are either doubling down and buying more ASICs or cashing out as it comes in. Miners are not in a HODL group anymore at least IMHO not this year.

Also just whales in general bleeding off some of the cream of

their massive BTC/Crypto Hoard....every time we get around $9k or $10k ...(hey I said it was simplistic). Again, have to keep the trophy wife happy and stay at the lifestyle you have

become accustomed too, when BTC price was high. (Sob! I miss those days ...soooooo much)

So I have 2 simplistic trains of thought about this:

1) The economy tanks into a recession and the price or BTC tanks as well, because whales/folks/etc sell for 'real-world issues' in that they bought or got into BTC/Crypto because they

had extra discretionary $$$ to spend because the economy was good. They would still like to accumulate BTC but hold off due to the turn in the economy (whenever)

2) The economy tanks into a recession and the price of BTC pumps, because whales now will HODL and folks/etc and institutions will pile into Bitcoin as a safe haven. This to use

Bitcoin as a 'virtual gold' and store of value.

As I said, this is a 'simplistic future' but I do think the economy will have to have a recession sometime with what is going on in the world and I guess a guy can flip a coin on which of

the above is true. Come to think of it a lot of my BTC/Crypto theories are 'simplistic' so I should probably just stick to flipping a coin anyway.

Again, like most things in BTC/Crypto make a choice.

Brad

I agree...the rinse/wash/repeat....gets amplified when the ATH is approached...and perhaps even the whales jump in the pool on the way up...but with the amount of $$$

a whale has and big money means more probably real-life issues....the whale is also the first to bail with this 'real $$$' realization...especially if he/she (the whale) is much better off on the

run up buy buying more up to the ATH and can sell out at even more $$$ with more or less $$$ intact. The 'normal' not whale bitcoin is likely to just 'let it ride' like a lottery...

thus the ebb and flow we see now.

It seems when BTC gets  over $10k some whales bleed some BTC off...it goes down to 8k other whales or same whales buyback in...rinse/wash/repeat

with as much Bitcoin these whales have the price between 8k and 12k could go on for more than a few years...

as this relates to tether..it is likely (?) a lot easier to dump btc in tether as a whale and see which way the market is going and hodl or dump out or back into BTC using that method.

I'm guessing on that. But again, it could be just too many whales running from the low price side of the boat and back to the high price side of the boat..thus the volatility.

The only way out of this would be if the whales all decide to get out of BTC for cash for some real-life issue maybe? deep recession? etc..then prices would really dump.

or

The other way would be if the whales see the same recession as a reason to HODL coin for bad times..store of value as stock market dumps, etc, thus sitting on their hands...and thus

driving scarcity of BTC up and price of BTC up ..the old share of value argument

So it was not tether..it was whales trying to make up minds when to sell/if to sell or if to buy back on the volatility of bitcoin...likely adding to it greatly..it is not a conspiracy

if you are a large whale and have a lot of influence on the market....all these whales are well aware of how much sway they have in the BTC market....they just IMHO act

accordingly ...but there are a mess of them doing so....self-interest rules...it just is obvious when they should buy and when they should get out with that amount of BTC they

hold..thus they hold the price to where they want by consensus on how they buy and sell...their influence is just way greater than the average user.

When everybody is getting into BTC (newbs) they are more likely to just sit back and watch till the ATH (or their uncomfortable zone) and then they sell and profit and/or whatever.

Again, once BTC is say accepted more readily as a store ..of value...I myself would see NO whales selling for real-life issues..in that the price would likely go up big time...

But even they have to see NO whale games and adoption and such to accumulate on the hype along with everyone else. Until then they can move the market like a mindless

but...whatever a group of them is doing at any particular time, again for real-life issues, sometimes may show where the market is going...

what that point is I have no idea...but hopefully that kinda acceptance and stability is coming to BTC and is reflected in higher/sustainable prices...

but in an unregulated market like BTC (IMHO) with large players and no laws against wash trading and other tricks you'd not otherwise see in a traditional market, the price

will never go sideways..it will either go up or down. Usually with large swings in price. The only thing that BTC does have going for it is that sideways price when it is passed

through back and forth between adoption and whale games keeps getting higher. So again, not tether, just obvious self-interest on the whales part and adoption/newbs growing

pains and acceptance..battling it out as I think is going on (but then again, I'm just typing out of my ass on here so what do I know)

later

Brad


chump or champ we will be the first to know

brad

Of course, Tether would push back and say that.

But for myself, I think the issue with manipulation of Bitcoin by Whales has a few simple reasons.

1) If you are a whale and were big into BTC mining with Bitmain equipment from 2017 to 2019, you are soon to be out of the mining game. Yet if you were big,

you have data halls to pay for and rent and etc as you wind it down. Instead of hodl'ing BTC, you are forced to sell it (Notice how we dump in price from the 1st of the

month till the 10th of the month). Thus mining is down, hodl'ing is down from these folk and they all have to sell more coin than they'd like to pay bils. Real Life Issues.

2) If you are a whale and If you are a Boomer etc, you likely are going to continue to takes 'some' out of your BTC stash. If some of the really big top 5% boys are

in this group, it has a disproportionate effect on market price.

3) FUTURE: If people were collecting BTC with 'excess cash' when the economy is good, they could also blow more BTC when the economy is bad. A lot of BTC folk

and whales 'were' self-employed miners for years with BTC/Crypto. If these guys have a choice of getting a real job again, they will cash out some coin. So the question is:

will BTC get more people hodl'ing in bad times as a store of value in the next recession? Or will people blow BTC/Crypto to keep the lifestyle of whales or the self-employment

going poof from mining etc, and sell coins? I know more than a few folks who are having to sell coin to pay for their data hall operations etc by the 10th of the month.

No idea. But some of the stuff that crosses my mind on HODL'ing hoard or all or some or whatever.

So the dump of tether back in the day was likely the same as above, not manipulated, just some very rich whales who dumped at the ATH and for a while it was whales

accumulating...but it got to a point that more whales dumped than accumulated..thus the drop from the ATH again. Self-Interest is what moves the market IMHO, but

whales had a lot more clout in 2017 than they do now. (hell, I'm probably wrong)

later

brad

Well, IMHO, to back the Yuan State-Sponsored currency against Gold would be way, way to capitalistic for a Communist country like China. Also would take them out of control

of the currency. People forget that China is a Communist country that uses Capitalism to stay in power and meet its own needs to stay in power. This IMHO would be a step too far.

No, China will simply use the Yuan to back their cryptocurrency to show strength and be able to control the cryptocurrency with money in and money out like any other fiat currency.

That is my bet on how this is all gonna play out. I mean, they can have their cake and eat it too, in that manner....all the control of fiat and the 'illusion' of crypto.

We will see, but this is my firm view.

Brad

As an aside, for a comparison of Bitcoin to Gold outside of the price, is the fact that Gold Reserves conceivably can be still found in the world.

Bitcoin is becoming a more 'rarified' ...er....product I'd guess you'd say.




Just saying this puts another bit of pressure on Gold vs Bitcoin Price..that would not be otherwise apparent.

Also got this from Micgoossen's Wall Observer post (He is on a roll). Looking at 2028, man, that is gonna be a 'bitch' to mine then.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53023803#msg53023803

Brad

Yeah, back in 2013 to say 2016 some of the bigger BTC miners was like put it in GOLD...not so many fanboys for that now..but those years it was tempting...now not so much...

The chart below stolen from Micgoossens post on wall observer thread on here: https://bitcointalk.org//index.php?topic=178336.msg53024290#msg53024290]

Yeah, back in 2013 to say 2016 some of the bigger BTC miners was like put it in GOLD...not so many fanboys for that now..but those years it was tempting...now not so much...

The chart below stolen from Micgoossens post on wall observer thread on here: https://bitcointalk.org//index.php?topic=178336.msg53024290#msg53024290

The only way I may get ONE more HOBBY miner, at the data hall and at 10c kWh is:

1) if Tariff goes away in the USA

2) if I find I can't seem to pace myself to BUY BTC now and continue to fritter $$$ away, in that case, I should get a BTC miner to at least force myself

     to set some $$$ aside into BTC, even though that is the 'wimp' way out. I should just buy BTC monthly with cash, but I never seem to do so. So I

      could snap and get another hobby miner, pay the electric in advance, just to MAKE my frigging self put some BTC dust away yet!

3) This is the cowards (dumb ass) way to collect BTC/Crypto ..but you have to remember it is NOT so much that you have BTC/Crypto if you believe in BTC/Crypto

and things progress as they have in the past, and you don't continue to accumulate and add to your hoard/hodl, well then, even a half-assed way of mining BTC

with an overpriced miner WILL make you feel a lot better, then doing nothing for accumulation now. Just saying, if I seem to be blowing cash like a drunken sailor

anyway maybe a dubious miner is not all that bad to make myself put some BTC/Crypto away. Again, if I believe BTC/Crypto will eventually go back to the ATH's.

But it has been months since I bought BTC/Cyrpto of any note. So hell, one thing about ASIC mining you paid to play and paid the data hall thug each month or

you could not mine anymore....so as a way to have a MINDER to put some coin away, I need to step it up and buy on a regular basis or just put myself in a hole

and get an ASIC and mine. One thing for sure either method to get coin, I never seem to have the $$$ I started the year with at the end of the year anyway. I do

seem to keep the BTC I get in that time period though..so go figure.

(man, I really need to man up and just buy some each month...but so many other toys and so little time)

later

Brad

Reserved.

Why you don't listen to those in the 'know' from back in the day. The 'you have to use BTC for Gold argument, as a newbie, rather than 'virtual BTC' Glad I went with my gut on this.

The price of gold and Bitcoin when I started mining BTC Sept 18th, 2013. I really started with the KNC Jupiter ASIC miner on 10/18/2013...but hey, 0.69 BTC on the GPU cards count.

price of gold exactly 0 years start 2013 (more or less) it was $1,348.09 USD and BTC was about $130.86 (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 1 year later 2014 (more or less)  was $1,226.96 USD and BTC was about $475.37 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 2 years later 2015 (more or less) it was $1,121.32 USD and BTC was about $229.09 (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 3 years later 2016 (more or less) it was $1,328.57 USD and BTC was about $606.97 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 4 years later 2017 (more or less) it was $1,327.06 USD and BTC was about $3,630.70 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 5 years later 2018 (more or less) it was $1,202.50 USD and BTC was about $6,371.30 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 6 years later 2019 (more or less) it was $1,502.51 USD and BTC was about $   10,242.27 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

The price of gold as of TODAY 11/7/2019 is $1,470.65 USD and BTC is currently today $9,271.90 USD as I type this here.

Using this chart for days closest on such chart (iffy by a day or so) for the price of GOLD historically.

https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts/gold-price

Using this chart for days closest on such chart (iffy by a day or so) for the price of Bitcoin historically.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmmm....good thing I did not listen to all the Gold Bugs who said I needed something 'Tangible' as a store of value.

I know a LOT of folk back in 2013 that cashed out or put it in Gold/Silver. It was a lot of talk about which was better, back in those early days. I just went with the HODL

idea on Bitcoin and so far it seems to be working out quite well.

Take the poll if you wish.

later

Brad

The price of gold and Bitcoin when I started mining BTC Sept 18th, 2013. I really started with the KNC Jupiter ASIC miner on 10/18/2013...but hey, 0.69 BTC on the GPU card counts.

price of gold exactly 0 years start 2013 (more or less) it was $1,348.09 USD and BTC was about $130.86 (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 1 year later 2014 (more or less)  was $1,226.96 USD and BTC was about $475.37 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 2 years later 2015 (more or less) it was $1,121.32 USD and BTC was about $229.09 (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 3 years later 2016 (more or less) it was $1,328.57 USD and BTC was about $606.97 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 4 years later 2017 (more or less) it was $1,327.06 USD and BTC was about $3,630.70 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 5 years later 2018 (more or less) it was $1,202.50 USD and BTC was about $6,371.30 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

price of gold exactly 6 years later 2019 (more or less) it was $1,502.51 USD and BTC was about $   10,242.27 USD (more or less) the same/closest day on the charts.

The price of gold as of TODAY 11/7/2019 is $1,470.65 USD and BTC is currently today $9,271.90 USD as I type this here.

Using this chart for days closest on such chart (iffy by a day or so) for the price of GOLD historically.

https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts/gold-price

Using this chart for days closest on such chart (iffy by a day or so) for the price of Bitcoin historically.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Hmmm....good thing I did not listen to all the Gold Bugs who said I needed something 'Tangible' as a store of value.

later

Brad