I give it 50/50 at this point who delivers first between TH and KNC. I think both are likely legit.

Not offhand. There are a number of fabs that could do it. Micron in Boise Idaho, for one. It's not that unusual, but it is more expensive for the setup. Avalon and ASICMiner both stated that they went for the lower spec due to much lower NRE cost. KNC is trying to raise the bar with the more expensive entry.

Eh. I've ordered stuff from overseas before. Usually there is some customs fees involved, almost always handled by the shipper as part of their fees. I've never had it be a problem. For interstate commerce there have been multiple cases going all the way back to pre War Between the States cases stating that sales taxes cannot be assessed unless the purchase is made in state. States do keep trying to get around that, but are rarely successful for more than a minute before getting slapped down. Still, at worst you'd be looking at an additional six or seven percent. I think the EU guys have a tougher go with this one, as they all do VAT, which is a really outrageous tax scheme. Luckily our Congresscritters so far haven't been bright enough to come out with anything as blatantly confiscatory as that and get away with it.

I am not an expert, however I know something of the process.

First off, there seems to be a "feel" in the bitcoin community that ASIC's are magical, new, crazy machines. They are not. What's new is adapting them to this specific application.

So, yeah, the ASIC layout should be almost the same as the FPGA layout. Using FPGA's to prototype is nothing new either.

Also, given that ASIC chips are used in a wide variety of things, they don't have to reinvent the wheel or even do a full mask. There might be some technological gains from doing this from the ground up, but for this sort of application (essentially doing one calculation over and over again) the gain is severely outweighed by the cost. Basically the engineering work is already done aside from the embedded application. Making the mask is expensive, not groundbreaking.

ORSoC already does 28nm ASIC chips. They just need the current team to do the last couple of layers over an existing design. This is not trivial, but as Yifu has already demonstrated, it's within the knowledge and capabilities of talented amateurs. ORSoC is not an amateur group.

The biggest likely hangup isn't adapting the design, it's getting it to their fabricator on time, and hoping that the fab doesn't stick their thumbs up their asses. I have not read daggateo's report yet, but I have little doubt about KNC and ORSoC being able to engineer the thing and going to fab in the timeline they are aiming for. I do have some doubts about a major fab giving them the priority they need. But again, they are an established company and therefore have more clout than most of the people currently doing bitcoin ASIC miners. I would say a month past their target is reasonable, two months even would be ok. It is highly unlikely that much will have changed by then, given the track record of the other players. The Avalon chips are about the only wildcard in that. I can't see BFL getting up to steam that fast, if ever, and the rest of the builders that I am aware of are either on a similar schedule or are awaiting the Avalon chips.

While as KS keeps pointing out, KNC is NOT ORSoC, they are nevertheless directly affiliated and do have some skin in the game, even if only reputation. But rep means a lot.

I am unfortunately not able to order at this time myself, but if I were I'd take this gamble. And I am a fairly conservative man.

So is giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Manning's "treason", as patriotism will always be labeled, is minor compared to that REGULARLY committed by the government trying him.

Actually, under the constitutional definition of treason, Manning would have to be proved to have done harm against the STATES, not the FedGov, and to have caused harm by giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Despite these arguments being deliberately absented at the show trial.

They have a better case for embezzelment than treason.

As for your comments about the proper chain of command, those are the very people that are outed by these leaks. Telling Al Capone that he's doing something questionable to his face is imprudent. Catch-22.

I'd like to think you aren't as ignorant of the facts as you appear. But I've unfortunately met a lot of you flag wavin' "my country, right or wrong" sorts, and you probably are. YOU are a bigger threat to the people of these former states than Mr. Manning, OR Julian Assange, who is NOT the "enemy". Last I checked, Australia (and all commonwealth nations) are formal allies of the US Imperial court.

I know that Terrahash has been talking directly to BkkCoins. Don't know what was said, of course, but they seemed pretty confident that they would be able to do this.

I've gotten behind on the technology, unfortunately. But to my knowledge an EMP generator that will have an effect great enough to do anything other than piss off some people on the ground still requires a nuclear blast. You can make a very small device that would be an interesting battlefield weapon, as it would fry unshielded electronics in it's line of sight, but that really wouldn't do anything to major electronic infrastructure. It might stop a charging tank, though. Then again it might not as most modern mechanized infantry is shielded by transuranics which would mitigate if not completely negate such a small pulse.

Such a device would be pure fun in a traffic stop, though

yes, that's a FOBS system. In a way, it's worse. The 14 minute DEW alert is based on ICBM's which have a much higher and longer orbit. Against a FOBS attack, the interval to decide NOT to launch a retaliatory strike (which is the way the response is structured) is MUCH smaller. Maybe five minutes.

My biggest point on this, other than the irrelevancy of bitcoin or any other currency, is that in the interval between launch and response, there is literally no way to determine whether that missile is aimed to launch an attack against electronics or kill a city.

In terms of financial devastation, a monster solar flare is probably more of a concern as it's effects would be at least half the globe, depending on duration. But other than creating chaos, it would hardly be a world stopping event. Any fool who thinks they can pull off an EMP strike without direct nuclear reprisal just hasn't done the math. Unfortunately, a whole hell of a lot of politicians on all sides aren't too good about the math. By some strange fortune, none of the real looney-tunes have gotten hold of the launch codes yet.

Of all the nuclear powers on earth, I fear North Korea the least, because they have such primitive delivery systems. Our warning against them would be pretty good, unless they tried to pull off a FOBS attack from a boat, and frankly I think China would then erase them from the map before anyone else responded. I also think that the current "dear leader" is young, but not stupid. He knows this. They are playing a game of brinkmanship and it will end badly, but probably not horribly from a global standpoing. China is unlikely to use their nukes as anything but a deterrent. Russia and the USA likewise, unless McCain somehow gets hold of the launch codes. India probably falls in that category. That basically leaves two major wildcards. Pakistan and Israel. Pakistan is much like North Korea in that respect, so probably less of a threat than most, except for their love of pissing off India. Israel is the nuclear power than frightens me the most.

Israel has never openly admitted to having a nuclear arsenal and are not signatory to the non proliferation agreements. They have hinted, more than once, that they would be willing to use nukes against their neighbors. That they do have them, and what numbers, is an open secret. Their arsenal is not huge, but they could absolutely devastate much of the middle east. They could also easily reach Russia and China, and a great deal of Africa. This is not even counting their submarines. In my view, the only thing that restrains them is that they are not suicidal, for the most part. But they do have itchy trigger fingers.

Despite a great deal of chest pounding by the bastards that rule my country, Iran is not a threat. Even if they could or have developed some small scale weapons, they have no real way to deliver them against anyone but their neighbors. And they are painfully aware of how easy it would be for Israel to remove them from the map with their large and modern nuclear arsenal.

I have been and remain a proponent of nuclear electric power, but the bomb needs to go. Somehow, we as a species need to figure out a way to put an end to the existence of these weapons. They serve NO military purpose. They are and always have been a purely political terror weapon. While in a given area, poison gas has a longer and more devastating effect, there's no chance of such weapons ever going global, and mitigation is trivial by comparison.

Given the larger picture, I see any worry about whether a currency, whatever it's merits, might survive a nuclear attack to be insultingly trivial.

You blew it. Have to strip you of your title. The quote was "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing." 

I'm not a lawyer, but my wife is.

This is a pretty standard disclaimer. It doesn't stop you from seeking remedy, and it doesn't absolve them of financial liability altogether either. It's a wartime clause, essentially. If the factory gets bombed you can't hold KNC responsible for being unable to deliver. That sort of thing. I've seen very similar clauses in a number of contracts involving international commerce, and you'll see more of it as the world goes more mad.

If a corporate officer has stated that refunds will be issued, and under what terms, that should supercede this clause in that specific scenario, while still covering their ass in the event of disruptions beyond their forseeable control. I don't find it troubling. Granted, I don't (yet) have any skin in the game.

Very good, sir. You are hereby declared a French Noble, assuming you've forgotten nothing.

One can never tell the age of forum members, so I'll just flat out state that I grew up believing the world was going to go up in a mushroom cloud before I was 18. I'm just barely old enough to remember those stupid "duck and cover" drills.

But strangely enough, both the Soviet Union and the United States managed to relax their Nuclear trigger fingers, and even stranger Israel managed to restrain themselves. By 1986, the world had cooled down quite a bit. Probably because my generation and the one just previous to it had studied this shit to death, and found that there is NO EXCUSE for a nuclear exchange. Only madmen build these weapons, and only madmen would pull the trigger. Initially they didn't understand the long term dangers. They don't have that excuse anymore. Unfortunately you can't put the genie back in the bottle.

EMP bombs are a proposal by the madmen. There is NO SUCH THING as a limited nuclear war. As I noted in my previous post, and as Myrkul has noted above via Einstein.

Reread my first response here. It's a pretty accurate overview of SAC/NORAD's STANDARD response to a nuclear first strike. And again, please note that the delivery system for a "pure" EMP bomb is a Fractional Orbit Bombarment System missile carrying several Multiple Entry Reentry Vehicles, each carrying a ten to fifteen kiloton nuclear bomb fused to explode just above the breatheable atmosphere. The EMP burst is a SIDE EFFECT of a nuclear chain reaction. Ya can't have the one without the other. The difference between an ELINT blackout attack and the destruction of a city is a few thousand feet, not the type of bomb.
Yes, I know they have refined them somewhat, but not that much.

The biggest point here remains that the early warning systems, on all nuclear armed sides, CANNOT TELL THE DIFFERENCE between an EMP attack and a full on first strike. Again, madmen's choices. If you don't strike back you commit suicide. If you do strike back, you commit suicide. Even the deep shelters and long term planning of civil defense agencies and individual preppers are no guaranty. Nuclear war offers only ghastly uncertainties and the prospect of a world devastated beyond repair.

One final point is that only nation states ever come up with such ghastly weapons. They are not content to eat your flesh and drink your blood, they want the ability to destroy all life.

Some day, some mad fuck is going to push the button. We NEED to get off planet colonies if the species is to both survive AND keep it's accumulated knowledge and wisdom. Frankly, after a nuclear exchange, in the unlikely event that you survive, clean water, food, and lead for rad shielding will probably be the main currencies of exchange for the two or three percent that survive.

Alright, let's play with this a little bit. Just to show how absurd even CARING about currency is in that situation. Bitcoin is small cap. The major fiat exchanges would be momentarily wiped out as well.

But who cares?

For these devices to work without widespread radiation poisoning and a humongous shockwave, they have to be airburst at rather extreme altitude. This will require a spread of either FOBS or ICBM missles. Since early warning satellites and radars cannot tell that the missile showing the profile of a nuclear launch is an EMP device (since it would be riding exactly the same vehicle as a MIRV capable ICBM or FOBS) The monitoring systems would go to DEFCON 1 or it's equivalent. That means nuclear war IS ON.

The most common counter plan is a counterpunch. General launch on the infrastructure, military, and political targets of the launching nation. That means a devastating counterstrike with a large portion of everything the counterstriking country has. Land, air, and submarine based. And RIGHT FUCKING NOW, becuase in the best case scenario they have 14 minutes to respond before riding out the initial strike.

This is the basis of the Mutually Assured Destruction argument, and ALL current nuclear powers subscribe to it, with the possible exception of North Korea.

EMP is a transient effect. Sure, it's damaging, but not for very long. It can be recovered from. It's only real use would be if they were somehow confident that they could achieve a first strike ahead of the pre-programmed counterstrike. In 1956, that was a possibility. Now it's not. The robots would fire the missiles.

The only real variables in nuclear warfare are whether some madman starts it, and whether anyone is sane enough to stop it after the first wave.

Well, actually there is a third. Whether or not any life remains above ground after the exchange.

If you can, give the man some coin. He deserves a beer or three

Patience! If I can fake it, you can too! 

Rather good analysis, and just about exactly my position.

OTOH, it appears that in the background they have been doing rather a lot of groundwork, and while the updates haven't been great, they have been substantive. My gut tells me Terrahash and KNC are both for real, just not sure which to go with. Being in the United States is a serious pro for me, as I have little experience with international shipping and no resources to back up my investment should something get tangled up. Santa Clara would be a weekend trip for me by the time they are ready to ship, Stockholm wouldn't even be within my ability.

I'm fairly neutral on the escrow issue, and very much in favor of paypal/cc orders.

And of course there is the Avalon wildcard, but that's pretty much true of everyone coming on board right now except KNC, and I don't have any way of knowing if their partner can deliver any faster or better. ORSoC is of course a less amateur company than Avalon, as Yifu has repeatedly reiterated they jumped in and just did it, but KNC is probably on par with Avalon for experience in this sort of thing. If I were merely a spectator this would be a lot more fun

I really wish I could. That's my problem, not yours. Just bear with me :p English is the only language I'm proficient in. I can make myself understood, verbally, in Mexican Spanish, but that's about it.

One last thing, though. As a much younger man, I spent a year homeless, mostly in the wilderness living a hunter/gatherer lifestyle. The circumstances that got me there are long, boring, and not the point. I did choose to do it deliberately, and I had a great deal of fun. In that I was not against a clock, I was not as busy as within human society. But I probably worked harder physically than any other time in my life. I don't regret doing it in the least, and am certain that I could do it again if the need arose, but the desire will not. It's not an ideal life by any means. Though it probably is a good experience for anyone at least once.

All of society is an artificial construct, and that is not in itself a bad thing. Just that the construct needs constant revision and pruning. I think that governance was necessary at one time. I also think we are CAPABLE of growing beyond it while not discarding the things that ARE good in the societal constructs.

And with that, I really must stop with the internet!

Thanks for the well wishes, and the same to you.

Me too. But this is the first time with a young family, and the wife has never been out of her bubble before. Plus the move is forced by poverty

But still, it's always an adventure, and I'm going to a place I'm very familiar with, and back to some very dear and loyal friends. Thanks for the well wishes.

Kevin Biomech.

I really wish I hadn't got into this right now! I'm out of time. I leave tomorrow morning and there are a million and one things to be done. So I won't be replying anymore today, and probably won't be back for a couple of weeks. I love it when people make me think.

All of ya, go right on and keep pickin' at me while I'm gone. I'll be working on some stuff to post. Probably start a couple new threads, as this one is going everywhere.

Zarathrusta, I disagree severely with your analysis, though I do see where you're coming from now. I think the language barrier has been my problem. Your english is a bit confusing. At any rate, when I get back online, I'll do a bunch of catching up.

Cheers!

Kevin Biomech.

Thanks!

That answered everything. At least till the next time I run into a wall