Not familiar with it, unfortunately. Could you provide a link? (I'm always about learning new things )

Profit is a more slippery word than ROI, but in financial jargon (which ROI is), it does not equate to profit. POSITIVE ROI is profit. ROI is just a measurement of Return On Investment. See the OP, he explained it simply but perfectly. This has been driving me nuts since I first started reading this forum.

If y'all used the correct term, breakeven, you wouldn't cause people like me (and presumably any other person with even a hint of finance or money management experience) to have a rise in blood pressure every time they see "my miner won't make ROI".

There are truly only two scenarios where a mining machine will not make ROI, both rectifiable.

The first is a personal problem. Due to your fears or apathy, you don't plug the damn thing in. It will certainly not make any returns on investment in that case.

The second is a dead unit, easily rectifiable even if you built it yourself. You fix it, or you get it replaced or repaired. Then it will make a ROI.

Now, if you had instead said "My miner won't break even", you at least have a basis for rational argument. The "words evolve" argument is simply sloppy. ROI is an abbreviation of a VERY SPECIFIC term within a very rigid discipline. It is not vernacular, and you won't find it used the way it is here anywhere else. For the first couple of weeks, I found it confusing as hell before I realised that non financial people were bandying around a term they either misconstrued or did not understand. In any particular discipline, words have very specific meanings, and not knowing those meanings is something that sows confusion and doubt, often deliberately. For a good example, watch how creationists will constantly state that evolution is "just a theory" as if theory had the meaning of a postulate in the sciences, instead of it's actual, specific meaning. That case, at least, could arise from a "vernacular" use, in which a theory is actually just speculation (though even in it's vernacular theory implies the scientific definition e.g. the best explanation for the available facts). In the case of ROI, even that excuse don't hold water. It's a very specific term with a very specific meaning.

To the OP, thanks. This is something that twists my brain, and I'm glad it has a thread to point to, because I keep getting jumped when I point out what should be obvious.

I hope not. I meant I am unsure of where you're coming from. You've presented some things that on their face, I do not agree with. Yet you are coming from largely the same (or so it seems) philosophical underpinnings as I am. On a couple of things, I definitely disagree with you, as I had posted previous. I'm simply not sure on the rest. I was following you on another thread, and your posts were about the only ones that interested me. Don't go quiet!

As a staunch individualist, I approve of this post.

Not altogether sure of it's author though. I've been reading you quite a bit lately. You sir, are an interesting fella. I agree with most of your data, and a lot of your conclusions, but I think sometimes you take your ideology too far. But I have not gone all the way down your rabbit hole right now, so I will call that a preliminary observation.

I do not, however, concur with you that bitcoin will become fully cartelized and centralized inevitably. I do see the possibility, but I think what is more likely is that it's slow rate of growth and low cap will eventually relegate it to an alternative currency even more than it currently is, albeit a much higher valuation.

I suspect that the scrypt based altcoins, particularly litecoin (even though I'm amused by and like some of the others) will do the job it's creators envisioned. Act as silver to BTC's gold. With perhaps another acting as copper.

Let the markets play out as they will. I personally think that two seemingly contradictory statements are true. BTC's price ($458/!BTC at this very moment according to Preev.com) is probably a bubble. I suspect it will drop somewhat in the coming week. I also think that just given it's current adoption, BTC is undervalued due to it's scarcity and increasing adoption. I am going to guess (I shan't use the word predict cuz this is off the cuff) that it will hit 1k relatively soon, I'm guessing February or early March.

That's a good idea. I've also noticed you've toned down your responses a lot. I like that your respond to criticism, if not directly, by action. It says good things to your character.

I wouldn't write off this forum too quickly. As someone else said, all things bitcoin seem to wind up here.

Unless things dramatically change for me, it is unlikely that I will be able to purchase one of your units. However, come spring I am likely to be moving near to you (well, about a day's drive), and I would be willing and interested in doing a video documentary of your company and it's products. We're not talking anything fancy here, as I haven't the equipment, but it would be fun to do, and might bring both of us some revenue. It's not something I can promise at this point, assuming you are interested, but it is highly likely that I will be in a position to do so. By then you ought to be on gen 2

As an aside, the inability to purchase has nothing to do with you. My financial house is in ruins.

FTFY. Most of the people of America don't have a clue, though the internet being everywhere is helping.

I do think some of the things you've listed are more accidental and synergistic than deliberate, but unfortunately I have to agree with the bulk of you statement. It sucks being born in America long enough ago to remember when they actually meant some of the things they preach. Or at least had some need to maintain the illusion.

Thanks!

That's perversely kind of cool. If the pols are getting donations, they are probably a bit less likely to try to kill the golden goose. Probably.

any links on that? The congress thing, not the oil. Though both would be rather interesting.

+ infinity!!! I can't add much to that, except that Americans have forgotten the prescient words of one of our founders. "They that can exchange essential liberty for a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

They'll figure it out.

First people invent a thing. Then it causes unintended problems in addition to the solution it was supposed to address. Then they tweak the design to solve the new problems. On success, the cycle repeats. This has been the nature of our species for as long as we are able to reconstruct it.

Right now, China is economically and socially about where the United States was in the early twentieth century, though with much higher levels of available technology. As the average chinese people become more affluent, it will become apparent to them that living in a cesspool is unattractive, and they will start doing things to tone down the polluition. How bad a problem it is at that point is another question, but the pattern has gone on for a long time, and I see no reason why it will not continue. Technology is more often evolutionary than revolutionary, we just tend to see the big jumps over the small ones.

LOL. Cars are indeed hardware... and computers, etcetera. I like gadgets.

The long form would probably bore the hell out of you. The short form is I went through a series of personal disasters over a few years when I found out about bitcoin, then didn't get in on the beginning due to frankly being overworked and overstressed. I'm slowly digging out of a financial mess, I have a young son and a daughter on the way, and very little resources.

But I want in. Avenger is right for once, I have a boner for something I can't afford. But I can and am learning, and I will get the hardware in time. I tend to think in long term strategy. In my younger days I took outrageous risks, sometimes won big and sometimes lost everything. I regret none of it. I regret the risks I didn't take, which is why I get irritated when people get into something as highly speculative as this and freak when it doesn't get them rich over night. It could, but it was never likely.

As to being "long on bitcoin", I think the experiment will succeed. I think that it is the coolest thing to happen to money since gold, and I want to see it through. I suspect that in a few years, it will be one of the go-to options for preserving your wealth, as fiat currencies are subject to constant inflation (as in the expansion of the money supply, not the political horseshit that surrounds it) and failure, whereas bitcoin has a known limit to it's expansion, and can only become more valuable as both saving and exchange if it succeeds.

A positive ROI in less than a year on something this speculative would be considered fantastic in just about any other venture, and there are many options that will overcome the electric cost if the machines are good. Any good business model accounts for expansion and changes in technology. One thing I never see discussed in custom hardware, or really much at all on the forum, is generating your own power. For the price that you paid for a jupiter, you could put together a solar/wind/battery off grid system that would power it for years, and then the miniscule returns would STILL be worth it. Plus, the cost of electricity is a barrier that's quite a bit further out than a year, most likely. If I did have the money, which I will at some point, that is what I would do. Use the initial returns to buy power generation equipment, then invest in faster or more powerful machines as the money allowed. I would also be working very hard on the transactional end of things.

Some of us are playing the long game. As the value of bitcoin rises, it will hopefully offset the difficulty increases. Right now, based on bitcoin prices when the units were first offered for pre-order, you are making more money IN SPITE of the increase than if it had remained the same or driopped. Difficulty is only one factor.

Plus, mining is fun. Not all profits are tangible. If I find a way to lay my hands on one of these machines, I'll run the bitch until it's costing me twice what it brings in in coin. Probably longer, as I am well versed in building off grid power systems. If bitcoin becomes widely adopted as a currency or a commodity, it's value will continue to rise, and those "expensive" coins I mined will appreciate in purchasing power long after the miner has ceased to function.

Frankly, if you are not long on bitcoin, you probably should find a different vehicle to invest your time and money on. If you are, and you are not terminally risk averse, this is a fun and potentially VERY profitable game. I have pissed away a lot more money in the past on things that didn't return any money to me, or if it did I just sunk it in the game again. Racing in the mountains for instance... In the late 80's I probably blew through more than 50K (1988 money) in one summer. Some of it was winnings, which I could have used for something more "profitable", but I instead put it back into my car. Over the course of a year, I killed that car. An outside observer would almost certainly say that I gained nothing and made a bad series of decisions with my money. They would be wrong. I had an immense amount of fun, I learned how to do things with four cylinder engines that at the time almost nobody was doing, I learned how to drive at an insane skill level, and did I mention? I had an immense amount of fun.

Would I do it again, given the same circumstances? Even given the perspective of half a lifetime since then?

HELL YES!

Profit is gain, and every man measures his profit by his own criteria. Money is only one score. If money is your only goal, then you probably are not going to be interested in bleeding edge risks. If it's merely part of the score, then you're in the right game. Even from the sidelines, this is exhilarating. I wouldn't miss it for a 20 kilo bar of gold.

I'm betting long on bitcoin. I think it will bobble a bit, as it has every other time it's gone up a lot, probably stabilize for a few weeks around 250-275, and then slowly climb for a bit, then go up a lot, then bobble a bit... This has been it's pattern since I started paying close attention.

I wish you the best of luck, sir. My only problem is a bit of jealousy. I wanted in on this, and couldn't raise the money. But I am glad that my horse won, even if I and it are a bit ragged right now

And to you "purists" who don't think betting against the exchange rate is a "valid" positive ROI, Stuff it. Your argument makes no economic sense, no moral sense, no technical sense, and reeks of pseudo elitist horseshit. If it were not for the rise in value of bitcoin against other currencies, there would be no ASIC race, no front page news, no widespread adoption, and the experiment would have already failed.

Oh, we know in gross what it holds. No massively inflating fiat currency has ever survived, and it's rare that it's issuing authority doesn't go down with the ship.

And yeah, I know they are more overtly communist, but the core difference between the two socialist flavors, economically, is the hand in glove partnership between key industrial leaders and the state. Communism rejects that, philosophically at least. Haven't the time to read your link yet, so I may edit this in a few days.

He's still mathematically correct. The huge increases CANNOT continue. It's simply impossible. For it to keep the exponential increase, the next company would have to deliver at least twice as much as KnC, and they'd have to do it within a few days. It will level off.

What is nearly impossible to predict is WHEN it will level off. It seems to be starting to now, but this could be a hiccup.

Scares me more that they haven't. Besides, the US is more fascist than communist Good mix of both, though.

BlackArrow has been around for a while. They did FPGA devices prior to this. Never heard any horror stories about 'em, and they seem quite responsive to both customers and shoppers.

Weird. I'll see what's up. I replied to you yesterday, and had one from a few days back. Nothing terribly important. Hopefully they saved and I don't have to retype 'em. The wonders of the interwebs...

EDIT: resent them. Please let me know if you get 'em. Dunno what happened.

That is likely part of it, but a lot of the noise here is not directed at KnC, it's blasting other users, constantly, and often over trivia. Probably just frustration, but still...

KnC has some really shrill customers, ya know?

I've been following the MBP bitfury thread as well, and those units have as many problems, at least, as the KnC units. Both seem to overall be great products, but they have problems and peculiarities. The other thread has mostly remained civil, whereas this one is like a war zone.

Entertaining, but more than a bit over the top.