Right now this is true, but it's also true that right now the diff is rising exponentially. The costs, after the NRE's are recovered, will come down to what the market will bear for long term returns. If you have the cash, right now, it might be worth it to preorder. I personally think that window is past until the next generation of chips.

This doesn't make your argument invalid. This is one where there are few clear cut answers. I personally think that as time goes by and bitcoin continues to gain traction, the big boys will get in on the asic game, or even some new sort of application that makes it work. The current race is against power consumption, as it's now obvious that they can and will make seriously scary amounts of calculation.

You seem to be pretty mature, but unfortunately that's no indicator of age anymore. So, if you do remember this, it's all good, and if not? Well.

In 1979 IBM announced the original IBM PC. I can't recall the price, but it was way above what most other computer vendors were offering. Just like THIS race, there were dozens of viable competitors, and IBM was seen as a "has been" even though they had developed a great deal of the tech that went into the nascent personal computer revolution. Most of us back then would likely have bet on Apple as the dominant one, since the Apple ][ and ][ + were on the market and 'only' about a thousand dollars for a 64k computer. The PC generated a lot of buzz because it was supposed to ship with 128k expandable to 256k and have an optional hard drive. but it was like three times the price.

We were wrong. The open architecture made up for all it's other shortcomings and by 1982 if a computer wasn't "IBM PC compatible" it was an also ran. The price had dropped by over 1/2 at that point, due to advances in photolithography and improved efficiencies in hardware production, and straight up demand.

I see the same thing happening with bitcoin. I think that in a year's time there will be petahash units at reasonable prices for the hobbyist, and that the "pre order" game will be largely done. I also think the early adopters will not get screwed the way some of them think they will, as the difficulty would have to rise exponentially for a couple of years before the machines became unprofitable. Those that think they have to make a positive ROI in the first couple of months are either mathematically challenged or just plain greedy. The latter I can at least get my head around, the former requires a lack of real world knowledge. Exponential growth on anything from bacteria to hashrate is an unsustainable paradigm. It WILL level off. Then, it will likely grow in spikes, just like memory devices and computational power has been in the computer industry at large.

Also, due to it's deflationary nature, there are really only two possible long term outcomes for bitcoin. It will go into the dustbin of history, or it's value will increase with increasing adoption. There really isn't a third road here. If you are only aiming for short term gains (this isn't really aimed at You, just a general statement) then you are basically betting that bitcoin will fail. In which case, why buy the machines at any price? If you're betting long term, as I am, you have to weigh the costs RIGHT NOW vs. waiting until production and competition ramp up. That is indeed time sensitive, and for my coin, right now watch and wait makes more sense.

how many logical fallacies does this post embody?

Anyway, I was quoting someone else's tagline, which I agree with. I'm on this forum because I find bitcoin immensely interesting, I'm in this subthread because I find the subject matter interesting, and I'm engaging in these arguments because they are being presented in a way I cannot find any legitmate anarchist or even libertarian would ever endorse.

As to how that relates to bitcoin (the quote), that should be obvious. Both the humour and the truth of it.

In a modern democracy (the few that actually ARE democracies rather than thinly disguised empires like the United States) 51 percent of those who have the franchise can completely disenfranchise the remaining 49 percent without repercussion which is a violation of the non aggression principle. Thus, I am opposed to democracy. I have many other reasons to oppose it as well, which I'm not currently inclined to go into in detail. Suffice it to say that I am an individual, and proud of it. Democracy does not recognize that there is such a thing as an individual, only groups. Groups are statistical constructs. I'm all for voluntary cooperation, but such is nigh impossible in a democracy.

Worse still, democracy is mob rule. The loudest voice generally rules the mob, so it becomes dictatorial to the whims of the few very quickly. It happened in Athens, and it's happened everywhere else that democracy has been the "rule of law" as well. Democracy is about as stable as nitroglycerin in sunlight, but far less useful.

If you are going to cherry pick quotes, at least have the decency to indicate SOME of the context.

While I disagree with FirstAscent's position, they can at least post up a cogent argument. You just seem to run off at the keys with no goal aside from provocation. It's hard to hit a moving target, and a pain in the ass to debug the logical fallacies, misrepresentations, and emoting of someone who either has no position or just likes to sling mud. 

Presented for the pure edification of your miserable soul: http://www.csun.edu/~dgw61315/fallacies.html

Ok, this is hearsay, but I have heard from a number of people that Sam is very responsive. I think that even given the policy stated, there is a good chance that your special case might be sufficient for him to refund you. I would email him if you haven't already.

Sorry to hear of your loss. Take the time to grieve if you possibly can.

-Kevin

Ya know, I think this is the first time I've seen this. I'm a little stunned. Your post makes sense and I largely agree with you. Two things I didn't think would ever happen.

The pre-order game made sense a few months ago, if you could get in on the first wave. At this point, wait and see coupled with only buy "in hand" hardware seems a wiser game.

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse

True. But the major rise, if it comes, will come from KnC delivering (this round).

Sorry. It's 6ish AM here, I just got up. That was way more rambling than I intended. Now I've had a cup of coffee.

What I was asking and trying to illustrate, is why do so many of you care if they are a day or even a week late, as long as they deliver? It's a black eye for them, and for the "yes" side of the bitbet, but overall should not have much effect on your mining. Because KNC is the prime mover this time around in the projected rise in difficulty. If they are slightly delayed, so is the rise in difficulty.

As for the BFL, that was just a dig at 'em. If anybody is foolish enough to take THAT bet, I want a piece of the action

I personally think that KnC is likely to miss by a day, but they very well could make the conditions of the bet, if they have ten or so units ready to go on monday and a few people picking them up in person. As I've mentioned before, I have no skin in the game. That being said, I want them to succeed. This is the horse I would have backed if I'd been able to raise the cash.

EDIT: Missed your instant edit

See, this is the part I don't get. This ain't personal, Feebackloop, you just hit my WTF threshold on something I see a lot of people posting here and on the main KNC thread.

The way I see it, the biggest part of the exponential jump in difficulty is based on KNC this month. It was Bitfury last month, and will be again in october, along with KNC. If KNC is a few days late, the way I see it, the only people harmed by it are those who gambled on bitbet on KnC's side, and to a small degree, Knc themselves. (because if they are a few days late, they are still ahead of every other asic vendor out there so far except bitfury). As long as they deliver the product, a few days delay will not affect YOUR ROI any differently than them shipping on time, or to a negligible amount.

Unless you actually think BFL will fill their backlog in the next 5-10 days... If you do, any of you, PM me with how much you're willing to bet on it. I need money.

I have to add one more speculation. Just because I'm twisted.

They got 'em all done yesterday. Sent the first days orders to ship today. Then they all logged in here and watched half the forum have a heart attack while smoking a big spliff.

Hey, it's what I would do

NAP is an adjunct. It is the logical expression of a peaceful warrior, not the suicide clause you seem to want it to be. Democracy is mob rule, BY DEFINITION. Mobs never make good decisions, and if they do by some miracle, the next one will negate it.

I have been debating anarchist philosophy for over a decade on the side of anarchism, and NOT ONCE have I seen someone who was actually an anarchist posit such a crazy thing. I'm sorry, but I just can't buy that anyone would be that stupid in print unless they were simply trying to provoke you.

So, yeah, I'll revisit it. If some dipshit is juggling knives on the inflatable life raft that I am on, I'll ask him politely to stop. If he don't, I'll shoot him before you have to. I intend to live. He's endangering me. If he is merely stupid, give him a chance. If he's a deliberate menace? Feed him to the fucking sharks. (BTW, "lifeboat situations" are often used as red herrings in debate. In truth, it is such an unlikely event that it only would ever come up IN debate. )

NAP is part of an ethical framework that eschews the initiation of violence UNLESS IT IS NECESSARY TO DEFEND ONESELF. thus Non AGGRESSION principle. It is not pacifism, as a pacifist would not stop the juggler and simply accept his fate. Most political systems either explicitly or implicitly reject the NAP because they CANNOT exist without massive fraud, theft, and violence. This is especially true of Democracy. If taken to it's logical conclusions, if three men said that YOU should be killed, it would be your duty to allow them to take your life. Anarchy, and NAP, stand in opposition to that. Or that they should take your property. Or deliberately endanger you. Or reduce you to a component in the great god Society that the democraticly minded all seem to bow down before.

I fall in the other 20 percent, though I question your figures. I *was* a socialist when I was quite young, but there are more problems than answers there. Socialism leads to totalitarianism or worse yet, democracy. Don't recall who, but somebody here has a good tagline: "Democracy: The original 51% attack". I can expand on that, but I can't improve on it.

No.

Bargraphics is another guy who was very vocal about Terrahash. He's kind of a loudmouth.

Personally, I found him amusing, but several people took him way serious, and now it seems he's killing his old posts. I dunno what to think of that.

Hey, I'm just tryin' to help! Y'all were saying that the actual hashrate might equal the number of pages in this thread when they ship...



I'm quite chill, actually, with no skin in the game. I'm just enjoying (and participating in) the show. I actually think they will make it. If they miss by a day or two, nobody is hurt except the "yes" voters on the bitbet.

Been beat to death, but you are wrong. No ROI is NO return on investment. Either it don't hash, you don't plug it in, or you refund. Negative ROI means it did generate coins, just not as much as it cost (You know, like government "investments"). Breakeven is the beginning of positive ROI. After that your ROI is pure profit.

If you are going to use financial terminology, you should at least know what it means.

Really? How'd you get out of paying taxes?

Never underesitmate megalomaniacs! That's MY tribe, dammit!

Even if your reasons suck, it's good to be an optimist.

That being said, I can see several positives from this already, not necessarily in any order.

1. People like me learned a hell of a lot about modern circuit design just by being spectators. If BKKcoins completely left the building, he still contributed a lot of education to a very interested amateur.

2. In that same spirit, he attracted a lot of other really smart and talented people.

3. Following from that, those same people learned to work together toward a common goal. Doing it again should be easier as new chips/technologies become available. As smart as a lot of you are, you still get to learn from each other, and each other's mistakes. Winning situation right there.
4. Y'all demonstrated that a complex project like this can be done out in the open with minimal funding by people, not faceless corporations. (I'm not anti corporation, but I do get tired of the idea that only the "established" players have a shot at anything)

5. If it gets finished and works out, the design can probably be modified to accept Bitfury and other similar chips, or at least the experience in making this happen will help shorten the development time.

6. It's fun to watch, and if I had the resources, would be fun to play!

I can think of a bunch more. I think this was a good thing, despite how some of it turned out. I am frankly somewhat worried about Chris, as him just vanishing like this seems very out of character.

Were I to get back in the political fray, I would probably back small l libertarians. Not the LP, as they have shown themselves to be traitors to the cause they allegedly champion even before Murray walked away in disgust. Rothbard's libertarian vision is similar to my anarchic one. But, unlike Mr. Rothbard, I have come to the conclusion that the system cannot be changed for the better from within, because it works too well for those who run it. The barrier to entry, in the US, isn't money. Ron Paul pretty well proved that. It's price is much higher. It's your soul.

Which brings me to your last paragraph. I am an atheist, and I disagree that there is a god necessary for morals. That being said, I'm not a "positive" atheist, but rather simply an unbeliever after having spent half my life searching for a way to believe in a benevolent god. I think this thread is probably the wrong place, but I'd like to hear your views on the subject. Your post, unlike those who subscribe to most any religion, showed some thought. I gave up on the idea of a god that wants to be worshiped a good while back, but I'm still open, somewhat, to the idea that one might exist.

However, the ideas of basic morality are easily derived from human experience, and to a lesser degree, the non human world around us. Things just work better when you have an ethical framework. Not necessarily FASTER, but better.

-KB.

Oops. Missed it

could be fun.

So, you in?