About 4 or 5 months ago, BitMinter was having a horrible string of bad luck to the point they were wondering if there was something technically wrong with the pool. Did that ever get sorted out?
Yes, there was an independent audit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201258.0I think Bitminter is one if the best paying pools right now, because of low fees, Namecoin mining and payment of transaction fees. Edit: bitparking might pay even more (0% fee, alt coins) but is somewhat small. What little mining I've done has been with bitparking. I have no experience of the others, because I was using a low end GPU and didn't think I had a snowball's chance in hell at the bigger ones. That being said, I found them easy to use, and I did make a bit of coin. This was just before I moved from PA. I'm probably going with them once I get the hardware sorted. |
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@Biomech. Yeah, congress would have children design the highway system and put the space program in the hands of the flat Earth society. I'm thankful every day for the wasteful, shameful gridlock they are permanently stuck in. Thankful because if they ever became effective it would be the end of us all.
Couldn't agree more. This nails it on the head why I did NOT break my vows and vote for Ron Paul. He might actually have been effective, and the way they're going will end the Empire in time anyway. |
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Don't think so, but KnC's chips are out of fab and in packaging as we type. EDIT: Asicminer. We both forgot Asicminer  Yes, Asicminer, of course! So from upcoming more or less real offers whom you seen as reliable source? KnC is for me something more or less real, but never know. I think KnC is legit, I'm iffy but leaning towards positive on Cointerra and to a lesser degree, HashFast. Don't know enough about Alydian yet to form an opinion. I think BFL will deliver the Monarch on about the same schedule as they delivered their other shit... far beyond use. I haven't investigated the others sufficiently. |
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So, your experiences are something like this?  Often the law are general and not specific to a person. The constrains is put on the suggester too. And? That a clusterfuck is general doesn't make it not a clusterfuck. It is also true in your beloved democracies that law is often whimsical, always arbitrary and capricious, and usually formed by people with zero experience in the field they are fucking over legislating regulations upon. On the very subject that started this thread, I watched the senate debate the last "assault weapon" ban and saw first hand that while they clearly fear guns, there were THREE senators out of 102 that knew which end of the gun to shoot (they rely on paid thugs for that in their brief forays into the great unwashed). Yet they are "qualified" to determine who can and cannot have a gun. Bullshit. They are not qualified to wipe my ass. They'd bungle it. They are really only qualified for two things. Stealing and Lying. That, they are quite good at. All of them, or they wouldn't have gotten elected. |
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Our play continues...
ACT I
In which the people are filled with mirth, anticipating much ROI and RESALE VALUE
ACT II
In which the people wait
ACT III
In which the Evil Yifu destroys the people's hopes and dreams!
Act IV
In which Terrahash absconds, and the people turn on one another
Act V
? ? ?
Act Vmassive suicide? ahahahahhaha 232 pages ....
And probably 20 in total with useful info
It will be nice if some of participants of this thread will make less posts about nothing.
If that happened this thread would be dead. Probably, but itīs tiring all over again for 100 pages same things. Maybe we just need to talk about something else, itīs clear that TH screwed all buyers by now. ok, you pick the subject! @btceic really not without help of master Yifu, but this another story. Actually only Bitfury and Avalon working ASICS by now, or i missed someone? Don't think so, but KnC's chips are out of fab and in packaging as we type. EDIT: Asicminer. We both forgot Asicminer |
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For Fast food reference:  I work in fast food. You have the blue and red reversed. |
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My hatred of democracy isn't related directly to the NAP, it's related to two things I perceive to be true. One, individuals can and do make good decisions regarding their own fate, and two, groups exclude the individual BY FUCKING DEFINITION. I don't have any desire to be a cog in your machine, and your machine won't allow me not to be. Mob rule with a fancy name is still mob rule. The founders of this nation almost without exception did NOT want a true democracy, but rather a republic with a democratic method of selecting it's rulers. I don't find that a lot better, but it's at least less random.
So, your experiences are something like this? LOL!!! Great find there. |
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I'm stupid. Please explain it to me.
.....it might be a bad idea to sell guns AND ban them from schools at the same time, as slightly less people are getting killed in isreal then 'Murica. But i really don't think thats its a good idea to give guns to children, they are incapable of realizing what power they have in their hands.Fortunately it does not matter much what you think. There are countless examples of children defending themselves and/or their families with firearms. These go back to when Americans had children that went to one room school houses. There were quite a few pitched battles between those children and attacking Indians. So I would say, based on considerable evidence, that children are quite capable of realizing what power they have in their hands. oh, you mean when religouse extremist from europe(the forefathers of 'Murica) invaded other peoples land('Murica), and the original inhabitants(The indians) defended themselves and their property? Do you really want to go there? You NAP people REALLY want to go there? Regarding NAP and the NAPsters' hatred for democracy. I never did get an answer from them about who determines the guilt of the accused that was satisfactory. It's one of our thornier problems, and we have a number of solutions. Next time I log on I'll have some interesting links for you. However, I'll give you a short form right here. Systems of courts do not and never have needed a central authority. Look up the Law Merchant and Admiralty Law for a couple of widely cited examples, also the Irish system prior to their conquest by Britain. They give you some ideas of how disputes can be settled satisfactorily without an overarching and highly corrupt(ible) authority. Also, you'll find if you study American frontier history that for the most part PRIOR to major federal involvement, the natives and the whites got on fairly well. There were hotspots, but overall it wasn't until the USG started claiming land in spite of treaties that things got seriously ugly. However, children learning to use firearms at an early age went back WAY before that. The revolutionary war would not have happened if the kids couldn't shoot. My hatred of democracy isn't related directly to the NAP, it's related to two things I perceive to be true. One, individuals can and do make good decisions regarding their own fate, and two, groups exclude the individual BY FUCKING DEFINITION. I don't have any desire to be a cog in your machine, and your machine won't allow me not to be. Mob rule with a fancy name is still mob rule. The founders of this nation almost without exception did NOT want a true democracy, but rather a republic with a democratic method of selecting it's rulers. I don't find that a lot better, but it's at least less random. Also, with the passage of the seventeenth amendment, one of the major checks on central power was eliminated as the States no longer have a sovereign representative. Essentially the seventeenth eliminates the senate in all but name. This worked very well for previous imperial ambitions as well. Look up Julius Caesar and Adolph Hitler, specifically the Reichstag Enabling Act in the latter case. Violent revolutions are simply not as effective for governments as a policy of gradually rolling back any liberties the people have obtained. The boiled frog concept has worked really well for those who rule. Not so well for the frogs. |
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....As I've said countless times here, uniform application of gun control is necessary.
It does not matter what YOU SAID. All that matters in a discussion is what has been reasonably well proved, and that you haven't achieved. You might be more precise in your statement, something like.... "Even though I've been proved wrong on my theory of uniform application, I continue to believe it...Only if all the people except the criminals are disarmed will we be safe. Only when people have to uniformly rely on police never getting to the crime scene until the crime is over and the criminals have fled, will we be safe. Only when every rapist can get what he wants without fear of guns, will the world be a better place." I actually agree with uniform application of gun control. If you are not in control of your gun, you have a problem. Now, if by gun control, you mean those who by the fiat of government possess all the guns, and the "citizens" (slaves, as they are disarmed) have no weapons available to them, that's a whole different thing. Several of you have pointed out, more than once, that an armed revolution is futile. I daresay you are wrong, but it is undesirable. However, when the people, whether all of them or a large group, do decide to secede or "secede in place" and use the power of their numbers to withdraw consent peaceably, that government that so many of you think is their for your benefit will come against them WITH guns. And defensively, we the armed outnumber the goons by a significant number. Luckily for the 545 people who rule this nation, most of the slaves don't understand how vastly they outnumber their masters. But, having been involved in politics, I can guarantee to you that those who rule you DO understand it. And fear it. It's one of the reasons they go after hobby weapons and not handguns. It's why they promote "diversity" programs that are designed to not only fail but inflame the passions of different cultural groups within the nation. It's why they start diversionary wars overseas with false flag events. They will do ANYTHING to keep you looking anywhere but at them. Also, this is a personal observation I made over the course of the ten years I was involved in republican party politics: All those elected or seeking election want power the way a drowning man wants air. ALL of them. These are the people you cede the power of legal violence to if you buy into democracy and/or gun control. I dropped out. I looked at the alternatives. I chose to be an anarchist, as it makes the most sense to the enrichment (in all senses) to the greatest number of people. I do not vote, therefore I have EVERY right to bitch. I reject the system, not because it has failed, but because for those who rule it, it has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of the ancient Emperors. You cannot FIX a system that works as it was designed. You can either accept it, and all that it implies, or reject it because it is a flawed outcome. Government is SUPPOSED to become vastly powerful. Those who say otherwise fall into exactly two camps. Those who would rule (are selling you something), and those who are deluded. I have little problem with your having dropped out, with your disgust with politicians or the practicality of greed for power. However it is a mistake to over generalize, actually it is a logical fallacy. We do not want to take a broad brush and paint Rand Paul and Barbara Waters with sameness. So forth and so on... I both agree and disagree. I've never met Rand, so I cannot say it definitively, but I have met his Dad. He's the only national level politician I have met that I have any respect for. Actually, rather a lot. He's an idealist, and that's both exhilarating and dangerous. He does have the lust for power, but he also has the temperament of a gentleman and the belief that he can and should use that power to help people. While that is several orders of magnitude better than most of them, it's still incredibly dangerous. I almost voted for him in the last election, but not because I thought he would "fix" a system that is functioning perfectly for it's beneficiaries. Rather, because he's so bull headed and idealistic, I thought he might accelerate the downfall of the empire by TRYING to do right. Staying with the status quo, as most of them will do regardless of rhetoric (Rand has been bad about this, btw) will allow the system to function a bit longer than trying to "reform" it. I think Ron Paul really would have unilaterally ended the wars and military occupations by the US, and I think he would have tried mightily to abolish the federal reserve. I also think he would have been assassinated within two weeks of taking office. But the damage he could have done to the Empire in that two weeks would have been an epic show, and it would have exposed the rest for the traitors to humanity that they are. |
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I keep seeing people mentioning the upcoming monarchs from BFL in with other companies adding to the increase...but I have to wonder who would trust them enough to (pre)order one ? I think people aren't so stupid as to ignore all the companies who have royally screwed customers this year (monarch may be an insider jest about them doing that?) ...so when KnC deliver on time and with better rigs than spec, wouldn't prudent buyers wait that few months for a gen 2 that may give them a chance to break even because it will at least arrive in good time? Who takes a risk when they can avoid it?
If this is even half true then a lot of this increase might be delayed until KnC gen 2 ..which is early 2014..
If I wasn't already waiting and was looking to buy a rig now, I'd see how KnC performed compare to the others ...and probably go with the one that was trustworthy with the additional bonus that gen 2 won't be the 1st attempt so should run smoother.
Just speculation but KNC gen 2 will be the same as gen 1. Maybe they'll add a logo sticker in with the package. That and they're not going to overclock future Jupiter orders. I have a feeling they're doing that just to reward early adopters/customers. I doubt it. Gen 1 is a rush job. While a talented team can do a pretty damn good job in a short time, there is always more that can be done for optimization. I would suspect that the gen 1 chip has a LOT of redundancy that could be either put to use for more hashpower or straight up eliminated for the sake of power consumption with a bit of time to redesign. The smaller die size doesn't mean that it's fully optimized. In fact, that smaller die size gives you a lot more room to fudge, which seems to fit in with their entire philosophy to date. That being said, discounting the big rush right now, I would imagine they were working both designs in parallel to be ready for gen 2 quickly. I would guess that their first chip is a rough draft with a lot of room for improvement. There's an old truism that goes like this: Q. When is an engineering project finished? A1. Never A2. When marketing says it is! |
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....As I've said countless times here, uniform application of gun control is necessary.
It does not matter what YOU SAID. All that matters in a discussion is what has been reasonably well proved, and that you haven't achieved. You might be more precise in your statement, something like.... "Even though I've been proved wrong on my theory of uniform application, I continue to believe it...Only if all the people except the criminals are disarmed will we be safe. Only when people have to uniformly rely on police never getting to the crime scene until the crime is over and the criminals have fled, will we be safe. Only when every rapist can get what he wants without fear of guns, will the world be a better place." I actually agree with uniform application of gun control. If you are not in control of your gun, you have a problem. Now, if by gun control, you mean those who by the fiat of government possess all the guns, and the "citizens" (slaves, as they are disarmed) have no weapons available to them, that's a whole different thing. Several of you have pointed out, more than once, that an armed revolution is futile. I daresay you are wrong, but it is undesirable. However, when the people, whether all of them or a large group, do decide to secede or "secede in place" and use the power of their numbers to withdraw consent peaceably, that government that so many of you think is their for your benefit will come against them WITH guns. And defensively, we the armed outnumber the goons by a significant number. Luckily for the 545 people who rule this nation, most of the slaves don't understand how vastly they outnumber their masters. But, having been involved in politics, I can guarantee to you that those who rule you DO understand it. And fear it. It's one of the reasons they go after hobby weapons and not handguns. It's why they promote "diversity" programs that are designed to not only fail but inflame the passions of different cultural groups within the nation. It's why they start diversionary wars overseas with false flag events. They will do ANYTHING to keep you looking anywhere but at them. Also, this is a personal observation I made over the course of the ten years I was involved in republican party politics: All those elected or seeking election want power the way a drowning man wants air. ALL of them. These are the people you cede the power of legal violence to if you buy into democracy and/or gun control. I dropped out. I looked at the alternatives. I chose to be an anarchist, as it makes the most sense to the enrichment (in all senses) to the greatest number of people. I do not vote, therefore I have EVERY right to bitch. I reject the system, not because it has failed, but because for those who rule it, it has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of the ancient Emperors. You cannot FIX a system that works as it was designed. You can either accept it, and all that it implies, or reject it because it is a flawed outcome. Government is SUPPOSED to become vastly powerful. Those who say otherwise fall into exactly two camps. Those who would rule (are selling you something), and those who are deluded. |
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Hmm, ran the the numbers a few times and the ROI is very bad.
What numbers? I didn't see a release date. February 2014 according to the press release. |
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well maybe i have a lower threshold for when killing people is acceptable. live with it.
That certainly argues in FAVOR of others owning firearms, doesn't it? |
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I'm grateful for his work but his attitude is total shit.
meeh, sadly I must agree with you at this point. Granted, there have only been a couple interactions, but Kano has been quite cool to me. I told him up front I was a newbie, and he was very helpful. All he got out of it for now was my thanks. Once I get seriously into the game, I do intend to support the CGminer development with a donation(s) as I go. Which I did say up front. What he told me in PM was that it is far EASIER to develop and debug support for hardware if it's in hand, and that yes, they hope to make a few coins doing it. I didn't see that as unreasonable. |
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Wafer-chip... same thing.. wafer is just a whole bunch of chips not cut out.. And not packaged... Not a small difference, ask BFL. BFL ain't really a valid comparison. They did EVERYTHING bass ackwards, as near as I can tell. The chips were designed in partnership with OrSOC, who already have a long standing agreement and history with the fabs. It is unlikely, due to past history, that they will have problems with customs. BFL and Avalon were unknowns to the authorities. One is a startup with a bad rep, the other a group of students with NO rep. OrSOC is an established entity with a decade of experience, and likely has dealt with the customs agents in the country of origin many times. Also, on the Avalon side, there is a long standing enmity between the ROC and PRC, so they might hang up things coming from Taiwan to Hong Kong just because they can, whereas Taiwan and Sweden have no negative history, thus are less likely to be targeted. All of the above, regarding customs, is speculation on my part, but it's based on my knowledge of the countries involved. I don't see it likely that customs will be a hangup. I have purchased things from Taiwan via internet directly to the US, a much longer delivery, and had NO problems. And I am not a well respected electronics design company or their affiliate. The possibility always exists, but it's pretty much worrying for the sake of worrying. Further, all of these concerns apply to the other ASIC manufacturers as well. If customs is LIKELY to delay them, then they are likely to delay them all. Since KNC is the first on the market with 28nm, and if they are not hung up by externalities will be the second to deliver on promised time, then why sweat the externalities? It does your sleep no good at all. I am not entirely convinced that Avalon really did have customs problems, other than the documented thing with PSU's. They acted in a distinctly shady manner after batch 1, so it could be a CYA move on their part to blame customs. FWIW. If one is delayed by customs out of taiwan, it's likely all will be if they use that fab. If they aren't, then the only delays are internal. They claim to be on track to avoid the internal ones. We're looking at about a week and a half according to that update. CHILL. |
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I've always disagreed that Terrahash is a scam, I still disagree that they are. A poorly run business and a scam are two different things.
The end result is the same. Customers get screwed. True enough, and thus you have non criminal recourse as part of any decent system of law and courts. Part of determining criminality is and always has been intent.It is my feeling that Terrahash's intentions were and probably are good. They need some business people in addition to the engineering expertise. Engineers and musicians (in general) are good at what they do and not good on the business end. Both get screwed by it frequently. I think this is what you're seeing. That they are taking people with them is unfortunate, but not criminal. |
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What this debate, and all debates on politics, boil down to is thus:
Are you pro-freedom, or pro-authority?
The odd part is, you must be pro-freedom on all topics to count as pro-freedom; to be pro-authority on anything is to be pro-authority on everything, as government does not pick and choose what any single individual believes should be up to the individual or not; it just sucks in everyone's thoughts on what government should regulate and regulates everything, including the things certain people don't want it to regulate. It's easier to add law, than to take away, as every law gives government that much more power over its citizens, and the bigger it gets, the harder it is to counteract it: this is the pro-authority stance, the same perspective that has given us the dysfunctional American government of today.
However, it is my belief that, if democracy is functional, then that means people are functional without democracy, for if democracy is necessary, the people are dysfunctional without it, and thus, democracy cannot work with a dysfunctional people as it requires its people to actually be able to think and participate, and if they could think and participate, they would already be doing so without the help of democracy. So, I take a pro-freedom stance, as I do not believe people require a higher power to be told what to do and how to do it; it is in my belief that people readily have their self-interest in mind, which is eroded when they are told they cannot think for themselves as only government can tell them what's best for them (e.g. "We must ban all the guns", or even the unlikely "We must not ban all the guns"; it doesn't matter, since people already know what they want), and so a dependency is created.
If ever there is a time where you say, "We have to ban X because it's just obvious/for our own good/people can't figure it out on their own", remember it's people who make democracy function, making this statement redundant, for it assumes people both can and cannot think for themselves (or rather, the person saying this has taken an authoritative stance in the assumption that he is more intelligent/powerful than his peers.) The only explanation to this idea is that government is not by the people, but its own entity, making its own laws in its own benefit through corrupt politicians and business owners, and the pro-authority individual just loves the idea of manipulating this system for their own benefit, even at, or ignoring, the expense of others.
Yes, guns are made to kill people. But remember that it's through guns that we ban guns, and if you believe guns should be banned, you must absolutely believe government should disappear, and yet this is the dissonance I constantly hear in these arguments, because you cannot be pro-authority and anti-gun; in fact, pro-authority individuals require guns, they absolutely love the idea of guns, or else their authoritative stance simply disappears: nobody cares about the demands of an unarmed individual. If you believe citizens should be banned from having guns, but government should still have them, this only reinforces the idea that government is not of the people; it is its own entity, passing laws for its own needs, made even more easy as there's close to a 0% chance they'll be overthrown.
Please, for the love of Christ, anti-gun proponents, lose the ambivalence and understand what it is you're asking for: you cannot be in favor of politics and against guns and killing, for politics necessitates the other; you cannot, ever, ever, ever, have both a powerful and benevolent government, for that power stems from their ability to kill, with guns, and tanks, and missiles, etc. The government with the ability to ban guns is the government with all the guns and is using them, often.
Thank you! I could not have said it better! My stance is that democracy (mob rule) is actually the most tyrannical system every conceived. I am an anarchist, with the views you just expressed (other than a love of Christ ) But if I absolutely HAVE to live under a government, I would prefer an open oligarchy with at least SOME boundaries other than just the manipulation of the majority. That's easy, for any demagogue. |
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This is in fact where I vary with most of the "we'll never break even" crowd. Never is an awful long time. The machines are not likely to cease to function within the period that the desperate pleas for positive ROI are indicating. A 20 percent per annum ROI is likely even given the worst case generated by the most pessimistic calculations. That's the kind of return that makes real world investors drool, so I'm frankly both amused and irritated by the people who whine about not breaking even in a couple of weeks.
A horizon of 5 years or more means you have to worry about electricity costs, and there is danger on two sides. The first threat is that the chips being made now pay little attention to electricity efficiency, so even if future generations aren't much faster, they may be so much more efficient that they will make the current generations unprofitable to keep running. The second threat is that mining will centralize in locales where electricity is virtually free. You may think your $0.10/kW-h electricity is great, but the folks in Siberia and Central Washington get it for $0.01/kW-h. That alone is more differentiation than you would get out of a first gen vs second gen chip. A guaranteed 20% return would be excellent. This is anything but guaranteed. True. Again, I never meant to imply it was guaranteed. Guaranteed returns are usually either really long term or less than 5 percent per annum in other fields. At any rate, I live close enough to central washington to obviate the problem if needed, and I don't know how long it would be good for. But two to three months seems awfully shortsited to me. (that wasn't really aimed at you, just seems to be a widely held time frame around here) I'm off to bed right now, but thanks for an intelligent interchange! |
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those guys are just grasping for straws right now, offloading as much risk as possible to the suc..err buyers, given the difficulty gap.
ladies & gents we are now finally in the endgame, expect to see many asic hardware manufacturer to start losing money by next year and fold shop. unless you have a very thoroughly understanding of what is going on and what is happening in the next few months, your best bet is just to buy bitcoins directly instead of asic hardware if want to be in the game. Personally i am just holding cash and waiting.
By fold up shop you mean mine like hell, right? :-) I mean the r&d, manufacturing, and shipping cost basis of those hardware will no longer support a profit with the difficulty increase and instead cost more than income. Look at the asic blades, their cost basis is probably 1-2 btc, it was selling for 50 btc, now it's around 4 btc. In a few months this will no longer be profitable to manufacture. Now look at a new manufacturer such as cointerra who has not made any profit yet from the first few asic waves like am already done, they are just hitting the market at those stressed prices to begin with and the situation will only get worse, for them it's not only the hardware cost but also the r&d cost. Yes the chips will be cheaper to make as they pack more gh, but the endgame is still bleak with THs of difficulty all coming online from various late comers trying to make the final wave. Bitfury barely made it in to squeeze out a good profit, anything new coming out dec+ will have a very difficult time unless btc/usd increases drastically which looks doubtful. The writing is on the walls. EDIT: for anyone confused i am talking about asic manufacturers only in above post, for small retail miners the game is already up. I'm going to have to disagree on several points. First, the cost to manufacture chips is pretty miniscule. The initial cost is development, and making the mask. Once that's done, it's pretty much just the cost of the silicon and the manufacturing run. Once the NRE is out of the way, they can lower their prices substantially. If they are smart, they will do it incrementally in response to market conditions, thus making enough profit to repeat the cycle on a higher order chip next time round without having to do the pre order thing. Face it, AMD, Intel, and their ilk are NOT selling 'obsolete' chips at a loss. They have recovered their R&D costs and have continued to manufacture the chip on it's actual cost basis, then market it for what they can get. I doubt they ever get below 100 percent markup over all costs before discontinuing a line. As for the game being up for the small operator? I think not. I think the game for the small operator RIGHT NOW is wait and see. You are looking at an arms race for who can deliver better, faster, and cheaper $/BTC/<insert fiat> per GH/s or even TH/s. Sit and wait a few months and you'll see all sorts of first gen hardware in the secondary market for satoshis on the BTC initial price. Just like in the PC world, today's Badass is tomorrow's dumpster treasure. If you can get it damn near free, it WLL give you a positive ROI fairly quickly unless the cost of electricity skyrockets. Every gamer, whether in business, life, or chess, has to be able to adapt to changes in the game. This one has so many variables that I think there are still many MANY winning strategies for the little guy. You just have to fake patience. So the thing that's not being considered here is the capital expenditure on semiconductor processing equipment. Sure, mask sets are expensive. But there is a significant opportunity cost associated with using that 5-million dollar etch cluster tool or that 4-million dollar dep tool, to keep cranking out crappy old chips instead of the new ones. Waving off marginal costs for semiconductor production is foolish for anything except very low volume runs, in which case mask costs dominate. Foundries would rather use that equipment for modern process nodes (if possible). Saying "it's just the cost of the silicon and the manufacturing run" ignores just how much that manufacturing run costs. Basically, masks require the customer to buy into the cost of the equipment - which is enough to make small runs unprofitable, but it isn't going to make big runs cheap. I agree about what is going to happen to the second-hand market though. There is serious potential for the little guy to pick up discarded, power-inefficient hardware, take it someplace with nearly-free electricity (Siberia, Washington State) and set up shop. Yeah, I didn't mean to say those costs are trivial, though it did kind of come out that way. I'm just saying that the cost to manufacture once the NRE is covered is orders of magnitude smaller. Plus there are frequently spaces available on other runs, etc. that are offered up to make more profit per run for the foundry. There are numerous avenues for cost cutting without re-engineering the whole damn thing. Also, from what I understand (I freely confess to being an interested amateur) the newest processes that are going into production on the photolithography side of things are going to be significantly cheaper than the dominant process right now. While I do not see Bitcoin ASIC machines going to 14nm or even 22nm in the immediate future, I do see it as a distinct probability in the mid term predicated really on just one thing. That thing is multifaceted, but still, just one thing. Widespread adoption of bitcoin. Mining speculation alone has not driven the price up from nothing to hovering around 120 USD over the short life of this experiment. Enough people have perceived it to be a less risky store of value than national fiat currencies at this point to give it a good push. It's artificial limits are such that such adoption is likely, unless something happens to totally screw the pooch. In the not so long term the huge amount of hashing power that's about to come online is good for bitcoin, and ultimately is LIKELY to be good for the miners as the coins they mine will rise in value as adoption becomes more widespread. This is in fact where I vary with most of the "we'll never break even" crowd. Never is an awful long time. The machines are not likely to cease to function within the period that the desperate pleas for positive ROI are indicating. A 20 percent per annum ROI is likely even given the worst case generated by the most pessimistic calculations. That's the kind of return that makes real world investors drool, so I'm frankly both amused and irritated by the people who whine about not breaking even in a couple of weeks. My background is in restaurant management, and if you break even in a decade on a restaurant, you're doing great. But breakeven isn't the only concern. Are you meeting your overhead and making a living? These are more important considerations than 100 percent capitalization ever will be. Sure, it's great to owe nothing and be fully in the black, but is it realistic business? The answer to that is generally no. Very few companies at any level run without debt or amortization of equipment over time. As to the secondary market, I see we agree, and I stand by it. Those who "must" have bleeding edge equipment discard the older stuff nearly immediately. I have observed and profited from this particular truth for the better part of three decades. I don't see it changing any time soon. |
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How do you figure? If they already know they're going to be late and they don't say so, they are untrustworthy.
Personally I'd rather them be overt crooks and just lie, than be silent pussies (afraid to lie overtly but not afraid to just bury crucial information that their customers need).
You know that its a BUSINESS right? As in they are doing this to make a profit. How would it help them if they came out now and said "were going to be a couple weeks late". Refunds would skyrocket, meanwhile in the next couple days after that statement, things are back on track. Its best to just say nothing and carry on. Just be PATIENT. come October 15th, if they haven't delivered a single unit, then feel free to bitch. in the meantime, put on your big boy pants and sit tight. Wow, people are so jaded after the BFL and Avalon debacles, that they think it's OK for a completely unproven company to cheat their very first customers. Let's not mince words. If you say "Shipping in september" and you don't ship in September, you've cheated your customers. This isn't a fucking toaster that they're shipping, it's a bitcoin miner whose value is decreasing exponentially. Ship date means *everything* and to lie about that is to cheat your customers. So let's see if they ship in September, and put off all this "liar and cheater" name calling until October some time According to my calendar this is just September 15th, that leaves them more than two weeks, still, to ship my 8 Jupiter orders. Hang on now, let me say for the record that I am not accusing KNC of lying OR cheating, at all. I'm just saying the silence looks bad, and that it is in their best interest to post "still on schedule", whether it's the truth or not. So how much communication do you need? It's Sunday - which is not a work day - and they just posted pictures of building out their data center on Friday. You can't deal with not hearing something for 48 hours? it seems very odd to me that people with the least amount of skin in the game - or none at all - are the people hollering the loudest.This. I'm one of those who have been following this with great interest (and popcorn), but due to personal circumstances do NOT have any skin in the game. I would have, had I been able, but that is irrelevant. Where I DO stand is that I want to get in on bitcoin mining, for my own reasons which may or may not make economic sense in the short run. KnC is one of about three companies I see as viable. Bitfury, Cointerra, and KnC. Of the three, I like KnC the best. They have been more communicative than anyone, despite the bitching in this thread, and they have been upfront about who they are and what they are doing (in a general sense). If they delivered two weeks late, which seems to be the point that a lot of y'all are bitching about, what would really happen? I would be slightly disappointed that they didn't make it on time. This is nothing. What is something, not a minor something either, is that this would cause the "exponential rise in difficulty" that has so many of you shitting your pants to be largely delayed by that very same period. Why? BECAUSE KNC PRODUCTS ARE THE PROJECTED CAUSE OF THE FIRST MAJOR JUMP IN DIFFICULTY FROM 28NM ASIC DEVICES!!!!!!Damn, peeps! I've watched people bet MILLIONS on something far more speculative and not shit their pants every ten minutes. Grow a pair, willya? |
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