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1241
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 03:39:14 PM
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Basically, yes and yes.
The supply and demand formula tells us that when there is a limited supply (or infinite demand, like for example hospital treatment for a life threatening heart attack), the price goes up much, much faster/higher when demand increases then in a normal market situation, it's called inelastic supply.
Now assume that about two percent of the world population owns bitcoin today, and the price is already at 60k, then just imagine what the price will be when 50 percent of the worlds population owns bitcoin, and add institutional investors on top of that, then 1 bil doesn't seem to far away anymore.
Well, the demand part is also important. Bitcoin doesn't solve "life threatening" problems. I always like to go to first principles. Supply and demand as it relates to Bitcoin is not a first order effect. It always comes down to one person trading with another on an exchange. Multiply that by thousands of someones and supply/demand effects on price falls out of it but it's a stochastic effect. Sentiment is always going to dominate. If everyone absolutely agrees that a Bitcoin is worth $60000, it doesn't matter what the supply/demand is, that's what it's going to trade at. Fortunately, everyone has a different idea of what it's worth and over time, those who believe it has higher value are winning. Well, an increasing demand for the foreseeable future is of course a given. I really shouldn't have to spell everything out in this thread like you were some kind of n00bs that needs to have everything explained. And " If everyone absolutely agrees that a Bitcoin is worth $60000, it doesn't matter what the supply/demand is, that's what it's going to trade at. Fortunately, everyone has a different idea of what it's worth and over time, those who believe it has higher value are winning." That IS how supply and demand works. |
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1244
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 02:25:37 PM
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things. My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess. The only way I see your " $1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!Why? Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil? The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable. I very much doubt that. So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%? I'm clearly not understanding something here... Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth. Basically, yes and yes. The supply and demand formula tells us that when there is a limited supply (or infinite demand, like for example hospital treatment for a life threatening heart attack), the price goes up much, much faster/higher when demand increases then in a normal market situation, it's called inelastic supply. Now assume that about two percent of the world population owns bitcoin today, and the price is already at 60k, then just imagine what the price will be when 50 percent of the worlds population owns bitcoin, and add institutional investors on top of that, then 1 bil doesn't seem to far away anymore. |
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1245
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 02:06:51 PM
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95.2 million barrels of oil was produced daily in 2019.
The price was something like 65 USD a barrel.
95,2 million times 65 USD is a lot more than the world wide wealth of 10 million dollars, how is that possible? there is no way people is going to be able to buy all that oil, there is not enough money in the world.
World wide wealth is not 10 million dollars. No of course not, it's not my words, it's apparently Hal Finney's |
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1246
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 10:12:49 AM
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things. My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess. The only way I see your " $1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!Why? Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil? The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable. I very much doubt that. |
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1247
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 09:09:55 AM
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard... Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator. You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things. My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess. |
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1248
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 08:43:06 AM
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition? I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned. |
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1249
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 08:32:52 AM
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95.2 million barrels of oil was produced daily in 2019.
The price was something like 65 USD a barrel.
95,2 million times 65 USD is a lot more than the world wide wealth of 10 million dollars, how is that possible? there is no way people is going to be able to buy all that oil, there is not enough money in the world.
Oh, wait, they did, because that's not how you count in economics.
His strength was in coding, not economics.
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1250
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 08:14:48 AM
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I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.
So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'? I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.
So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth? Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator. Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world" To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth. Edited. |
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1253
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 06:35:44 AM
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You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:
"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"
Yes. Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation. We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations. Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers. I agree. But if you look at the FRED M2 money velocity chart I posted, you can see that up to 1997, monetary expansion policy actually seemed to buoy the economy even in the face of falling wages (adjusted for inflation, of course.) They decided to make personal credit cheaper and cheaper to fill in the wage gap, so that Average Joes would continue spending into the real economy despite their slowing wage growth and growing personal debt load. And so continuing to expand the money supply and cheaper credit worked for a while. Until 1997. And then it didn't anymore. You can also see on the chart where consumer spending fell completely off the cliff. We are now at a point where wages are no longer increasing (to keep up with *real* inflation), mom and pop cannot take on any more personal debt to fill the gap, and thus all consumer spending has fallen to a minimum life support level. What the Fed doesn't seem to grasp is, all the free stimmy checks or even UBI in the world won't make a lasting turn in consumer spending. Stimmies are just a temporary bump. Only wages going back up relative to *real* inflation will do that. And that just ain't gonna happen. What the Fed is doing now (sending money directly to consumers) smacks of desperation. It's a joke. The sad thing is that none of what you have described addresses the root cause of the problem, which is our perpetual growth model of economics. Everything is about "how do we continue to grow" instead of "shouldn't we stop growing at some point?". Only cancer grows forever. And maybe Bitcoin. hmmmm  I think if you scratch the surface, you will find that Ariemoller is concerned about the lack of growth of one particular kind of population... If you are going to debate you have to stop making things up. I'm not worried about the lack of growth, we, humanity, will fix that, just as we are now fixing the overgrowth. And I have nowhere mentioned any particular population, that remark says a lot about you and nothing about me. |
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1254
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 04:16:04 AM
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He might have had some valid points but he lost me when he started with, " I fully understand that our financial system isn't perfect but at least it's real." Exactly! Humans use too much energy - even the ones using the real financial system. Mechanical/biological POV: boiled down, it's how much of a quasi-monoculture of humans can this planet sustain at various levels of mutual comfort? If we were in the low-mid hundreds of myriads, no problem: have all the tantalium you want - or buffalo, or whatever you can realistically find. Just a matter of price. Oops. Be it the economy or just a kind of behavioral physics, we end up doing hat many other animals - or plants - do when left alone in a place where they "just can": multiply and grow in shapes that often are exponential up to a ceiling, much like an S of sorts. But I digress. There are S-curves that spin more pleasant thought, and this gentlemen. Nah, population growth have stopped, the average ratio planetwide is two children per family, and it is dropping, in a not to distant future a diminishing population will be our biggest problem. The reason it doesn't look like that is because the older generations that are now dying of where fewer in number then the ones being born now, when that tip of what used to be a pyramid but now is an obelisk is gone it will be a tower that will slowly turn in to a upside down pyramid. Interesting. Every year over the last 50 years we have gone up in population. I think the last set of negative years was during world war two. Maybe you are correct we should know in under ten-twenty years time. It was clear already 11 years ago, watch this lecture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08ESo I looked at last 32 years and peak numbers were in 1985 to 1992 which would be a result of the baby boomers having kids. so world war two did a double tap in population growth but the 1985-1992 babied now 28 to 35 are not having a lot of kids. So maybe we do drop over the next 10-20 and reach negative growth. Looks possible. |
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1255
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 03:52:35 AM
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He might have had some valid points but he lost me when he started with, " I fully understand that our financial system isn't perfect but at least it's real." Exactly! Humans use too much energy - even the ones using the real financial system. Mechanical/biological POV: boiled down, it's how much of a quasi-monoculture of humans can this planet sustain at various levels of mutual comfort? If we were in the low-mid hundreds of myriads, no problem: have all the tantalium you want - or buffalo, or whatever you can realistically find. Just a matter of price. Oops. Be it the economy or just a kind of behavioral physics, we end up doing hat many other animals - or plants - do when left alone in a place where they "just can": multiply and grow in shapes that often are exponential up to a ceiling, much like an S of sorts. But I digress. There are S-curves that spin more pleasant thought, and this gentlemen. Nah, population growth have stopped, the average ratio planetwide is two children per family, and it is dropping, in a not to distant future a diminishing population will be our biggest problem. The reason it doesn't look like that is because the older generations that are now dying of where fewer in number then the ones being born now, when that tip of what used to be a pyramid but now is an obelisk is gone it will be a tower that will slowly turn in to a upside down pyramid. Interesting. Every year over the last 50 years we have gone up in population. I think the last set of negative years was during world war two. Maybe you are correct we should know in under ten-twenty years time. It was clear already 11 years ago, watch this lecture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08EThis one might be even better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78Or just jump to the conclusion here. https://youtu.be/ezVk1ahRF78?t=616 |
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1257
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 03:01:09 AM
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He might have had some valid points but he lost me when he started with, " I fully understand that our financial system isn't perfect but at least it's real." Exactly! Humans use too much energy - even the ones using the real financial system. Mechanical/biological POV: boiled down, it's how much of a quasi-monoculture of humans can this planet sustain at various levels of mutual comfort? If we were in the low-mid hundreds of myriads, no problem: have all the tantalium you want - or buffalo, or whatever you can realistically find. Just a matter of price. Oops. Be it the economy or just a kind of behavioral physics, we end up doing hat many other animals - or plants - do when left alone in a place where they "just can": multiply and grow in shapes that often are exponential up to a ceiling, much like an S of sorts. But I digress. There are S-curves that spin more pleasant thought, and this gentlemen. Nah, population growth have stopped, the average ratio planetwide is two children per family, and it is dropping, in a not to distant future a diminishing population will be our biggest problem. The reason it doesn't look like that is because the older generations that are now dying of where fewer in number then the ones being born now, when that tip of what used to be a pyramid but now is an obelisk is gone it will be a tower that will slowly turn in to a upside down pyramid. |
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1258
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 02:52:55 AM
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You know, my brain's wheels are turning right now with a thought:
"Is an inflationary money policy the driver behind the desire to endlessly consume?"
Yes. Our financial system depends on perpetual growth. Since all money is debt-based, we are always creating more of it to service the interest from having borrowed it into existence. If all debts were to be paid off simultaneously, there wouldn't be enough money in the world to actually do it. So we keep creating more. This is monetary inflation, which eventually leads to price inflation unless you monetize more goods, meaning you make more things available for purchase for the newly created money, thereby balancing out supply & demand and preventing price inflation. We are being driven towards endless consumption in order to perpetuate the status quo. We are always to be two missed paychecks from destitution so we will latch onto any false form of material happiness marketed towards our fears and frustrations. Remember this the next time some smug douchebag pulls the "muh EnErGy cOnSumpTIon" card against Bitcoin. Deflationary crypto may yet be the biggest boon for the environment. It turns people from consumers into hodlers. Disagree, growth is at it's core driven by ever increasing efficiency, lately accelerated by cheap energy. Consuming is a feature of our brain, not a bug. The constant search for food and things to make clothes and shelter from is what made us survive and in the end become the most successful animal on the planet, modern day consuming is just a continuation of that behavior, it's hard coded in our brains. Bitcoin won't stop that behavior, it will just postpone it for a while, and when we do spend the money we will spend so much more of it, IE we will consume much more than before. For example buying lakes or building small private states in Texas. |
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1259
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 02, 2021, 02:34:47 AM
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Can you stop Bitcoin going to 6 digits ? With the rate we have been going up for the last three cycles, and considering how few people and investors own any bitcoin, I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate. I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money. We haven't even entered the s curve yet, we have an explosion ahead of us. I think we will top somewhere around 100k to 200k this cycle and somewhere around 1 mil next cycle, and the one thereafter will be around 10 mil very ish |
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