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1301  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2021, 11:34:42 AM

Yeah, right, like the world gives a shit what happens in Turkey.
1302  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2021, 09:07:39 PM
vaping can both make it easier and harder to quit cigs. easier because, unlike a cig, it wont stay lit till its done (cigs add chemicals to keep it burning, contrast that with a cigar with no chemicals.. it goes out when you leave it). so, light a cig and you pretty much are forced to smoke the whole thing as its gonna burn down to the filter anyway. plus it coats everything with that nice orange gunk.. (smokers just look at your computer innards and fans.. eeeew man mine were soooo disgusting).

vaping. press the button, inhale or once or twice, put it back in your pocket nice and neat, done. and those subzero mods can put out clouds of vapour of sizes that you have to see to believe. and no ash, no ashtrays that stink, no orange coating in the rooms etc. of course theres maintenance - cleaning, replacing seals, coils etc. but thats was actually an attraction to me.. kinda calming doing coils maintenance and whatnot.

[...]

I'm against smoking in general, but the way you describe vaping makes me want to try it. I see colleagues and friends with these vaping machines that look so high-tech, like some kind of weapon that came out of an alien ship or something. OLED displays, coil resistances, wattage, energy reserves.  Cheesy

I wouldn't touch these with a stick. There are findings that the liquids based on oils containing vitamin-E harm the lung tissue.
Oil based vapor is that thick, white foggy very opaque vapor. In comparison, vaped herbs produce very light, transparent vapor just like when you heat up water on a stove.

I use a mobile vaporizer, very rarely, but it's manually heated with a pocket lighter. A bi-metal cap making a click sound when the right temperature is reached and then the taste/efficiency depends on how strong you draw. Looks like sucking on a crack pipe a little  Cheesy
You can vape tobacco too, but you have to manually clean it quite often.
At home i use the "volcano" table-top vaporizer. It's the best you can get, it's running almost daily for over 15 years now, just had to replace a broken switch two years ago. The best thing is, you can make hash-dope from the debris. Black, oily stuff which knocks you off your socks and also brown, dry hash with a lot of herb fiber.
I also make chocolate with the remaining herb, after vaping it twice, still has plenty of potency.
This way it also becomes three times cheaper to vape mary j.

Enuff with the offtopic now. Y'all know i'm a weed connoisseur, already  Grin

Yupp

A friend of mine from my old job started vaping instead of smoking. He got a cough so severe he had to pull over if he was driving because he was on the verge of blacking out (he's a lorry driver).
When he switched back to cigarettes the cough disappeared.
1303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 15, 2021, 08:58:03 PM
Was reading an article that estimated the top 1% of the worlds population own roughly 44.8% of the wealth.

Consider the following, there is currently 7.9Billion People and only 21Million BTC That is 0.002658227BTC Per Person...

Or is it....

1% = 79Million People
44.8% Bitcoin = 9,408,000BTC
0.119088607BTC for each of the Top 1%

Leaving....

99% = 7.821Billion People
55.2% Bitcoin = 11,592,000BTC
0.001482163BTC for each of the 99%

But.....

If you look at the remaining 99% closely, roughly 64% or 5.056Billion only control 2% of the worlds wealth or 420,000BTC

0.000083069 For each of the bottom 64%

Not taking into consideration any lost coins! The more variables we add the less and less Bitcoins Per Person....

Where above do you currently fit!....

It would just be matter a time, hold onto as many Bitcoins as you can! You are establishing your Generational Wealth!

Yes, it's called pareto distribution. Pertains to anything human. That's why Monopoly always end with one person owning everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZMBdRfbk6A
1304  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 10:51:27 PM
Any advice on how to stop Smoking Cigarettes?  Grin

Don't light the next one.
1305  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 08:10:08 PM
Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

You can hedge against the possibility. If you feel 50/50, then put 50% near the end of the cycle or where you predict it will end, and that is roughly about 18 to 24 months from now, or about a year before the next halving? There is no exact time frame, you'll have to make a guess or watch on-chain analytics and other data.

50% keep it in, so if the EOC does not happen, you can ride that part, but also don't put back in unless you are very sure the EOC did not happen and will not happen anymore.

That way, half is hedged when or if it happens, half is in if it does not happen.

I think it's different this time. A trillion dollars says it's different.

The next poll: is it different this time?
1306  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 01:14:17 PM
Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.
1307  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 01:04:23 PM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

That sounds like a terrible idea, to be honest. Firstly, with the amount of institutional capital flowing into btc recently, there's a significant possibility that its four year bear/bull market cycle could have been broken. All signs (other than looking backwards to historic patterns which in no way predict future patterns) point towards BTC making increasing gains - CBs printing fiat for fun and the associated incoming inflation; unsustainable stocks prices; major corporations holding btc on their balance sheets; governments probably doing the same; etc etc. The list goes on and these developments mean that btc is inhabiting a totally different place to where it was four years ago. It wouldn't be surprising to never see a btc bear market again - 80% dips could be a thing of the past, never to be seen again.

Also, trying to time the top is pretty much impossible and will only happen with a huge chunk of luck.

I wouldn't advise anyone to swap btc for stocks anytime, ever.

Nah, that's what people said alredy back in 2017 (including me) and we were all wrong, I have learned that "this time is different" doesn't exist.

About selling the top, You have to factor in that I bought around the 200-400 dollar range and selling at say 100k would give me a huge profit even if it then goes on to 200k.
My actual strategy is to sell chunks at preset numbers, starting with one fourth at 100k.
1308  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 12:57:22 PM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.

so the presence of institutional investors (not present in 2014 and 2018), plus the fact that both stocks and btc have risen in parallel for the last 12 months, means nothing to you? ok, each to his own.

No, it doesn't mean anything to me, the institutional investors are still few and they are most likely hodlers so their holdings won't significantly impact the bear year, and the fact that we have risen in parallel lately is just a coincidence where stonk uppity indicators and bitcoin uppity indicators happen to appear in the same time frame, with some overlapping of course, but not enough to say that they are intertwined.
1309  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 12:46:53 PM
With so many institutionals in now, they may attempt to dampen volatility, holding down tops, and holding up dumps..
They want less volatility and I wouldn’t doubt manipulate it so..

I.e. Might hold up the next bear season..

That is a possibility, but I don't think we are there yet, maybe next cycle.
1310  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 12:44:41 PM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Nah, even if the stonks should dump they probably won't dump as much as bitcoin traditionally does during the bear year.
1311  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 12:35:02 PM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

dont see any kind of scenario where bitcoin goes seriously bearish while stocks rise, or even stay stable.

if stocks fall, then yes i could see btc fall, but thats about it.

the idea that stocks are going to be some kind of hedge wont cut it for me.

Then let me remind you of 2014 and 2018.
Bitcoin moves in roughly four year cycles governed by the roughly four year halvings. Next bear year will be 2022, probably starting late 2021.
This is totally uncoupled from the stockmarket.
1312  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 12:01:23 PM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.

Sounds risky to me.

Can we please wait to dump those "shares" before telling the truth? Thank you very much.

Don't understand your reply, please clarify.
1313  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 10:52:03 AM
I love waking up to a new ATH, these super pump years every four years gives me such a rush.
Too bad the coming year, with it's year long dump, will do the opposite, or will it?
I will try to sell the top-ish and park the money in stocks for the coming bear year, let's see if that can't give some kind of similar feeling, at least it will hopefully lessen the "down" feeling (if I pick the right stocks).
I'm thinking something stable and somewhat boring, like Ericson.

Don't worry, it's only for a year, then I'll be all in on bitcoin again, just parking my money to save it from the bear year.
1314  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 08:18:58 PM
Why was it wet? did DHL drop it in a pool or something?
And how did it work once you got it going?

@ Searing
1315  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 07:50:25 PM
Should I quit my job?
Oh man, should we get into a 2015-like crypto winter you may want to reconsider that job, lol.

What I'd do is keep a stash of cash for at least 12-24mo of expenses on the side just in case BTC somehow screws up for a while and YOLO.

The crypto winter was 2014.
In 2015 the recovery started from a super dip below 200 USD in January, and ended over 450 USD in December, more then a doubling. That's not exactly a bear market.
1316  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 07:13:32 PM

So, I was listening to the song without really listening, just assumed it was Japanese, and then I thought I heard a familiar word and later another one, so I listened from the beginning and discovered that it's actually Swedish. Just a little evening reflection.

It's basically a  "clap your hands, don't miss the chance, come on dance" type lyric.
1317  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 12:18:30 PM
Actually guys, if you zoom out to the seven days chart you will find that the price have been going up with an average of 1000 plus BTC per day for the last five days, that's not bad at all, and definitely not sideways, even if it feels like that due to the wild oscillation.


1318  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 12:13:26 PM
Finally !!!

When you think about, look like obvious to crush the day right before the Coinbase's IPO.

Then I see 2 scenarios from tomorrow :

1/ We continue on this way and going REALLY up without significant corrections.

2/ We do the same, but we make a flash DIP ( a bit) below 60K  around the IPO time, to Rekt/ liquidate the last ones who must be Rekt.

Both case we go finally UP for a BIG NEXT LEG. Go BTC !!  Grin

So you are saying that the price will either go up or it will go down.
Let me, after having thunk hard, add another possibility: it might go sideways.
1319  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 09:37:01 AM
I see we are almost back to where we were a month ago, but this time we moved up slowly in small increments.
That's a good sign, it's more likely to stay stable that way and hopefully keep on slowly climbing up in a more sustainable way.
Although those 4k spikes does give you a nice rush.
1320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 09:26:34 AM
I'd welcome that, but i doubt it a little because derivatives are in play now.
They seem to keep down the price, but their effect will be meaningless when liquidity will be crunched.
I think it will happen, but not in the scope of weeks, more like around Q3/Q4.

I second that.
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